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Afghanistan's Future Now Belongs to the Afghans

pakistani342

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The New York Times reports today that animosity between the United States and Afghanistan has finally gotten so bad that President Obama is seriously thinking about pulling out completely next year, without leaving behind even a small residual force:

A videoconference between Mr. Obama and Mr. Karzai designed to defuse the tensions ended badly, according to both American and Afghan officials with knowledge of it. Mr. Karzai, according to those sources, accused the United States of trying to negotiate a separate peace with both the Taliban and their backers in Pakistan, leaving Afghanistan’s fragile government exposed to its enemies.

Mr. Karzai had made similar accusations in the past. But those comments were delivered to Afghans — not to Mr. Obama, who responded by pointing out the American lives that have been lost propping up Mr. Karzai’s government, the officials said.

The option of leaving no troops in Afghanistan after 2014 was gaining momentum before the June 27 video conference, according to the officials. But since then, the idea of a complete military exit similar to the American military pullout from Iraq has gone from being considered the worst-case scenario — and a useful negotiating tool with Mr. Karzai — to an alternative under serious consideration in Washington and Kabul.

I won't say I'm thrilled about how or why this is happening, but I like the end result. It's long past time to pull out of Afghanistan completely, and a residual force would serve little purpose except to make itself a target if and when the Afghan state implodes. We've now been in Afghanistan for more than a dozen years, and the plain truth is that if they can't stand on their own now, they never will.

And they might very well not. I can fully sympathize with Karzai's impossible position here, regardless of what I think of him more generally. He's got limited tribal support, no real control of the country much outside Kabul, a woefully undertrained military and police force, and the Taliban ready to restart its civil war at the first opportunity. And on top of this, he gets the blame every time we Americans do something to inflame the population. It's impossible.

But it's no less impossible with us around—unless, of course, Karzai wants us around for the next 50 years, which is probably how long it would take for Afghani politics to stabilize. But he doesn't, and neither do we. So it's time to cut the cord. For good and ill, we've done everything we can. Afghanistan's future is now up to the Afghans.
 
Mother Jones ? Kevin Who ? I guess I will start writing a blog too. I dont think these sorts of posting merit a comment or even worth publishing in the first place on PDF but since you did I will briefly comment.

1. NATO and the ISAF mission in Afghanistan started seriously training the ANSF in 2009, prior to it was a joke so before they blame the ANSF for not standing up to the Taliban ( which as a matter of fact they do) they should look inward and take some of the blame.

2. The state apparatus is riddled with corruption that is the number concern of the Afghan people but wait is it only the Afghan's fault that corruption is so rampant? Well if u look at the big contracts majority of them are awarded to the people who have links to warlords and corrupt officials, the US side knows about it but instead of sidelining these individuals they have actually help them get more powerful, bottom line is yes Afghans are at fault but equally the US too.

3. Remember Afghanistan in the 60s was a normal country, but thanks to the Soviets and the US, playing different sides made a big mess of this country and a major extent the entire neighborhood. So lets be objective for a while.

4. I see this and the leaks in the NY times as negotiation tactics, rhetoric to pressure the Afghans in the BSA agreement, although I hope the Afghans don't over play their hands in these negotiations but the bottom line is that both the US and the Afghans need each other and both sides will lose if the BSA negotiations fail.

PS : On a side note.

Has anyone of you seen the amount of investment the US has done in Afghanistan in terms of constructing military bases, has anyone of visited Bagram, Kandahar or Shindand, its like major cities there, anyone thinking that the US will cut and run is day dreaming, lets get real the Afghans and the US will sign the BSA sooner or later. Period!
 
Furthermore is the US doing Afghanistan a favor by staying all these years there? Lets be objective for a while, she has her interests and will stay as long it deems it necessary, the same goes for Afghanistan, neither side is doing the other a favor...

The BATNA for Afghanistan would be a serious setback since we in Afghanistan need the US for years and probably decades to come thanks to the sort of neighborhood we are in.
 
Mother Jones ? Kevin Who ? I guess I will start writing a blog too. I dont think these sorts of posting merit a comment or even worth publishing in the first place on PDF but since you did I will briefly comment.

> I believe you are mistaken: Keven Drake is amongst a loud chorus that typifies the thinking of the American body politic
> What is really at the root of the current American thinking, in summary: Americans can't want Afghanistan more than Afghans themselves.

1. NATO and the ISAF mission in Afghanistan started seriously training the ANSF in 2009, prior to it was a joke so before they blame the ANSF for not standing up to the Taliban ( which as a matter of fact they do) they should look inward and take some of the blame.

> The broader point is that it is not the responsibility of boys from Arkansas and Wyoming to fight and die so that Afghans girls can go to school or for US Taxpayers like myself to fund the schooling of Afghans girls (I have my hands full saving for my daughter's college fund).

2. The state apparatus is riddled with corruption that is the number concern of the Afghan people but wait is it only the Afghan's fault that corruption is so rampant? Well if u look at the big contracts majority of them are awarded to the people who have links to warlords and corrupt officials, the US side knows about it but instead of sidelining these individuals they have actually help them get more powerful, bottom line is yes Afghans are at fault but equally the US too.

> I think more of the same thread - perhaps the Kahraman-e-milli types should have sensed the rare opportunity provided by the US involvement - It is for Afghans to build their country not the Americans.

3. Remember Afghanistan in the 60s was a normal country, but thanks to the Soviets and the US, playing different sides made a big mess of this country and a major extent the entire neighborhood. So lets be objective for a while.

> I'd encourage you to study Somalia and Congo of the 60s
> If my reading of history is correct: It has been an Afghan modus operandi to use one power against another - looks pretty good on paper but the effects for Afghanistan have been disastrous to put it mildly
> It was the Afghans that invited the Soviets to invade (we know now by declassified documents that the Soviet leadership was reluctant to do so)
> I also would think that the feuding between Babrak, Taraki, Amin et al were Afghan Machinations and you can't blame the Soviets or the Americans for it.
> Again, it was Daoud Khan who started the mess with Pakistan - so arguably he cast the first stone and not the Soviets or Americans

4. I see this and the leaks in the NY times as negotiation tactics, rhetoric to pressure the Afghans in the BSA agreement, although I hope the Afghans don't over play their hands in these negotiations but the bottom line is that both the US and the Afghans need each other and both sides will lose if the BSA negotiations fail.

> Yes, they are part of negotiation tactics, there is no genius in that - but the zero option is also real
> The Afghans need the US - the US can manage without Afghan presence (though it might be detrimental for the region and possibly disastrous for the Afghans)

PS : On a side note.

Has anyone of you seen the amount of investment the US has done in Afghanistan in terms of constructing military bases, has anyone of visited Bagram, Kandahar or Shindand, its like major cities there, anyone thinking that the US will cut and run is day dreaming, lets get real the Afghans and the US will sign the BSA sooner or later. Period!

> Have you every visited any of the bases the US built in Iraq - I suspect they are much bigger than the ones at Bagram, Kandahar or Shindand
> The US will probably end up staying but if there is an Afghan expectation that they will use the US to strong arm Iran or Pakistan - then the Afghans will sorely be disappointed
> One a side side note there was similar thinking vis-a-vis Vietnam (which is arguably a far more important country than Afghanistan) - that leaving Vietnam would have a disastrous domino effect - at the end the US (rightly so) decided to withdraw
 
I think the answers are in you own statement: "we in Afghanistan need the US for years and probably decades to come thanks to the sort of neighborhood we are in."

Though I would be happy to see Afghan kids go to school: but as a US taxpayer, I really don't see why my hard earned income should go to building schools in Afghanistan - what's in it for me: nothing?

As for failed states the is not short: somalia, DRC, etc.

Afghanistan needs to come to terms (primarily) with it's two powerful neighbors: Iran and Pakistan.
 
Mother Jones ? Kevin Who ? I guess I will start writing a blog too. I dont think these sorts of posting merit a comment or even worth publishing in the first place on PDF but since you did I will briefly comment.

1. NATO and the ISAF mission in Afghanistan started seriously training the ANSF in 2009, prior to it was a joke so before they blame the ANSF for not standing up to the Taliban ( which as a matter of fact they do) they should look inward and take some of the blame.

2. The state apparatus is riddled with corruption that is the number concern of the Afghan people but wait is it only the Afghan's fault that corruption is so rampant? Well if u look at the big contracts majority of them are awarded to the people who have links to warlords and corrupt officials, the US side knows about it but instead of sidelining these individuals they have actually help them get more powerful, bottom line is yes Afghans are at fault but equally the US too.

3. Remember Afghanistan in the 60s was a normal country, but thanks to the Soviets and the US, playing different sides made a big mess of this country and a major extent the entire neighborhood. So lets be objective for a while.

4. I see this and the leaks in the NY times as negotiation tactics, rhetoric to pressure the Afghans in the BSA agreement, although I hope the Afghans don't over play their hands in these negotiations but the bottom line is that both the US and the Afghans need each other and both sides will lose if the BSA negotiations fail.

PS : On a side note.

Has anyone of you seen the amount of investment the US has done in Afghanistan in terms of constructing military bases, has anyone of visited Bagram, Kandahar or Shindand, its like major cities there, anyone thinking that the US will cut and run is day dreaming, lets get real the Afghans and the US will sign the BSA sooner or later. Period!

Regardless of the rest of your points, I'd like to point out that motherjones is a well known and well respected site in the US. It's not a random blogging site, but it deals with political analysis with "expert opinion" and has been quoted by international news agencies and governments around the world...despite it's poorly thought out name.
 
Excellent discussions :tup:- hopefully trolls stay away from this thread.
 
good luck to the neighbour country and we are praying for stability and law & order there as it directly affects Pakistan and Afghanistan's other immediate neighbours as well

despite being land-locked, the country is in a very strategic location and as reported -- does have resources which can be tapped and exported to help rebuild its shattered economy and bring betterment to the lives of millions of Afghans

its a moral obligation for Afghanistans neighbours to be part of the solution to peace, but ultimately the ball will be in the court of Afghans --of all ethnic groups and affiliations. It's a moral obligation for the WORLD to stand by Afghanistan and help them rebuild.
 
This is all drama...
Karzai is a US supported puppet in govt
Karzai is acting like this to allow US to leave Afghanistan with its chin up, meaning US didn't leave because of mission failure, instead because Karzai made them :lol:
 
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