UAE has no oil it has gas and none petro economy
UAE has proven reserves of 97 billion bbl. They produce 3 million bbl/day, and import 62% of it. Their own consumption is around 800k bbl/day.
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/170.htm
How will exporting
crude and refining it in pakistan be profitable to uae n saudia than exporting refined high end products? I think all these refinery projects are only limited to mou n making each other happy.
@niaz can expain it better.
Or may be saufia n uae want pakistan dependent on them.
UAE already has a functional model in terms of PARCO Mid Country Refinery. This, PARCO Coastal Refinery, will likely be modeled on the same - in terms of investments, profit sharing and crude oil (Murban and Das) supply chain.
we import half of refined oil. We need atlesst 2 immediately ..Pakistan doesnt even have A SINGLE MODERN refineries ..all are scrapped second gand junk.which produxes old grade fuel..a tax was placed to build a new refinery for 10 years but PMLN ate the money for budget support
Smaller older design refineries with limited cracking ability should not be given license unless they can handle there own products sale
Thanks for the reply, appreciate it. It makes sense not to give out licenses but they are. These ~20kbpd refineries do have plans to expand to ~40 and ~60kbpd eventually. Byco when established, had humble beginnings (~15-18 kbpd), today it has the largest capacity in Pakistan.
Our consumption, as of Dec 31, 2017 was ~600k bpd, this should have incorporated our efficiency and yield challenges.
We have ~400 kbpd refining capacity which results in an imbalance of ~200 kbpd equivalent imports. Now, KPK is planning to increase its capacity by ~200 kbpd [divided among its 3 new refineries, Falcon ~100 kbpd, Khyber ~20 kbpd (eventually planned to be increased to ~40k), Karak (KPOGDCL refinery) ~20 kbpd (eventually to be increased to 60k)]. With KSA & UAE, GOP is planning a combined increase of ~950k bpd, and a total of ~1.350 mmbpd refining capacity, say in next 10 years. Regardless of whether we can achieve it or not, we have an intent, this intent should have some basis. This particular refinery (Coastal) when was planned in 2007, was intended to cater our needs 5-10 years down the line, that is today and would have catered to our refining woes and that ~200k bpd equivalents effectively.
Our, oil demand should be going down, we are actively converting our power generation to gas fired plants, this is one of the largest areas for our consumption. So, where are we expecting increase in our demand over next 10 years, and that too from ~600k to 1.35 mmbpd, and how are we planning to support it? Our oil production is at around ~84k bpd and is expected to decline.
So, we will be relying on foreign crude imports of about ~1.25 mmbpd or 456.25 mmbbl/year. Having current prices of $76.47 for Arab Light locked, we are looking at a price tag of ~$34.8 Billion/year. This doesn't look like a very well thought out plan, or we are missing a very important variable in the equation. Maybe we are not the only intended target for the products, and the GOP has envisaged another player to pick some of that ~34.8B cheque. They did offer an ROI of 16% to KSA, that is atleast 6% more of the going rate, some may even say twice - our economy alone will not be able to support this. That's why I said IK needs to convince China in investing on rail and pipeline links between Gwader and Kashgar in his upcoming visit, and focus on China's energy security paradigm with Pakistan being in central and pivotal role.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1436385
"Sources
told Dawn Riyadh was expected to be allocated a large piece of land at Gwadar for setting up a 500,000 barrels per day (BPD) refinery worth over $9 billion besides an oil storage facility for 2-3 million tonnes as part of its plan to secure its export supplies.
They said Pakistan promised 16 per cent return on investment in the oil refinery."
unless it will be either the Saudis or UAE?
