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Polarised politics are tearing Pakistan apart

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The stakes have never been higher in Pakistan.

Its economy is on the brink, society is politically polarised, millions are still recovering from last year's devastating floods, terror attacks are increasing and, as inflation soars ever higher, many are struggling to feed themselves and their children.

While the country suffers, politicians and institutions have been pulled into a power struggle over who should run Pakistan.

Despite the hours of air time, ferociously delivered ultimatums and street stand-offs, Pakistan seems no closer to answering that question than it was a year ago.


What makes this current situation unprecedented is the backdrop of other serious crisis," says Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center.

"Pakistan doesn't have the luxury of saying this political crisis is a distraction, eventually we'll get back to where things need to be."

Pakistan's economy is struggling. Its foreign reserves, which pay for imports including fuel, have plummeted to one of the lowest levels in decades. Meetings with the International Monetary Fund earlier this year are yet to result in a deal to unlock $1.1bn in crucial funds.


The former prime minister's personality lies at the heart of the crisis, say analysts who spoke to the BBC

Meanwhile militants continue to launch attacks, often targeting security forces. Pakistan's armed forces recently said there had been 436 terror attacks so far in 2023. And militant groups regularly release infographics showing the number they claim to have killed or injured, and the arms they've seized around the country.

Add to this the ever-climbing food inflation, plus the fact that Pakistan is still recovering from the damage done by last year's floods before this year's rains begin again - and there is no shortage of big questions politicians need to answer.

"Political uncertainty is making things even more difficult for the entire system," says Mehmal Sarfraz, a political analyst. "The system is collapsing in Pakistan. If that happens, it won't benefit anyone - neither the political parties or the people of Pakistan."

Why is politics deadlocked?
Analysts say the current situation was sparked when Imran Khan was ousted from his position as prime minister in April 2022 in a vote of no confidence.

"Khan refused to accept it," Mr Kugelman says. "And it was quite clear that the government was not going to ignore Khan's activism and agitation either."

Mr Khan responded with a series of rallies around the country, and a long march to the capital, Islamabad.

The number of court cases against him has been rising - his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party says there are over 100 - and charges include terrorism, corruption and contempt of court. But the former prime minister has made this a part of his campaign, accusing the government of living by the "law of the jungle".

insufficient funds and the security situation. That would be very damaging, Mr Bilal says.

"I think it would be very unfortunate and will probably damage the democratic process in Pakistan, maybe in an unrepairable manner. We've never seen elections postponed."

The government and Mr Khan's PTI party have already held talks about the elections. While there is common agreement that the national and provincial elections should be held at the same time, there is still no agreement about when that might happen.


Video caption,
Watch: Imran Khan's chaotic court summons in 60 seconds

But even agreeing on dates might not be enough, according to Ms Sarfraz.

"Even if elections do take place now, there will not be a conflict resolution unless and until the political parties decide what their red lines are." She argues that if both sides don't set out exactly what they expect to keep elections fair, both will dispute the result and continue to divide the country.

That leaves it up to the politicians to come to an agreement, a difficult task in a fraught, politically divided country.

"You're political rivals, you're not personal enemies," Ms Sarfraz says.

"It's time that we take things forward and talk to each other before there's a collapse of the entire system

 
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