I don't understand why still there is a confusion among members regarding IK as PM ..let me paste my calculation here as well:
PTI and smaller parties:
116(PTI) + 4 (PMLQ) + 2 (GDA) + 6 (MQM) + 4 (BAP) + 13 (INDP) + 1 (AML) =
146
But candidates with multiple seats will reduced PTI and allied count to = 6 (PTI) + 2 (Ch. Elahi) =
138
Seats on Quota: [ in total there are 70 reserved seats]
PTI is expected to get 29 reserved seats i.e. 25 (women) + 4 (minorities) = 29
MQM-P = 1
BAP = 1
GDA + AML + PMLQ = 0
Grand Total of PTI led coliation = 135 + 29 + 1 = 169
Grand Opposition:
64 (PMLN) + 43 (PPP) + 13 (MMA) + 2 (BNP) + 1 (JWP) + 1 (ANP) =
124
Hamza Sharif will leave his MNA seat as well so Opposition final count will likely be
= 123
Seats on Quota:
PMLN : 16
PPP : 10
BNP : 0
MMA : 3
Grand total of opposition = 123 + 16 + 10 + 0 + 3 = 152
*For every 4 NA seats, 1 NA reserved seat is allocated to a party. As per my info.
*
Btw my calculation considers a scenario where all the 13 INDPs backs IK as PM. So far 6 NA INDPs have already joined PTI officially. 7 still remaining but PTI is claiming they have their support as well but don't have concrete evidence on it as yet. While not a single INDP NA has joined Opposition as per any news.
*Jehanghir Tareen claimed two days back that 5 are confirmed and they will get the support of atleast 10 to 11 indps so final pti led coalition count will be 167. If BNP votes for IK than count will be 169...not sure about JWP, they have 1 seat too.
*
IK is set to become PM on 2nd voting. If BNP and JWP also vote for IK than he may well become PM on 1st round of voting itself but for that he also needs support of all the 13 INDPs.
*
Also there is one technical issue, elections were held on 270 seats not 272 so final cut off number is 171, not 172 for first round of voting.
Meanwhile, 1 more PML-N NA seat gone now :
https://www.dawn.com/news/1424604/ecp-set-to-void-two-polls-over-low-women-turnout
Although speakers and deputy speakers voting are held in secrecy,unlike PM and CM voting, there is no chance of upset infact some of the PMLN winners may vote for PTI speaker, if rumors regarding foward block are true.
Just one problem or you can say election for President where NA, all the provisional assemblies and Senate will be voting for the President seat together. In Senate, PTI doesn't has the numbers but their strong presence in NA, with reservation quota, will just might help them to get the president from their party as well.
