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Biden Skips Jakarta: When (Not) Showing Up Speaks Volumes

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President Joe Biden

President Joe Biden will miss the East Asia Summit in Jakarta next month and will travel instead to the G20 meetings in New Delhi and Hanoi. (Photo: SAUL LOEB / AFP)


In the 1980s political satire Yes Prime Minister, the British Prime Minister is asked how much time he would want to allocate to meet the New Zealand High Commissioner. His mind occupied thinking of something else, he mumbles, “72 hours.” His principal private secretary said — quite correctly — that this was “a bit generous”.

Diplomats in ASEAN and Indonesia, the grouping’s 2023 chair, must be feeling like the fictional Kiwi ambassador, now that it has been confirmed that U.S. President Joe Biden will miss the East Asia Summit in Jakarta next month. He is dispatching Vice President Kamala Harris in his place and will travel instead to the G20 meetings in New Delhi and onward to Hanoi.

American officials are quick to defend the decision, saying that U.S. policies towards Southeast Asia are constant and on an upward trajectory. This is true, to an extent. At a time of greater Sino-U.S. friction and the two powers’ corresponding bids to woo and influence Southeast Asian countries, however, Biden brushing off Indonesia, the host of the ASEAN-related Summits, speaks volumes.

Granted, one can see the logic behind the decision. In American eyes, India — and its participation in the four-member Quadrilateral Security Dialogue — is key to managing the challenges posed by China. This is so much so that India’s perceived transgressions — not condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reselling Russian gas, and aligning with China and Russia in the BRICS — have been overlooked.

Like India, Vietnam also stands on the frontlines in the U.S.-led bid to counter China along its periphery. And compared to other Southeast Asian countries that are inclined towards the U.S., such as Singapore and the Philippines, there is more upside in the U.S.-Vietnam relationship. Biden will be rewarded with an upgrade of Washington’s relationship with Vietnam to a strategic partnership in Hanoi.

The case for Biden skipping ASEAN-related summits in Jakarta falls apart if one examines the optics and underlying concerns in Southeast Asia about U.S. engagement in the region.

Giving Indonesia a miss is a bad idea. This year, Indonesia is the ASEAN Chair and incidentally the grouping’s country coordinator of ASEAN-U.S. relations. Indonesia had adjusted ASEAN’s calendar to take advantage of Biden’s travel to India in order to secure his attendance at the East Asia Summit.

Skipping out on a trip to Jakarta is a signal to outgoing President Jokowi that Indonesia is simply not on the Administration’s radar. But it should be. When forced to choose, more Indonesians deem that ASEAN should choose China rather than the United States. In the State of Southeast Asia Survey 2023, the percentage of Indonesians choosing the U.S. has fallen from 64.3 per cent in 2021 to 46.3 per cent in 2023. In the same period, the corresponding figure for those choosing China has risen from 35.7 per cent to 53.7 per cent.

“Biden’s attendance at ASEAN summits is not everything, but it is important,” said a senior Indonesia academic at a Jakarta conference recently. This is where Biden’s predecessor, Obama, excelled at pressing the flesh and kissing babies — for strategic reasons. When he visited Jakarta in 2010, university students lined the streets to greet him. To this day, the Indonesian capital has a “nasi goreng gila Obama” (Obama crazy fried rice) eatery opposite the elementary school that the president attended as a child.

Obama had shown seriousness towards ASEAN by signing on to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in 2009. He ended his term hosting the special U.S.-ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in Sunnylands in 2016 — a high point in U.S.-ASEAN relations. He met all 10 ASEAN leaders in his first year and a total of six timesacross his two terms, and travelled to the region seven times separately (more than twice that of any sitting U.S. president). He only missed the East Asia Summit once in 2013 during a government shutdown. This was truly demonstrative of Washington’s “tilt” to Asia and the Pacific, more than any strategy or document can put into words.


Washington should be mindful that the Sino-U.S. race to win friends and influence people in Southeast Asia is dynamic.


Biden’s achievements on this score are fewer. He hosted the second special US-ASEAN Summit last year in Washington DC where he met nine of the ASEAN leaders and then went on to elevate relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership at the end of last year. He attended the East Asia Summit in 2021 (virtually) and 2022, but has scarcely visited the region.

There are also deeper issues. Privately, American diplomats grumble that ASEAN countries are too amicable towards China and that the grouping’s processes are tardy and chock-full of ASEAN-esque gobbledygook. Cynics also note that external powers such as the U.S. (and China, France and the United Kingdom) mouth the shibboleths of ASEAN centrality to get a “free pass” into the club, after which they bob and weave and do their own thing. The U.S.’ much-touted mini-laterals — the Quad, the AUKUS, and more recently, the Japan-Korea-U.S. trilateral — are notable examples.

Given China’s deep economic links with the region, the U.S. also has much catching up to do after its withdrawal from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2017. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is Washington’s next-best option for regional states, but it is still a work in progress. A recently released report by the U.S.-based Asia Society argued that Washington needs to up its economic game by considering a U.S.-ASEAN free trade agreement.

Granted, these are issues that a Biden visit to Jakarta will not resolve. Washington, however, should be mindful that the Sino-U.S. race to win friends and influence people in Southeast Asia is dynamic. Posture may not make policy but meeting in-person is nonetheless important and appreciated. Xi Jinping, for example, launched a charm offensive towards the region earlier this year, which was received largely positively.

In the end, perceptions and optics matter. It is said that relationships need constant gardening. In this case, Biden’s decision to brush off Jakarta is tantamount to Washington taking gardening leave on the U.S.-ASEAN relationship.

 
Washington should be mindful that the Sino-U.S. race to win friends and influence people in Southeast Asia is dynamic.

Is this really a useful suggestion when China does the heavy lifting by regularly banging or threatening boats and ships of Southeast Asian countries?
 
Washington should be mindful that the Sino-U.S. race to win friends and influence people in Southeast Asia is dynamic.

Is this really a useful suggestion when China does the heavy lifting by regularly banging or threatening boats and ships of Southeast Asian countries?
Yes and no. the Far east is much divided.
Pro US: Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore
Pro China: the others from North Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia to Cambodia.
Chinese tactic is offering trade benefits with its giant domestic market in exchange for territory. If anyone refuses to give up territory Ccp will come with cheap propaganda, ancient maps, water cannons and guns. On the other side the US offers security and market.
 
Pro China: the others from North Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia to Cambodia.
Chinese tactic is offering trade benefits with its giant domestic market in exchange for territory. While the US offers security and market.
So, the 'Pro-China' don't mind their boats blockaded and water cannoned etc., to get 'giant domestic market'. if so, they should enjoy the special relationship.
 
So, the 'Pro-China' don't mind their boats blockaded and water cannoned etc., to get 'giant domestic market'. if so, they should enjoy the special relationship.
Dont be too swallow when you read any news. Be critical as person.

The victim of Chinese aggressiveness is only Philippine and Vietnam.

Indonesia drilled huge new gas field inside China 9 dash line and China did protest but not doing anything beside the protesting. The gas will be exported to Vietnam and we have signed contract with the Vietnamese, in 2027 or 2028 the gas will be on stream based on the plan.

@Viet understand which gas field that I am talking to.
 
Dont be too swallow when you read any news. Be critical as person.

The victim of Chinese aggressiveness is only Philippine and Vietnam.

Indonesia drilled huge new gas field inside China 9 dash line and China did protest but not doing anything beside the protesting. The gas will be exported to Vietnam and we have signed contract with the Vietnamese, in 2027 or 2028 the gas will be on stream based on the plan.

@Viet understand which gas field that I am talking to.
Since there is no special reason, tomorrow, the protest may turn into green laser or water cannon treatment. What guarantee the protest will remain toothless?
 
Since there is no special reason, tomorrow, the protest may turn into green laser or water cannon treatment. What guarantee the protest will remain toothless?
You dont understand geopolitics do you ?

Chinese is not dumb. Chinese is surrounded by pro West Japan, SK, and Taiwan.

Indonesia is the only country within 5 biggest Asians countries economically (China, Japan, India, South Korea, Indonesia) that is not hostile to China. All of them are located in Indo Pacifics region where China is located.

The dispute between Indonesia and China in 9 dash line is also in the edge of China 9 dash claim.

Indonesia also controls Malacca Straits, Sunda Straits, Makassar Straits, and you need to understand our huge Natuna sea territory ( based on UNCLOS for archipelago country) is the gate of Malacca and Sunda Straits as well.

Think as a good strategist
 
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Dont be too swallow when you read any news. Be critical as person.

The victim of Chinese aggressiveness is only Philippine and Vietnam.

Indonesia drilled huge new gas field inside China 9 dash line and China did protest but not doing anything beside the protesting. The gas will be exported to Vietnam and we have signed contract with the Vietnamese, in 2027 or 2028 the gas will be on stream based on the plan.

@Viet understand which gas field that I am talking to.
Yes via pipeline in 2026 from Indonesia tuna block
You are lucky. Indonesia is ocean away. We share with the Chinese a common land border. That’s why we still have watch towers along common border to China since 2,000 years.

1693463409739.png


 
Yes via pipeline in 2026 from Indonesia tuna block
You are lucky. Indonesia is ocean away. We share with the Chinese a common land border. That’s why we still have watch towers along common border to China since 2,000 years.

View attachment 950005

Gas is really important in this future green economy. We still have gigantic Natuna Alpha D gas field that I think some of the gas will be exported to Vietnam as well, I think in 2030's above it is likely on stream.

For future domestic demand I think we will rely on gas field that is near our main islands like in Andaman, Abadi, and also likely in Warim Papua.
 
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It's funny that young countries like Vietnam and Philippine are protesting over South China Sea.

While forget Republic of China (Taiwan) was established far before Vietnam and Philippine exist.

The late comers should set their border based on the already being established border, not vice versa.

Under the same wrong principle, Singapore can also claim USA is stealing Singapore land in USA. I can also claim it as well.

Western media is Western media as usual, lying every day, inventing narrative instead of speaking the reality.
 
Gas is really important in this future green economy. We still have gigantic Natuna Alpha D gas field that I think some of the gas will be exported to Vietnam as well, I think in 2030's above it is likely on stream.

For future domestic demand I think we will rely on gas field that is near our main islands like in Andaman, Abadi, and also likely in Warim Papua.
Yes we need to import lots of gas. Indonesia is the national choice. Plus, natural gas is considered as green. When gas is burned it emits the same CO2 as it consumed. Without gas imports Vietnam would never reach the planned capacity of 158 GW in 7 years.
 
The real reason behind Biden skipping the meet may be reluctance of some ASEAN states, & ASEAN as a whole to condemn the water cannon incident in Philippines. Even countries like SK, and India which generally keep a low profile on such matters spoke out.
 
Yes and no. the Far east is much divided.
Pro US: Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore
Pro China: the others from North Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia to Cambodia.
Chinese tactic is offering trade benefits with its giant domestic market in exchange for territory. If anyone refuses to give up territory Ccp will come with cheap propaganda, ancient maps, water cannons and guns. On the other side the US offers security and market.

Are you dreaming?

Vietnam has never been pro-US. So yellow-flagged nail workers in California may be, but absolute majority of Vietnam are not.

Vietnam is not Germany and Vietnamese is far different to German. Telling lies a millions times do not make the lie become truth.

And for your information, the new US embassy project in Hanoi, has seen no progress since Blinken made a trip to Hanoi for ground breaking ceremony.
 
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It's funny that young countries like Vietnam and Philippine are protesting over South China Sea.

While forget Republic of China (Taiwan) was established far before Vietnam and Philippine exist.

The late comers should set their border based on the already being established border, not vice versa.

Under the same wrong principle, Singapore can also claim USA is stealing Singapore land in USA. I can also claim it as well.

Western media is Western media as usual, lying every day, inventing narrative instead of speaking the reality.
Please don’t spew fakes. Taiwan exists before Vietnam? Google Namviet. That well exists longer than Ccp.
 
President Joe Biden

President Joe Biden will miss the East Asia Summit in Jakarta next month and will travel instead to the G20 meetings in New Delhi and Hanoi. (Photo: SAUL LOEB / AFP)


In the 1980s political satire Yes Prime Minister, the British Prime Minister is asked how much time he would want to allocate to meet the New Zealand High Commissioner. His mind occupied thinking of something else, he mumbles, “72 hours.” His principal private secretary said — quite correctly — that this was “a bit generous”.

Diplomats in ASEAN and Indonesia, the grouping’s 2023 chair, must be feeling like the fictional Kiwi ambassador, now that it has been confirmed that U.S. President Joe Biden will miss the East Asia Summit in Jakarta next month. He is dispatching Vice President Kamala Harris in his place and will travel instead to the G20 meetings in New Delhi and onward to Hanoi.

American officials are quick to defend the decision, saying that U.S. policies towards Southeast Asia are constant and on an upward trajectory. This is true, to an extent. At a time of greater Sino-U.S. friction and the two powers’ corresponding bids to woo and influence Southeast Asian countries, however, Biden brushing off Indonesia, the host of the ASEAN-related Summits, speaks volumes.

Granted, one can see the logic behind the decision. In American eyes, India — and its participation in the four-member Quadrilateral Security Dialogue — is key to managing the challenges posed by China. This is so much so that India’s perceived transgressions — not condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reselling Russian gas, and aligning with China and Russia in the BRICS — have been overlooked.

Like India, Vietnam also stands on the frontlines in the U.S.-led bid to counter China along its periphery. And compared to other Southeast Asian countries that are inclined towards the U.S., such as Singapore and the Philippines, there is more upside in the U.S.-Vietnam relationship. Biden will be rewarded with an upgrade of Washington’s relationship with Vietnam to a strategic partnership in Hanoi.

The case for Biden skipping ASEAN-related summits in Jakarta falls apart if one examines the optics and underlying concerns in Southeast Asia about U.S. engagement in the region.

Giving Indonesia a miss is a bad idea. This year, Indonesia is the ASEAN Chair and incidentally the grouping’s country coordinator of ASEAN-U.S. relations. Indonesia had adjusted ASEAN’s calendar to take advantage of Biden’s travel to India in order to secure his attendance at the East Asia Summit.

Skipping out on a trip to Jakarta is a signal to outgoing President Jokowi that Indonesia is simply not on the Administration’s radar. But it should be. When forced to choose, more Indonesians deem that ASEAN should choose China rather than the United States. In the State of Southeast Asia Survey 2023, the percentage of Indonesians choosing the U.S. has fallen from 64.3 per cent in 2021 to 46.3 per cent in 2023. In the same period, the corresponding figure for those choosing China has risen from 35.7 per cent to 53.7 per cent.

“Biden’s attendance at ASEAN summits is not everything, but it is important,” said a senior Indonesia academic at a Jakarta conference recently. This is where Biden’s predecessor, Obama, excelled at pressing the flesh and kissing babies — for strategic reasons. When he visited Jakarta in 2010, university students lined the streets to greet him. To this day, the Indonesian capital has a “nasi goreng gila Obama” (Obama crazy fried rice) eatery opposite the elementary school that the president attended as a child.

Obama had shown seriousness towards ASEAN by signing on to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in 2009. He ended his term hosting the special U.S.-ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in Sunnylands in 2016 — a high point in U.S.-ASEAN relations. He met all 10 ASEAN leaders in his first year and a total of six timesacross his two terms, and travelled to the region seven times separately (more than twice that of any sitting U.S. president). He only missed the East Asia Summit once in 2013 during a government shutdown. This was truly demonstrative of Washington’s “tilt” to Asia and the Pacific, more than any strategy or document can put into words.






Biden’s achievements on this score are fewer. He hosted the second special US-ASEAN Summit last year in Washington DC where he met nine of the ASEAN leaders and then went on to elevate relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership at the end of last year. He attended the East Asia Summit in 2021 (virtually) and 2022, but has scarcely visited the region.

There are also deeper issues. Privately, American diplomats grumble that ASEAN countries are too amicable towards China and that the grouping’s processes are tardy and chock-full of ASEAN-esque gobbledygook. Cynics also note that external powers such as the U.S. (and China, France and the United Kingdom) mouth the shibboleths of ASEAN centrality to get a “free pass” into the club, after which they bob and weave and do their own thing. The U.S.’ much-touted mini-laterals — the Quad, the AUKUS, and more recently, the Japan-Korea-U.S. trilateral — are notable examples.

Given China’s deep economic links with the region, the U.S. also has much catching up to do after its withdrawal from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2017. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is Washington’s next-best option for regional states, but it is still a work in progress. A recently released report by the U.S.-based Asia Society argued that Washington needs to up its economic game by considering a U.S.-ASEAN free trade agreement.

Granted, these are issues that a Biden visit to Jakarta will not resolve. Washington, however, should be mindful that the Sino-U.S. race to win friends and influence people in Southeast Asia is dynamic. Posture may not make policy but meeting in-person is nonetheless important and appreciated. Xi Jinping, for example, launched a charm offensive towards the region earlier this year, which was received largely positively.

In the end, perceptions and optics matter. It is said that relationships need constant gardening. In this case, Biden’s decision to brush off Jakarta is tantamount to Washington taking gardening leave on the U.S.-ASEAN relationship.

I am pretty sure Biden skip Indonesia to deal with Hurricane Idilia landing in FL just this morning.
 
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