Joe Shearer
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Prashant is actually correct. Muslim rate of growth keeps dropping. Studies which state otherwise use a growth exponential in the 80s for the Muslims and extrapolate it for eternity.
I would like you to consider the following facts:
- The majority of Muslims live in north India; a minority live in south India. For the purposes of this analysis, I am ignoring Maharashtra and Gujarat on the one hand, and Bengal and Assam on the other; bear with me while I make my point.
- There is a larger proportion of Muslims in the north, compared to Muslims in the south. Compared to this proportion, the proportion of Hindus in the north to Hindus in the south is more balanced and not so skewed.
- The north is poorer than the south.
- It is an accepted population studies truism that people reproduce in larger numbers in greater conditions of poverty than when their condition improves. This is because of the harsh reality in poor countries, that people depend on their children for sustenance and livelihood in their old age; having more babies is an insurance policy against infant mortality, and a safety buffer ensuring that at least some, or one, child will survive to look after the parents.
- Therefore the rate of growth for poor people being different, the rate of growth for an entire community will be a composite of the rate of growth for the poorer people of that community and the corresponding figure for those who have become better off.
- Less Hindus live (as a proportion) in the poor north, compared to the better off south.Their composite rate is lower because the proportion of poorer people is lower.
- More Muslims live in the poor north, compared to the better off south. Their composite rate is higher because the proportion of poorer people is higher.
- As the Muslim poorest of the poor climb out of the poverty pit, their rate of growth will taper off.
- It is probable that the Hindu rate of growth will taper off faster.