Martian2
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Dec 15, 2009
- Messages
- 5,809
- Reaction score
- -37
The United States is selling record amounts of oil (400,000 barrels per day) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to China.
Despite his rhetoric, President Trump does not appear interested in a South China Sea confrontation with China (see second citation below).
This means the US-China business relationship supersedes geopolitics. Business is a win-win scenario. Geopolitics is a zero-sum game.
When I look at the vastly growing business ties between the US and China, it leads to the conclusion that military confrontation in the South China Sea is extremely unlikely.
This means my prediction of China reclaiming Outer Mongolia to prepare for a long war with the United States is probably never going to happen.
I had also predicted China would use EMPs and MIRVed conventional warheads to disable US military bases in Asia. I further predicted China would attack the F-22's support facilities to neutralize the F-22. China would use MIRVed MRBMs to attack the oil depots for the F-22. The J-20 would attack the air-refueling tankers for the F-22 (due to the short F-22 combat radius).
A few years ago, the Obama Administration was really pushing the idea of the Air-Sea Battle. Back then, there was a reasonable possibility to see whether my predictions would come true.
Unfortunately, the Trump Administration looks like it is more interested in business than war. This means all of my predictions are useless, because they were all predicated on a South China Sea war.
Hmmm...what do I do now? It looks like my big predictions (such as China will win a South China Sea war due to the shortest logistics lines) have all been blown straight to hell. Without war, the geopolitical picture does not change and the status quo remains.
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US' largest natural gas exporter announces huge deal with China | Washington Examiner (February 9, 2018)
"The largest natural gas exporter in the U.S. announced two major deals with China on Friday to sell U.S. natural gas through the 2040s.
Cheniere Energy agreed to supply China's state-owned energy company with 1.2 million tons of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, per year. The long-term supply and purchase agreements were built on a Memorandum of Understanding the company signed with China's energy authority in November."
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As U.S. goes quiet on close naval patrols, China speaks out | Reuters (January 23, 2018)
"HONG KONG/BEIJING (Reuters) - While the Pentagon plays down patrols close to Chinese-controlled reefs and islands in the South China Sea, Beijing is sounding the alarm about them, seeking to justify what experts say will be an even greater presence in the disputed region."
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How soaring US oil exports to China are transforming the global oil game | CNBC (February 10, 2018)
"Data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows U.S. crude shipments to China went from nothing before 2016 to a record 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January, worth almost $1 billion. Additionally, half a million tonnes of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) worth almost $300 million, headed to China from the U.S. in January."
Despite his rhetoric, President Trump does not appear interested in a South China Sea confrontation with China (see second citation below).
This means the US-China business relationship supersedes geopolitics. Business is a win-win scenario. Geopolitics is a zero-sum game.
When I look at the vastly growing business ties between the US and China, it leads to the conclusion that military confrontation in the South China Sea is extremely unlikely.
This means my prediction of China reclaiming Outer Mongolia to prepare for a long war with the United States is probably never going to happen.
I had also predicted China would use EMPs and MIRVed conventional warheads to disable US military bases in Asia. I further predicted China would attack the F-22's support facilities to neutralize the F-22. China would use MIRVed MRBMs to attack the oil depots for the F-22. The J-20 would attack the air-refueling tankers for the F-22 (due to the short F-22 combat radius).
A few years ago, the Obama Administration was really pushing the idea of the Air-Sea Battle. Back then, there was a reasonable possibility to see whether my predictions would come true.
Unfortunately, the Trump Administration looks like it is more interested in business than war. This means all of my predictions are useless, because they were all predicated on a South China Sea war.
Hmmm...what do I do now? It looks like my big predictions (such as China will win a South China Sea war due to the shortest logistics lines) have all been blown straight to hell. Without war, the geopolitical picture does not change and the status quo remains.
----------
US' largest natural gas exporter announces huge deal with China | Washington Examiner (February 9, 2018)
"The largest natural gas exporter in the U.S. announced two major deals with China on Friday to sell U.S. natural gas through the 2040s.
Cheniere Energy agreed to supply China's state-owned energy company with 1.2 million tons of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, per year. The long-term supply and purchase agreements were built on a Memorandum of Understanding the company signed with China's energy authority in November."
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As U.S. goes quiet on close naval patrols, China speaks out | Reuters (January 23, 2018)
"HONG KONG/BEIJING (Reuters) - While the Pentagon plays down patrols close to Chinese-controlled reefs and islands in the South China Sea, Beijing is sounding the alarm about them, seeking to justify what experts say will be an even greater presence in the disputed region."
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How soaring US oil exports to China are transforming the global oil game | CNBC (February 10, 2018)
"Data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows U.S. crude shipments to China went from nothing before 2016 to a record 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January, worth almost $1 billion. Additionally, half a million tonnes of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) worth almost $300 million, headed to China from the U.S. in January."
