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ANALYSIS
Date Posted: 21-Dec-2009
Jane's Defence Weekly
Analysis: Pakistan focuses on anti-Taliban campaign
As the US deploys additional troops to Afghanistan, Pakistan has started securing its border regions in an attempt to weaken the Taliban. Farhan Bokhari reports
As the US military prepares to deploy thousands of additional troops in Afghanistan, Pakistan has quietly widened a two-month campaign targeting Taliban strongholds in its south Waziristan region near the Afghan border.
Following US President Barack Obama's newly announced strategy to secure Afghanistan, Pakistan finds itself additionally compelled to secure its border region, which has been singled out by US officials as a key area from where the Taliban operate.
Speaking to journalists in Lahore on 12 December, Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani said "the operation has finished in south Waziristan". He was referring to a campaign that began two months ago, aimed at destroying the main centres of Taliban congregation.
In proclaiming an end to the south Waziristan campaign, Gilani was apparently referring to the conclusion of the military effort aimed at taking charge of the main Taliban centres of activity.
It was left to security officials to clarify later that Gilani was only referring to an end to frontal attacks by the military on suspected Taliban sanctuaries, rather than suggesting an end to the military's presence in the area.
"The troops are still present in south Waziristan and there is no question of conclusively ending such an operation right now. The phase of active combat may be less intense but there is no withdrawal under consideration," one senior security official told Jane's .
He added: "Our units will remain deployed in south Waziristan and we will stay there until we are certain that the Taliban are not in a position to regroup."
South Waziristan has remained a key hub of Taliban activity from where they have launched scores of suicide and armed attacks across Pakistan in the past two years.
Shortly after Gilani spoke, senior security officials also said that a military campaign in the regions of Orakzai and Kurram - two additional areas of Taliban activism - was becoming increasingly intense, indicating a widening focus by the Pakistani military in the border region.
Pakistan appears eager to step up its attacks on Taliban militants, ahead of a surge in the number of US troops deployed across its border with Afghanistan.
Pakistani officials believe that the risk for their country comes mainly from a growing danger of Afghanistan-based US troops increasing the number of drone attacks into Pakistani territory, possibly backed by occasional ground incursions at Taliban targets.
A Pakistani foreign ministry diplomat, speaking to Jane's on condition of anonymity, said: "Our assessment is that US troops across the border will be tempted to strike directly at what they consider to be militant sanctuaries on our side of the border. It is therefore vital that we take full charge of our country before the Americans see a gap that they may want to fill."
For the moment, it appears unlikely that the US will retreat from the use of drones attacking suspected targets on Pakistani soil, especially as their use has sometimes successfully hit high profile terrorists.
On 8 December Saleh al-Somali, a key Al-Qaeda member of Somalian origin, was killed in a US drone strike targeting a location inside Pakistan's border with Afghanistan in the north west frontier province. The use of such drones has already become more frequent since Obama took charge in early 2009.
While in some respects Pakistan and the US may be on a potential collision course, especially if the troop surge in Afghanistan leads to US military incursions inside Pakistan, it is equally true that the country has fast emerged as Washington's exclusive regional ally for stabilising Afghanistan.
In a year when Pakistan has demonstrated its growing determination to fight the Taliban, notably by first attacking their sanctuaries in the northern Swat region ahead of the ongoing campaign near the Afghan border, Pakistani policy makers have put down an established track record of confronting the Taliban.
In seeking to secure Afghanistan, Obama faces the additional complication which is that the Afghan campaign can neither be open ended, nor undertaken in a way that allows the US to conveniently pass on the entire responsibility for Afghan security to another player, such as a future Afghan National Army (ANA).
Some experts believe it will be several years before the ANA begins to operate like an organised force that could offer even a remote hope of confronting an enemy like the Taliban, who have a history of employing guerrilla-type tactics in their attacks.
While US officials recognise Pakistan's centrality as a key ally in efforts to stabilise Afghanistan and its hardened policy against the Taliban in 2009, they also note that the conflict is likely to become more intense in 2010 before conditions begin settling down. A US troop surge is set to target Taliban strongholds inside Afghanistan in ways that the militant movement has not been hit before.
A consequence of a stronger push against the Taliban will be a likely increase in their attacks on various targets, notably military-related targets inside Pakistan. In the past three months, Islamic militants have attacked otherwise apparently well-protected locations such as the army's general headquarters and a mosque in Rawalpindi, frequented by army officers and their family members.
For Washington, the choice of taking further unilateral action inside Pakistan - be it through more drone attacks or ground incursions - steps up the risk of disrupting its alliance with Pakistan. It is a risk that may leave the US without the backing of its only ally in the region surrounding Afghanistan capable of taking up Washington's security obligations over time.
For Pakistan itself, the policy shift of the past year of tackling the Taliban along the Afghan border needs to be followed through with other effective actions, such as confronting similar militant groups in parts of the populous Punjab province.
The country's ruling coalition also needs to put together a long-term and concerted strategy that seeks the broad backing of the Pakistani public in dealing with terrorism and militancy.
In the ultimate analysis, both Pakistan and the US face a major dilemma.
However, more pressure from Washington for Pakistan to take further action at a rapid pace will likely be resisted by Islamabad and raises the spectre of disruption for a carefully built alliance.
Farhan Bokhari is a JDW Correspondent based in Islamabad
Date Posted: 21-Dec-2009
Jane's Defence Weekly
Analysis: Pakistan focuses on anti-Taliban campaign
As the US deploys additional troops to Afghanistan, Pakistan has started securing its border regions in an attempt to weaken the Taliban. Farhan Bokhari reports
As the US military prepares to deploy thousands of additional troops in Afghanistan, Pakistan has quietly widened a two-month campaign targeting Taliban strongholds in its south Waziristan region near the Afghan border.
Following US President Barack Obama's newly announced strategy to secure Afghanistan, Pakistan finds itself additionally compelled to secure its border region, which has been singled out by US officials as a key area from where the Taliban operate.
Speaking to journalists in Lahore on 12 December, Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani said "the operation has finished in south Waziristan". He was referring to a campaign that began two months ago, aimed at destroying the main centres of Taliban congregation.
In proclaiming an end to the south Waziristan campaign, Gilani was apparently referring to the conclusion of the military effort aimed at taking charge of the main Taliban centres of activity.
It was left to security officials to clarify later that Gilani was only referring to an end to frontal attacks by the military on suspected Taliban sanctuaries, rather than suggesting an end to the military's presence in the area.
"The troops are still present in south Waziristan and there is no question of conclusively ending such an operation right now. The phase of active combat may be less intense but there is no withdrawal under consideration," one senior security official told Jane's .
He added: "Our units will remain deployed in south Waziristan and we will stay there until we are certain that the Taliban are not in a position to regroup."
South Waziristan has remained a key hub of Taliban activity from where they have launched scores of suicide and armed attacks across Pakistan in the past two years.
Shortly after Gilani spoke, senior security officials also said that a military campaign in the regions of Orakzai and Kurram - two additional areas of Taliban activism - was becoming increasingly intense, indicating a widening focus by the Pakistani military in the border region.
Pakistan appears eager to step up its attacks on Taliban militants, ahead of a surge in the number of US troops deployed across its border with Afghanistan.
Pakistani officials believe that the risk for their country comes mainly from a growing danger of Afghanistan-based US troops increasing the number of drone attacks into Pakistani territory, possibly backed by occasional ground incursions at Taliban targets.
A Pakistani foreign ministry diplomat, speaking to Jane's on condition of anonymity, said: "Our assessment is that US troops across the border will be tempted to strike directly at what they consider to be militant sanctuaries on our side of the border. It is therefore vital that we take full charge of our country before the Americans see a gap that they may want to fill."
For the moment, it appears unlikely that the US will retreat from the use of drones attacking suspected targets on Pakistani soil, especially as their use has sometimes successfully hit high profile terrorists.
On 8 December Saleh al-Somali, a key Al-Qaeda member of Somalian origin, was killed in a US drone strike targeting a location inside Pakistan's border with Afghanistan in the north west frontier province. The use of such drones has already become more frequent since Obama took charge in early 2009.
While in some respects Pakistan and the US may be on a potential collision course, especially if the troop surge in Afghanistan leads to US military incursions inside Pakistan, it is equally true that the country has fast emerged as Washington's exclusive regional ally for stabilising Afghanistan.
In a year when Pakistan has demonstrated its growing determination to fight the Taliban, notably by first attacking their sanctuaries in the northern Swat region ahead of the ongoing campaign near the Afghan border, Pakistani policy makers have put down an established track record of confronting the Taliban.
In seeking to secure Afghanistan, Obama faces the additional complication which is that the Afghan campaign can neither be open ended, nor undertaken in a way that allows the US to conveniently pass on the entire responsibility for Afghan security to another player, such as a future Afghan National Army (ANA).
Some experts believe it will be several years before the ANA begins to operate like an organised force that could offer even a remote hope of confronting an enemy like the Taliban, who have a history of employing guerrilla-type tactics in their attacks.
While US officials recognise Pakistan's centrality as a key ally in efforts to stabilise Afghanistan and its hardened policy against the Taliban in 2009, they also note that the conflict is likely to become more intense in 2010 before conditions begin settling down. A US troop surge is set to target Taliban strongholds inside Afghanistan in ways that the militant movement has not been hit before.
A consequence of a stronger push against the Taliban will be a likely increase in their attacks on various targets, notably military-related targets inside Pakistan. In the past three months, Islamic militants have attacked otherwise apparently well-protected locations such as the army's general headquarters and a mosque in Rawalpindi, frequented by army officers and their family members.
For Washington, the choice of taking further unilateral action inside Pakistan - be it through more drone attacks or ground incursions - steps up the risk of disrupting its alliance with Pakistan. It is a risk that may leave the US without the backing of its only ally in the region surrounding Afghanistan capable of taking up Washington's security obligations over time.
For Pakistan itself, the policy shift of the past year of tackling the Taliban along the Afghan border needs to be followed through with other effective actions, such as confronting similar militant groups in parts of the populous Punjab province.
The country's ruling coalition also needs to put together a long-term and concerted strategy that seeks the broad backing of the Pakistani public in dealing with terrorism and militancy.
In the ultimate analysis, both Pakistan and the US face a major dilemma.
However, more pressure from Washington for Pakistan to take further action at a rapid pace will likely be resisted by Islamabad and raises the spectre of disruption for a carefully built alliance.
Farhan Bokhari is a JDW Correspondent based in Islamabad
