Should we opt for the ICBM?

[war&peace]

No, the MTCR starts at 300 km, that's the lowest limit for the MTCR to regulate:

Greatest restraint is applied to what are known as Category I items. These items include complete rocket systems (including ballistic missiles, space launch vehicles and sounding rockets) and unmanned air vehicle systems (including cruise missiles systems, target and reconnaissance drones) with capabilities exceeding a 300km/500kg range/payload threshold; production facilities for such systems; and major sub-systems including rocket stages, re-entry vehicles, rocket engines, guidance systems and warhead mechanisms.

The remainder of the annex is regarded as Category II, which includes complete rocket systems (including ballistic missiles systems, space launch vehicles and sounding rockets) and unmanned air vehicles (including cruise missile systems, target drones, and reconnaissance drones) not covered in item I, capable of a maximum range equal to or greater than, 300km. Also included are a wide range of equipment, material, and technologies, most of which have uses other than for missiles capable of delivering WMD. While still agreeing to exercise restraint, partners have greater flexibility in the treatment of Category II transfer applications.

The Missile Technology Control Regime

It's for export only, unless you're the US or Russia, in which case the development of ballistic missile is capped at 300 km. Both developed cruise missiles with ranges greater than 1000km, such as the US LRASM:

Pakistan isn't a signatory to the MTCR, according to the MTCR and thus it could offer Ra'ad if it chooses to do so. Again, it wouldn't look good internationally and it might invite the wrath of the US, but it isn't a violation of an agreement Pakistan didn't sign:

The Missile Technology Control Regime

The Missile Technology Control Regime at a Glance | Arms Control Association



Not exactly, because during the development of Ra'ad Pakistan wasn't (and still isn't) a signatory or ratifier of the NPT, it can void or ignore any such agreement within - so to can nations like China ignore the MTCR since it isn't a signatory, and the US can ignore the Convention on Cluster Munitions since it didn't ratify that either:

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

It doesn't look good in international politics, but it isn't a violation of the NPT if Pakistan didn't ratify the treaty.

Pakistan and India refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty



So? Japan doesn't have nuclear weapons, but it can develop them if needed - this is called the "Japan option," or being paranuclear:

Paranuclear capacity is the condition of a country possessing the technology to quickly build nuclear weapons, without having actually yet done so. Because such latent capability is not proscribed by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, this is sometimes called the "Japan Option" (as a work-around to the treaty), as Japan is a clear case of a country with complete technical prowess to develop a nuclear weapon quickly, or as it is sometimes called "being one screwdriver's turn" from the bomb, as Japan is considered to have the materials, expertise and technical capacity to make a nuclear bomb at will.

The Japan Option

Not having a weapon doesn't mean one doesn't have the expertise to do so. And for the record, South Africa did have a comparable weapon - the MUPSOW/TORGOS:

Payload - 500kg
Range - 300kg

South Africans put Torgos on display

And frankly, who care if Pakistan had help with Ra'ad? Pakistan builds it, is upgrading it and fields it, for all intents and purposes, it's Pakistani, even if during its development Pakistan had help.

You were just beating around the bush but forgot to answer. These are the glaring flaws in your answers.
SA never completed that program. Furthermore, You are saying that a country which dismantled its nuclear program on some principles, would help another country in developing a nuclear capable missile. Wow what a moronic thinking

 

[Abdullah S.]

I agree with the general principle of Pakistan requiring an ICBM for ultimate protection form states like the US who threatened to bomb us to stone age after 9/11 even though we had nothing to do with it. If back then we had operational ICBMs which were able to penetrate Americans ABM shields then you can be damn sure that we would not have been threatened that way. No one can guarantee that a similar false flag attack won't occur in a US or NATO city sometime in the future and Pakistan would not be blamed for it entirely. In such a scenario we would have to have credible ICMBs so that everyone knows that Pakistan cannot be attacked just on the whims of a few fanatical people in the west .

But I also agree that we have more pressing needs first like developing SSNs with cruise missiles of ranges of 2500-3500 km to ensure a 2nd strike capability, upgrading current missiles so that they can easily penetrate Indian ABM shields and if India buys something like patriot or THAAD somehow then penetrating those using quasi balletic trajectory like recent Chinese missiles, MIRV, decoy warheads in MIRV, reentry vehicle maneuverability etc.

So in my opinion, our realistic course of action for deterring a NATO or US attack after a false flag terrorist operation in their cities and to simultaneously counter India at the same time should be :

1. Develop SSNs in large numbers i.e 6-10 which would be our strategic 2nd strike force spread across the oceans carrying nuclear capable cruise missiles of ranges 3500+ km. They would ensure deterrence against India and anyone else threatening to attack us for what ever reason. If the need arises, our SSNs would travel the oceans and nuke any country in the world from safe distances while staying in International waters.

2. After we have achieved the above and experience in SSN building is good enough we should also develop a few boomers i.e SSBNs which carry nuclear capable ballistic missiles with ranges of 4000-4500 at least. Shaheen 3 already has this range so in this case the BM technologies that I mentioned above like MIRV etc to avoid ABMs would come into play. Hopefully we would have already developed those by the time we focus on an SSBN so everything would fall in place. 3-5 SSBNs would be good enough carrying up to 10 missiles each.

Economically & politically this would be the best way to go forward while ensuring that India and anyone else shits their pants before deciding to attack Pakistan.

 

[SecularNationalist]

I agree with the general principle of Pakistan requiring an ICBM for ultimate protection form states like the US who threatened to bomb us to stone age after 9/11 even though we had nothing to do with it. If back then we had operational ICBMs which were able to penetrate Americans ABM shields then you can be damn sure that we would not have been threatened that way. No one can guarantee that a similar false flag attack won't occur in a US or NATO city sometime in the future and Pakistan would not be blamed for it entirely. In such a scenario we would have to have credible ICMBs so that everyone knows that Pakistan cannot be attacked just on the whims of a few fanatical people in the west .

But I also agree that we have more pressing needs first like developing SSNs with cruise missiles of ranges of 2500-3500 km to ensure a 2nd strike capability, upgrading current missiles so that they can easily penetrate Indian ABM shields and if India buys something like patriot or THAAD somehow then penetrating those using quasi balletic trajectory like recent Chinese missiles, MIRV, decoy warheads in MIRV, reentry vehicle maneuverability etc.

So in my opinion, our realistic course of action for deterring a NATO or US attack after a false flag terrorist operation in their cities and to simultaneously counter India at the same time should be :

1. Develop SSNs in large numbers i.e 6-10 which would be our strategic 2nd strike force spread across the oceans carrying nuclear capable cruise missiles of ranges 3500+ km. They would ensure deterrence against India and anyone else threatening to attack us for what ever reason. If the need arises, our SSNs would travel the oceans and nuke any country in the world from safe distances while staying in International waters.

2. After we have achieved the above and experience in SSN building is good enough we should also develop a few boomers i.e SSBNs which carry nuclear capable ballistic missiles with ranges of 4000-4500 at least. Shaheen 3 already has this range so in this case the BM technologies that I mentioned above like MIRV etc to avoid ABMs would come into play. Hopefully we would have already developed those by the time we focus on an SSBN so everything would fall in place. 3-5 SSBNs would be good enough carrying up to 10 missiles each.

Economically this would be the best way to go forward while ensuring that India and anyone else shits their pants before deciding to attack Pakistan.

I believe getting a stealthy nuclear submarine right now is most crucial for pakistan nuclear deterrence and that,s even more important than getting a ICBM.You know it,s quite scary for america to think about some stealthy nuclear armed submarine hiding near new york city.

 

[war&peace]

I agree with the general principle of Pakistan requiring an ICBM for ultimate protection form states like the US who threatened to bomb us to stone age after 9/11 even though we had nothing to do with it. If back then we had operational ICBMs which were able to penetrate Americans ABM shields then you can be damn sure that we would not have been threatened that way. No one can guarantee that a similar false flag attack won't occur in a US or NATO city sometime in the future and Pakistan would not be blamed for it entirely. In such a scenario we would have to have credible ICMBs so that everyone knows that Pakistan cannot be attacked just on the whims of a few fanatical people in the west .

But I also agree that we have more pressing needs first like developing SSNs with cruise missiles of ranges of 2500-3500 km to ensure a 2nd strike capability, upgrading current missiles so that they can easily penetrate Indian ABM shields and if India buys something like patriot or THAAD somehow then penetrating those using quasi balletic trajectory like recent Chinese missiles, MIRV, decoy warheads in MIRV, reentry vehicle maneuverability etc.

So in my opinion, our realistic course of action for deterring a NATO or US attack after a false flag terrorist operation in their cities and to simultaneously counter India at the same time should be :

1. Develop SSNs in large numbers i.e 6-10 which would be our strategic 2nd strike force spread across the oceans carrying nuclear capable cruise missiles of ranges 3500+ km. They would ensure deterrence against India and anyone else threatening to attack us for what ever reason. If the need arises, our SSNs would travel the oceans and nuke any country in the world from safe distances while staying in International waters.

2. After we have achieved the above and experience in SSN building is good enough we should also develop a few boomers i.e SSBNs which carry nuclear capable ballistic missiles with ranges of 4000-4500 at least. Shaheen 3 already has this range so in this case the BM technologies that I mentioned above like MIRV etc to avoid ABMs would come into play. Hopefully we would have already developed those by the time we focus on an SSBN so everything would fall in place. 3-5 SSBNs would be good enough carrying up to 10 missiles each.

Economically this would be the best way to go forward while ensuring that India and anyone else shits their pants before deciding to attack Pakistan.

I principle we agree. And I know that we have but I can't disclose. We also need to build SSNs will long range SLBMs and LRSLCMs, but it needs money and time. Defence development is directly related to economic growth. Any disparity among those two can invite troubles. USSR is one example. Build your economic base first and then go on to challenge others. R&D and science institutions to get some original and true research and very strong industrial and scientific base.

 

[kṣamā]

you seem to be quit familiar with Dijbouti. Any ICBM or MIRV program would be confidential, and shown to public eye only when the politics of it becomes necessary. I am not a politician, I can only refer to the technology of the subject. As a technology, it already exists in Pakistan for a long time. Has it be implemented? I am sure you also get CNN in Dijbouti

 

[black-hawk_101]

What about the Chinese retired ICBMs?

 

[Bilal Khan 777]

1. SA has nothing similar in its arsenal except for some long range glide bombs of previous generation. If I am wrong, would you like to mention a few SA ALCMS.
2. Furthermore the MTCR ends at 300 km (just refresh your knowledge) while Ra'ad has 350 km which surely is above MTCR range and that is why it is not up for exports.
3. The range is limited due to the engine availability. Initially they wanted a western origin engine that would have given it range of 700+ km range. But it was too expensive.
4. In addition, Ra'ad is designed to carry both nuclear and conventional warheads and this just makes impossible for any international collaboration.....not even China would do that openly.

For the Pakistani ALCMs, it is not the price of the western engine but the political permission to buy a Williams or TM engine that brings it to current options.

 

[denel]

You were just beating around the bush but forgot to answer. These are the glaring flaws in your answers.
SA never completed that program. Furthermore, You are saying that a country which dismantled its nuclear program on some principles, would help another country in developing a nuclear capable missile. Wow what a moronic thinking

i think you were referring to someone else.
money is the cause... we need to sell and raad is a classic example of TOT being based off our MUPSOW. We had no need for WMDs which is why they were dismantled. our biggest challenge is illegals...

 

[SecularNationalist]

@war&peace dude you are wrong SA helped us in making RAAD.

 

[Bilal Khan 777]

i think you were referring to someone else.
money is the cause... we need to sell and raad is a classic example of TOT being based off our MUPSOW. We had no need for WMDs which is why they were dismantled. our biggest challenge is illegals...

Raad ALCM is the pure indigenous weapon. An inspection from MUPSOW (ToT or assembly? check your facts) doesn't mean Raad was designed by Denel. What use what the MUPSOW ToT that we couldn't take the program anywhere? Just off the ball comments from you which are devoid of facts.

 

[war&peace]

@war&peace dude you are wrong SA helped us in making RAAD.

I know more than you about Ra'ad ALCM. So thank you but no thank you

 

[denel]

I know more than you about Ra'ad ALCM. So thank you but no thank you

good for you... enjoy our technology which you claim as yours. plagurism at its best.

 

[war&peace]

good for you... enjoy our technology which you claim as yours. plagurism at its best.

No it is NOT your technology but if you want to keep calling it your technology...go ahead I don't stop you. Keep ranting.

Iran is not a threat.Well as far as the sanctions are concerned we have already dealt with them in the past and sactions won,t affect pakistan much.Our military supplies will keep flowing from china and russia and to some extent we are now self sufficient in military industrial complex unlike in the past.
Those countries brag about hitting any place on earth with their ICBM,s and the fact is not the whole world is their enemy but they are threatening everyone.We were really threatened by them in the past and they still pose a threat so why we should not get ICBM?
My friend this is a hypocrite world in which we all live.

On a deeper reflection, I think it is the right for Pakistan to test its ICBM (Taimour I/II). I agree with you on most of the points: I'm sure there would be no sanction at all since India already tested an ICBM and if we test it too, the west will not be able to sanction Pakistan alone i.e. they will sanction india too. Although Islamophobic media will bark like a mad dog for some time but in the end it will work out fine for us and it would provide Pakistan a certain diplomatic leverage and manoeuvrability at global scale since the world is ruled by a single principal principle that the might is right....everything else is a megashit.

 

[Bouncer]

For what purpose? It will be like "Aa bail mujhe maar".

@denel , I have lived and worked in SA for a few years. Amazing people. The Pakistanis working there are hard working people and I believe they are thankful for the opportunities the Rainbow Nation has offered them. I hope you don't project the image of Pakistanis you get here on PDF on to Pakistanis living in SA. That being said, it seems that your illegal economic immigrants will start returning to their home countries soon they way ANC is running the country. Hope things change for better over there.

On topic, do you have any source to back up this claim that Ra'ad is based on some South African design?

 

[Pakistanisage]

Hi there)It,s no surprise we have the ICBM technology but we are not revealing it for some political reasons.Our missiles currently cover all India the main rival of Pakistan.But they don,t pose any threat or deterrence against the NATO or american allies.That,s the reason we have seen some gangsterism of NATO and america inside pakistan in the past.So i believe the ICBM which can target most NATO members(excluding turkey for obvious reasons) in europe will keep america and NATO out of this region and they will think thrice before any misadventure. What do you think?
Sorry if i said something naive or childish as i am not an expert in this field.

Even if we have the ICBM capability, we should keep it a secret because we don't want to make any enemies.