Mangus Ortus Novem
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A Masterstroke by India – Creating a Calculated Dilemma for the Great Dragon
Mangus Ortus Novem
So much water has flown in Ganges and Yangtze without any fuss or care about both India and China that many droughts, many lives could have been saved. Yet, everyday there is a new thread about the so-called Sino-Indian stand-off.
To say that there is no stand-off is an understatement and doesn’t do justice to the Indian strategy. As strategy which has been long in the making, with each scenario thoroughly analysed and well-rehearsed. The credit must be given where it is due. And given it must.
China was taken by utter surprise and disbelief that ensued has now given way to clod realisation that India has decided that it has come of age and now will challenge the Dragon head on every front as equal if not morally superior.
Be it OBOR (with CPEC as convenient excuse), be it Eurasian integration through Sino-Rus SCO or be it overall global financial architecture that both China and Russia are so avidly pursuing for some time now. India has decided to come into its own and make its presence felt globally. What better way that directly challenging the emerging global centre of financial and geo-economic gravity.
All the signs were there… be it CPEC related protests or sudden love for Balochistan. Or trying to bring China’s right arm in South Asia, ME and OIC – Pakistan through all means necessary, media, diplomacy or covert actions all and more. It has nothing to do with Pakistan and all the do with China. By going full frontal on Pak, Indians estimated that the right arm of China will become manageable thus weakening the Chinese strategic stranglehold on India from the South Asian box.
The dedicated media and military pronouncements about two front war and later 2.5 front wars should have been noted by the PRC thinkers and analysts. Dalai Lama’s visit to South Tibet and that too with US man… signs were there.
The growing geo-political and military-technical in strategic terms between the US and India combined with Asian Pivot strategy.. concerts of democracies and all that jazz… was obviously understood by the PRC for what it was and is.
The NK, SCS and ECS together with key events in the PRC’s diplomatic and national calendar where too opportune a moment to let go for the scenarios that the Indians have been war-gaming for some time now.
China truly underestimated the urge Indians have been feeling and showing to be treated as equal to PRC is every aspect. By providing two notifications to Indians of pending road construction, the PRC thought that it was going by the book and apart from SOP response from the Indian MEA nothing unmanageable will occur. Bhutan is just smoke screen and everyone knows it. No need to waste a breath on this one.
By its forceful action and that too in the Chinese territory the Indians have thrown a complex challenge to the Dragon. Since, PRC is preoccupied with so many issues and challenges in this timeframe timing could have not been better for the Indian strategists. So, hats need to tipped to the Indians on this one.
Yet every crisis is an opportunity to the cultivated Chinese Mind. This current and blatant challenge by India offers great rewards laced with greater risks. Patience, forbearance and benign neglect? Or restoring the pecking order?
That there is an inevitable conflict between the Dragon and the Elephant is a given. It is question of opportune moment. There can be only one dominant actor in the crowded neighbourhood.
It is also natural for a state a India to create more strategic space for itself to realise its global ambitions and rightful potential. It is a question of timing, fruits of brilliant execution devoid of rhetoric.
In the current scenario the Indians win if China does nothing. And next time the Indians will feel more ‘empowered’ to act with more resolve. In such a case, the PRC will not only loose face in front of the Chinese people but also in North East Asia, South East Asia and Africa. A new Pandora’s box to be opened and to be put back by China then. All the decades of meticulous planning and unmatched execution goes to waste. Can it be acceptable to China?
In case restoring the pecking order and forcing Indians out of the Chinese territory will deliver so many political benefits to Mr. Modi both in domestic and international arena that this will be godsend. And there is also a very large NRI and military-equipment-for-profit Indian eco-system that stand to benefit from such an outcome.
India has calculated that it has only to gain by its self-assured, muscular and strategic action. So, far it has only created problem for China and benefits for India’s ruling elite.
However, the fundamental question that needs avid thought is whether China allow itself to be utilised as such as the Indian strategists have calculated?
Please, remember it is not about Bhutan or that barren strip of land. It is about India directly challenging China and trying to change the status quo in Asia and Africa. Does anyone still remember the Indo-Japanese counter plan to OBOR?
What are the benefits China is going to get from this Dilemma, courtesy of our Indian friends?
Mangus Ortus Novem
So much water has flown in Ganges and Yangtze without any fuss or care about both India and China that many droughts, many lives could have been saved. Yet, everyday there is a new thread about the so-called Sino-Indian stand-off.
To say that there is no stand-off is an understatement and doesn’t do justice to the Indian strategy. As strategy which has been long in the making, with each scenario thoroughly analysed and well-rehearsed. The credit must be given where it is due. And given it must.
China was taken by utter surprise and disbelief that ensued has now given way to clod realisation that India has decided that it has come of age and now will challenge the Dragon head on every front as equal if not morally superior.
Be it OBOR (with CPEC as convenient excuse), be it Eurasian integration through Sino-Rus SCO or be it overall global financial architecture that both China and Russia are so avidly pursuing for some time now. India has decided to come into its own and make its presence felt globally. What better way that directly challenging the emerging global centre of financial and geo-economic gravity.
All the signs were there… be it CPEC related protests or sudden love for Balochistan. Or trying to bring China’s right arm in South Asia, ME and OIC – Pakistan through all means necessary, media, diplomacy or covert actions all and more. It has nothing to do with Pakistan and all the do with China. By going full frontal on Pak, Indians estimated that the right arm of China will become manageable thus weakening the Chinese strategic stranglehold on India from the South Asian box.
The dedicated media and military pronouncements about two front war and later 2.5 front wars should have been noted by the PRC thinkers and analysts. Dalai Lama’s visit to South Tibet and that too with US man… signs were there.
The growing geo-political and military-technical in strategic terms between the US and India combined with Asian Pivot strategy.. concerts of democracies and all that jazz… was obviously understood by the PRC for what it was and is.
The NK, SCS and ECS together with key events in the PRC’s diplomatic and national calendar where too opportune a moment to let go for the scenarios that the Indians have been war-gaming for some time now.
China truly underestimated the urge Indians have been feeling and showing to be treated as equal to PRC is every aspect. By providing two notifications to Indians of pending road construction, the PRC thought that it was going by the book and apart from SOP response from the Indian MEA nothing unmanageable will occur. Bhutan is just smoke screen and everyone knows it. No need to waste a breath on this one.
By its forceful action and that too in the Chinese territory the Indians have thrown a complex challenge to the Dragon. Since, PRC is preoccupied with so many issues and challenges in this timeframe timing could have not been better for the Indian strategists. So, hats need to tipped to the Indians on this one.
Yet every crisis is an opportunity to the cultivated Chinese Mind. This current and blatant challenge by India offers great rewards laced with greater risks. Patience, forbearance and benign neglect? Or restoring the pecking order?
That there is an inevitable conflict between the Dragon and the Elephant is a given. It is question of opportune moment. There can be only one dominant actor in the crowded neighbourhood.
It is also natural for a state a India to create more strategic space for itself to realise its global ambitions and rightful potential. It is a question of timing, fruits of brilliant execution devoid of rhetoric.
In the current scenario the Indians win if China does nothing. And next time the Indians will feel more ‘empowered’ to act with more resolve. In such a case, the PRC will not only loose face in front of the Chinese people but also in North East Asia, South East Asia and Africa. A new Pandora’s box to be opened and to be put back by China then. All the decades of meticulous planning and unmatched execution goes to waste. Can it be acceptable to China?
In case restoring the pecking order and forcing Indians out of the Chinese territory will deliver so many political benefits to Mr. Modi both in domestic and international arena that this will be godsend. And there is also a very large NRI and military-equipment-for-profit Indian eco-system that stand to benefit from such an outcome.
India has calculated that it has only to gain by its self-assured, muscular and strategic action. So, far it has only created problem for China and benefits for India’s ruling elite.
However, the fundamental question that needs avid thought is whether China allow itself to be utilised as such as the Indian strategists have calculated?
Please, remember it is not about Bhutan or that barren strip of land. It is about India directly challenging China and trying to change the status quo in Asia and Africa. Does anyone still remember the Indo-Japanese counter plan to OBOR?
What are the benefits China is going to get from this Dilemma, courtesy of our Indian friends?
