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Analysis: What happened to Taliban unity?
FARHAN BOKHARI
Published 2014-04-13 07:22:17
As news of recent clashes between rival Taliban groups in Waziristan trickled out of the region this week, a former Pakistani intelligence official felt vindicated.
From the comfort of his sofa in a lavishly furnished upper-class home in Islamabad, the chain-smoking official on Saturday pronounced: “I had predicted this a long time back. These people [Taliban] cannot remain united for long. Sooner or later, they will turn against one another.”
For the intelligence official just like many other observers, the profound question now is indeed this one: are the Taliban capable of presenting a unified front to carry their rank and file along in a new peace process with the Pakistani state?
The fighting has already thrown up troubling questions over the future of an ongoing peace process involving the Taliban and the Pakistani state.
Rumours have swirled around it in abundance. Some believe the fighting is a flare-up between genuine rivals, while others argue the recent conflict was caused by one group of pro-Taliban tribesmen paid off by the Pakistani authorities to take up arms against another.
Amid the many conspiracy theories which have frequently revolved around Pakistan, the motive behind this latest round of fighting will likely remain another unsolved mystery.
But in the aftermath of this week’s bloodshed, the future of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s peace initiative with the Taliban looks further in doubt.
Just like many other Pakistanis, the former intelligence official from day one has questioned Mr Sharif’s logic for seeking peace with the Taliban.
Though ending the long-drawn conflict is indeed a noble objective in its own right, the ongoing fighting has raised the distinct possibility of divisions within the Taliban making it impossible to bring all the warring factions on a common platform. Mr Sharif made history in 2013 when he was elected prime minister for the third time, and began his tenure with promises of overseeing a peace process with the Taliban.
Yet, events under his watch have raised the question if the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, which claims to represent all the Taliban groups, is capable of speaking with one voice. By some accounts, the TTP consists of up to 60 factions including many with a history of holding a grudge or two against others.
All these groups may be bedfellows in following a common ideology. But their loyalties quickly fade away from a centralised leadership structure to their own local commanders who are practically their dons, once vested interests come into play.
In the past three-plus decades since Afghanistan became the centre of a global conflict beginning with the former Soviet Union’s invasion of Kabul and the birth of the legacy of ‘jihad’, leaders of militant groups across Afghanistan and Pakistan have become attuned to addictive clout.
To some of them, controlling territory in parts of the rugged terrain along the Afghan border is a vital incentive while others are comfortably hooked to their sprawling network of supporters across Pakistan including the perks and privileges which come along. Eventually, they will have to prove that they are willing to give up the good life before any conciliatory offer for peace from the Taliban can be taken seriously.
Accepting that the Taliban will act in good faith has become doubly difficult in the aftermath of the carnage caused by Wednesday’s attack at Islamabad’s main vegetable and fruit market which claimed 24 lives. The TTP denied involvement and condemned the attack while a separatist group from Balochistan claimed responsibility.
However, the popular belief notably among the many victims refuses to accept that the hands of the Taliban were clean in this tragedy. On Friday, Khurram Khan, a fruit vendor from Rawalpindi who returned to the market for the first time since the attack, echoed a wider view when he spoke to this writer. “The Taliban must be confronted to make Pakistan a safe place,” said Khan while holding his bandaged left arm in a sling in a powerful reminder of the way that popular opinion may have hardened further against hardcore militant zealots following Wednesday’s attack.
A broad spectrum of opinion across Pakistan’s grass roots continues to be visibly sceptical of the Taliban and their view of the world, notwithstanding their efficient propaganda machinery which frequently seeks to prove otherwise.
According to retired Major General Mehmood Durrani, who previously served as the national security adviser to prime minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, “The Taliban and the people of Pakistan have two different visions. The people of Pakistan want to live under their constitution as a democratic country and not a country ruled by the Taliban”.
He said the memories of Taliban rule over Afghanistan in the 1990s are still vivid in the minds of many Pakistanis to cause discomfort among the mainstream population.
For the former intelligence official in Islamabad who continues to closely watch for evidence of future infighting among the Taliban after the latest infighting, there is a key question going forward. “They (Taliban) are not necessarily the most popular force in our country. But now, I want to know if Pakistan can continue to talk to them and take them seriously as a unified force.”
Farhan Bokhari is an Islamabad-based journalist who writes on politics, economy and security issues.
FARHAN BOKHARI
Published 2014-04-13 07:22:17
As news of recent clashes between rival Taliban groups in Waziristan trickled out of the region this week, a former Pakistani intelligence official felt vindicated.
From the comfort of his sofa in a lavishly furnished upper-class home in Islamabad, the chain-smoking official on Saturday pronounced: “I had predicted this a long time back. These people [Taliban] cannot remain united for long. Sooner or later, they will turn against one another.”
For the intelligence official just like many other observers, the profound question now is indeed this one: are the Taliban capable of presenting a unified front to carry their rank and file along in a new peace process with the Pakistani state?
The fighting has already thrown up troubling questions over the future of an ongoing peace process involving the Taliban and the Pakistani state.
Rumours have swirled around it in abundance. Some believe the fighting is a flare-up between genuine rivals, while others argue the recent conflict was caused by one group of pro-Taliban tribesmen paid off by the Pakistani authorities to take up arms against another.
Amid the many conspiracy theories which have frequently revolved around Pakistan, the motive behind this latest round of fighting will likely remain another unsolved mystery.
But in the aftermath of this week’s bloodshed, the future of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s peace initiative with the Taliban looks further in doubt.
Just like many other Pakistanis, the former intelligence official from day one has questioned Mr Sharif’s logic for seeking peace with the Taliban.
Though ending the long-drawn conflict is indeed a noble objective in its own right, the ongoing fighting has raised the distinct possibility of divisions within the Taliban making it impossible to bring all the warring factions on a common platform. Mr Sharif made history in 2013 when he was elected prime minister for the third time, and began his tenure with promises of overseeing a peace process with the Taliban.
Yet, events under his watch have raised the question if the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, which claims to represent all the Taliban groups, is capable of speaking with one voice. By some accounts, the TTP consists of up to 60 factions including many with a history of holding a grudge or two against others.
All these groups may be bedfellows in following a common ideology. But their loyalties quickly fade away from a centralised leadership structure to their own local commanders who are practically their dons, once vested interests come into play.
In the past three-plus decades since Afghanistan became the centre of a global conflict beginning with the former Soviet Union’s invasion of Kabul and the birth of the legacy of ‘jihad’, leaders of militant groups across Afghanistan and Pakistan have become attuned to addictive clout.
To some of them, controlling territory in parts of the rugged terrain along the Afghan border is a vital incentive while others are comfortably hooked to their sprawling network of supporters across Pakistan including the perks and privileges which come along. Eventually, they will have to prove that they are willing to give up the good life before any conciliatory offer for peace from the Taliban can be taken seriously.
Accepting that the Taliban will act in good faith has become doubly difficult in the aftermath of the carnage caused by Wednesday’s attack at Islamabad’s main vegetable and fruit market which claimed 24 lives. The TTP denied involvement and condemned the attack while a separatist group from Balochistan claimed responsibility.
However, the popular belief notably among the many victims refuses to accept that the hands of the Taliban were clean in this tragedy. On Friday, Khurram Khan, a fruit vendor from Rawalpindi who returned to the market for the first time since the attack, echoed a wider view when he spoke to this writer. “The Taliban must be confronted to make Pakistan a safe place,” said Khan while holding his bandaged left arm in a sling in a powerful reminder of the way that popular opinion may have hardened further against hardcore militant zealots following Wednesday’s attack.
A broad spectrum of opinion across Pakistan’s grass roots continues to be visibly sceptical of the Taliban and their view of the world, notwithstanding their efficient propaganda machinery which frequently seeks to prove otherwise.
According to retired Major General Mehmood Durrani, who previously served as the national security adviser to prime minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, “The Taliban and the people of Pakistan have two different visions. The people of Pakistan want to live under their constitution as a democratic country and not a country ruled by the Taliban”.
He said the memories of Taliban rule over Afghanistan in the 1990s are still vivid in the minds of many Pakistanis to cause discomfort among the mainstream population.
For the former intelligence official in Islamabad who continues to closely watch for evidence of future infighting among the Taliban after the latest infighting, there is a key question going forward. “They (Taliban) are not necessarily the most popular force in our country. But now, I want to know if Pakistan can continue to talk to them and take them seriously as a unified force.”
Farhan Bokhari is an Islamabad-based journalist who writes on politics, economy and security issues.