The Deterrent
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I would like to quote one of the comments posted there:
One of the obvious weak points for ICBM-deployed conventional munitions is the inherent CEP of the system. These are not "smart bombs". They have a "dumb" ballistic trajectory that ensures a probable hit within radius of hundreds of meters of the nominal target. There are no terminal guidance devices like you see on the "sexy" smart-bombs like JDAM or Paveway with CEP's in the inches. Its pretty much an unguided weapon after the warhead is released from the suborbital bus package.
Another disadvantage is the throw weight. These systems are only capable of carrying so much into a suborbital ballistic trajectory. Most systems are around 2000-4000 pounds, and the LGM-118(MX) being around 9000 pounds, but its being phased out, if it hasn't been already.
So, using the GBU-43/B MOAB (22000 pounds) as a benchmark, with a 140 meter kill radius, we could expect, out of a 2500 pound warhead of similar manufacture, perhaps a 75 meter kill radius optimally - on a LGM-30G(Minuteman III), which has a CEP of about 100 meters. So, 25 percent of the time, the target is going to be outside of the kill radius, even if the warhead is delivered optimally. Keep in mind CEP is a 50 percent chance of getting within the given distance from the target for any given deployment. Do the math. That's a 12.5 percent chance of a kill. And that's a soft-target kill like an infantry formation, POL depot, city block, etc. Forget any kind hard-target kills like bunkers or prepared formations.
We haven't even factored in fusing errors... the warhead is traveling at about 12000 miles per hour. A second at that speed is the difference between 17000 feet and pancake in the dirt.
However, US Navy & Lockheed Martin can't be taken lightly. They must have found a way to increase re-entry stability (probably a fundamental change in the design) and give an even lower/depressed trajectory to the system. Looking forward keenly to the first test flight of this system.