‘The geopolitical landscape is undergoing profound change, Dhaka needs to craft proactive strategies’

Wergeland · May 23, 2022

As a developing country, economic development should be Bangladesh’s national priority. Therefore, it is imperative that Dhaka strikes a balance between the superpowers to keep its strategic autonomy, which yields avenues to engage with multiple actors. The Business Standard spoke to Anu Anwar, a fellow at Harvard University, to better understand how we can strategise to achieve this and keep strong ties with the United States.

The acceleration of US-China strategic competition will influence Bangladesh's options and trajectory. In South Asia, the contest between them increasingly manifests as a competition between China and India, with Bangladesh as the battleground. How would you evaluate the current state of affairs in Bangladesh? Is Dhaka taking the right steps in balancing the trilateral relationships?

Even today, many Americans, especially Kissinger's generation, live with 1970s memories and think of Bangladesh as a "basket case." As a poverty-stricken and natural disaster-prone country which produces only garments. They rarely can make sense of the unprecedented development undertaken in Bangladesh

Even the recent relatively growing attention Bangladesh is getting in Washington is primarily based on the assumption that Bangladesh is falling into China's orbit. In short: the US is exhibiting reactionary tactics rather than proactive strategies to win Bangladesh.

I offer five policy recommendations for the US to overcome previous shortfalls and strengthen ties with Bangladesh going forward:

US could start by providing a reasonable and proportionate space to bright Bangladeshi minds in the field of International Relations/South Asia. Cultivating future political scientists could play an instrumental role in shaping, theorising and indoctrinating the future US-Bangladesh relations going forward. This is not to limit the field; rather a wider engagement with Bangladeshis will multiply in various dimensions.

Second, showing proactive strategy underpinning genuine interest to engage with Bangladesh — not just deploying reactionary tactics to tackle the 'China challenge' in South Asia. Third, diversifying FDI to the sectors that are in vital interest for Bangladesh's long-term prospects. Fourth, displaying a tangible set of action plans for Bangladesh that is separate from India or any other country.

And lastly, providing Bangladesh with strategic military hardware that is key to achieving its "Forces Goal-2030."

What does Bangladesh need to do to ensure its continuous upward trajectory and protect its strategic autonomy amid increasing great power competition in Asia?

Bangladesh would need to ensure three things.

First is national unity on the question of national interest. Political parties and elites could fight over everything but there must be a consensus among them on the question of national interest and strategic priorities. No matter who comes to power they should develop a consensus that those national policies wouldn't change regardless of the parties in power.

In that regard, in the 50 years of Bangladesh's history, we have never seen any national security or foreign policy guidelines. What is overcited in Bangladesh — "Friendship to all, malice to none" is a dictum — not policy! A well-crafted policy entails a set of national core interests, priorities, and strategic planning.

In developed countries, the well-practised procedure for crafting national policies is one version of such a policy document made available to the ordinary public that aims at disseminating information, organising society and building public consensus. The confidential version lays out the modus operandi to achieve the goals that the state set to achieve within a certain period of time. This version should be available only for key policymakers.

Second, a realistic, measurable and tangible assessment of the outcome of bilateral relations with each country. What exactly Bangladesh is gaining from engaging with each country, including the US, China, and India? This question should be the dominant feature of discourse at all levels of society. The outcome of each of these bilateral relations should be the guiding principle of Bangladesh's foreign policy in an era of great power competition.

Third, reducing over-reliance on any single country rather than diversifying its engagement with a wide range of countries. This will help Dhaka to blunt the coercive measures of great powers, and ensure its economic progress. Bangladesh would need to explore new markets for RMG and military hardware.

Dhaka would also need to cultivate emerging powers, especially those with deep pockets who could offer diplomatic support and invest in strategic sectors that are key in nation-building processes such as heavy industry, infrastructure and IT — producing high tech — not just assembling and outsourcing jobs.

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