LeveragedBuyout
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@TaiShang I haven't read Rifkin's book, but I agree with the author that we need to be cautious about accepting his predictions. First, his timeline of zero marginal cost in energy by 2028 is wildly optimistic, and probably wrong. @FairAndUnbiased can probably shed more light on this issue (I do like my puns).
But the rest of the author's assertions are in line with my thinking: marginal costs may fall (there is no such thing as zero marginal cost), but initial investments of fixed costs will skyrocket, which means that the world will gradually be divided into those who have the capital to benefit from this new society, and those who are left behind. As the author points out, one needs to buy all of the equipment necessary to make the zero marginal cost products that he envisions, but 3-d printers don't appear magically, they must be purchased. This elimination of the need for unskilled labor will have social costs that must be factored in (e.g. increased welfare, increased education costs, increased law enforcement spending, etc.), so the costs may decrease in one area, but they will increase in another.
Also, I'm no expert on 3-D printers, but can they produce entire systems, or just components? Won't assembly still be required by a skilled labor force? A 3-d printer cannot print a functioning 3-d printer, can it? But we can see a world in which 3-d printing combined with robotics will eliminate the majority of the labor force, which is a frightening prospect. Maybe the holders of capital will print their own robotic private armies to defend themselves from the mobs of starving unemployed people, but somehow I don't see a bright future in this. We haven't even touched on how all of this is leading to a Skynet-like outcome.
I don't consider myself a luddite by any means, but somehow, this revolution of energy, information, and automation seems different, and more dangerous.
But the rest of the author's assertions are in line with my thinking: marginal costs may fall (there is no such thing as zero marginal cost), but initial investments of fixed costs will skyrocket, which means that the world will gradually be divided into those who have the capital to benefit from this new society, and those who are left behind. As the author points out, one needs to buy all of the equipment necessary to make the zero marginal cost products that he envisions, but 3-d printers don't appear magically, they must be purchased. This elimination of the need for unskilled labor will have social costs that must be factored in (e.g. increased welfare, increased education costs, increased law enforcement spending, etc.), so the costs may decrease in one area, but they will increase in another.
Also, I'm no expert on 3-D printers, but can they produce entire systems, or just components? Won't assembly still be required by a skilled labor force? A 3-d printer cannot print a functioning 3-d printer, can it? But we can see a world in which 3-d printing combined with robotics will eliminate the majority of the labor force, which is a frightening prospect. Maybe the holders of capital will print their own robotic private armies to defend themselves from the mobs of starving unemployed people, but somehow I don't see a bright future in this. We haven't even touched on how all of this is leading to a Skynet-like outcome.
I don't consider myself a luddite by any means, but somehow, this revolution of energy, information, and automation seems different, and more dangerous.