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Sadanand Dhume: The Pakistan Problem - WSJ.com
Those who accuse Barack Obama of cold-shouldering Britain and stiff-arming Israel might find his choice of a country to shower with praise somewhat perplexing. According to the White House, the president opened a meeting Sunday with Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani "by noting that he is very fond of Pakistan, having visited the country during college." Mr. Obama also spoke about "shared values" between the United States and Pakistan, and "the fight we are both engaged in against extremists operating in South Asia."
For the most part, this kind of polite blather is par for the course in diplomacy. So we can ignore the incongruity of claiming shared values with a country that boasts a rogue nuclear program, a notoriously double-dealing intelligence establishment, a patchy commitment to democracy and one of the most virulently anti-American populations on the planet. (According to the Pew Global Attitudes project, only one in six Pakistanis holds a favorable opinion of America.) But Mr. Obama's bonhomie toward Mr. Gilani is accompanied by a much more troublesome development, an apparent willingness to consider a flawed Pakistani roadmap to peace in South Asia.
As this newspaper reported last week, in December Mr. Obama issued a secret directive to step up American diplomacy aimed at easing tensions between India and Pakistan. Washington has begun to lean on New Delhi to limit its training of the Afghan army. There is talk of asking India to pull back troops from its border with Pakistan, and thin its forces in the disputed territory of Kashmir. If Islamabad has its way, India's consulates in Jalalabad and Kandahar may be shuttered, and its humanitarian work among Afghanistan's war-ravaged population ended or severely curtailed.
At first blush, this tilt toward Pakistan isn't entirely unreasonable. America requires the cooperation of the Pakistani military, the only functioning institution in the country, to battle the Taliban in both Pakistan and Afghanistan and lay the groundwork for withdrawing American troops from a thankless war. Moreover, since last year, Pakistan's army has shown a new willingness to combat some of the Islamist militias it helped spawn. Soldiers have wrested the picturesque Swat valley in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (formerly called North West Frontier Province) back from the Pakistani Taliban. In February, Pakistan helped American intelligence agents nab Mullah Baradar, the Afghan Taliban's military chief. They would do more, say Pakistan's generals, if only Indian troops on their borders, and bustling Indian consulates in Afghanistan, didn't make Islamabad feel insecure.
But Pakistan's insecurities are largely in its generals' minds. Its sheer size may make India appear threatening, but its disposition tells a different story. The government in New Delhi, headed by a mild-mannered Oxford-educated economist Manmohan Singh, has put economic development at the heart of its agenda. Despite repeated provocations, including the November 2008 murder in Mumbai of 166 people by Pakistani terrorists, New Delhi has refused to be drawn into war with Islamabad.
Moreover, as even a cursory glance at the country's newspapers and magazines shows, India's strategic establishment is far more preoccupied by the internal threat posed by a violent Maoist movementresponsible for killing 76 federal police officers in the central Indian state of Chhattisgarh earlier this monththan on dreams of capturing Lahore or Karachi. India's popular culture is similarly inward looking. Cricket, Bollywood, the endless machinations of domestic politics, and, of late, breathless tales of freshly minted billionaires, dominate the airwaves. The average Indian spends more time worrying about the fortunes of his favorite Indian Premier League cricket team than fretting about force posture on the Western border. In short, left to its own devices, Indiademocratic, self-obsessed and increasingly prosperouswould more likely yawn at Pakistan than growl at it.
Unfortunately, Pakistan's peculiar history, and the disproportionate role of its army in national life, doesn't allow India to ignore it. Carved out of British India in 1947 as the world's first modern state created solely on the basis of Islam, Pakistan has always been touched by a certain messianic zeal. In the 1970s, this manifested itself in genocide against Bangladeshis. In the 1980s, the country became ground zero for a global jihad against the Soviet Union. In the 1990s, the Pakistani army's notorious Inter-Services Intelligence sponsored the Taliban in its quest for "strategic depth" and desire to turn Afghanistan into a client state to offset India's larger size. At the same time, it cultivated a jihadist network in both Pakistan and Indian Kashmir. It's hard to think of any other bankrupt countryPakistan is kept afloat by multilateral donors and Western largesse, most recently a $7.5 billion aid package from Americawith such delusions of grandeur.
Needless to say, the Obama administration is right in seeking to wield American influence for peace in South Asia. But rewarding Pakistan for its pursuit of jihadism while punishing India for nurturing democracy and opening up its economy ought to be a bridge too far even for an administration with a reputation for stiffing friends and coddling enemies.
Those who accuse Barack Obama of cold-shouldering Britain and stiff-arming Israel might find his choice of a country to shower with praise somewhat perplexing. According to the White House, the president opened a meeting Sunday with Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani "by noting that he is very fond of Pakistan, having visited the country during college." Mr. Obama also spoke about "shared values" between the United States and Pakistan, and "the fight we are both engaged in against extremists operating in South Asia."
For the most part, this kind of polite blather is par for the course in diplomacy. So we can ignore the incongruity of claiming shared values with a country that boasts a rogue nuclear program, a notoriously double-dealing intelligence establishment, a patchy commitment to democracy and one of the most virulently anti-American populations on the planet. (According to the Pew Global Attitudes project, only one in six Pakistanis holds a favorable opinion of America.) But Mr. Obama's bonhomie toward Mr. Gilani is accompanied by a much more troublesome development, an apparent willingness to consider a flawed Pakistani roadmap to peace in South Asia.
As this newspaper reported last week, in December Mr. Obama issued a secret directive to step up American diplomacy aimed at easing tensions between India and Pakistan. Washington has begun to lean on New Delhi to limit its training of the Afghan army. There is talk of asking India to pull back troops from its border with Pakistan, and thin its forces in the disputed territory of Kashmir. If Islamabad has its way, India's consulates in Jalalabad and Kandahar may be shuttered, and its humanitarian work among Afghanistan's war-ravaged population ended or severely curtailed.
At first blush, this tilt toward Pakistan isn't entirely unreasonable. America requires the cooperation of the Pakistani military, the only functioning institution in the country, to battle the Taliban in both Pakistan and Afghanistan and lay the groundwork for withdrawing American troops from a thankless war. Moreover, since last year, Pakistan's army has shown a new willingness to combat some of the Islamist militias it helped spawn. Soldiers have wrested the picturesque Swat valley in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (formerly called North West Frontier Province) back from the Pakistani Taliban. In February, Pakistan helped American intelligence agents nab Mullah Baradar, the Afghan Taliban's military chief. They would do more, say Pakistan's generals, if only Indian troops on their borders, and bustling Indian consulates in Afghanistan, didn't make Islamabad feel insecure.
But Pakistan's insecurities are largely in its generals' minds. Its sheer size may make India appear threatening, but its disposition tells a different story. The government in New Delhi, headed by a mild-mannered Oxford-educated economist Manmohan Singh, has put economic development at the heart of its agenda. Despite repeated provocations, including the November 2008 murder in Mumbai of 166 people by Pakistani terrorists, New Delhi has refused to be drawn into war with Islamabad.
Moreover, as even a cursory glance at the country's newspapers and magazines shows, India's strategic establishment is far more preoccupied by the internal threat posed by a violent Maoist movementresponsible for killing 76 federal police officers in the central Indian state of Chhattisgarh earlier this monththan on dreams of capturing Lahore or Karachi. India's popular culture is similarly inward looking. Cricket, Bollywood, the endless machinations of domestic politics, and, of late, breathless tales of freshly minted billionaires, dominate the airwaves. The average Indian spends more time worrying about the fortunes of his favorite Indian Premier League cricket team than fretting about force posture on the Western border. In short, left to its own devices, Indiademocratic, self-obsessed and increasingly prosperouswould more likely yawn at Pakistan than growl at it.
Unfortunately, Pakistan's peculiar history, and the disproportionate role of its army in national life, doesn't allow India to ignore it. Carved out of British India in 1947 as the world's first modern state created solely on the basis of Islam, Pakistan has always been touched by a certain messianic zeal. In the 1970s, this manifested itself in genocide against Bangladeshis. In the 1980s, the country became ground zero for a global jihad against the Soviet Union. In the 1990s, the Pakistani army's notorious Inter-Services Intelligence sponsored the Taliban in its quest for "strategic depth" and desire to turn Afghanistan into a client state to offset India's larger size. At the same time, it cultivated a jihadist network in both Pakistan and Indian Kashmir. It's hard to think of any other bankrupt countryPakistan is kept afloat by multilateral donors and Western largesse, most recently a $7.5 billion aid package from Americawith such delusions of grandeur.
Needless to say, the Obama administration is right in seeking to wield American influence for peace in South Asia. But rewarding Pakistan for its pursuit of jihadism while punishing India for nurturing democracy and opening up its economy ought to be a bridge too far even for an administration with a reputation for stiffing friends and coddling enemies.