After US offers, India finds itself at crossroads

[Juggernautjatt]

After US offers, India finds itself at crossroads
Ajay Banerjee
Tribune News Service

New Delhi, August 10
A promising offer from the United States to co-produce and co-develop military equipment and a suggestion for a trilateral military alliance to include Japan, leave India at a crossroads.

Some hard-nosed decision making will be needed on how New Delhi accepts the US offers without seeming to move away from Russia or even remotely looking like a 'cat's paw' for America in the region. In other words, a fine balance has to be struck between the US and Japan on one side and Russia and China on the other side - a balance that could put the Indian diplomacy to test.

US Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel, who ended his three-day visit to India yesterday, raised two specific issues. First, he showed keenness to co-produce military equipment, unfettered access to technology that is reserved for countries like UK, Canada or Australia. Second, he asked India to make a strategic shift and forge a trilateral alliance with the US and Japan, buttressing it with "as the US and Indian security interests converge, so should our partnerships with other nations".

In case New Delhi accepts this, it will have to be seen equidistant from the decades-old Japan-China acrimony. Japan has given some major infrastructure like the Delhi Metro and the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC). What India awaits is Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's plan of shifting the thousands of Japanese factories in China to India along the upcoming DMIC and also the Chennai Bangalore Industrial Corridor (CBIC).

Former Defence Minister AK Antony was not so keen on co-development ties with the US but had allowed purchase of specialised planes, the C-17 and the C-130-J for the Indian Air Force and the Boeing P8-I for the Navy. After 2008, the US won military contracts worth military $9 billion (approx Rs 54,000 crore). Al those years when India was in the Soviet Union bloc during the Cold War, the US did business worth only $ 500 million (Some Rs 3,000 crore at today's value).

Between 2009 and 2013, India imported 14 per cent of all global arms sold and Russia accounted for 79 per cent of those supplies, said the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in its March 2014 report 'trends in international arms transfers for the period 2009-1013'. India has joint development project with Russia, France and Israel. The US has offered a similar tie-up. India may find it tough to sever its umbilical cord from Russia. As of today projects worth $39 billion are in the pipeline with Moscow including co-development of the next generation of fighter jets. The Russia has helped New Delhi in its indigenous nuclear submarine, the Arihant.

At its launch in 2009, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was candid: "I would like to express our appreciation to our Russian friends for their invaluable cooperation". Moscow has also leased out a nuclear submarine, the Chakra. Long standing ties with Russia means India has more often than not voted along pro-Moscow line at the international forum, recently on the conflict in Ukraine.

Antony's successor Arun Jaitley, carries no such baggage or history of dithering on deeper ties with the US, rather by raising the level of foreign direct investment, to allow foreign firms to hold 49 per cent stake in military equipment-producing firms, he has sent out a signal. New Delhi will also be looking to factor in apprehensions and looking for assurance that no hurdle shall be placed at the behest of altered US interests.

Indian diplomacy faces litmus test

• • US Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel has showed keenness to co-produce military equipment and forge a trilateral alliance involving the US, India and Japan
  • New Delhi has to accept the US offers without seeming to move away from Russia or even remotely looking like a 'cat's paw' for America in the region
  • India will have to take into account the decades-old Japan-China acrimony before entering into any military alliance with Tokyo
  • India may find it tough to sever its umbilical cord from Russia. As of today projects worth $39 bn are in the pipeline with Moscow including co-development of the next generation of fighter jets.

 

[Sam Manekshaw]

Why to worry?...Russia is all weather frnd and USA is just a defence partner...Chuck Hagel also quote the same that India don't have to choose between China/Russia and USA.

 

[greatone]

Thanks for an interesting article.
Can you provide the link pls

We are the balancing force caught in the crossfire of two great powers.
By 2040 the three countries with highest defense budgets will be US China and India.Every other country will be much behind these three.


Though the policy of non alignment can only serve us well by helping us to get some concessions from both sides I think sooner or later we will have to choose a side.


The article raises the need to make a very difficult decision for India in the future.
I foresee that the stronger India becomes on the global stage, the more pressure it will face to "pick" a side in the upcoming cold war of sorts.

Indian strategy makers should start gaming out all the different scenarios and pick a winner.
I don't think we can afford to sit on the sidelines much longer.
We will simply be too big and too important on the world stage not to take sides.

 

[third eye]

Thanks for an interesting article.
Can you provide the link pls

We are the balancing force caught in the crossfire of two great powers.
By 2040 the three countries with highest defense budgets will be US China and India.Every other country will be much behind these three.


Though the policy of non alignment can only serve us well by helping us to get some concessions from both sides I think sooner or later we will have to choose a side.


The article raises the need to make a very difficult decision for India in the future.
I foresee that the stronger India becomes on the global stage, the more pressure it will face to "pick" a side in the upcoming cold war of sorts.

Indian strategy makers should start gaming out all the different scenarios and pick a winner.
I don't think we can afford to sit on the sidelines much longer.
We will simply be too big and too important on the world stage not to take sides.

We are not a balancing force & neither should we see ourselves as such. We are just an underdeveloped nation striving to improve. The power blocks of the world should not mean anything to us.

We need to focus upon ourselves and protect our long & short term interests.

Neither do we need to take sides - no nation that has strong feet needs a crutch. Whatever suits our interests should matter to us .

 

[Echo_419]

After US offers, India finds itself at crossroads
Ajay Banerjee
Tribune News Service

New Delhi, August 10
A promising offer from the United States to co-produce and co-develop military equipment and a suggestion for a trilateral military alliance to include Japan, leave India at a crossroads.

Some hard-nosed decision making will be needed on how New Delhi accepts the US offers without seeming to move away from Russia or even remotely looking like a 'cat's paw' for America in the region. In other words, a fine balance has to be struck between the US and Japan on one side and Russia and China on the other side - a balance that could put the Indian diplomacy to test.

US Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel, who ended his three-day visit to India yesterday, raised two specific issues. First, he showed keenness to co-produce military equipment, unfettered access to technology that is reserved for countries like UK, Canada or Australia. Second, he asked India to make a strategic shift and forge a trilateral alliance with the US and Japan, buttressing it with "as the US and Indian security interests converge, so should our partnerships with other nations".

In case New Delhi accepts this, it will have to be seen equidistant from the decades-old Japan-China acrimony. Japan has given some major infrastructure like the Delhi Metro and the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC). What India awaits is Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's plan of shifting the thousands of Japanese factories in China to India along the upcoming DMIC and also the Chennai Bangalore Industrial Corridor (CBIC).

Former Defence Minister AK Antony was not so keen on co-development ties with the US but had allowed purchase of specialised planes, the C-17 and the C-130-J for the Indian Air Force and the Boeing P8-I for the Navy. After 2008, the US won military contracts worth military $9 billion (approx Rs 54,000 crore). Al those years when India was in the Soviet Union bloc during the Cold War, the US did business worth only $ 500 million (Some Rs 3,000 crore at today's value).

Between 2009 and 2013, India imported 14 per cent of all global arms sold and Russia accounted for 79 per cent of those supplies, said the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in its March 2014 report 'trends in international arms transfers for the period 2009-1013'. India has joint development project with Russia, France and Israel. The US has offered a similar tie-up. India may find it tough to sever its umbilical cord from Russia. As of today projects worth $39 billion are in the pipeline with Moscow including co-development of the next generation of fighter jets. The Russia has helped New Delhi in its indigenous nuclear submarine, the Arihant.

At its launch in 2009, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was candid: "I would like to express our appreciation to our Russian friends for their invaluable cooperation". Moscow has also leased out a nuclear submarine, the Chakra. Long standing ties with Russia means India has more often than not voted along pro-Moscow line at the international forum, recently on the conflict in Ukraine.

Antony's successor Arun Jaitley, carries no such baggage or history of dithering on deeper ties with the US, rather by raising the level of foreign direct investment, to allow foreign firms to hold 49 per cent stake in military equipment-producing firms, he has sent out a signal. New Delhi will also be looking to factor in apprehensions and looking for assurance that no hurdle shall be placed at the behest of altered US interests.

Indian diplomacy faces litmus test

• • US Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel has showed keenness to co-produce military equipment and forge a trilateral alliance involving the US, India and Japan
  • New Delhi has to accept the US offers without seeming to move away from Russia or even remotely looking like a 'cat's paw' for America in the region
  • India will have to take into account the decades-old Japan-China acrimony before entering into any military alliance with Tokyo
  • India may find it tough to sever its umbilical cord from Russia. As of today projects worth $39 bn are in the pipeline with Moscow including co-development of the next generation of fighter jets.

Russia is a old partner & US is just a defense partner,hagel also said that India does not have to choose btw USA & Russia

 

[greatone]

We are not a balancing force & neither should we see ourselves as such. We are just an underdeveloped nation striving to improve. The power blocks of the world should not mean anything to us.

We need to focus upon ourselves and protect our long & short term interests.

Neither do we need to take sides - no nation that has strong feet needs a crutch. Whatever suits our interests should matter to us .

No nation can live in isolation with others.
India and China are still paying for the same mistake made centuries ago.
We should have been the ones to discover America, Australia and Europe when we were strong rather than the other way around.
Sadly the habit of taking solace by burying our head in the sand is still prevalent in our country.

 

[Juggernautjatt]

Thanks for an interesting article.
Can you provide the link pls

We are the balancing force caught in the crossfire of two great powers.
By 2040 the three countries with highest defense budgets will be US China and India.Every other country will be much behind these three.


Though the policy of non alignment can only serve us well by helping us to get some concessions from both sides I think sooner or later we will have to choose a side.


The article raises the need to make a very difficult decision for India in the future.
I foresee that the stronger India becomes on the global stage, the more pressure it will face to "pick" a side in the upcoming cold war of sorts.

Indian strategy makers should start gaming out all the different scenarios and pick a winner.
I don't think we can afford to sit on the sidelines much longer.
We will simply be too big and too important on the world stage not to take sides.

The Tribune, Chandigarh, India - Nation

 

[axisofevil]

Russia has engaged in many operations against India for Russia's interests. Corruption, Bribery, Honey Traps, blackmail, etc have all been used to get their way. The Indian public is not aware and privy to such information.

No nation can live in isolation with others.
India and China are still paying for the same mistake made centuries ago.
We should have been the ones to discover America, Australia and Europe when we were strong rather than the other way around.
Sadly the habit of taking solace by burying our head in the sand is still prevalent in our country.

China and India were fighting for influence and dominance centuries ago. Look at the Sinophile influence and where ti ends. China was willing to marry its princessess with many Kings in that region except India. They drew a line in the sand long ago. It does not mean we cant have an exchange of ideas and trade, but it does signal we are not treatted the same as those other countries even back then.

 

[Badbadman]

What we are so worried about, if US can woo us but still provide weapons to pakistan then sure we can keep our friendship with Russia. As far as china concerned I don't have any doubt about keeping economic ties with china but we should'nt forget our land disputes which both countries take seriously.

 

[SrNair]

I

Russia has engaged in many operations against India for Russia's interests. Corruption, Bribery, Honey Traps, blackmail, etc have all been used to get their way. The Indian public is not aware and privy to such information.





China and India were fighting for influence and dominance centuries ago. Look at the Sinophile influence and where ti ends. China was willing to marry its princessess with many Kings in that region except India. They drew a line in the sand long ago. It does not mean we cant have an exchange of ideas and trade, but it does signal we are not treatted the same as those other countries even back then.

In 1987 an Indian agent is courtmartialled for leaking classified info about IPKF plan SL.His name was Unnikrishnan IPS.CIA was the beneficiary.They honey trapped him 7 years ago and began to blackmail him when he become senior officer in RAW.
So noone is better.We have plenty of examples.
On topic: Codevelopment with US is not an issue.It is mere arms trade relation.thats all.We should reject their invitation for US -Japan alliance.
Russia is still remain as our trusted partner.

 

[baajey]

naya zamaana nayi soch.....
time ke saath chalna seekho warna time bomb ban jaogey......
russia has not much to offer rather than delays, promises more delays n price hikes (exactly thats why our babes HAL , DRDO etc are there).....its time we switch sides.....
if history has chosen us to be the DOG , then lets chose our master properly.

 

[Oldman1]

No nation can live in isolation with others.
India and China are still paying for the same mistake made centuries ago.
We should have been the ones to discover America, Australia and Europe when we were strong rather than the other way around.
Sadly the habit of taking solace by burying our head in the sand is still prevalent in our country.

Its India's fault for the Europeans discovering the New World. Christopher Columbus was trying to find you. And he thought the natives in the New World were Indians and called them that. Good job India. Good job.

 

[axisofevil]

I

In 1987 an Indian agent is courtmartialled for leaking classified info about IPKF plan SL.His name was Unnikrishnan IPS.CIA was the beneficiary.They honey trapped him 7 years ago and began to blackmail him when he become senior officer in RAW.
So noone is better.We have plenty of examples.
On topic: Codevelopment with US is not an issue.It is mere arms trade relation.thats all.We should reject their invitation for US -Japan alliance.
Russia is still remain as our trusted partner.

So examples of CIA. How many Russian incidents do you know of?


Japan needs our help. Sitting on the sidelines, means we cant make decisions that affect the world. And if cant make tough decisions, then we don't deserve a seat on the security council!

I

In 1987 an Indian agent is courtmartialled for leaking classified info about IPKF plan SL.His name was Unnikrishnan IPS.CIA was the beneficiary.They honey trapped him 7 years ago and began to blackmail him when he become senior officer in RAW.
So noone is better.We have plenty of examples.
On topic: Codevelopment with US is not an issue.It is mere arms trade relation.thats all.We should reject their invitation for US -Japan alliance.
Russia is still remain as our trusted partner.

READ UP...

Diplomat Madhuri Gupta, arrested on charges of spying for Pakistan, joins a list of several top Indian officials accused of leaking sensitive information or falling into honey trap in the past few decades.

The last such case is that of Navy officer Commodore Sukhjinder Singh, now being probed for his alleged liaison with a Russian woman between 2005 and 2007 -- when he was posted in Russia as the head of Indian team overseeing the refit of aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov. A board of inquiry, set up against Singh after his objectionable photographs with the unidentified woman surfaced, is now probing whether his "loose moral conduct" and indiscretions have any connections with the Gorshkov deal which has been signed after a lot of negotiations due to the cost hike of the carrier.

In May 2008, a senior Indian Embassy official in Beijing was called back to New Delhi for falling to the charms of a Chinese honey trap. Manmohan Sharma, a senior Research and Analysis Wing officer, was alleged to be in a romantic affair with his Chinese language teacher. Indian authorities suspected the woman could be an informant of the Chinese government and gathered information about India's moves and counter-moves on the border talks.

In October 2007, a 1975 batch Research and Analysis Service officer Ravi Nair was called back from Hong Kong for his 'friendship' with a girl believed to be working for a Chinese spy agency. However, within a brief time Nair was again given a foreign posting in Colombo where the woman also came and allegedly started staying with him, raising suspicion. The officials of other departments, posted at the Indian High Commission, sent reports about Nair to their respective departments paving way for his recall.

Like any other snooping agency, India's external Intelligence agency RAW has also a history of officials switching their loyalties to foreign agencies. The most infamous case which shook RAW out of reverie was that of Rabinder Singh who became a mole of American intelligence agency CIA and flew to the US despite being under RAW surveillance. Singh initially worked with the Indian Army and held a very senior position with RAW handling Southeast Asia. By the time the agency sensed his affiliations, Singh escaped to the US through Nepal in 2004.

The second blow came in 2006 with the discovery of another alleged CIA mole in India's National Security Council Secretariat, which is part of the Prime Minister's Office.


In the early 90s, an Indian Naval attache posted in Islamabad reportedly fell in love with a Pakistani woman working in the Military Nursing Service in Karachi. The attache was interrogated and then forced to resign. Reports said the official, who had initially claimed having recruited the woman as a spy, was being blackmailed by the ISI, which wanted his services after his return to the Naval Headquarters in Delhi.

Then a personal assistant to a very senior RAW official disappeared in London in the early 90s. Ashok Sathe, another official was also believed to have defected to the US after his mysterious disappearance. Sathe was said to be behind burning down of RAW office in Khurramshahr in Iran.

In the early 1980s, a senior field officer disappeared in London. As attache in Kathmandu, he was alleged to be liaisoning with foreign intelligence agencies In another case, a senior Intelligence Bureau official, who was due to take over as the chief of counter-intelligence, had an "unauthorised" relationship with a female US consular officer. His meetings with her were recorded on camera by the IB, and he was forced to retire following interrogation.

However, in the history of Indian intelligence, the most written about case was that of K V Unnikrishnan, a RAW officer dealing with the LTTE. He had developed a relationship with an air hostess believed to be an intelligence scion. He was arrested just ahead of a peace accord signed between India and Sri Lanka. The oldest case of 'honey trapping', when an Indian diplomat during the time of the first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru was trapped by a Russian girl in Moscow. When the Russian spy agency KGB presented him with the pictures of his activities with the girl, the diplomat informed his ambassador about his relationship and the KGB's attempts to blackmail him. The ambassador raised the issue with Nehru, who was himself in charge of the External Affairs Ministry. Nehru just laughed it off, warning the young diplomat to be more careful in future.

 

[greatone]

Its India's fault for the Europeans discovering the New World. Christopher Columbus was trying to find you. And he thought the natives in the New World were Indians and called them that. Good job India. Good job.

yeah sure okay

 

[Dillinger]

So examples of CIA. How many Russian incidents do you know of?


Japan needs our help. Sitting on the sidelines, means we cant make decisions that affect the world. And if cant make tough decisions, then we don't deserve a seat on the security council!



READ UP...

Diplomat Madhuri Gupta, arrested on charges of spying for Pakistan, joins a list of several top Indian officials accused of leaking sensitive information or falling into honey trap in the past few decades.

The last such case is that of Navy officer Commodore Sukhjinder Singh, now being probed for his alleged liaison with a Russian woman between 2005 and 2007 -- when he was posted in Russia as the head of Indian team overseeing the refit of aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov. A board of inquiry, set up against Singh after his objectionable photographs with the unidentified woman surfaced, is now probing whether his "loose moral conduct" and indiscretions have any connections with the Gorshkov deal which has been signed after a lot of negotiations due to the cost hike of the carrier.

In May 2008, a senior Indian Embassy official in Beijing was called back to New Delhi for falling to the charms of a Chinese honey trap. Manmohan Sharma, a senior Research and Analysis Wing officer, was alleged to be in a romantic affair with his Chinese language teacher. Indian authorities suspected the woman could be an informant of the Chinese government and gathered information about India's moves and counter-moves on the border talks.

In October 2007, a 1975 batch Research and Analysis Service officer Ravi Nair was called back from Hong Kong for his 'friendship' with a girl believed to be working for a Chinese spy agency. However, within a brief time Nair was again given a foreign posting in Colombo where the woman also came and allegedly started staying with him, raising suspicion. The officials of other departments, posted at the Indian High Commission, sent reports about Nair to their respective departments paving way for his recall.

Like any other snooping agency, India's external Intelligence agency RAW has also a history of officials switching their loyalties to foreign agencies. The most infamous case which shook RAW out of reverie was that of Rabinder Singh who became a mole of American intelligence agency CIA and flew to the US despite being under RAW surveillance. Singh initially worked with the Indian Army and held a very senior position with RAW handling Southeast Asia. By the time the agency sensed his affiliations, Singh escaped to the US through Nepal in 2004.

The second blow came in 2006 with the discovery of another alleged CIA mole in India's National Security Council Secretariat, which is part of the Prime Minister's Office.


In the early 90s, an Indian Naval attache posted in Islamabad reportedly fell in love with a Pakistani woman working in the Military Nursing Service in Karachi. The attache was interrogated and then forced to resign. Reports said the official, who had initially claimed having recruited the woman as a spy, was being blackmailed by the ISI, which wanted his services after his return to the Naval Headquarters in Delhi.

Then a personal assistant to a very senior RAW official disappeared in London in the early 90s. Ashok Sathe, another official was also believed to have defected to the US after his mysterious disappearance. Sathe was said to be behind burning down of RAW office in Khurramshahr in Iran.

In the early 1980s, a senior field officer disappeared in London. As attache in Kathmandu, he was alleged to be liaisoning with foreign intelligence agencies In another case, a senior Intelligence Bureau official, who was due to take over as the chief of counter-intelligence, had an "unauthorised" relationship with a female US consular officer. His meetings with her were recorded on camera by the IB, and he was forced to retire following interrogation.

However, in the history of Indian intelligence, the most written about case was that of K V Unnikrishnan, a RAW officer dealing with the LTTE. He had developed a relationship with an air hostess believed to be an intelligence scion. He was arrested just ahead of a peace accord signed between India and Sri Lanka. The oldest case of 'honey trapping', when an Indian diplomat during the time of the first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru was trapped by a Russian girl in Moscow. When the Russian spy agency KGB presented him with the pictures of his activities with the girl, the diplomat informed his ambassador about his relationship and the KGB's attempts to blackmail him. The ambassador raised the issue with Nehru, who was himself in charge of the External Affairs Ministry. Nehru just laughed it off, warning the young diplomat to be more careful in future.

@Ravi Nair, report to my office, you scoundrel!