Access to Beidou not guaranteed in a nuclear conflict

[Safriz]

ISLAMABAD — Access to China’s Beidou satellite guidance system for navigation and precision strike weaponry is welcomed by Pakistani
analysts, but guaranteed availability of the Beidou signal cannot be
assumed. “Pakistan’s armed forces cannot rely on US GPS because of its
questionable availability during a conflict that has overtones of
nuclear escalation,” former Pakistan Air Force pilot Kaiser Tufail said. “With Pakistani cruise missiles having satellite navigation as an
option, it would actually be very naive to believe that US would abet
in any such venture,” he said. The Beidou military signal will be more
accurate than available commercial systems. Mansoor Ahmed from Quaid-e-Azam
University’s Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, who specializes in Pakistan’s national deterrent and
delivery program, said the Beidou signal is vital for Pakistan’s
defense. “Pakistan is likely to follow a two-pronged strategy aimed at
providing redundancies in conflict situations for secure guidance of
its cruise missiles,” he said. “This would call for reliance on Beidou as well as inertial guidance,
the latter being used for indigenous cruise missiles like Babur, which
can be used for counterforce precision strikes with or without
conventional warheads,” he added. Pakistan’s indigenous cruise missiles, the air-launched Hatf-VIII/
Vengeance-VIII Ra’ad, and the surface or sub-surface-launched Hatf-
VII Babur, use satellite guidance in addition to inertial navigation and
terrain contour mapping. Some Pakistani ballistic missiles, such as the Shaheen-II, are also
claimed to have a satellite guidance option. Despite its benefits, access to Beidou cannot be fully guaranteed. Though Tufail believes “China would not outright withdraw [Beidou]
at least in the relatively less dangerous early stages of a conflict. … For
Pakistan to depend on Chinese satellite guidance systems for
weapons delivery [which could be nuclear too] is fraught with
uncertainties driven by international concerns. “Total reliance on the Chinese Beidou satellite positioning system in
any conflict would, therefore, also have to be tempered with these
stark realities,” he added. Tufail said Beidou is important mainly with regards to conventional
precision strike. “The very large destruction hemisphere of a nuclear weapon, even a
low yield one, mitigates any lack of delivery accuracy of a small
order,” he said. Ahmed, however, believes Beidou will have at least one important
part to play regarding Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent. “Beidou would be particularly effective for a naval Babur that is
believed to be the platform for Pakistan’s second-strike capability,” he
said. Its value will mainly be through the accurate positioning of the
launch submarine rather than the guidance of the missile itself,
because inertial navigation should still be sufficient for a submarine-
launched weapon as long as the submarine’s position is accurately
determined. Ahmed does not believe large numbers of conventionally armed
variants of the Babur missile will be carried on Pakistani submarines. For the Navy “Babur primarily fits in with a second strike platform
carrying nuclear warheads” he said. In the South Asian context, the use of precision guided munitions can
be hampered, however. The skies over Pakistan are often obscured by thick fog in winter
and dust storms in summer, which complicate accurate weapons
delivery. Tufail, therefore, highlights Beidou as important for aircraft
navigation and conventional weapons delivery. Though he thinks
Pakistan “must retain options like laser guided weapons, not
withstanding their limitations in adverse weather conditions. “In a 24-hour cycle, there are ample opportunities that can be
exploited and these weapons can be useful backups,” he said. China’s aid to Pakistan’s goes further than Beidou, however. While as
Pakistan continues to develop its own precision-guided weaponry,
only China can expeditiously deliver such such munitions in volume. The Stockholm International Policy Research Institute (SIPRI) cites
deliveries of the LS-3 and LS-6-500 satellite-guided glide bombs, and
the LT-2 LGB in connection with the JF-17 Thunder fighter program as
the latest examples. SIPRI also confirms the acquisition of 50 Chinese CM-400AKG
supersonic standoff missiles for the anti-shipping strike role under a
2010 deal. A variant of the missile is believed to also be satellite
guided for precision strikes against land targets. He is inclined to believe the CM-400AKG will remain a specialist anti-
aircraft carrier weapon for the time being therefore.

 

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