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Rafale is not a Game Changer - Senior Analyst Shahzad Chaudhry

To be frank, if the PAF had gotten the Rafale instead of India, there'd be a dozen threads saying, "how the Rafale gives the PAF the edge..." etc.

We should change our mindset. By downplaying India's moves, we are giving our government and military decision-makers a pass. No more passes.

If we're too broke to afford new weapons, we need to then take those not doing their job (of growing the economy) accountable.

It's classical South Asian mindset, we can't stand back for a moment and look at prevailing realities using a rational, objective approach. As I've alluded to in another thread, this constant childish brinkmanship does immense damage, and the indians are no less guilty if not even more so. I don't think the PAF are foolish enough to underestimate their opponent.

The PAF has demonstrated that in lieu of acquiring new assets due to lack of funding, they've upgraded existing airframes to meet the evolving threat dynamic - the Mirages and Vipers being a classic example. In the same light, in my view we'll see an AESA/V-type upgrade of the Viper fleet, supplemented with additional numbers if finances and politics allows. In addition, Block-I/II Thunders are likely to receive an AESA upgrade, given the ever increasing numbers of AESA equipped fighters in the IAF fleet, backed up by further EW assets. A two-type hi/lo fleet comprising Vipers and Thunders is the most likely scenario for the next 10 years or so, I can't see any additional types being inducted this side of Azm.
 
We were once considering it but it’s super duper expensive. 22 years ago when the PAF were considering the Rafael they would have been game changers now not so much, this is comparable to JF-17 block 3s and block 50 f-16s

if you disagree please enlighten us how this is a game changer?

KV
Well for starters, India is getting a BVRAAM with the longest no-escape zone of any commercially available AAM today. We don't know how much this NEZ actually is, but the fact that the Meteor is making its way as a standard AAM in UK, Germany, France, Sweden, and now South Korea, we should be weary.

Second, the Rafale is a superb strike asset. The Indians can carry out stand-off range strikes using ALCMs and guided, rocket-assisted PGBs (for low-value targets). Yes, we have the capability too, but the fact that India will have it means that our ground-based assets along the LoC are under threat.

Third, the Rafale brings an excellent ECM capability. Yes, the F-16s and JF-17s have ECM too, fair, but we have yet to deploy a fleet-wide AESA radar. So, our radars are at risk of getting jammed, while India's Rafales won't have as much trouble (thanks to the RBE2 AESA radar).

Fourth, India is going to get its 36 Rafales a bit sooner than the PAF will get its 50-odd JF-17 Block-IIIs. We are still waiting for the first 2 units. Never mind the fact that we have yet to integrate weapons to the Block-III.

Now, I get we hear a lot of self-assuring FB posts about PL-15 or other mystery Chinese AAMs with long ranges, but these aren't facts. These are guesses at best, and hopes at worst.
It's classical South Asian mindset, we can't stand back for a moment and look at prevailing realities using a rational, objective approach. As I've alluded to in another thread, this constant childish brinkmanship does immense damage, and the indians are no less guilty if not even more so. I don't think the PAF are foolish enough to underestimate their opponent.

The PAF has demonstrated that in lieu of acquiring new assets due to lack of funding, they've upgraded existing airframes to meet the evolving threat dynamic - the Mirages and Vipers being a classic example. In the same light, in my view we'll see an AESA/V-type upgrade of the Viper fleet, supplemented with additional numbers if finances and politics allows. In addition, Block-I/II Thunders are likely to receive an AESA upgrade, given the ever increasing numbers of AESA equipped fighters in the IAF fleet, backed up by further EW assets. A two-type hi/lo fleet comprising Vipers and Thunders is the most likely scenario for the next 10 years or so, I can't see any additional types being inducted this side of Azm.
I agree. We don't have to get Rafale/Typhoon to match India's Rafale purchase. For the $$ India is spending on the Rafale, we can do much, much more. However, I fear we lack even that spending power.

In an earlier age, we might have been able to foot an F-16V upgrade, buy 1-2 F-16 Block-72 squadrons, expand the Block-III, and slot in AESA radars for Block-II and JF-17B.

We can probably get all this done for $9 b tops (i.e., a totally new fighter fleet), which isn't a lot if we split it across 5-10 years. It should be doable for a country our size, but we are soooooo criminally mismanaged, that even the minimum isn't possible.

True story, I heard a PAF person say, 'I don't think we need to upgrade Block-II or JF-17B with AESA radars..." Guy knows in his heart that a non-upgrade is BS, he's only talking it up because, sadly, it might be our only option.
 
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Well for starters, India is getting a BVRAAM with the longest no-escape zone of any commercially available AAM today. We don't know how much this NEZ actually is, but the fact that the Meteor is making its way as a standard AAM in UK, Germany, France, Sweden, and now South Korea, we should be weary.

Second, the Rafale is a superb strike asset. The Indians can carry out stand-off range strikes using ALCMs and guided, rocket-assisted PGBs (for low-value targets). Yes, we have the capability too, but the fact that India will have it means that our ground-based assets along the LoC are under threat.

Third, the Rafale brings an excellent ECM capability. Yes, the F-16s and JF-17s have ECM too, fair, but we have yet to deploy a fleet-wide AESA radar. So, our radars are at risk of getting jammed, while India's Rafales won't have as much trouble (thanks to the RBE2 AESA radar).

Fourth, India is going to get its 36 Rafales a bit sooner than the PAF will get its 50-odd JF-17 Block-IIIs. We are still waiting for the first 2 units. Never mind the fact that we have yet to integrate weapons to the Block-III.

Now, I get we hear a lot of self-assuring FB posts about PL-15 or other mystery Chinese AAMs with long ranges, but these aren't facts. These are guesses at best, and hopes at worst.

I agree. We don't have to get Rafale/Typhoon to match India's Rafale purchase. For the $$ India is spending on the Rafale, we can do much, much more. However, I fear we lack even that spending power.

In an earlier age, we might have been able to foot an F-16V upgrade, buy 1-2 F-16 Block-72 squadrons, expand the Block-III, and slot in AESA radars for Block-II and JF-17B.

We can probably get all this done for $9 b tops (i.e., a totally new fighter fleet), which isn't a lot if we split it across 5-10 years. It should be doable for a country our size, but we are soooooo criminally mismanaged, that even the minimum isn't possible.

True story, I heard a PAF person say, 'I don't think we need to upgrade Block-II or JF-17B with AESA radars..." Guy knows in his heart that a non-upgrade is BS, he's only talking it up because, sadly, it might be our only option.

Very well responded.
 
... Did I hear this right - that JF-17 is better than J-10 and China learned something from JF-17 which they used to improve the J-10?.. If true, Chinese must be quite stupid to not produce 100s of JFs for PLAF.

Yes. China wanted to go the J-10 way and joint venture was offered to Pakistan in early 2000s but PAF fully concentrated on joint venture of JF-17 Thunder.

J-10 is a medium-weight fighter and Pakistan desperately needed a light-weight fighter to replace hundreds of light-weight F-6s, F-7s and A-5s, hence, the JF-17 Thunder.

China did not go for the JF-17 Thunders simply because they had significantly improved their JH-7s from the 1990s onwards and Pakistan lost interest to some extent in the Super-7 / FC-1 program.
 
Now, I get we hear a lot of self-assuring FB posts about PL-15 or other mystery Chinese AAMs with long ranges, but these aren't facts. These are guesses at best, and hopes at worst.

@Bilal Khan (Quwa) Are you saying that the info we have so far regarding PL-15 range and other data could be incorrect and much lower than it's shown?

Also, the Block I we have they will not be getting the upgrade for AESA and Block II & III will be the candidates?
 
@Bilal Khan (Quwa) Are you saying that the info we have so far regarding PL-15 range and other data could be incorrect and much lower than it's shown?

Also, the Block I we have they will not be getting the upgrade for AESA and Block II & III will be the candidates?
Re: PL-15. I'll happily stand corrected with official specifications from the OEM, but otherwise, I'm going to take what our watchers say about it with a grain of salt.

Re: Block-I / Block-II, there's no ETA on when -- or if -- we'll upgrade them with AESA radars. It would make sense to upgrade them (e.g., the LKF601 is apparently easy to integrate to older JF-17 blocks), but no word on it by the PAF. The fact that we opted to take the JF-17B with KLJ-7V2 instead of LKF601E is a little concerning IMHO.
 
Re: PL-15. I'll happily stand corrected with official specifications from the OEM, but otherwise, I'm going to take what our watchers say about it with a grain of salt.

Re: Block-I / Block-II, there's no ETA on when -- or if -- we'll upgrade them with AESA radars. It would make sense to upgrade them (e.g., the LKF601 is apparently easy to integrate to older JF-17 blocks), but no word on it by the PAF. The fact that we opted to take the JF-17B with KLJ-7V2 instead of LKF601E is a little concerning IMHO.

Not to familiar with either, but what's the main cause of concern you'd have the range or capability?
 
Rafaelle Jet is definitely is best interest of Pakistan as an investment. Trust me, I would like to speak to him and give him reasons.
 
Not to familiar with either, but what's the main cause of concern you'd have the range or capability?
Re: PL-15 ... I'd want a guarantee that the PAF can get an AAM with a comparable NEZ and ECCM as Meteor.

Re: AESA radars ... I'd rather we institute a fleet-wide AESA capability across all 188 JF-17s by 2030. This will give the PAF the flexibility to use each of its fighters in ECM-dense environments (and force India to commit very heavily to exert enough of an advantage over the PAF).
 
Re: PL-15 ... I'd want a guarantee that the PAF can get an AAM with a comparable NEZ and ECCM as Meteor.

Re: AESA radars ... I'd rather we institute a fleet-wide AESA capability across all 188 JF-17s by 2030. This will give the PAF the flexibility to use each of its fighters in ECM-dense environments (and force India to commit very heavily to exert enough of an advantage over the PAF).

Has it ever been officially confirmed we have access to PL-15? I can't remember ever seeing an official source for this. Although I have no doubt we could eventually acquire it, but at the moment I think it's mostly speculation and vapaware?
 
There is nothing special about Rafale. You can do just so much while designing a 4th gen platform. You may call it 4.5 or 4+ Generation but at the end of day it is just a glorified 4th gen aircraft. India already had the capability with SU30s but they wanted to cutt us off from french market so made this purchase in a hurry by paying a hefty price. SU30 is more capable than Rafale in many aspects and could have been upgraded if to overcome any gaps in its capabilities. Unless India inducts a 5th gen fighter Pakistan can match anything in Indian Inventory. Indians as usual are trying to sell Gobar as gold so pay no heed to the foolS.
Frankly speaking, it is a good aircraft overall. The best aircraft to counter it is Gripen-E.

Thales and other french consortiums do have good products but albeit expensive. 36 is not a game changer in my opinion; it will be another 2-3 years before the maturity and experience of operations shows through. Given the threat from the north, they are more enticing for an engagement with the Chinese vs Pak right now.
 
The plane is over hyped and so is its operator, IAF.
 
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