About Possibility of a Pakistan Nuclear Deal Similar to India's

[Daneshmand]

I was curious if Pakistan will use Indian precedent to push for an international deal to get advanced nuclear power plants with foreign investment as India has done plus access to world uranium market. With Pakistan's shortage of energy, is Pakistan's foreign ministry lobbying and pushing for such a deal? What are the obstacles? If a deal reached, which reactor technology Pakistan prefers to have (European, Japanese, American, Russian, Chinese. etc..)?

 

[unbiasedopinion]

None of the above because pakistan's track record.

 

[Daneshmand]

None of the above because pakistan's track record.

I did not put the "track record" in options because, it is in the past and Pakistan did alot to be transparent and responsible because of it. This is about NOW and FUTURE and not about past.

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BBC News - Will the India-US nuclear deal work?
Energy-hungry India plans to generate 63,000 MW of nuclear power by 2032 - an almost 14-fold increase on current levels. It has 22 nuclear reactors and plans to build some 40 more in the next two decades. American suppliers are already facing competition. Russia is planning to build 20 reactors in India. France is building six reactors in the western state of Maharashtra, one of India's most industrialised states. America will build at least eight reactors.

 

[halupridol]

Well,,,not very long time ago,,Pakistan had excellent relations with US.
if they really wanted it,they cud've got it.
now chances r pretty dim if none

 

[Viper0011.]

I was curious if Pakistan will use Indian precedent to push for an international deal to get advanced nuclear power plants with foreign investment as India has done plus access to world uranium market.

The simple answer is NO. It won't happen as here is the West against this, due to previous nuclear related reputation, and then there is your arch rival India's lobby. Having this said, the situation changes when Pakistan's economy grows 30-40% in the next few years.
When the current projects start to go live by 2017, the current electric production issue will have resolved by 80%, with significant foreign investments flowing through and the trade route becoming active, Pakistan's economy, from Gawader all the way to China, will start to present a great opportunity for international investors. That is when Pakistan would be able to get electric power plants from other countries. However, due to its size 6 times smaller than India, these plants won't come in as a "deal" like the world saw with India. Just because the Indian population and its size is enormous. Pakistan has less people and needs compared to India so the current projects can overcome majority of the shortfall to a point where the industries can start production again. Future demands will be met by future purchases of few nuclear plants IMO.

Pakistan should really be building about 2 dozen mid-large sized dams on Indus alone. The water being wasted, can be saved, can provide serious advantage in increasing agriculture and farming business, as well as turning the deserts into agriculture land by re-routing the water through these dams. The biggest advantage would be cheaper, safer electric production and avoiding floods, plus millions of new jobs that these projects will create. You can then supplement additional needs with nuclear energy production, but you won't need too many plants for that.

 

[Daneshmand]

Well,,,not very long time ago,,Pakistan had excellent relations with US.
if they really wanted it,they cud've got it.
now chances r pretty dim if none

Interesting. Why would they not want it when Pakistan is suffering from energy shortage and nuclear energy is one of the cheapest ways of solving the problem?

 

[kamrananvaar]

Well,,,not very long time ago,,Pakistan had excellent relations with US.
if they really wanted it,they cud've got it.
now chances r pretty dim if none

Us is not the only player in town

 

[Daneshmand]

The simple answer is NO. It won't happen as here is the West against this, due to previous nuclear related reputation, and then there is your arch rival India's lobby. Having this said, the situation changes when Pakistan's economy grows 30-40% in the next few years.
When the current projects start to go live by 2017, the current electric production issue will have resolved by 80%, with significant foreign investments flowing through and the trade route becoming active, Pakistan's economy, from Gawader all the way to China, will start to present a great opportunity for international investors. That is when Pakistan would be able to get electric power plants from other countries. However, due to its size 6 times smaller than India, these plants won't come in as a "deal" like the world saw with India. Just because the Indian population and its size is enormous. Pakistan has less people and needs compared to India so the current projects can overcome majority of the shortfall to a point where the industries can start production again. Future demands will be met by future purchases of few nuclear plants IMO.

Pakistan should really be building about 2 dozen mid-large sized dams on Indus alone. The water being wasted, can be saved, can provide serious advantage in increasing agriculture and farming business, as well as turning the deserts into agriculture land by re-routing the water through these dams. The biggest advantage would be cheaper, safer electric production and avoiding floods, plus millions of new jobs that these projects will create. You can then supplement additional needs with nuclear energy production, but you won't need too many plants for that.

Then in your opinion, how long will it take for Pakistan to repair its reputation? Also Pakistan's population will hit 360 million by 2050, so it is not a small country, population wise and will need a lot more energy to feed all these people, even with all those dams built.

Us is not the only player in town

Who else is out there then?

 

[illusion8]

Interesting. Why would they not want it when Pakistan is suffering from energy shortage and nuclear energy is one of the cheapest ways of solving the problem?

!) Obviously their track record with regards to nuclear material - I doubt anybody believes that AQ Khan did the proliferation on his own.

2) Bad track record in completing energy projects, bad bill collections, bad payment cycles / bad credit. Bad economy.

3rd and probably the most important thing - There isn't a big enough market / or enticement for anyone to be keen on employing enough diplomatic and geo political costly currency to bring Pakistan in to the nuclear club. - why would anybody bother to do that? there's no free lunch. Going by the news and articles on PDF, their power sector revenue collection is pathetic added to their delayed and bad cyclical debt payment.

 

[Daneshmand]

!) Obviously their track record with regards to nuclear material - I doubt anybody believes that AQ Khan did the proliferation on his own.

2) Bad track record in completing energy projects, bad bill collections, bad payment cycles / bad credit. Bad economy.

3rd and probably the most important thing - There isn't a big enough market / or enticement for anyone to be keen on employing enough diplomatic and geo political costly currency to bring Pakistan in to the nuclear club. - why would anybody bother to do that? there's no free lunch. Going by the news and articles on PDF, their power sector revenue collection is pathetic added to their delayed and bad cyclical debt payment.

So, it means, there is no hope for them. I thought international law should be the same for every one.

 

[illusion8]

So, it means, there is no hope for them. I thought international law should be the same for every one.

End of the day it's business, Pakistani diplomacy isn't going to get them a nuclear deal - they require global players to hike up and expend diplomatic currency on their behalf and get them into an elite club. This will only happen when they have a favorable track record and not just because India got it and you desire parity. I don't see that happening until a lot of things change in Pakistan.

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

I was curious if Pakistan will use Indian precedent to push for an international deal to get advanced nuclear power plants with foreign investment as India has done plus access to world uranium market. With Pakistan's shortage of energy, is Pakistan's foreign ministry lobbying and pushing for such a deal? What are the obstacles? If a deal reached, which reactor technology Pakistan prefers to have (European, Japanese, American, Russian, Chinese. etc..)?

I believe Money. Not to be offensive. Pakistan yesterday shelved a 10*660W thermal power plant for the lack of resources and many other things. Pakistan needs to be attractive enough in securing a deal for itself. Like 10-20000Mw of power. But it doesnt require so much energy for now, nor does it have the resources to build more or fund Nuclear power plants for now and forseeable future.
Even if it gets a Nuke deal, it cannot demand the same as India, as some of Indian plants such as Kalpakkam near Chennai and Trombay will not be checked by IAEA. All other plants come under safeguards. Put it simply, it does not have the market to demand a deal. If it wants deal , it means more uranium for weapons.

 

[Daneshmand]

End of the day it's business, Pakistani diplomacy isn't going to get them a nuclear deal - they require global players to hike up and expend diplomatic currency on their behalf and get them into an elite club. This will only happen when they have a favorable track record and not just because India got it and you desire parity. I don't see that happening until a lot of things change in Pakistan.

Maybe. But if Pakistan is able to prove to the world that it is a responsible state and can transparently account for nuclear material and technology and will never transfer them to anyone else, then I do not see why Pakistan can not get the same deal. Perhaps it is going to be difficult but do-able.

I believe Money. Not to be offensive. Pakistan yesterday shelved a 10*660W thermal power plant for the lack of resources and many other things. Pakistan needs to be attractive enough in securing a deal for itself. Like 10-20000Mw of power. But it doesnt require so much energy for now, nor does it have the resources to build more or fund Nuclear power plants for now and forseeable future.
Even if it gets a Nuke deal, it cannot demand the same as India, as some of Indian plants such as Kalpakkam near Chennai and Trombay will not be checked by IAEA. All other plants come under safeguards. Put it simply, it does not have the market to demand a deal. If it wants deal , it means more uranium for weapons.

Yes, but even India is not paying for those nuclear power plants, it is all long term foreign investment. So if Pakistan could get a deal then foreign investment will follow. Also I guess India has quite stringent laws regarding the responsibility of reactor manufacturer for compensation in the unlikely event of an accident. Pakistan does not have such a law, so it is going to be even easier for foreign companies to invest if such a deal goes through.

 

[Luffy 500]

PAK won't get similar deal bcs, it doesn't have the money India has.

Even if it had the money, west won't give it such a deal since its a muslim country and giving a muslim country advance technology in areas such as nuclear energy, is something the western world will ever agree to.

PAK should rather try going for nuke plants from china and russia .And rather than concentrating on NPP, they should go for more cost effective solutions. May be it can ask for technology for coal based PP or wind or solar.

 

[salmanACCA]

What are u people talking about we are alerady getting everything we need from china without any conditions attached unlike US