Afghanistan: As US retreats, India needs plan B

[53fd]

Rajeev Srinivasan on India's reduced options in Afghanistan, now that it seems like the Americans have finally lost the war

Two singular events took place recently that lead me to believe that the unthinkable has finally happened: the Americans have lost the Afghan war.

First was the assassination of Burhanuddin Rabbani, former president of Afghanistan, and chairman of the High Peace Council attempting to reach a negotiated settlement with the Taliban.

Second was the explicit accusation by Admiral Mike Mullen, the outgoing American Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that Pakistan's Inter Services Inteligence was behind the recent, audacious attack on the US embassy in Kabul (the assault was rather too professional and well-planned for non-State actors to have done it).

Things are so bad that the New York Times, which is essentially the voice of the US establishment and therefore generally supportive of Pakistan, has seen fit to thunder in an editorial titled The Latest Ugly Truth About Pakistan that something must be done. They stopped short of specifying what that something might be.

Brian Cloughey, a Briton known for closeness to the Pakistani establishment, went one step further in Is this a price worth paying?, and told off the Americans.

Said he in The News International, "I know the Pakistan Army, and I state flatly that man-for-man it will hammer any opponent, no matter if the skies are horizon-filled with US bombers." I guess that means that the Pakistanis are slightly worried.

There is an irony somewhere in the fact that the ISI has comprehensively hoodwinked the Americans into (unwittingly?) funding the ISI's attacks on American interests, not to mention their troops. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that the ISI had a hand in planning the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Centre: they are good at tactical support for large-scale operations, such as the 11/26 siege of Mumbai and the assault in the heart of Kabul where operatives held security forces off for 20 hours.

It is remarkable how the ISI has mesmerised the Americans. The metaphor that comes to mind is that apocryphal tale of how a cobra can hypnotise its prey into paralysis before it strikes. It is a thing of wonder, this willing suspension of disbelief by the Americans in the face of Pakistan's diplomatic theatre.

Afghan endgame: As Americans retreat, India needs plan B - Rediff.com News

 

[Abingdonboy]

What was/is plan "A"? I really don't see, without India committing 10,000s of troops to Afghanistan (of course a VERY longshot and would be disastrous if done), how India can really have much of an influence in Afghanistan after US leave and if Taliban return to power. Perhaps India can avoid making same mistakes as last time when Taliban was in power by not recognising their authority. Morals are admirable, the US can afford to have them- they are protected by two oceans, India is NOT. India should maintain its grass-roots good feeling that it enjoys currently and should just hope this is enough to keep the undoubted Pakistani terrorist influx from doing any real harm to India.

But alas, plans are just that, and like I heard from an ex US SOF operator once- as soon as the first bullet wizzes past plans go to $hit. We don't know what is going to happen between now and 2014, we don't know what India will do, US will do, Afghanistan will do etc All we know is that the ays after ISAF withdraw are going to be VERY dark for th Afghan people and all most of us can do is pray for these unfortunate innocents.

 

[illuminatidinesh]

What was/is plan "A"? I really don't see, without India committing 10,000s of troops to Afghanistan (of course a VERY longshot and would be disastrous if done), how India can really have much of an influence in Afghanistan after US leave and if Taliban return to power. Perhaps India can avoid making same mistakes as last time when Taliban was in power by not recognising their authority. Morals are admirable, the US can afford to have them- they are protected by two oceans, India is NOT. India should maintain its grass-roots good feeling that it enjoys currently and should just hope this is enough to keep the undoubted Pakistani terrorist influx from doing any real harm to India.

But alas, plans are just that, and like I heard from an ex US SOF operator once- as soon as the first bullet wizzes past plans go to $hit. We don't know what is going to happen between now and 2014, we don't know what India will do, US will do, Afghanistan will do etc All we know is that the ays after ISAF withdraw are going to be VERY dark for th Afghan people and all most of us can do is pray for these unfortunate innocents.

Ya the same question where was the plan A?
Taliban back to power is no good for anybody.(what U sow is what U reap--- This fits for everyone.)

 

[crimemaster_gogo]

US is not gonna go anywhere, you know something until the haqqanis are killed and destroyed by pakistan army US won't go, if pakistan tries to defy american orders then they will have it like what musharraf had said "they warned pakistan to co-operate on WOT or else be ready to be bombed back to stoneage. AND if pakistan army manages to destroy the haqqani network the US may still leave claiming the victory of killing osama and uprooting the taliban. BUT what will be the state of pakistan if all these remaining and evergrowing scum (jihadi - idiots taliban) and the very stupid thought of jihad in pakistani society.

 

[misterme2]

If India doesn;t act, it looses a prime opportunity. The US if and when it retreats and passes ops to the Afghan gov't will wash its hands clean but INdia will truly suffer as China and PAkistan work overtime to coonsolidate their grip and power. They will make sure Afghan remains a lawless land where terrorists roam free like before. India should commit troops to the ground. it would not only help secure India;s safety but it will give valuable counter terrorism tactics compared to Indian guerrillas. These guys in Afghan, are more sophiscated and more willing to use unproven tactics. It will give INdia great insight and such info could be used by India's special forces and paramilitary. Anyhow, knowing how weak Indian politicos are, tey neither have the will or guts to commit to such a vision. They will act too late and give PAkistan the upper hand..........again.

 

[rockstarIN]

If people think that US lost the war and they are gonna retreat, think again.

They were able to prevent an another attack on their home land (though protected by two oceans).

And they will make sure than the same status quo prevails in case of their security, whther Taliban comes into power or not.

And do not much think about cost of the war, a big attack on US will change the mood of the US people and again US congress will pass double the amount US prez wants.

The point is whether US Army is there or not, 'they will be watching you'

 

[Avatar]

If India doesn;t act, it looses a prime opportunity. The US if and when it retreats and passes ops to the Afghan gov't will wash its hands clean but INdia will truly suffer as China and PAkistan work overtime to coonsolidate their grip and power. They will make sure Afghan remains a lawless land where terrorists roam free like before. India should commit troops to the ground. it would not only help secure India;s safety but it will give valuable counter terrorism tactics compared to Indian guerrillas. These guys in Afghan, are more sophiscated and more willing to use unproven tactics. It will give INdia great insight and such info could be used by India's special forces and paramilitary. Anyhow, knowing how weak Indian politicos are, tey neither have the will or guts to commit to such a vision. They will act too late and give PAkistan the upper hand..........again.

We already know what it is costing the US for gaining such greater "insights". No thanks.

 

[karan.1970]

If India doesn;t act, it looses a prime opportunity. The US if and when it retreats and passes ops to the Afghan gov't will wash its hands clean but INdia will truly suffer as China and PAkistan work overtime to coonsolidate their grip and power. They will make sure Afghan remains a lawless land where terrorists roam free like before. India should commit troops to the ground. it would not only help secure India;s safety but it will give valuable counter terrorism tactics compared to Indian guerrillas. These guys in Afghan, are more sophiscated and more willing to use unproven tactics. It will give INdia great insight and such info could be used by India's special forces and paramilitary. Anyhow, knowing how weak Indian politicos are, tey neither have the will or guts to commit to such a vision. They will act too late and give PAkistan the upper hand..........again.

You think Pakistan has been getting the upper hand in last couple decades ?? ever??

 

[Tshering22]

The US is not going to go anywhere completely. Even if it withdraws 90% of its military from the country, the rest 10% will continue to be stationed there, doing the bid of Langley, getting rid of Talibunnies or their sympathizers wherever they find them. We do need to think of a plan without them as well. Meaning that we need something bigger than just donations. Troops are out of question. But intelligence stations should be a start.

 

[Abingdonboy]

If India doesn;t act, it looses a prime opportunity. The US if and when it retreats and passes ops to the Afghan gov't will wash its hands clean but INdia will truly suffer as China and PAkistan work overtime to coonsolidate their grip and power. They will make sure Afghan remains a lawless land where terrorists roam free like before. India should commit troops to the ground. it would not only help secure India;s safety but it will give valuable counter terrorism tactics compared to Indian guerrillas. These guys in Afghan, are more sophiscated and more willing to use unproven tactics. It will give INdia great insight and such info could be used by India's special forces and paramilitary. Anyhow, knowing how weak Indian politicos are, tey neither have the will or guts to commit to such a vision. They will act too late and give PAkistan the upper hand..........again.

Pal I think you've got your facts wrong, the Indian state/IA gave been fighting various insurgencies with much success for over 60 years. The insurgencies they have fought have pioneered devestaion and horror, many forint countries look TO IA for help and advice in CI, one US Army general said last year after returning from Afghanistan the India practically wrote the book on CI ops and that was why they needed to be more involved in Afghanistan. IA has pioneered CI ops and has paid harsh lessons in blood, the RR are considered by many to be the finest CI force in the world and many IA schools the best CI schools anywhere. Having said that I don't think committing IA to ops in Afghanistan would do any good and would erode all the goodwill India has earnt on the ground in Afghanistan not to mention the human loss of IA soldiers that would no doubt occur.

 

[blain2]

It is not beyond the realm of possibility that the ISI had a hand in planning the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Centre: they are good at tactical support for large-scale operations, such as the 11/26 siege of Mumbai and the assault in the heart of Kabul where operatives held security forces off for 20 hours.

Is this a joke? Pakistan has lost the most in this entire war. Does this rascal even understand on how many fronts Pakistan has had to retreat on its interests due to this war in Afghanistan that was precipitated by the 9/11 attacks? This war has been the single biggest shock to Pakistan since the 1971 breakup. Pakistan has never sustained the level of damage to its economy, social fabric, general well being and image that it is doing now with this war all because of the 9/11 attacks. If the ISI had a hand in the 9/11 attacks (just writing this makes me want to laugh) as this chap tries to surmise, then I would suggest the writer to get some more bhang (opium) and stay high on it!

 

[Kompromat]

India can have Plan [B to Z] for Afghanistan , but the fact is that all of them are bound to fail. India will be made to run " tail in " from the mountains of Afghanistan.

 

[rockstarIN]

India can have Plan [B to Z] for Afghanistan , but the fact is that all of them are bound to fail. India will be made to run " tail in " from the mountains of Afghanistan.

We are using our proxies. (US)

 

[crimemaster_gogo]

India can have Plan [B to Z] for Afghanistan , but the fact is that all of them are bound to fail. India will be made to run " tail in " from the mountains of Afghanistan.

lol let the Americans exit then we will see who tucks tail.
.
.Dargah khula ni, bheek maangney fakir haazir!

 

[Pakistanisage]

US is not gonna go anywhere, you know something until the haqqanis are killed and destroyed by pakistan army US won't go, if pakistan tries to defy american orders then they will have it like what musharraf had said "they warned pakistan to co-operate on WOT or else be ready to be bombed back to stoneage. AND if pakistan army manages to destroy the haqqani network the US may still leave claiming the victory of killing osama and uprooting the taliban. BUT what will be the state of pakistan if all these remaining and evergrowing scum (jihadi - idiots taliban) and the very stupid thought of jihad in pakistani society.

America is no position to bomb anybody to stone age and this is not 2001. With American Economy tanking out, we need America to head back home and I can assure you all your fantasies of America destroying Pakistan AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN. You need to get your head out of your rear end and come back to the real world, armchair warrior.