Let us separate the fact from the fiction. From 1989-2001, the global arena for international terrorism (Al-Qaeda) was Afghanistan. Even to this day, it is Afghanistan. But now, Pakistan has been added to the picture as well. The US can talk all it wants about only 50-100 Al-Qaeda fighters being left in Afghanistan today, it does not make it true. As we all know, the Al-Qaeda have strong control over the areas of Kunar & parts of Nuristan after the US abandoned their posts. Terrorists like Qari Zia Rehman, an open enemy of Pakistan, is clearly given refuge in Kunar. The IMU, the Al-Qaeda affiliated group & the biggest threat to Uzbekistan, is based in Northern Afghanistan, not Pakistan. The US has made a big mistake by not confronting the safe havens in Kunar & Nuristan, as they are strong Al-Qaeda safe havens that are a nuisance for the whole region, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Chechnya, & the rest of the world. A few weeks ago, some Chechen people tried to infiltrate into Quetta, Balochistan from Afghanistan; & they got killed by the Border Forces. What purpose did they have coming into Pakistan? There are already some Chechen terrorists in Pakistan's tribal areas; as are Somalian, Yemeni, Uzbek, German & Arab terrorists that have no business being in Pakistan & who the Pakistan Army is fighting against constantly. Where do they come from? Not from the airports inside Pakistan, but from the safe havens of Kunar & Nuristan in Afghanistan. Kunar, with its Salafi extremist culture, as well as its Arab nature, is the perfect recruiting tool for these international terrorists from Arab & other countries. Compared to Pakistan where the Pakistan government has control of almost all of Pakistan, it is the Afghan terrorists that have most of the control over eastern provinces in Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda fighters flow freely & easily through Northern Afghanistan.
The point I am trying to make here is that from 1989-2001, Pakistan supported Afghan elements that gave it strategic depth there. Pakistan supported certain elements that gave it strategic depth in Indian administered Kashmir. Before 2001, there was practically no Al-Qaeda in Pakistan. After the 2001 US invasion, many Al-Qaeda fighters got refuge in Pakistan's tribal areas. As you can see; there are some Yemeni, Somali, German, Uzbek, Chechen fighters that have infiltrated into Pakistan's tribal areas from Afghanistan & given refuge there, the fighters that were never present in Pakistan before 2001. Furthermore, Pakistan has no use for these Yemeni, Somali, German, Uzbek, Chechen fighters: it does not give them any kind of strategic depth. These group of fighters are useless to Pakistan. Chechen fighters that threaten Chechnya or Russia are of no use to Pakistan, as Chechnya has no use to Pakistan. In other words, these international fighters are nothing but trouble to Pakistan.
There is a huge propaganda war going on against Pakistan that alleges that Pakistan somehow uses all these terrorists for its strategic depth, & that Pakistan is responsible for all the global terrorism. Nothing could be further from the truth, & unless the actual problems are addressed, the situation in the region won't be solved. It is easy to make Pakistan the scapegoat for all the problems in the world, without actually looking at the real problems of the region.
Pakistan might use local Jihadi groups for strategic depth in Afghanistan & India, but it has no use for the globalist Islamic agenda. This is the reality the world has to accept. Before 2001, there were hardly any Al-Qaeda fighters in Pakistan. Ever since the Afghan war, they have infiltrated from Afghanistan into Pakistan, & they have been rejuvenated in their "zeal" of overthrowing the occupying forces in Afghanistan. The important question is: once the NATO troops withdraw (or significantly reduce) from Afghanistan, will the Al-Qaeda with the globalist agenda leave Pakistan? The most straightforward conclusion one can come up with, is yes: they will. The US as a non-Muslim force occupying "Islamic/Muslim" land rejuvenated them to come together, & they see it from that spectrum. In most probability, they will go back to where they came from once the war is over. The fact is, that the Al-Qaeda international fighters are at the behest of the local Jihadi groups in the region, to provide them shelter & protection: they can't survive in the region without the protection of the local Jihadi groups. As the international group of extremists is not local to the region, they will most probability leave once the Afghanistan issue is resolved. But what if they don't? The Pakistan Intelligence is banking on the hopes that these international fighters are only in Pakistan temporarily, as they weren't in Pakistan pre-9/11.
However, the local Jihadi groups in Pakistan might decide to keep them against the Pakistan government, in case they feel threatened by the Pakistan Army. Hence, in my opinion, it is imperative not to break ties with these local groups, & come up with a solution that doesn't undermine Pakistan. I believe that it is the international Al-Qaeda fighters with the globalist Islamist agenda that are the real problem, the local groups are not a problem by themselves as long as they don't provide shelter to the international Al-Qaeda fighters with the globalist agenda. In a similar way to what the US is doing by negotiating settlements with the Taliban in the Afghanistan end-game, Pakistan must ensure that it maintains ties to local groups, so that these groups don't start a war with Pakistan, & then have to resort to giving safe havens to Al-Qaeda fighters, as long as these local groups by themselves do not challenge the state of Pakistan like they do when affiliated with Al-Qaeda.
This is not the conclusion most of us would like to see in my opinion, but this is what might be the end-state for the region. Pakistan is bidding out its time till the US packs up & leaves, & is looking at damage control mechanisms inside the country right now. My two cents.
