ANALYSIS - Bangladesh’s act of balancing Asian giant foes

[Sehnsucht]

However in future I propose another damn like farakka so that Bangladesh can control water too . Every years they flood us by opening farakka gates . if we build another damn , and close the gates I think the flood waters wil remain in India instead of cause flood in Bangladesh . I think @bluesky can write something about it . Please @bluesky write something about my Idea . can not we give India same treatment that India is giving us ?

Seconded. @bluesky Vai, if you would.
How feasible is the idea, current regime notwithstanding? Will it affect the ecosystem negatively? What are the pros & cons? What kind of reaction might we expect from Bharat & how should we act in that case?

Indeed Bharat won't do anything to defend that.

Bharat will certainly try of course.It'd be stupid to ever think they won't.

@Atlas vai can you open a thread about Shiliguri corridor, it's potential & strategic value in a BD-India conflict? I'd do it myself but afraid my knowledge about it is sorely lacking.

 

[Sine Nomine]

Bharat will certainly try of course.It'd be stupid to ever think they won't.

They have lot of experience in building fortifications and defending them,they have been fighting with Pakistan in Kashmir from fortifications since past 70 years.They would just fortify whole area by digging trenches,making bunkers and deploying HMG's,Arty,Motors and ATGM's in support of their defence.
You would need 10 soldiers for each of their's.
You guys should think out of box.

 

[Michael Corleone]

If you have to get close to west,west will push you towards India.

Not necessarily. India can’t afford to lose Russia, so I don’t see it that way

 

[Haris Ali2140]

Not necessarily. India can’t afford to lose Russia, so I don’t see it that way

But Russia is already gone from Indian camp.

 

[Species]

why dont bought it yourselves? Why must using India hands?

I could be wrong but from what I have been observing, Bangladesh is in a strategic decline since 2009 when the military began to lose its strategic autonomy and influence. By the term strategic decline I'm specifically referring to the willingness of our leadership to assert our sovereignty. This is quite evident on Bangladesh's current stance and actions in the disputes with both India and Myanmar.

 

[VikingRaider]

Bharat will certainly try of course.It'd be stupid to ever think they won't.

@Atlas vai can you open a thread about Shiliguri corridor, it's potential & strategic value in a BD-India conflict? I'd do it myself but afraid my knowledge about it is sorely lacking.

Amio beshi kichu jani na re vai . Just chokh kan khola rekhe dekhen . This a matter of common sense .This is just 18/20 km and it's not plain area . With this corridor they can not move mass army to protect NE . Look why they ask transit from us ? Because their cost is huge when keep contact with NE !
And also they can not move n mass army from NE too . This video may help you .

Also please start reading this series ( 3 years old ) . Although Do not agree with many posts of this page , yet this analysis related to India is useful and nice IMHO.

You can search this page for more India related topic . Actually fear is the key to divide and rule , and exactly Indian media do so in order to control this region . They try to show India in such high where they maybe never reach easily.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1471262072937111

@Petrichor

ps: Just eitai request kori vai , do not fear India . If we fear them , they will divide and rules us , as they are doing . first let them feed their own people properly , then pay attention to their rant .

 

[loanranger]

Indeed vai

Start saying bhai if you want to get hold of Indias neck.

 

[Michael Corleone]

But Russia is already gone from Indian camp.

Not necessarily. They still need to sell to India and India still needs most of their weapons from them.

 

[mb444]

Can china be trusted with anything given BDs strategic requirement in case of a war. The rohingya debacle proves not.

In a situation with india will china jeopardise its multibillion economic ties with india....i would say no.

Will BD risk supporting china in a china-india conflagration......we would be mad to do so....
Would we support India....again mad to do so...

Bottom line BD can not hitch its wagon to anyone...

We are on our own. Better just manage the links and balance as best we can until we are strong enough.

I am against placement of indian raders ....however in any conflagration with india. BD will simply cut the links and stop sharing data. Worst case scenario just turn it off... its a two edged sword for both country....i am assuming BN do not have full coverage of the Bay...we get that capacity. It will help with help us monitor the bay....no indian intrusion either.

Chinas support for monkeys is the loss of operational freedom in the bay.....indias support for the Myanmar is loss of operational freedom in the bay....bangladeshs inability and incompetence in the rohingya debacle is the loss of operational freedom and sovereignty in the bay....

Proper clusterfuck.....only good thing of sorts is that bay in some manner neutralised as a strategic theatre. Looking at the positive it may allow us to sort out the piracy and illigal fishing issue.

But in any way we look this is an infringement on BD sovereignty....

 

[Realtalk108]

This is just 18/20 km and it's not plain area

It's a completely plain area and there are two railway lines and two major highways through it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Highway_27_(India)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Highway_317_(India)

At 2:13 min mark in the video - "মাত্র ২২ কিলোমিটার প্রশস্ত এই সরু প্যাসেজটি এতই দুর্গম যে এর ভেতর দিয়ে বড় কোন রাস্তা বা স্থলযোগাযোগ ব্যবস্থা গড়ে তোলা সম্ভব হয়নি।"

Amio beshi kichu jani na re vai

Truer words have never been spoken, 'Atlas'.

 

[VikingRaider]

It's a completely plain area and there are two railway lines and two major highways through it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Highway_27_(India)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Highway_317_(India)

At 2:13 min mark in the video - "মাত্র ২২ কিলোমিটার প্রশস্ত এই সরু প্যাসেজটি এতই দুর্গম যে এর ভেতর দিয়ে বড় কোন রাস্তা বা স্থলযোগাযোগ ব্যবস্থা গড়ে তোলা সম্ভব হয়নি।"





Truer words have never been spoken, 'Atlas'.

Can you move mass army via chicken neck? Can you really launch a mass attack on us from three side? Even can you move all of your army against us? Think deeply before laughing lol.

Why do your Govt need transit through Bangladesh then? Because you have only 22 km chicken neck to spend supplies and army to the seven sisters states!

However I am not taking the video as gospel truth. But your chicken neck is only 22 km and not very effective to move mass troops if you ever decide to move army against us!

However read this....

https://thediplomat.com/2013/11/geographys-curse-indias-vulnerable-chickens-neck/

 

[Realtalk108]

Can you move mass army via chicken neck if there is a military blockade?

Depends. Can BD successfully block that spot?

Can you really launch a mass attack on us from three side? Even can you move all of your army against us? Think deeply before laughing lol.

Yes and yes. We have done it before.

But the question is - Why shall we?

Why do your Govt need transit through Bangladesh then?

For regular freight. Because it's a shorter distance and that makes it cheaper to transport goods, duh!

You seem to think we are asking transit for military supplies. We aren't. We are asking it for regular freight. Military supply volumes are trivial in comparison with regular freight in any country.

And we don't even need to immediately move any supplies in case of a hypothetical BD-India war. Military supplies are already stocked up there. NE India is one of the most heavily defended part of India due to the threat from China. Has been so since 1962.

What? Did you think NE India is currently lying empty? Without any Indian army presence?

More on this transit thing - I don't think India is particularly bothered about it anymore. NE India is very sparsely populated. And since 2000 India has vastly improved the infrastructure there. It would be nice to have. But we can live without it, as we have been managing for last 70 years.

https://thediplomat.com/2013/11/geographys-curse-indias-vulnerable-chickens-neck/

Silliguri corridor is vulnerable from China. Not you. Because firstly India doesn't think BD has the military capacity to block it and secondly, and more importantly, why would it? There is no territorial dispute between BD and India. There are/were only 3 outstanding problems -

1. The Chitmahal/enclaves issue - This one has been sorted out.
2. Water sharing issue - Negotiations ongoing and will be resolved sooner or later like it was done between India-Pakistan.
3. Border management - 95% of the border is now fenced. As both countries economies improve it will gradually cool down.

BD's largest industry is garments. India supplies 45% of BD's raw cotton import. If BD picks up a fight with India that will only hurt its own interest. Even BNP knows that.

 

[bluesky]

You forgot Andaman Islands.

Yes, Andaman and Nicobar island group is so east from India that Indian naval officers can virtually see any ship movements in the Indian Ocean without using a binocular. Yet, this power-hungry Hasina Bibi willingly accepted Indian radars.

The impact of the Battle of Plassey was not felt immediately. People thought one Nawab was removed and replaced with another Nawab. The impact was felt hard after 8 years at the battle of Buxer. I feel that radar is the first step against the sovereignty of Bangladesh and the effect will be felt in the coming years. Yet, Hasina signed it only because of her greed to remain the Nawab.

I have read several newspaper accounts. They could not specify if the radars will be maneuvered by the BN or IN. If it is BN I have not a very strong objection. Also, for now, it is only an MoU or Memorandum of Understanding and not a Treaty.

 

[Bilal9]

So why India will take any risk to mass army movement against Bangladesh when in war time we can cut their supply line of NE from mainland by imposing a blockade in Shiliguri corridor?

Yes and yes. We have done it before.

You had done it when you had our expressed support. And only after we did 90% of the work for you fighting the Pakistanis using attrition tactics. Your army waited in the wings until things dried up in December 1971. In the monsoons, your army would meet its watery end. The Pakistanis were also sequestered in the various cantonments with rare operational forays in the wet season.

Still there were areas in Bangladesh (e.g. Tangail area, Kaderiya Bahini) where Indian para-commandos would not dare get dropped.

My older family members had first-hand contact with Indian command and troops in 1971 and unfortunately they did not think very highly of them compared to Pakistani troops. No offense.

Frankly, Indian troops were lacking in training, discipline as well as quality of armaments. Things may have changed though now, but so did the armed forces of Bangladesh and Pakistan.

 

[bluesky]

However in future I propose another damn like farakka so that Bangladesh can control water too . Every years they flood us by opening farakka gates . if we build another damn , and close the gates I think the flood waters wil remain in India instead of cause flood in Bangladesh . I think @bluesky can write something about it . Please @bluesky write something about my Idea . can not we give India same treatment that India is giving us ?

মিয়াঁ সাহেব আপনি কি ছোটবেলায় পড়া বাঘ আর ছাগশিশুর গল্পটা ভুইল্যা গ্যাছেন? বাঘ বাবাজি পাহাড়ে স্রোতের উপর দিকে আর ছাগশিশু হইলো নিচে পানি পান করতাছে। বাঘে কয় এই ব্যাটা তুই আমার পানি ঘোলা করতাছস। ছাগশিশু কয় হুজুর বাবাজি আমি তো নিচে আর আপনি হইলেন গিয়া উপরে আমি ক্যামনে ঘোলা করলাম।

বাঘে কয় কথা ঠিক তাইলে তুই গ্যালো বছর এই অকামটা করছস। ছাগশিশু কয় হুজুর গ্যালো বছর তো আমার জন্মই হয় নাই। বাঘে কয় কিরে ব্যাটা আবার কতা কস তোর সাহস তো কম না? গত বছর তুই না হইলে তোর বাপে আমার পানি ঘোলা করছিলো। কইয়াই বাঘে ছাগশিশুরে ধইরা খাইয়া ফালাইলো।
We are a downstream country like goat and India an upper stream one like that tiger. We cannot really build a barrage to stop water to flow to India. India plays a tiger and we have to play a goat. However, we have other options as you said. That is the Siliguri option at a time when there is a China-India conflict.

However, BD cannot do it successfully as its military is weak. A misadventure would cause it to lose its independence and to the status of a client state by agreement and treaty. However, the Hasina policy itself has downgraded the status already. We need personalities like Mujib, Zia or Moeen instead of the two bickering Begums.

Indeed vai.Shiliguri corridor isn't known as India's Chicken's neck for nothing.

Indeed Bharat won't do anything to defend that.