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A top Chinese official was arrested after talking about the biggest threat to China's economy

Aepsilons

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A key Chinese official was just arrested.

Wang Baoan, the head of China's National Bureau of Statistics, was arrested Tuesday on suspicion of "serious violations of party discipline," according to CNN.

That alone isn't that unusual, as lots of Chinese officials have been taken down during China's anticorruption campaign.

What is newsworthy about this arrest, however, is what Wang said right before it.

He was giving a speech about the risks of capital outflows, which government data showed climbed to $1 trillion in 2015.

The government had previously estimated that outflows would hit $455 billion. Way off.

China has been trying to stabilize an economy that has been (seemingly) under siege since the beginning of the year. The stock market has been a whipsaw, falling precipitously on several occasions. And China's currency, the yuan, has been volatile as well.

Government officials have acknowledged that there will be slower growth during China's transition from an investment-based economy to one based on domestic consumption. They've also said they will start enacting reforms to deal with huge problems like debt and overcapacity in the country's corporate sector.

But capital leaving the country at a rate of $1 trillion a year is an even more immediate threat than that, and the problems that caused it — a depreciating currency, for one — have not gone away.

So, in an effort to stabilize the yuan, the government has warned yuan short sellers — even the legendary (but retired) hedge fund manager George Soros — to quit it.

Keeping the yuan from depreciating too fast cost the government $108 billion in December. The more short sellers try to push it in another direction, the more money the government has to expend.

Now everyone has to fall in line.


http://www.businessinsider.com/china-official-arrested-for-economic-speech-2016-1
 
Best of luck, Wang-San.

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But capital leaving the country at a rate of $1 trillion a year is an even more immediate threat than that, and the problems that caused it — a depreciating currency, for one — have not gone away.

:disagree:
 
RMB will fall into half after 6 years when TPP come out as we predict. :)
 
RMB will fall into half after 6 years when TPP come out as we predict. :)

Well, i doubt that it would happen, my friend. Perhaps we have to analyze the reasons for the devaluation, first, before we make absurd theories !

I would like to hear your input on RMB booming ! This is a lucrative situation for all , i would say. :)
 
Well, i doubt that it would happen, my friend. Perhaps we have to analyze the reasons for the devaluation, first, before we make absurd theories !

I would like to hear your input on RMB booming ! This is a lucrative situation for all , i would say. :)
We explained many times already. Why RMB keep going down? Bcs CN must reduce its RMB to stay competitive in export sector.

When TPP come out,CN will lost the market of TPP members, things will get worse for her economy. RMB will start falling faster.

If CN dont send full support to VN like before 1975 and help VN to take control of Malacca to pose a threat to US, then CN will collapse like Soviet union.
 
If CN dont send full support to VN like before 1975 and help VN to take control of Malacca to pose a threat to US, then CN will collapse like Soviet union.


Interesting. Why would Vietnam need China's full support? I doubt Vietnam wants to side with any side, me-thinks, probably retain strategic ambiguity. Yes?

I think there was a Vietnamese saying that goes: "when two waterbuffalo fight, only the rice paddies are destroyed"
 
Well, i doubt that it would happen, my friend. Perhaps we have to analyze the reasons for the devaluation, first, before we make absurd theories !

I would like to hear your input on RMB booming ! This is a lucrative situation for all , i would say. :)

Nih, Viva is right. He knows what he's talking about and I can back up his words with facts and mathematics.

By the way, the way you talk to these Viet members are very demeaning. Please re frame from educating them because you yourself don't know the truth either.

The Chinese will run out of money. I'll be sitting here watching their ships, tanks and planes rot away.
 
Nih, Viva is right. He knows what he's talking about and I can back up his words with facts and mathematics.

Pardon me and excuse me for my -- deigning , my friend. Perhaps you can show me some mathematics to prove your point? I am afterall only a lowly student in academia.
 
Pardon me and excuse me for my -- deigning , my friend. Perhaps you can show me some mathematics to prove your point? I am afterall only a lowly student in academia.

RMB will no doubt go down, that's necessarily for China to adjust their own financial flow from an export orientated to domestic consumption, another problem associated with Chinese Economy is that they need to transform from Secondary Industry (manufacturing) to Tertiary industry (financial) and that would require a large buyback of RMB for domestic circulation, otherwise they would have to depreciate the RMB by printing more.

Another factor affecting the general economic trend is the Population, while it favor large population with industrial driven economy, it will turn population from being an asset into liability when China changing toward a financial driven economy, which would include a downsizing of work force in general and increase government spending. Having a big population does not mean they would all be working in White collar job and with factory start shutting down, those worker are either out of work (unemployed) or have to retrain, both of which will draw national resource into and a big chunk of Chinese GDP will goes toward these programs.

When you have 1.4 billion people, it's quite hard to "Trim" the work force and the government would need to have some spare cash set aside to deal with these type of problem. Which would also strain the demand of cash
 
RMB will no doubt go down, that's necessarily for China to adjust their own financial flow from an export orientated to domestic consumption, another problem associated with Chinese Economy is that they need to transform from Secondary Industry (manufacturing) to Tertiary industry (financial) and that would require a large buyback of RMB for domestic circulation, otherwise they would have to depreciate the RMB by printing more.

Another factor affecting the general economic trend is the Population, while it favor large population with industrial driven economy, it will turn population from being an asset into liability when China changing toward a financial driven economy, which would include a downsizing of work force in general and increase government spending. Having a big population does not mean they would all be working in White collar job and with factory start shutting down, those worker are either out of work (unemployed) or have to retrain, both of which will draw national resource into and a big chunk of Chinese GDP will goes toward these programs.

When you have 1.4 billion people, it's quite hard to "Trim" the work force and the government would need to have some spare cash set aside to deal with these type of problem. Which would also strain the demand of cash

An excellent appraisal, my friend. Thank You !
 
Interesting. Why would Vietnam need China's full support? I doubt Vietnam wants to side with any side, me-thinks, probably retain strategic ambiguity. Yes?

I think there was a Vietnamese saying that goes: "when two waterbuffalo fight, only the rice paddies are destroyed"
Why? Bcz we dont want tobe backstabed by CN like in 1979. CN will find a good excuse to bow down to US and beg for support if VN-Russia plan to take control of sub Mekong region again.

So,if CN dont support,then we will simply wait for her collapse, and take Sub Mekong wt help from Russia after that.:)
 
Nih, Viva is right. He knows what he's talking about and I can back up his words with facts and mathematics.

By the way, the way you talk to these Viet members are very demeaning. Please re frame from educating them because you yourself don't know the truth either.

The Chinese will run out of money. I'll be sitting here watching their ships, tanks and planes rot away.

Guess it'll be a case of use it or lose it huh?
 
Why? Bcz we dont want tobe backstabed by CN like in 1979. CN will find a good excuse to bow down to US and beg for support if VN-Russia plan to take control of sub Mekong region again.

So,if CN dont support,then we will simply wait for her collapse, and take Sub Mekong wt help from Russia after that.:)

Sub Mekong? lol. You sound like my now deceased friend @NiceGuy (well i don't know if he's actually deceaesd, but there was talks in the Viet namese members that NG-san had passed away). But you write like him, tho. lol.

Perhaps you're the reincarnated version of NG-sama? :rofl::lol:

and take Sub Mekong wt help from Russia after that.:)

With what tho? Russia's Pacific Fleet is not even 1/4th the size of PLAN's South Sea Fleet? :lol:

Sorry to burst your bubble, my friend...!
 
Nihonjin1051 said:
With what tho? Russia's Pacific Fleet is not even 1/4th the size of PLAN's South Sea Fleet? :lol:

Sorry to burst your bubble, my friend...!
No need Russia navy to take control sub Mekong wt VN. In 1979, without navy support, Soviet successfully helped VN to take control of Laos-Cam.

Of course, VN-Russia control sub Mekong is the night mare for not only US,but JP too. But no one can stop that process now.

If Mr.Xi is as smart as chairman Mao, he must give full support to VN to kick US out of Malacca before too late for CN economy :)
 
No need Russia navy to take control sub Mekong wt VN. In 1979, without navy support, Soviet successfully helped VN to take control of Laos-Cam.

Of course, VN-Russia control sub Mekong is the night mare for not only US,but JP too. But no one can stop that process now.

If Mr.Xi is as smart as chairman Mao, he must give full support to VN to kick US out of Malacca before too late for CN economy :)

Okay, my friend. Perhaps you need to calm down on the Rượu đế. :)

@Viva_Viet
 
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