2014 Afghan Elections: Round 2

[nangyale]

Leading candidates raise the stakes in Afghan elections
By David Loyn BBC News, Kabul

Both Mr Abdullah and his main rival say they want as resounding a democratic mandate as possible

Both of the leading candidates in Afghanistan's presidential election have ruled out a deal and say they want to contest a second round if neither wins outright.

Official results are still some days away, but campaign officials have been carrying out their own counts.

Abdullah Abdullah has been more reluctant than Ashraf Ghani to give a figure for his vote, but he told the BBC that he was confident that he was doing "better than every other candidate".

If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, there will be a second round in May, unless one stands aside.

There had been speculation that there might be a deal, but Dr Abdullah has now told the BBC that "the people should be given a chance".

Ashraf Ghani insists that he is on course for outright victory

Dr Ghani, who insists that he has won more than 50% of votes cast, made his position about a possible run-off race clear in an earlier BBC interview, saying the public should not be deprived of their voice.

"There has to be a clear winner," he said.

The results collected by candidates come from counts posted outside polling centres after counts on Saturday and Sunday.

The ballot boxes were then sent for verification to the Independent Election Commission (IEC) in Kabul, the official body overseeing the process. Officials there have privately expressed concern about candidates speaking so openly ahead of official results.

The IEC will not publish any results until they have them from an even geographical spread of at least 20 provinces.

A separate body, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), will assess complaints and issue rulings, which could involve fining candidates or declaring ballots ineligible.

Tight security has been in place before and after the vote

Officials have been working to ensure the process is seen as independent

The head of the Electoral Complaints Commission says that he is determined that the vote be as free and fair as possible

The ECC held a public hearing where the vice-presidential candidates for six of the eight campaigns made their complaints. Dr Abdullah's deputy Mohammed Khan had the longest list of complaints.

These ranged from shortage of ballot papers to alleged widespread corruption, with voters told to go home because ballot papers were already filled in.

Many of these complaints related to Kandahar, Zabul and Paktia - three frontier provinces in the south-east.....

 

[dawn_news]

In 2nd round only top 2 contest?

 

[Marwat Khan Lodhi]

Ashraf ghani should win.

 

[nangyale]

Afghan election set for run-off vote

Presidential election set for second-round vote as none of the candidates secure a decisive victory.


Afghanistan's presidential election is set to go to a second round run-off between former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah and ex-World Bank economist Ashraf Ghani after none of the candidates won an absolute majority.

The vote will choose a successor to outgoing President Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan's first democratic transfer of power.

The eventual winner will have to oversee the fight against a resilient Taliban insurgency as 51,000 US-led troops depart this year, as well as strengthen an economy that relies on declining aid money.

"Based on our results, it appears that the election goes to the second round," Ahmad Yusuf Nuristani, head of the Independent Election Commission, was quoted by the AFP news agency as saying on Saturday.

Preliminary results showed Abdullah finishing top with 44.9 percent, followed by Ghani with 31.5 percent, and Zalmay Rassoul a distant third with 11.5 percent, according to the Independent Election Commission.

As no candidate gained more than 50 percent, a run-off between the two leading names is required under the Afghan constitution.

The final official result is set to be announced on May 14 after a period for adjudication of hundreds of complaints over alleged fraud.

A election chief told AFP a second round run-off would take place on June 7.

Eight men ran in the election, with polling day hailed a success by Afghan officials and foreign allies as the Taliban failed to launch a major attack despite threats to disrupt the vote.

"The election went pretty good, we are satisfied with it and I think we are prepared if it goes to the second round," Nuristani said.

Fraud allegations

Another expensive, and potentially violent, election could be avoided by negotiations between the candidates in the coming weeks, but Abdullah has dismissed talks of a possible power-sharing deal.

Ghani has also vowed to fight on in a run-off.

Serious fraud allegations are being investigated in the vote and Saturday's announcement is expected to be followed by fierce debate over disputed voting papers, ballot-box stuffing and other cheating allegations.

Preliminary results were delayed by two days due to fraud investigations, with officials vowing to sift out all suspect votes before they were counted.

Karzai, who has ruled since the Islamist Taliban regime was ousted in 2001, is constitutionally barred from serving a third term.

 

[nangyale]

Afghan elections: Ex-rival joins front-runner Abdullah

Abdullah Abdullah is expected to face Ashraf Ghani in the run-off

The Afghan presidential election front-runner, Abdullah Abdullah, has won the backing of a key rival, forming the contest's first major coalition.

Zalmai Rassoul, the successor favoured by outgoing President Hamid Karzai, pledged his support for Mr Abdullah, the top candidate from the first round.


The second and final round, due in mid-June, pits Mr Abdullah against Ashraf Ghani, a former World Bank economist.

The vote comes as international forces prepare to leave at the end of 2014.

Partial results have shown that none of the eight candidates won the 50% needed to claim outright victory, forcing the two top-ranked contenders - Mr Abdullah and Mr Ghani - into a second round.

Mr Rassoul, a former foreign minister, was no longer in the running for the presidency, having come third in the first round with just over 11% of the vote.

An influential power-broker, he is expected to boost Mr Abdullah's chances.


The announcement of a final official result from the first round is due on Wednesday. It has been held up by adjudication in fraud claims.

 

[nangyale]

Afghan runoff in a dead heat
The runoff in the Afghan presidential election set for June 14 pits the two frontrunners Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and Dr. Ashraf Ghani against each other. The advantage may seem to lie with Abdullah who polled 44.9 percent of the votes in the first round on April 5, just short of a clear-cut victory, as compared to Ghani’s 31.6 percent. But appearances can be deceptive.
The point is, the ethnic Pashtun vote splintered in the first round among many Pashtun candidates, while in the second runoff, the choice may coalesce around Ghani who is a Pashtun candidate, unlike his opponent Abdullah who is perceived as ‘Tajik’. That makes the runoff rather tight for Abdullah and its outcome probably quite controversial.
Abdullah has secured the backing of ex-foreign minister Zalmai Rassoul (Pashtun) who took 11.5 percent in the first round, but it is not as if the latter’s supporters will vote en bloc for Abdullah.
Indeed, Pakistan’s preference becomes a major factor here. Islamabad will be greatly relieved that President Hamid Karzai is leaving the scene. Karzai was never trusted by Pakistan, given his undisguised fondness for India.
Besides, Karzai belonged to the powerful Popalzai tribe, whereas, Ghani, although Pashtun, has a Kuchi background. Historically, the Kuchis, a nomadic tribe, have never really been involved in the politics of the country.
Pakistan officially maintains that it is neutral vis-a-vis the Afghan presidential election and things appeared so in the first round. But the runoff compels Pakistan to make a choice and the indications are that Pakistan prefers a Ghani presidency.
Interestingly, Hezb-e-Islami has come out openly in support of Ghani in the runoff. Alhaj Wahidullah Sabawoon who announced this a week ago used to be Hezb-e-Islami’s former military director and general director of intelligence — plainly put, he is a key aide to Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and used to be the Pakistani intelligence agency ISI’s field commander.
Why Ghani? For one thing, the Kuchis have close links with Pakistan. Secondly, Abdullah is a seasoned politician, a Panjshiri and a staunch nationalist with a record of being resentful toward Pakistani interference in Afghanistan (and has enjoyed a close trusted relationship with India for two decades almost), whereas, Ghani will be more malleable, being a technocrat-politician lacking a power base among the powerful Kandahari Pashtun tribes.
Clearly, Pakistan’s objective will be four-fold: a) Work toward creating a weak presidency in Kabul; b) Insert the Taliban into the Afghan power structure in Kabul and at the provincial level as part of a deal on ‘power-sharing’ and on ‘broad-basing’ the government; c) Bring in groups that are totally under Pakistan’s control such as Hezb-e-Islami to handle security in the southern provinces straddling the border; and, d) Stymie India’s influence in Kabul.
The prospect of a Hindu nationalist government in India gives great urgency to the Pakistani blueprint, which will of course be projected on the propaganda front as a reasonable, conciliatory approach by a well-meaning neighbor who genuinely wishes to see a ‘broad-based’ and ‘inclusive’ government taking shape in Kabul in the interests of enduring peace and stability in Afghanistan. The Obama administration’s distractions in the Asia-Pacific, Eurasia and the Middle East most certainly work to Pakistan’s advantage. (WSJ).