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New York: The US should discuss with India after its general elections the possibility of basing American military and intelligence operatives in the country to address threats posed by Pakistan-based terror groups in a post- Afghanistan context, a think-tank here has said.
A special report titled 'Reorienting US Pakistan Strategy: From Af-Pak to Asia' by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) also recommends that the US should launch a new diplomatic dialogue with China, India and Pakistan to reduce prospects for regional tension and violence.
"Starting with the national security adviser to the prime minister of India, senior US national security officials should begin to discuss options for significantly expanded counter-terror cooperation with their Indian counterparts, up to and including the possibility of basing US military and/or intelligence operatives in India to address Pakistan-based terrorist threats in a post-Afghanistan context," the report's author, Daniel Markey, who is CFR senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, said.
Markey acknowledged such conversations between Washington and New Delhi would be "politically sensitive" and so should begin only after the next Indian government is elected in the spring.
"If diplomatic discussions make progress, the Pentagon should work with members of the US intelligence community to develop specific implementation plans for on-the-ground operations in India," he said.
The basis for Markey's argument is that while Washington and Islamabad have found common cause in fighting against Pakistan's homegrown Taliban insurgents,?Pakistan has been unwilling to tackle threats posed by the Haqqani network or LeT forcing Washington to reconsider the wisdom of remaining heavily dependent on US personnel and facilities now based in Afghanistan.
"Over the long run (and perhaps much sooner if Washington is unable to negotiate a satisfactory bilateral security agreement with Kabul), maintaining a foothold in landlocked Afghanistan as a means to deal with Pakistan-based security threats is likely to be extraordinarily difficult and costly. In light of Pakistan's geographic location, India is the obvious US alternative to Afghanistan," he said.
In recent years, Washington and New Delhi have on their part taken steps to expand their counter-terror cooperation with the intention of building defences against future attacks like the Lashkar-e-Taiba strike on Mumbai in November 2008.
The report said that given persistent terrorist threats and Pakistan's "clear lack of capacity and, in some cases, will" to tackle them, Washington would need to ramp up its efforts in India considerably, including even to the point of establishing military and intelligence facilities on Indian soil.
"Yet any such plan would immediately run up against India's lingering ambivalence about tighter ties with the US. A declared US military/intelligence presence in India, even if directed against Pakistan-based security threats, is for now a political nonstarter in New Delhi, where Indian leaders jealously guard their freedom from binding alliances," the report cautioned.
It added that alternative US basing arrangements on the Arabian Peninsula would likely prove more diplomatically feasible in the short-to-medium term.
However, seeking closer cooperation with India on addressing Pakistan-based security threats would still be a high priority for Washington in the context of an Asia-centric Pakistan strategy.
"In addition to offering the best geographical vantage point for US military and intelligence operations against Pakistan-based security threats, it would build closer working relationships that serve the broader US goal of partnership with India.
"To be clear, an Asia-oriented strategy toward Pakistan would suffer if it is defined primarily by an overt US tilt toward India at Pakistan's expense," it said.
The report also recommends that US efforts to promote greater counter-terror cooperation with India would need to be complemented by diplomatic outreach to China.
"The main US goal would be to encourage Beijing to counsel restraint in Islamabad. Fortunately, China's growing interest in a secure western frontier, concerns about violent extremism, and desire to expand commercial activities in India and Central Asia lead Beijing to share with Washington at least a basic desire to see Pakistan rein in its terrorists and reduce tensions with India," it said.
On Pakistan as a threat to India's growth, the report said that the primary means by which a hostile Pakistan would undermine India is through terrorism.
Even a marginal decrease in India's growth rate will prolong its developmental path and diminish its capacity to play a greater role in the world in ways Washington hopes to see in the decades to come, including with respect to "balancing Chinese influence in Asia".
It added that India's long-term economic growth is already hampered by Pakistan?s obstruction of overland access to energy resources in Central Asia.
The persistence of political barriers to commerce with Pakistan, which would otherwise be as natural a trade and investment partner as Canada is to the United States, will retard India's growth.
"The backdrop of persistent territorial disputes and deep distrust makes new Indo-Pakistani conflicts stemming from cross-border violence, proxy conflicts in Afghanistan, or access to water (particularly freshwater from the annual Himalayan glacier melt) quite plausible.
"And unlike early Indo-Pakistani wars, any future conflict would have the potential to escalate past the nuclear threshold," the report added.
`Talk to India over basing US troops to tackle terror groups`
A special report titled 'Reorienting US Pakistan Strategy: From Af-Pak to Asia' by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) also recommends that the US should launch a new diplomatic dialogue with China, India and Pakistan to reduce prospects for regional tension and violence.
"Starting with the national security adviser to the prime minister of India, senior US national security officials should begin to discuss options for significantly expanded counter-terror cooperation with their Indian counterparts, up to and including the possibility of basing US military and/or intelligence operatives in India to address Pakistan-based terrorist threats in a post-Afghanistan context," the report's author, Daniel Markey, who is CFR senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, said.
Markey acknowledged such conversations between Washington and New Delhi would be "politically sensitive" and so should begin only after the next Indian government is elected in the spring.
"If diplomatic discussions make progress, the Pentagon should work with members of the US intelligence community to develop specific implementation plans for on-the-ground operations in India," he said.
The basis for Markey's argument is that while Washington and Islamabad have found common cause in fighting against Pakistan's homegrown Taliban insurgents,?Pakistan has been unwilling to tackle threats posed by the Haqqani network or LeT forcing Washington to reconsider the wisdom of remaining heavily dependent on US personnel and facilities now based in Afghanistan.
"Over the long run (and perhaps much sooner if Washington is unable to negotiate a satisfactory bilateral security agreement with Kabul), maintaining a foothold in landlocked Afghanistan as a means to deal with Pakistan-based security threats is likely to be extraordinarily difficult and costly. In light of Pakistan's geographic location, India is the obvious US alternative to Afghanistan," he said.
In recent years, Washington and New Delhi have on their part taken steps to expand their counter-terror cooperation with the intention of building defences against future attacks like the Lashkar-e-Taiba strike on Mumbai in November 2008.
The report said that given persistent terrorist threats and Pakistan's "clear lack of capacity and, in some cases, will" to tackle them, Washington would need to ramp up its efforts in India considerably, including even to the point of establishing military and intelligence facilities on Indian soil.
"Yet any such plan would immediately run up against India's lingering ambivalence about tighter ties with the US. A declared US military/intelligence presence in India, even if directed against Pakistan-based security threats, is for now a political nonstarter in New Delhi, where Indian leaders jealously guard their freedom from binding alliances," the report cautioned.
It added that alternative US basing arrangements on the Arabian Peninsula would likely prove more diplomatically feasible in the short-to-medium term.
However, seeking closer cooperation with India on addressing Pakistan-based security threats would still be a high priority for Washington in the context of an Asia-centric Pakistan strategy.
"In addition to offering the best geographical vantage point for US military and intelligence operations against Pakistan-based security threats, it would build closer working relationships that serve the broader US goal of partnership with India.
"To be clear, an Asia-oriented strategy toward Pakistan would suffer if it is defined primarily by an overt US tilt toward India at Pakistan's expense," it said.
The report also recommends that US efforts to promote greater counter-terror cooperation with India would need to be complemented by diplomatic outreach to China.
"The main US goal would be to encourage Beijing to counsel restraint in Islamabad. Fortunately, China's growing interest in a secure western frontier, concerns about violent extremism, and desire to expand commercial activities in India and Central Asia lead Beijing to share with Washington at least a basic desire to see Pakistan rein in its terrorists and reduce tensions with India," it said.
On Pakistan as a threat to India's growth, the report said that the primary means by which a hostile Pakistan would undermine India is through terrorism.
Even a marginal decrease in India's growth rate will prolong its developmental path and diminish its capacity to play a greater role in the world in ways Washington hopes to see in the decades to come, including with respect to "balancing Chinese influence in Asia".
It added that India's long-term economic growth is already hampered by Pakistan?s obstruction of overland access to energy resources in Central Asia.
The persistence of political barriers to commerce with Pakistan, which would otherwise be as natural a trade and investment partner as Canada is to the United States, will retard India's growth.
"The backdrop of persistent territorial disputes and deep distrust makes new Indo-Pakistani conflicts stemming from cross-border violence, proxy conflicts in Afghanistan, or access to water (particularly freshwater from the annual Himalayan glacier melt) quite plausible.
"And unlike early Indo-Pakistani wars, any future conflict would have the potential to escalate past the nuclear threshold," the report added.
`Talk to India over basing US troops to tackle terror groups`
