World Bank ICP 2011: Pakistan's GDP $788 Billion, Per Capita $4,450

[Hyde]

Last month or prior to the release of IMF april 2014 outlook

Pakistan projected GDP for 2020 in IMF was 280Billion dollars but with only a slight improvement in our Economy.The increase it by more than 60Billion dollars.

The rest i will explain later

It indeed is true that is why I in my personal capacity believe our GDP should be close to 350 billion dollars by 2019... and may be close to half trillion dollars by 2023. But no where close to 1000 billion dollars as you suggested earlier

 

[dawn_news]

It indeed is true that is why I in my personal capacity believe our GDP should be close to 350 billion dollars by 2019... and may be close to half trillion dollars by 2023. But no where close to 1000 billion dollars as you suggested earlier

You realize Pakistan GDP has increase $40-50 billion in last year? I can bet next year Pakistan GDP will be over $350 billion.

 

[Hyde]

You realize Pakistan GDP has increase $40-50 billion in last year? I can bet next year Pakistan GDP will be over $350 billion.

You mean 30%-40% growth in one year? That isn't going to happen.

I do realise that the GDP as per IMF statistics increased by up to 36 billion dollars in 2011, 12 billion dollars in 2012, 13 billion dollars in 2013 and 3 billion dollars in 2014 (with only 3 billion dollars increase seems unrealistic).

The reason why it increased by up to 36 billon dollars in my opinion is because we were trapped in floods in 2010 and lots of data was probably pending which was later calculated in 2011. Otherwise if you notice the economy in 2008 (171 billion dollars), 2009 (169 billion dollars), 2010 (177 billion dollars).. We don't see significant increase in terms of dollars.

In simple mathematics and not counting other factors such as the inflation... If you have 200 rupees.. You have a growth rate of 4% - You are likely to have 208 rupees by the end of year. That's how it goes.

If the economy currently stands around 240 billion dollars and you have 5% growth rate each year, you are likely to have 308 billion dollars after 5 years, now count all the other factors in and the figure will shoot up somewhere close to 350 billion dollars as rightly predicted by IMF.

 

[Baby Leone]

You mean 30%-40% growth in one year? That isn't going to happen.

I do realise that the GDP as per IMF statistics increased by up to 36 billion dollars in 2011, 12 billion dollars in 2012, 13 billion dollars in 2013 and 3 billion dollars in 2014 (with only 3 billion dollars increase seems unrealistic).

The reason why it increased by up to 36 billon dollars in my opinion is because we were trapped in floods in 2010 and lots of data was probably pending which was later calculated in 2011. Otherwise if you notice the economy in 2008 (171 billion dollars), 2009 (169 billion dollars), 2010 (177 billion dollars).. We don't see significant increase in terms of dollars.

In simple mathematics and not counting other factors such as the inflation... If you have 200 rupees.. You have a growth rate of 4% - You are likely to have 208 rupees by the end of year. That's how it goes.

If the economy currently stands around 240 billion dollars and you have 5% growth rate each year, you are likely to have 308 billion dollars after 5 years, now count all the other factors in and the figure will shoot up somewhere close to 350 billion dollars as rightly predicted by IMF.

in calculating GDP u can't ignore other factors

BTW i saw a thread by a Banladeshi member abt Bangladeshi economy taking over Pakistani economy (Indians were the happiest creatures on tht thread)where i said tht the gap between 2 economies is increasing day by day (in Pak favor) even when we are at war.....just see according to WB in 2012 GDPs of 2 countries are as follow
Pakistan: $ 794.8 Billions
Bangladesh: $ 372 Billions

 

[dawn_news]

You mean 30%-40% growth in one year? That isn't going to happen.

I do realise that the GDP as per IMF statistics increased by up to 36 billion dollars in 2011, 12 billion dollars in 2012, 13 billion dollars in 2013 and 3 billion dollars in 2014 (with only 3 billion dollars increase seems unrealistic).

The reason why it increased by up to 36 billon dollars in my opinion is because we were trapped in floods in 2010 and lots of data was probably pending which was later calculated in 2011. Otherwise if you notice the economy in 2008 (171 billion dollars), 2009 (169 billion dollars), 2010 (177 billion dollars).. We don't see significant increase in terms of dollars.

In simple mathematics and not counting other factors such as the inflation... If you have 200 rupees.. You have a growth rate of 4% - You are likely to have 208 rupees by the end of year. That's how it goes.

If the economy currently stands around 240 billion dollars and you have 5% growth rate each year, you are likely to have 308 billion dollars after 5 years, now count all the other factors in and the figure will shoot up somewhere close to 350 billion dollars as rightly predicted by IMF.

Hmm i have explained this to others before.. anyway lets get in to facts. Pakistan GDP for last fiscal year was over Rs 26 trillion, this is official figure. GDP fiscal year ending next month is over 29 trillion, but we will get exact figures next month.

So how its increased to 29 trillion from 26? 4-5% GDP growth plus 8-9% inflation rate. Overall increase 13%, one then convert 29 trillion in to $ and get nominal GDP at current prices.

So unless Pakistani rupee crash, GDP will be around $300 billion when next month official figures are released.

 

[Hyde]

in calculating GDP u can't ignore other factors

BTW i saw a thread by a Banladeshi member abt Bangladeshi economy taking over Pakistani economy (Indians were the happiest creatures on tht thread)where i said tht the gap between 2 economies is increasing day by day (in Pak favor) even when we are at war.....just see according to WB in 2012 GDPs of 2 countries are as follow
Pakistan: $ 794.8 Billions
Bangladesh: $ 372 Billions

Actually IMF or another bank claimed that Bangladesh will surpass Pakistan's economy in the next 3-4 years. But you are right that there is a huge gap to fill, even though they are progressing better than us due to not having been infected by WoT.. But still the gap is so huge that it will take years n years and a bad performance for us for Bangladesh to surpass.

The good thing about Bangladesh is they have made sure their exports and imports are very balanced unlike Pakistan where we have huge deficits resulting in low foreign reserves all the time. Their foreign reserves are stable around 20 billion dollars

 

[ziaulislam]

It indeed is true that is why I in my personal capacity believe our GDP should be close to 350 billion dollars by 2019... and may be close to half trillion dollars by 2023. But no where close to 1000 billion dollars as you suggested earlier

well there is lot going in gdp talks, first the statebank values GDP in rupees, so exchange rate will determine alot.
at moment it has only 2012-13 values at 22900 bllion rupees i.e 236billion dollars at exchange rate of 97.lets wait for 2013-14 values(may be close 275 in end of 2014?)
State Bank of Pakistan

second GDP growth in nominal takes in the inflation too. so if you r inflation is 9% and your real growth 6% than it becomes 15%.
now if you grow by 15% it means your GDP should double after every 4.5 years(70/15=no. of years for doubling)
so yes if the values remain approx 15%, our GDP should grow near to 1 trillion by 2025(in 10-12 years, as it will double twice) but keeping inflation at ideal 7% and growth of an ideal 6-8% will be required, as too much inflation will hit you bad.

one example is IRAN its GDP was 380 billion dollars but has dropped less than pakistan due to its currency devaluattion. but this is nominal only drop.
its PP will remain the same more or less
in short nominal= exchange rupees in dollars
PP(purchasing power)= a complex calcualtion and estimates that change the value of things according to international prices e.g a chicken in pakistan will cost 100 rs but international may be 300rs

in past 10 yeasr our PP has just doubled but noinal showed 2 times growth.
we should worry more about PP growth(=real gdp growth) rather nominal

Actually IMF or another bank claimed that Bangladesh will surpass Pakistan's economy in the next 3-4 years. But you are right that there is a huge gap to fill, even though they are progressing better than us due to not having been infected by WoT.. But still the gap is so huge that it will take years n years and a bad performance for us for Bangladesh to surpass.

The good thing about Bangladesh is they have made sure their exports and imports are very balanced unlike Pakistan where we have huge deficits resulting in low foreign reserves all the time. Their foreign reserves are stable around 20 billion dollars

IMF didnt claimed that , Bangladesh will require alot of fiscal and economical correction to get pass Pakistan, as its econmy is differently structured as its evident by PP values
surprisingly they were much better in 1971 , they lost coz of mujeeb ur rehman nationalization(and did we)

 

[farhan_9909]

You mean 30%-40% growth in one year? That isn't going to happen.

I do realise that the GDP as per IMF statistics increased by up to 36 billion dollars in 2011, 12 billion dollars in 2012, 13 billion dollars in 2013 and 3 billion dollars in 2014 (with only 3 billion dollars increase seems unrealistic).

The reason why it increased by up to 36 billon dollars in my opinion is because we were trapped in floods in 2010 and lots of data was probably pending which was later calculated in 2011. Otherwise if you notice the economy in 2008 (171 billion dollars), 2009 (169 billion dollars), 2010 (177 billion dollars).. We don't see significant increase in terms of dollars.

In simple mathematics and not counting other factors such as the inflation... If you have 200 rupees.. You have a growth rate of 4% - You are likely to have 208 rupees by the end of year. That's how it goes.

If the economy currently stands around 240 billion dollars and you have 5% growth rate each year, you are likely to have 308 billion dollars after 5 years, now count all the other factors in and the figure will shoot up somewhere close to 350 billion dollars as rightly predicted by IMF.

No but in 2010 Pakistan changed the base year.Pakistan again will change the base year in 2016

anyway instead of more discussion,we should rather wait a month more or let say till mid of june when the official Figure of GDP in PKR will be revealed.Since we are discussing nominal GDP,which only mean the rupee in exchange rate of dollars.

 

[ajpirzada]

why are we discussing nominal GDP? does it really matter from the point of view of average person on the street? we should atleast look at the growth in per capital GDP (PPP terms) and compare it with other countries. Here we go:

GDP per capita (PPP - World Bank)

Bangladesh is no where near Pakistan and the trend does not show any sign of it catching up any time soon. Look at China and Sri Lanka. They have outsmarted everyone. India has crossed us and seems to be growing at a faster rate than both Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Growth rate of GDP per capita (PPP - World Bank)

This is more interesting. The growth rate of the per capital GDP (PPP) is the lowest in Pakistan since 2005-06 - although showing signs of recovery since 2010. India has taken a huge dive while Bangladesh has slowed down as well. Sri Lanka has suddenly turned the tide and outpaced everyone.

anyways this does not include 2013 or 2014. but the conversion is based on the current international $. Use the second diagram to get the most recent growth rate for respective countries and extrapolate the data in the first figure. Doing so gives me the following figures for the GDP per capita, PPP (2013 extrapolated):
Bangladesh=2568$
China=11962$
India=5407$
Sri Lanka=10022$
Pakistan=4616$​