Trump finds a new strongman friend in Libya

[Kamil_baku]

Trump finds a new strongman friend in Libya As the latest theatre for regional score-settling, the battered country is braced for more bloodshed ROULA KHALAF Add to myFT The US president all but endorsed the offensive launched by Gen Haftar on Tripoli © Reuters Share on Twitter (opens new window) Share on Facebook (opens new window) Share on LinkedIn (opens new window) Share Save Save to myFT Roula Khalaf 12 MINUTES AGO Print this page0 Imagine we were living in a different era. A Middle Eastern militia leader attacks the capital of an oil-rich state while the UN is negotiating peace. What does the US do? The state department issues one condemnation after another, the White House follows up with warnings, and American diplomats work behind the scenes to contain the violence. But this is 2019, Donald Trump is US president and foreign policy is made on a whim. In the Middle East, Mr Trump’s record shows he favours the kind of authoritarianism that he’s unable to exercise at home, even when it runs counter to the policy adopted by his own diplomats. And so, last week, Mr Trump contacted Khalifa Haftar, the strongman who controls eastern Libya and has launched an offensive on Tripoli to overthrow a UN-recognised government. The US president all but endorsed the Haftar assault. Never mind that the US has been in favour of a UN-mediated national conference to try to overcome the divisions that have plagued Libya since the 2011 overthrow of the dictator Muammer Gaddafi. Or that Mr Trump has now positioned the US on the side of Russia and joined it in blocking a British-backed UN resolution calling for a ceasefire. Or that the state department had earlier stuck to the US line and condemned the Haftar onslaught. In the Middle East, Mr Trump appears to be in the thrall of the two Arab powers that have been reshaping the region in their image since the 2011 uprisings toppled some of their autocratic friends. Their advice holds greater sway at the White House than that of the US foreign policy establishment. This new Middle Eastern order is led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (a smaller Gulf state that has been punching well above its weight). It is defined by hostility towards Iran, antagonism towards Qatar and the Islamists it sympathises with, and the restoration of autocracy — by force if necessary. And yet, the consequences of the belligerence of the two Gulf states have been disastrous. True, the Tripoli administration is sustained by militias and the prospects of success of the UN plan are slim. But there is no military solution either. The outcome of Gen Haftar’s offensive is likely to be calamitous. Consider the first Gulf intervention in Egypt, when the UAE took the lead in helping to topple a Muslim Brotherhood government and back the military’s return to power. It is fair to say that Egypt has never been as authoritarian as it is today. The second misguided adventure was in Yemen, where in 2015 Saudi Arabia led a military campaign against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The conflict has cost at least 10,000 lives, caused a humanitarian catastrophe and remains stuck in a stalemate. The backing for Gen Haftar in Libya is designed to reinstall an autocrat at the helm of an Arab state and undermine a UN process that is favoured by Qatar (and its ally Turkey) and seen by much of the world community as the best way forward. As the UN has warned, the assault on Tripoli will instead reignite full-blown civil war. Unlike impoverished Yemen, Libya holds the promise of prosperity as an oil-rich state with a small population of 6m people. But since the overthrow that killed Gaddafi, control has been split between an internationally recognised, if flawed, administration in Tripoli and rival authorities in the east. Gen Haftar’s appeal to his Arab allies — and to a leader like Mr Trump — is obvious. The ex-CIA asset, who runs a militia made up of some of Gaddafi’s fighters, claims he can unite Libya and poses as a secular opponent of Islamists, although Saudi-supported Islamists are among his allies. Both the UAE and Egypt have provided military backing for the general. The conversion of Mr Trump appears to have begun with a visit to Washington by Egypt’s president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, this month. Saudi Arabia’s King Salman also hosted Gen Haftar in Riyadh. According to the UN, all sides are now pouring in military assets. An inevitable escalation in fighting is looming. As the latest theatre for regional score-settling and great powers rivalry, a battered Libya is bracing itself for more bloodshed — and its people stand to lose the most.