LeveragedBuyout
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After conferring with @Nihonjin1051 , I am opening this thread to discuss geopolitical and economic issues that do not fit well into the existing specialized forums that already exist on PDF. I will start the conversation with a topical article from a few days ago:
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/09/05/turkey-latin-america-lead-em-vulnerability-ranking/
Turkey, Latin America lead EM vulnerability ranking
Sep 5, 2014 6:50pmby James Kynge
10
US jobs growth slowed in August, contradicting a host of other data showing strength in the world’s largest economy. Nevertheless, the weak data is unlikely to sway the US Federal Reserve from hiking rates next year, though it is possible that its language may now turn a little less hawkish.
So while US monetary tightening remains in prospect, it makes sense to assess which EM countries have worked hard to shore up their vulnerabilities to prepare for the receding tides of liquidity – and which have failed to do so.
The chart below shows stark geographical divisions. Frailties have deepened in five out of six selected Latin American countries but receded in five out of six economies in emerging Europe and Africa, and in two out of three Asian nations, according to four criteria selected by Capital Economics.

Source: Capital Economics
Capital Economics chose to look at vulnerabilities only in those EM countries that run a current account deficit, since those economies rely most heavily on external financing and are therefore most susceptible to a drying up of global liquidity. These were also the countries hit in previous “taper tantrums” last year and early this year.
Aside from the current account, the other three areas of exposure to dwindling liquidity are short-term external debt (which requires international financing), foreign currency reserves (which reveal the extent of dependency on capital inflows) and real interest rates (the higher they are, the easier it is to attract international capital).
“While we don’t expect the Fed to jump on the brakes, we do expect it to raise rates sooner than most in the market expect (our forecast is March 2015) and, ultimately, by more than most in the market expect,” said Capital Economics in a report on Friday.
“Against this backdrop, there is a clear possibility of renewed turbulence in EM financial markets,” the report added.
Turkey looks most vulnerableOf these four yardsticks, the most crucial is the current account deficit – and on this measure, many EM economies are in a stronger position than they were a year ago. The exceptions are Turkey, Brazil, Colombia and Argentina (see chart).
Turkey has the largest current account deficit, at more than 6 per cent of GDP, while South Africa, Peru and Brazil also look shaky.

Source: Capital Economics
The outlook for Turkey is similarly bleak when their short-term domestic debt is considered. Not only has this increased from a year ago, it is high as a proportion of GDP (see chart).

Source: Capital Economics
So is the EM rally in danger?Investors in EM stocks and bonds have prospered since the last “taper tantrum” began to abate in February, with the MSCI EM index up 20 per cent since its February low and overall yields on EM sovereign debt down 0.7 per cent to 5.4 per cent in the year to date.
So, is there a danger that market conditions could soon deteriorate. Of course, there are a variety of opinions, but for many the key yardstick is the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond.
“Wake me up when the 10-year (US Treasury) hits 3 per cent,” said Benoit Anne, head of emerging markets strategy at SocGen. “Until then, I am setting my ‘buy global emerging markets’ signal on automatic pilot.”
“In my empirical study about the impact of higher US rates on EM, I showed that only a 55bp US Treasury shock is large enough and even then, the conclusion is very mixed on the market response in EM,” added Anne. “In other words, the EM rally is well alive and kicking, and will only come to a stop when we hit the valuation walls.”

Source: Thomson Reuters
The chart above shows that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond today was considerably lower than the 3 per cent level, at 2.38 per cent.
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/09/05/turkey-latin-america-lead-em-vulnerability-ranking/
Turkey, Latin America lead EM vulnerability ranking
Sep 5, 2014 6:50pmby James Kynge
10
US jobs growth slowed in August, contradicting a host of other data showing strength in the world’s largest economy. Nevertheless, the weak data is unlikely to sway the US Federal Reserve from hiking rates next year, though it is possible that its language may now turn a little less hawkish.
So while US monetary tightening remains in prospect, it makes sense to assess which EM countries have worked hard to shore up their vulnerabilities to prepare for the receding tides of liquidity – and which have failed to do so.
The chart below shows stark geographical divisions. Frailties have deepened in five out of six selected Latin American countries but receded in five out of six economies in emerging Europe and Africa, and in two out of three Asian nations, according to four criteria selected by Capital Economics.

Source: Capital Economics
Capital Economics chose to look at vulnerabilities only in those EM countries that run a current account deficit, since those economies rely most heavily on external financing and are therefore most susceptible to a drying up of global liquidity. These were also the countries hit in previous “taper tantrums” last year and early this year.
Aside from the current account, the other three areas of exposure to dwindling liquidity are short-term external debt (which requires international financing), foreign currency reserves (which reveal the extent of dependency on capital inflows) and real interest rates (the higher they are, the easier it is to attract international capital).
“While we don’t expect the Fed to jump on the brakes, we do expect it to raise rates sooner than most in the market expect (our forecast is March 2015) and, ultimately, by more than most in the market expect,” said Capital Economics in a report on Friday.
“Against this backdrop, there is a clear possibility of renewed turbulence in EM financial markets,” the report added.
Turkey looks most vulnerableOf these four yardsticks, the most crucial is the current account deficit – and on this measure, many EM economies are in a stronger position than they were a year ago. The exceptions are Turkey, Brazil, Colombia and Argentina (see chart).
Turkey has the largest current account deficit, at more than 6 per cent of GDP, while South Africa, Peru and Brazil also look shaky.

Source: Capital Economics
The outlook for Turkey is similarly bleak when their short-term domestic debt is considered. Not only has this increased from a year ago, it is high as a proportion of GDP (see chart).

Source: Capital Economics
So is the EM rally in danger?Investors in EM stocks and bonds have prospered since the last “taper tantrum” began to abate in February, with the MSCI EM index up 20 per cent since its February low and overall yields on EM sovereign debt down 0.7 per cent to 5.4 per cent in the year to date.
So, is there a danger that market conditions could soon deteriorate. Of course, there are a variety of opinions, but for many the key yardstick is the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond.
“Wake me up when the 10-year (US Treasury) hits 3 per cent,” said Benoit Anne, head of emerging markets strategy at SocGen. “Until then, I am setting my ‘buy global emerging markets’ signal on automatic pilot.”
“In my empirical study about the impact of higher US rates on EM, I showed that only a 55bp US Treasury shock is large enough and even then, the conclusion is very mixed on the market response in EM,” added Anne. “In other words, the EM rally is well alive and kicking, and will only come to a stop when we hit the valuation walls.”

Source: Thomson Reuters
The chart above shows that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond today was considerably lower than the 3 per cent level, at 2.38 per cent.