Vietnam politics

[Lux de Veritas]

I am not an expert in this area but I hope Vietnamese friends here can contribute. Nevertheless I am able to give some perspective base on Chinese media.

This YZZK has an interesting article about pro China and pro USA faction in Vietnam. I will translate it.

亞洲週刊-越特使黎鴻英訪華背後玄機

熟悉越南高層的人士向亞洲週刊透露，越南高層出現分歧，部分勢力贊同向華盛頓戰略傾斜，另一方則贊同與同為共產黨執政的中國調適關係。

六月十八日，中國國務委員楊潔篪曾前往越南，與越南總理阮晉勇會晤，但據了解內情的消息人士告訴亞洲週刊，當時「談得很不好」。在五月份的第二十四屆東盟峰會全體會議上，也正是越南總理阮晉勇發表了呼籲世界譴責中國的講話，並聲稱要將中國告上國際法庭。

一位在越南生活近六十年的資深中國外交官告訴亞洲週刊，「在江澤民時代，中越就有一個口頭的約定，希望有問題的時候，雙方內部能夠以談判解決，不要把它公諸於世，因為畢竟是近鄰，而且都是共產黨執政的國家。但是阮晉勇卻拿到國際會議上，單方面衝破了這個局面」。在他看來，阮晉勇把這件事情鬧大，屬於「另有目的」。

越南總理阮晉勇的反華舉措，被認為是在國內政治鬥爭中「為自己加分」，以擺脫深陷腐敗指控的困局。外交從來是內政的延伸，圍繞在反華與訪華的背後，是越南難以改變的腐敗現狀，也是越共高層撲朔迷離的博弈局勢。

越南腐敗問題比中國嚴重

根據「透明國際」設定的零到一百分標準（零分代表嚴重腐敗，一百分代表非常清廉），越南僅得三十一分（中國四十分），屬於腐敗非常嚴重的國家。而早在十餘年前，越南就已上榜，被「透明國際」列為「貪污腐敗嚴重的國家」，腐敗問題更被越南民衆視為「國難」。為了解決積重難返的腐敗問題，數十年來，作為執政黨的越共出台了多項政策和立法，試圖改變腐敗現狀。

最大「老虎」是阮晉勇？

發生在越南的種種立法反腐嘗試，往往陷入「立法者帶頭破壞法律」的怪圈，而遭遇腐敗傳聞指控的最大「老虎」，就是現任國家總理阮晉勇。

而導致廣泛腐敗的越南國企，其主導用人和改革者就是現任越南總理阮晉勇。作為經濟事務的最高決策者，阮晉勇對越南國企的一系列貪腐有不可推卸的責任，為此，他曾在二零一二年國會質詢中公開道歉，承認自己「對越南船舶工業總公司（Vinashin）、越南國家航運公司（Vinalines）等一些大型國企的經濟監管監察工作存在失察行為」。

二零一三年十二月十六日，原越南航海總公司董事長、原交通運輸部航海局局長楊志勇被判死刑，這被認為是阮晉勇與「老朋友」的切割和自保行為。阮晉勇在一九九五年調入中央工作後最初職務是內務部副部長和中央監察委員會委員，而楊志勇則是政法系統高官之子，兩人關係匪淺。

除了與國企貪腐高官剪不斷的關係以外， 家人是阮晉勇的又一軟肋。阮晉勇大兒子是建築專家，擔任建設部副部長，小兒子在軍隊工作。女兒阮芳清和女婿亨利．阮從商，但在二零一二年六月，由於阮晉勇被過多醜聞困擾，阮芳清在出任越南資本銀行董事長半年之後，即被迫放棄職位。

然而，用人失察、放縱而導致大型國企連連發生腐敗弊案的阮晉勇，卻早從二零零六年開始，就一直領導著越南的最高反腐權力機構——中央防止腐敗指導委員會，成為「腐敗者領導反腐」的典例。直到越共中央十一屆五中全會上，越共總書記阮富仲才將這項權力收回。

深陷貪腐風暴的阮晉勇，在黨政軍、中央地方均有歷練，是一位「強勢總理」，因此儘管近年來黨內、國會內部有就貪腐現象、用人失誤向阮晉勇問責的聲音，但阮晉勇一直穩坐總理職位。而越共總書記阮富仲，是多位分析人士眼中的「理論家」、「僅僅是知識分子」，他被認為是過渡性人物，所領導的「中央防止腐敗指導委員會」雖然對阮晉勇形成制衡，但並不能對總理的腐敗行為進一步深究。

暨南大學的莊禮偉教授說﹕「阮富仲主導中央防治腐敗指導委員會之後，使黨內監督有了新的機制，有可能對黨政腐敗現象有一些緩解作用，但由於越共和越南政府掌握廣泛的權力，並致力於內部的一團和氣、利益均霑，腐敗仍將是這種體制的一個廣泛的伴生現象。」

熟悉越南政治的人士認為，阮晉勇在五月份的激烈的反華表現，有轉嫁國內矛盾、擺脫信任危機、為自己的政治生涯加分的目的。一位外交官向亞洲週刊抱怨﹕「即便中國沒有九八一鑽井平台，也會有其他的事件，這是他轉移矛盾的藉口。」

越南官民蜜月期終結

作為總理，阮晉勇對越南嚴峻的經濟形勢和尖銳的社會矛盾的局面責無旁貸。一位外交官告訴亞洲週刊﹕「阮晉勇煽動排華一方面是為了自己的前途，另一方面也是身不由己。」

同時，由於總理的腐敗傳聞，近年來越共對擁有強大政治號召力的阮晉勇有所警惕，並施加各種手段加以制衡。雖然阮晉勇出身軍隊和公安系統，勢力雄厚，但畢竟不是越共頭號人物，在黨內高層排序中，他排在越共總書記阮富仲、國家主席張晉創之後，並且在黨內也受到北方背景幹部的制衡。

在阮晉勇遭遇用人失察等一系列指控後，原本相對弱勢的總書記阮富仲加強手中權力，於二零一三年初成立直屬越共中央政治局的中央防治腐敗指導委員會，親自出任該機構負責人，這對深陷腐敗指控的阮晉勇構成了威脅。另外由越南中部背景的阮生雄掌舵的國會有權向國家主席、政府總理問責和質詢，這也是越南高層彼此制衡博弈的表現。

在越南黨政軍格局中，親美、中立和親華勢力一直在鬥爭中保持微妙的平衡。總理阮晉勇是「南方派」（親美派）代表，而越共總書記阮富仲是對華友好的「北方派」（親中派）的代表。

越共最高領導層因為採取多頭政治、水平分權，導致總書記阮富仲、國家主席張晉創、總理阮晉勇、國會主席阮生雄這「四駕馬車」之間，形成權力分配上的「默契」。然而，中越衝突在一定程度上衝擊了這種固有平衡。有分析人士指出，阮晉勇想利用中越衝突的大好時機，服務於政治鬥爭，以佔領國內政治鬥爭的制高點。

Some elites of Vietnam want to follow the USA while others want to follow China. Last June China FM Yang Jiechi met PM Nguyen Tan Dung and both are not cordial with each other.

Vietnam has an agreement with China to keep all their divergence within their elites but PM Nguyen Tan Dung keep shouting on the roof top playing fire. The reason being, Nguyen Tan Dung is corrupt is now on anti China ticket to bail out himself.

Vietnam corruption is worse than China and the one most responsible now is Nguyen Tan Dung. Nguyen Tan Dung is in charge of economy and -- anti corruption, and that give him massive power to corrupt. He got involved in Vinashin and Vinaines scandals. Many of his relative are having high profile portfolio in the economy.

Given all his scandals, he will keep poking China to divert attention from his shit. China understand PM Nguyen's difficulties.

Party secretary Nguyen Phu Trọng is from North and pro China while PM Nguyen Tan Dung is from South and pro USA. Using the opportunity of PM Nguyen Tan Dung scandal, the relative weak Nguyen Phu Trong manage to take back PM Nguyen Tan Dung's power as anti corruption boss.

Pro China Party secretary Nguyen Phu Trọng

Pro USA PM Nguyen Tan Dung

 

[AndrewJin]

都是大老虎。亲爱的露克斯 德 瓦里塔斯同学，您认为老虎会自杀吗？

 

[Lux de Veritas]

都是大老虎。亲爱的露克斯 德 瓦里塔斯同学，您认为老虎会自杀吗？

The corrupt tiger PM Nguyen Tan Dung is now spearheading the drive the privatize national asset including the prized VNPT mobile. He is following the Milton Friedman/US neo liberal/USSR Oligarch style in transferring state asset to party elites. Almost every Vietnamese PDF are so stupid to support this corrupt man initiative.

PDF PRC are far more clever that they are against Oligarch.

Be sure PM Nguyen Tan Dung will bash China as a cover for his corruption.

This PM Nguyen is going to create a dynasty and hijack Vietnam people like Russian Oligarch if he has his ways.

 

[AndrewJin]

The corrupt tiger PM Nguyen Tan Dung is now spearheading the drive the privatize national asset including the prized VNPT mobile. He is following the Milton Friedman/US neo liberal/USSR Oligarch style in transferring state asset to party elites. Almost every Vietnamese PDF are so stupid to support this corrupt man initiative.

PDF PRC are far more clever that they are against Oligarch.

Be sure PM Nguyen Tan Dung will bash China as a cover for his corruption.

This PM Nguyen is going to create a dynasty and hijack Vietnam people like Russian Oligarch if he has his ways.

Dear 露克斯 德 瓦里塔斯同学, most Viets here are overseas Viets, they don't care. It's the local Viets who suffer.

 

[Viet]

The corrupt tiger PM Nguyen Tan Dung is now spearheading the drive the privatize national asset including the prized VNPT mobile. He is following the Milton Friedman/US neo liberal/USSR Oligarch style in transferring state asset to party elites. Almost every Vietnamese PDF are so stupid to support this corrupt man initiative.

PDF PRC are far more clever that they are against Oligarch.

Be sure PM Nguyen Tan Dung will bash China as a cover for his corruption.

This PM Nguyen is going to create a dynasty and hijack Vietnam people like Russian Oligarch if he has his ways.

there is no evidence for your accusation. the current PM badly managed the economy in the past, but he is not corrupt. besides, thank to many of his comrades in the politburo, he avoids to receive a warning. no, he was very cooperative toward china. but since the oil rig crisis, he hates ccp and chinese. by the way, he is not the one, who hates ccp and chinese clowns since then.

 

[AndrewJin]

there is no evidence for your accusation. the current PM badly managed the economy in the past, but he is not corrupt. besides, thank to many of his comrades in the politburo, he avoids to receive a warning. no, he was very cooperative toward china. but since the oil rig crisis, he hates ccp and chinese. by the way, he is not the one, who hates ccp and chinese clowns since then.

Not corrupt...

 

[Viet]

Dear 露克斯 德 瓦里塔斯同学, most Viets here are overseas Viets, they don't care. It's the local Viets who suffer.

I give you a tip: if you begin to believe to your own propaganda, it is time to visit a doc.

 

[AndrewJin]

I give you a tip: if you begin to believe to your own propaganda, it is time to visit a doc.

In our propaganda, Viet politicians are clean. An oversee Viet believe Viet politicians are clean, BRAVO.

 

[cnleio]

Their currency devaluation is fast, every Vietnamese become the mallionaire ... the big problemn is Vietnam senior officiers not good at economy.

500,000 VND == 150 RMB

 

[mike2000 is back]

The corrupt tiger PM Nguyen Tan Dung is now spearheading the drive the privatize national asset including the prized VNPT mobile. He is following the Milton Friedman/US neo liberal/USSR Oligarch style in transferring state asset to party elites. Almost every Vietnamese PDF are so stupid to support this corrupt man initiative.

PDF PRC are far more clever that they are against Oligarch.

Be sure PM Nguyen Tan Dung will bash China as a cover for his corruption.

This PM Nguyen is going to create a dynasty and hijack Vietnam people like Russian Oligarch if he has his ways.

Interesting Lux. Keep up with your work and posts. Though some people here might be uncomfortable with your posts(i might not agree with you on a few of them) but i must confess your posts/comments are indeed factual/non biased for the most part, and believe me its not easy to see members like you on here. Your posts are very informative, and i have indeed learned quite a few things i didnt know before from you(which doesnt always happens that often on here.lol)

Anyway Its indeed good for us outsiders to get an idea of how power play works in the one party communist system in China and Vietnam. Keep up the good work bro.

 

[Edison Chen]

都是大老虎。亲爱的露克斯 德 瓦里塔斯同学，您认为老虎会自杀吗？

Good translation....

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

Their currency devaluation is fast, every Vietnamese become the mallionaire ... the big problemn is Vietnam senior officiers not good at economy.


View attachment 224688
View attachment 224689

Yea they even have coins of 5000 don I agree that the recent devaluation of VND is especially alarming，showing the economy is getting more fragile. VCP did not learn from China to suppress the wage growth so it's rising too fast，also a problem.

Chance is，their economy is going to face challenges before their political system does. Too bad some hothead viet members here knows little about economy and only care about islands，by some I mean you @LacViet

 

[mike2000 is back]

there is no evidence for your accusation. the current PM badly managed the economy in the past, but he is not corrupt. besides, thank to many of his comrades in the politburo, he avoids to receive a warning. no, he was very cooperative toward china. but since the oil rig crisis, he hates ccp and chinese. by the way, he is not the one, who hates ccp and chinese clowns since then.

To be honest, we cant really say for sure if hes corrupt or not. Politicians are very cunny people(reason i NEVER believe a politician EVER). However, you shouldnt feel that bad, since as much as Chinese members here bash Vietnam and VCP their own CCP isnt any different to be honest, they are aso corrupt to the core.lol The only difference might be that Vietnamese corrupt officials might be dealing in the millions(due to their smaller economy) while Chinese CCP officials deal in the billions.lol Remember Vietnam is a mini/little China.

 

[AndrewJin]

Good translation....

露克丝 德 娃丽塔丝

 

[Edison Chen]

露克丝 德 娃丽塔丝

I love it.