A very good piece on Chinese growth figures

[Bussard Ramjet]

There are 2 parts of China's growth number that really make no sense | Business Insider India


There's this good chart on Chinese debt as well:

 

[cyrusthevirus]

China has mortgaged their future for all the growth in past.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

China has mortgaged their future for all the growth in past.

Incorrect. Also, India has quite a bit of debt overload as well.

Hence, I recommend normally, to reply only when one has information and understanding, not just to blurt out random half known truths based on one's own biased opinion.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Overall debt is irrelevant. If it wasn't, then Japan would be doomed already.

 

[cyrusthevirus]

Incorrect. Also, India has quite a bit of debt overload as well.

Hence, I recommend normally, to reply only when one has information and understanding, not just to blurt out random half known truths based on one's own biased opinion.

India's debt to GDP ratio is constant at 120 percent since years. Thats the beauty of Indian Growth story. Its is natural not forced like China. So India will have sustained growth for longer time than China.

Overall debt is irrelevant. If it wasn't, then Japan would be doomed already.

It is doomed since last 25 years. It is in deflation or near deflation. Check yesterdays growth figure for China. GDP deflator is negative. China is already in deflation.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Overall debt is irrelevant. If it wasn't, then Japan would be doomed already.

There's a huge difference. Japan's debt is highly serviceable due to zero interest rates in the country. China is not. It has to pay higher interest rates on its debt, making it expensive to sustain it, and with deflation in China, it is gonna get increasingly costly.

 

[Donald Trump]

In contrast, India's debt ratio is just 61% to China's 244%!!

 

[EAsian]

So we have bankrupt again.These endless media campaign of doomsday of China remind me the media campaign of Collapse of Euro area months ago.American and british media like to stir up the panic emotion over other countries and very good at that.

 

[tranquilium]

There are 2 parts of China's growth number that really make no sense | Business Insider India


There's this good chart on Chinese debt as well:

Haven't we already established a bit more than a week ago that the whole "overall debt" thing is BS cause if that is counted US would have 800% debt to GDP ratio? Let me quote my previous answer to corporate debt from the other thread:

"That statement would be true if "the investment return rate is consistently lower than the interest rate". The key operating word here is overcapacity industry. Hence why the long term response is shedding overcapacity (which China has been doing for the almost a decade now) and economic structure (which has been the center of Chinese economic transition we have repeated talked about in the past few years).

I assume your statement of "rough time" is related to the recent stock market plunge, (which btw, has just gotten back to 3100 points), I just need to clarify that the stock market plunge and corporate debt problem is not related because the corporate debt mainly deal with economic transition and re-structure and the stock market is an opportunistic short term investment issue.

Corporate debt and local debt in China are also two different issues. The former is generated by business' normal operation and the later deal with infrastructure investment and social benefits. Corporate debt can be roughly seen here:

Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP) | Data | Table

Where China has 147%, United States has 194%, Japan has 187%, this is three top performing nations in the world. Indeed, many of the top economies in the world has a rather large debt to GDP ratio. In fact, the ones with very small corporate debt to GDP are typically underdeveloped nations with Afghanistan having the lowest domestic credit to GDP ratio in the world.

Now while a runaway domestic credit to GDP ratio certainly isn't a good thing. Companies operating with debt is a very common practice in the real world. The real world manufacturing company operates as following: Taking loan--->setup initial asset---->as long as the company is solvent while making loan payment, taking on more loan---->setup more asset to expand your capacity--->repeat. Hence why you see all these famous companies like Ford, GE, Siemens owing banks large amount of money.

GE Leads $427 Billion of U.S. Debt Due in 2014: Credit Markets - Bloomberg Business

Would you say all these companies are doing it wrong? Of course not, that is the standard business operating procedure and Chinese companies are no exception. The difference between government debt and corporate debt is that government debt is purely a deficit and presents no benefit in the long term development of the nation, corporate debt, on the other hand, are often by-product of companies expanding its operation capacity and production assets.

Source: What Country has the Most Unsustainable Debt? (hint: not Greece) | Page 4"

BTW, you were in that thread as well. Why are you posting discredited idea like this again after merely 9 days?

In contrast, India's debt ratio is just 61% to China's 244%!!

Nope, India has higher percentage for central debt, which is the right measurement for a nation's indebtedness. If you count the supposed "total debt", of course India is lower-----corporate debt is from normal business operation and expansion and local debt is from infrastructure expansion, India has very limited international competitiveness and weak industrial sector, as well as minimum interest in infrastructure development. Of course it doesn't have much debt in this department. (BTW, the 60% is India's central debt alone. Not the supposed "total debt".)

 

[oproh]

Yes india is so great and mighty. There happy, now give me my positive rating I heard from a friend that all you have to do is praise india to get one.

 

[seven7seven]

Haha, Indians have totally given up on catching up with China. They just have daydreams of China falling down to their low level. Truly the epitome of loser mentality.

 

[Sommer]

My idea of ops behave:
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

 

[kankan326]

There's a huge difference. Japan's debt is highly serviceable due to zero interest rates in the country. China is not. It has to pay higher interest rates on its debt, making it expensive to sustain it, and with deflation in China, it is gonna get increasingly costly.

China spent huge amount of money on infrastructure. Roads, railways, dams are profitable investments.

 

[Jlaw]

@Bussard Ramjet so besides posting bogus demographic threads and China's debt, what else do you post?

@AndrewJin is it 2012 yet?

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

In contrast, India's debt ratio is just 61% to China's 244%!!

Incorrect. That is India's public debt only, one that the governments owes. China's public debt is even lower.