The Coming U.S.-India Train Wreck

[Developereo]

There's a 350million strong Indian middle class in the urban centres and tows.

350million! That's larger than entire United States population.

Let's come back to reality: http://www.dbresearch.de/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_DE-PROD/PROD0000000000253735.pdf

While there is no official definition of the middle class, estimates range from 30 million to approximately 300 million people.

There are all sorts of 'projections' but in any case, the discussion is not about economics. As I mentioned, American companies do business regardless of political ties.

The point of the original article, and the debate here, is about the political expectations that America has from this relationship. It doesn't matter how Indians try to spin it, the fact is that India has led America on by pretending it shares American concerns and goals about the latter's geopolitical agenda.

That's a free media. They are free to say whatever they want to. They're free to run paid news.

Sorry, when it comes to foreign policy, this song about 'free media' is strictly for the birds. The media and official policy just magically tend to be in perfect alignment most of the time. This is not just in India, but also in Western countries.

In democracies, the relationship between the government and media is complex. On the one hand, the media sets the agenda for foreign policy by controlling the public debate. On the other hand, the media is often used by the government to test out public reaction to proposed policies by 'leaking' trial balloons.

...and the China bashing is for internal consumption. Not for American consumption.

No. My point was that American support has emboldened the Indian media to come open with their China-bashing. This sends a message to the Americans that India is on the same page as them when it comes to China.

Have you ever seen Iran bashing in Indian media for American consumption? Hell NO!

Exactly. India does not share the American policy view on Iran. That is the whole point of this thread: how America will react to this policy difference.

---------- Post added at 05:11 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:10 PM ----------

Amusing you haven't considered the impact of Republicans coming to power on Pakistan, judging the current state of relations between US and Pakistan.

I guess Indo-phobic glee is more comforting than concerns about ones own misery.

Because that's not the subject of this thread. Actually, I think McCain would have been better for Pakistan (and America), but that's a different debate.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

...and the China bashing is for internal consumption.

Yep, India's favourite hobby is sure to bring peace and friendliness to Sino-Indian relations.

 

[AbhimanyuShrivastav]

It's worse than that.

India and Israel enjoy a match made in heaven when allying against Pakistan, but the Iran factor puts strains on the India-Israel relationship also. As for the India-US relationship, it has been in the honeymoon period so far. At some point -- especially if Republicans come in power -- the US will start demanding some real payback.

Buddy, India has been speaking in favor of Palestine in the UN for a very long time. That has a much larger point with Israel. Iran is mostly second rung issue as far as Indo Israel discussion goes

---------- Post added at 11:47 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:46 AM ----------

but superpowers generally don't enjoy being played for a fool.

Are you using the current situation of Pakistan as a case in point in this hypothesis?

 

[Developereo]

Buddy, India has been speaking in favor of Palestine in the UN for a very long time. That has a much larger point with Israel. Iran is mostly second rung issue as far as Indo Israel discussion goes

Yes. for the last 60+ years, we can see how shook up the Israelis are about the world 'speaking' in favor of Palestinians.

 

[dbc]

Developereo, I doubt the US administration is concerned about Indian purchase of Iranian crude. Iranian output will decline over time, in six months to a year there will be nothing for India to buy. Assuming of course that US/EU Iranian sanctions are enforced.

 

[Developereo]

Developereo, I doubt the US administration is concerned about Indian purchase of Iranian crude. Iranian output will decline over time, in six months to a year there will be nothing for India to buy. Assuming of course that US/EU Iranian sanctions are enforced.

The Americans will be very interested to know to what extent India works with America, as opposed to undermining its efforts. The Americans have made it extremely clear they want to isolate Iran economically, and they will pay attention to how other countries respond.

The US is forming a new world order in Asia to counter China. It has gone to great lengths to boost India's standing with Japan, Australia and others. Will India's response to the Iran sanctions be in the same league as Japan, South Korea, Australia and Europe?

Of course, given the West's apprehension of China's rise, the American courtship of India is likely to continue, but it will be tempered by some reality checks.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Oh you know how much we love the slanty-eyed-you-know-who.

Your post clarified it already.

 

[SpArK]

Your post clarified it already.

Even the Indian Government says it, but they can't stomach it themselves.

India should emulate Beijing: Chidambaram - Times Of India

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

In recent address by Obama , India was referred as anchor of stability in the region, in a way this reflects the traditional concern of Americans about India being a establishing factor in South Asia.

I doubt Iran is a major thaw, considering there are more pressing issues such as Afghanistan.

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

In recent address by Obama , India was referred as anchor of stability in the region, in a way this reflects the traditional concern of Americans about India being a establishing factor in South Asia.

I doubt Iran is a major thaw, considering there are more pressing issues such as Afghanistan.

The Americans badly need a decently friendly country in a region dominated by hostile countries from China to Iran.

...and what better candidate than the country where the US is most popular outside the US.

The Indian public loves the US and I doubt the US will fritter away the opportunity with such abject stupidity as the concern over India buying crude oil from Iran.

You don't kill the golden goose.

 

[dbc]

The Americans will be very interested to know to what extent India works with America, as opposed to undermining its efforts. The Americans have made it extremely clear they want to isolate Iran economically, and they will pay attention to how other countries respond.

The US is forming a new world order in Asia to counter China. It has gone to great lengths to boost India's standing with Japan, Australia and others. Will India's response to the Iran sanctions be in the same league as Japan, South Korea, Australia and Europe?

For now the US will feign hurt feelings over Indian efforts to secure Irainian crude. China isn't going anywhere; it will continue to loom over India in perpetuity. India will respond by making other concessions to both the US and Israel; this is how diplomacy works. I believe India is making a mistake, for her future energy security; she must engage the Arabs now before the Chinese and Japanese soak up Arabian excess capacity.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

For now the US will feign hurt feelings over Indian efforts to secure Irainian crude. China isn't going anywhere; it will continue to loom over India in perpetuity. India will respond by making other concessions to both the US and Israel; this is how diplomacy works. I believe India is making a mistake, for her future energy security; she must engage the Arabs now before the Chinese and Japanese soak up Arabian excess capacity.

India industrialized too late. Only recently have they realized that they need large-scale manufacturing in this very early stage of the development cycle. To provide huge numbers of low-income jobs as well as to encourage urbanization, a necessary part of development.

And with indutrialization comes absolutely massive resource requirements.

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

India industrialized too late. Only recently have they realized that they need large-scale manufacturing in this very early stage of the development cycle. To provide huge numbers of low-income jobs as well as to encourage urbanization, a necessary part of development.

And with indutrialization comes absolutely massive resource requirements.

India has enough Thorium reserves to meet its needs for the next 500 years, may be.

...and India is working very hard on Thorium technology.

India only needs short term energy security for say, the next 30 years or so.

 

[pmukherjee]

No there will be no train wreck.
Indo-US friendship is one based on necessity and sheer convenience. The US is aware that there are areas of divergence in strategic interests of the two countries but it is the convergence of interests which has brought the two closer. We are not counted among America's closest allies and we are absolutely OK with that and have no interest in upgrading the relationship to the status of say the UK, Australia or even Japan. The US knows that there are areas where it will face dissent and opposition from India but where China is concerned, the US has our support. Our positions on various issues are well known, there are no surprises for anyone. If the US and Israel have come closer to India in the recent decade(s), it is despite our position on these issues which may not coincide with their positions.

As long as the convergence of interests remain, the friendship will abide. And no, India is not milking the US or trying to fool it. Only a fool thinks that way. Foreign policies are not conducted that way. All relationships are symbiotic, two way. Every country looks to its national interest. There are no freebies in international relations.

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

The Indian govt. recent attempts to liberalise retail trade in India, thereby ceding to long-time American demands, show once again that India is ready cooperate with America where it can.