Pakistani Taliban Factions Complicate U.S.-Afghan Negotiations

[fatman17]

Pakistani Taliban Factions Complicate U.S.-Afghan Negotiations


January 4, 2013

Summary



Pakistani protesters demonstrate against U.S. unmanned aerial vehicle strikes on Jan. 3


A suspected U.S. unmanned aerial vehicle strike in Pakistan's tribal region Jan. 3 killed a key Taliban leader who had been helping Islamabad combat hostile Taliban factions. The top warlord of the Ahmadzai Waziri tribe, Maulvi Nazir, and several of his close associates died when missiles struck the house where they were meeting in Angoor Adda, South Waziristan. Nazir's death comes a little over a month after anti-Pakistan rival Taliban forces attempted to assassinate him.

Maulvi Nazir's reported death is a setback for Islamabad's efforts against Taliban rebels and could give Pakistan's main Taliban rebel group, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, the opportunity to come back in South Waziristan. A U.S. strike killing Nazir could push his group or other larger Taliban factions, such as that of Hafiz Gul Bahadur in North Waziristan, to align with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. The result could be a much more potent insurgency against the Pakistani state, weakening it to the point that it could become unable to play a meaningful role in negotiations about Afghanistan's future.



Analysis

Islamabad considers Maulvi Nazir's group a benevolent Taliban faction because the tribal militia has not waged war against the Pakistani state, although it has been involved in militant activity in Afghanistan. Nazir and the Pakistani government had an understanding for years, which helped Pakistan limit the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan's influence in South Waziristan. Tribal divisions played a critical role in this agreement because Nazir was from the Ahmadzai Waziri tribe, which occupies the portion of South Waziristan bordering Afghanistan, while Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan is from the rival Mehsud tribe that inhabits the areas bordering Pakistan's Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province.


From the very early days of the Pakistani Taliban rebellion in 2003-2004, Nazir's group served as a proxy force against the al Qaeda-linked Taliban forces that were hostile to the government. On one occasion, Nazir's forces played a role in pushing out foreign fighters of Uzbek origin. Fearful of getting directly involved in a fight among tribes, the Pakistani government initially hoped that Nazir's proxy force combined with some assistance from state security forces would manage South Waziristan, which in those early days was the nerve center of an array of jihadist forces.

But Nazir's group had other priorities, including fighting in Afghanistan and avoiding a full-scale war between his Waziri tribe and the Mehsud tribe. In late 2007, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan was founded as an alliance of several different tribal militias and groups based in the urban areas of Pakistan, particularly Punjab. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi was the most prominent group to join. Over the next two years, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan expanded by aligning with many of the Taliban militias based in the other six agencies of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and the greater Swat region. This expansion allowed it to project power into the Pakistani core through dozens of high-profile attacks, largely against police, military and intelligence personnel and facilities.

In early 2009, Pakistan's civil and military leaders embarked on a major offensive against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, first in Swat in the spring and then in South Waziristan in the fall. Nazir and the Waziris facilitated the offensive by helping to force Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan out of the Mehsud areas into North Waziristan. Nazir and the Waziris, along with some elements of the Mehsuds, agreed to allow the Pakistani army go after Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan in exchange for guarantees that Islamabad would not interfere with their activities.

Over the past three years, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan have been kept out of South Waziristan because of the Pakistani troops in the Mehsud areas and the state's arrangement with the Waziris. The result was that Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan was weakened to the point that it has been able to resume large-scale attacks only in recent months, and those attacks remain largely confined to the Pashtun areas in the northwest.

Nazir's death has created a vacuum, which Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan could exploit to get back into South Waziristan. This could involve Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan returning to the area, as well as Nazir's group, or at least significant elements of it, joining with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan.

Some Taliban forces that have not been involved in the fight against Islamabad may see the killing of Nazir as the Pakistani state selling out its erstwhile allies as part of the negotiations with the United States about Afghanistan's future after the NATO forces withdraw. Pakistan has greatly improved its working relationship with the United States since a U.S. attack that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers in 2011 that strained ties, and the pace of negotiations involving Islamabad, Kabul and Washington has increased. This closer Pakistani-U.S. cooperation coupled with the loss of their leader and vulnerability to attacks by both the United States and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan could encourage Nazir's followers to align with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, especially since the balance of power in South Waziristan has been thrown off.

It is unclear whether the United States acted unilaterally in this alleged attack, if there was a mistake in targeting or if elements in the Pakistani state approved Nazir's elimination -- though the latter is the least likely scenario since Nazir was instrumental in helping Islamabad control the hostile Taliban factions. Regardless of how and why Nazir was killed, Pakistan's policy of dividing the Taliban factions and pitting them against each other will backfire, especially if this type of targeting continues.

It would be even more problematic for Pakistan if Hafiz Gul Bahadur turns against Islamabad. Bahadur is the key warlord of the Waziri tribe's Uthmanzai branch and is based in North Waziristan. With a bigger militia than Nazir, Bahadur must be wondering if he is next on the target list. Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan is already operating out of certain areas in North Waziristan, and if Bahadur allied with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, it could greatly augment the insurgency in Pakistan.

Under the current circumstances, Pakistan has avoided going into North Waziristan for several reasons: it lacks the necessary military capabilities; it has a working agreement with Bahadur in North Waziristan; and the Haqqani wing of the Afghan Taliban has a key sanctuary in the agency. Pakistan's goal has been to contain the Taliban rebellion by isolating Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan from non-hostile Taliban factions and hopefully incorporate those factions in the settlement with the United States and Afghan Taliban to help control Afghanistan after the NATO withdrawal.

The Pakistanis hope such an agreement will create the conditions necessary to contain the insurgency in Pakistan by making deals with pragmatic elements within Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan that are interested in reconciliation and are willing to disassociate from the more hard-line elements that subscribe to al Qaeda's worldview. In recent weeks, there have been several reports and statements from both Pakistani officials and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan leaders about negotiations and their respective conditions for such talks.

The killing of Nazir has upset the Pakistani strategy and shows a continued disagreement between Islamabad and Washington over which Taliban elements are reconcilable. From the U.S. point of view, there is no certainty that its talks with the representatives of Afghan Taliban founder Mullah Mohammed Omar will lead to a settlement. Therefore, the Obama administration sees it in its interest to weaken the Afghan Taliban and its Pakistani allies as much as possible before the 2014 deadline and gain leverage for negotiations.

More broadly, this incident shows the differences in the strategic interests of the United States and Pakistan regarding Afghanistan. The United States will withdraw ground forces and manage the country through support for the Afghan security forces and unmanned aerial vehicle strikes. Pakistan, however, cannot escape the fact that its western flank is composed of tribal Islamist militants that cannot be militarily defeated. Therefore Pakistan, much more than the United States, needs a settlement with the Afghan Taliban as well as those within its borders.

The growing problems in Pakistan's tribal areas mean that Islamabad will have a hard time realizing a settlement in Afghanistan, and post-NATO Afghanistan could pose serious security risks for Pakistan in the future.
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Read more: Pakistani Taliban Factions Complicate U.S.-Afghan Negotiations | Stratfor

 

[TaimiKhan]

It was a deliberate attack. He was attacked first with suicide bomb, which failed. Thus drones were used.

Americans did it deliberately, reasons are clearly mentioned in the article. Americans can't take the peace between these Taliban & PA, as this alliance weakens TTP and pressure on PA reduces.

And the reaction from our side has been seen with the supposedly US drone attacks on TTP men yesterday. It was not by US/CIA, rather these air strikes were from our side.

 

[KRAIT]

Seems like two birds killed with one stone. Take out leaders that can help in Taliban-PA relations and also those who can direct Taliban against NATO/ creating more doubts in Taliban regarding PA.

 

[TaimiKhan]

Seems like two birds killed with one stone. Take out leaders that can help in Taliban-PA relations and also those who can direct Taliban against NATO/ creating more doubts in Taliban regarding PA.

Problem is, leaders will emerge no matter how many you kill. And their resolve will be the same and they will lead their men against the ANA, NATO/US, but major concern would be what these new leaders will think about their arrangement with PA or what they will do regarding their stance with PA.

 

[fatman17]

Drone Kills Top Taliban Commander Maulvi Nazir


By Reza Jan

January 4, 2013


Maulvi Nazir speaks during a news conference in Wana, South Waziristan in 2007 (Reuters)

A U.S. drone strike in Pakistan’s South Waziristan agency killed senior Taliban commander Maulvi Nazir on January 2, 2013. Nazir’s death is significant and represents the biggest shake up of the Pakistani Taliban’s leadership in years. His death may also negatively affect Pakistan’s war against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the principal enemy of the state.

Killed on the Third Try
According to some reports, Maulvi Nazir was driving on the night of January 2 from Birmal village in South Waziristan agency to Wana, the agency headquarters, when his vehicle developed a fault.[1] Nazir was changing vehicles in Sara Kanda when a U.S. drone struck his vehicle, killing him and between five and nine of his companions.[2] Nazir’s deputy, Rata Khan was also killed in the strike, as were two other deputies, Attaullah and Rafey Khan, according to one report.[3] Differing accounts claim Nazir was killed in a strike on a house in Angoor Adda, a town straddling the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.[4]

News of Nazir’s death was spread over mosque megaphones in Wana, and the main Wana bazaar was shut down. Nazir was buried on January 3 in the nearby town of Azam Warsak where as many as 10,000 people reportedly attended his funeral.[5]

Nazir had previously survived two other drone strikes, one in January 2008 in which he was wounded and one in October 2011 in which his younger brother and a deputy were killed. Nazir was also wounded in a suicide bombing on November 29, 2012 in an attack believed to have been planned by Hakimullah Mehsud’s TTP.[6]

Implications for the U.S. and Pakistan
Nazir’s death is a victory for the U.S. As one of the most powerful Taliban commanders in South Waziristan, he was responsible for sending fighters and resources to combat coalition forces in neighboring Afghanistan.[7] Nazir also reportedly facilitated the infiltration of a large number of “Punjabi” Taliban—Taliban of Pakistani origin—into Afghanistan in 2009-10.[8] Nazir considered himself loyal to Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar and was closely allied with the Haqqani Network.[9] He also described himself publicly as a part of the al Qaeda network and expressed adherence with its ideology.[10] In a May 2011 interview, Nazir openly supported then-leader of al Qaeda Osama bin Laden and rejected accusations that he was opposed to the group. Nazir said “Al-Qaeda and the Taliban are one and the same. At an operational level we might have different strategies, but at the policy level we are one and the same.”[11] Pentagon spokesman George Little described Nazir’s death as a “major development,” saying Nazir had “a great deal of blood on his hands.”[12] One U.S. official said “Nazir and his men were directly involved in planning and executing cross-border attacks against U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan and in providing protection for Al Qaeda fighters in South Waziristan,” and that “the death of Nazir, along with some of his deputies, could push his network into disarray, degrading Al Qaeda’s access to South Waziristan as a result.”[13]

Nazir’s death is a more complicated matter for the Pakistani state, however. While Nazir was a Taliban commander and allied with elements opposed to the state, he had maintained a peace accord with the Pakistani government since 2007 and was a putative ally in the region.[14] Nazir focused his attacks on coalition forces in Afghanistan rather than the Pakistani state and maintained relative peace in areas under his influence in South Waziristan. In 2007, Nazir fought a tribal war and helped the Pakistani government expel ruthless and deeply unpopular Uzbek militants from Wazir tribal areas in South Waziristan.[15] He looked the other way and allowed Pakistani military troops to travel through and operate out of areas under his control during the execution of a large scale military operation against the TTP in October 2009. Nazir continued to permit the presence of thousands of Pakistani soldiers in South Waziristan to the present.

The alliance with Nazir was a double-edged sword for the Pakistani government and, in some ways, his death may be convenient for Islamabad. As the war in Afghanistan draws to a close and coalition forces withdraw by 2014, Nazir would likely not surrender his “local jihadist fief” willingly.[16] His near-total control in Waziri South Waziristan and his links to fighters who would possibly reorient their efforts against Pakistan following the cessation of major fighting in Afghanistan would pose a long-term problem for the state. One Pakistani official said his government would not object to Nazir’s removal from the battlefield because, despite cooperating with the government, he had “aided groups who attack Pakistani troops.”[17]

That said, many in the Pakistani government and military are likely to lament Nazir’s death for the negative impact it may have on their fight against the TTP.[18] Future complications aside, Nazir was an ally who helped the army put pressure on the TTP in South Waziristan. Following a suicide bomb attack on Nazir in November 2012, Nazir ordered all TTP members to leave Wana and Wazir tribal areas in South Waziristan.[19] Nazir fought to keep non-Arab foreign militants out of the region and was also allied with Hafiz Gul Bahadur, the most powerful Pakistani Taliban leader in North Waziristan who is also friendly with the Pakistani state.[20] Both leaders focused their attacks on Afghanistan rather than against the Pakistani state.

Stirring the Militant Pot
Nazir’s authority and stature in his organization was unquestioned, so his death is likely to cause significant upheaval amongst his Waziri Taliban faction in South Waziristan. The death of up to three of his deputies in the same strike will likely make the succession process harder. While his group was reportedly quick to nominate Bahawal Khan, a close aide of Nazir’s, as his successor, Bahawal is a relatively unknown entity and will struggle to fill Nazir’s unique position in the militant landscape.[21] A militant known as Taj Wazir was named the group’s new deputy chief to replace Rata Khan.[22] The severe upheaval of the group’s leadership may take some of the pressure off of the TTP, provide it with opportunities to strengthen itself vis-à-vis Nazir’s Taliban faction and allow it to bolster and expand its presence back into parts of South Waziristan previously dominated by Nazir.

Nazir’s death may also result in an increase in attacks on Pakistani troops stationed in South Waziristan, both from TTP militants as well as from Nazir supporters who might blame the Pakistani military for his death.[23] Taliban militants in Pakistan believe U.S. drone strikes are only able to take place with the complicity, approval and sometimes cooperation of Pakistan’s military and intelligence services. Suspicion that the strike on Nazir took place with Pakistani approval may prompt Nazir’s fighters to launch retaliatory attacks on the Pakistani state.[24]

The strike may also cause Hafiz Gul Bahadur in North Waziristan, with whom the Pakistani government has a nearly identical peace deal to the one it maintained with Nazir, to question his own safety and the status of his relationship with the state. While the strike on Nazir is likely to make all factions in question more distrusting in general, it may have the unfortunate effect of bringing Bahadur’s, Nazir’s and Hakimullah Mehsud’s Taliban factions closer together in mutual opposition to the Pakistani state.



[1] “Pakistan militant Mullah Nazir ‘killed in drone attack,’” BBC, January 3, 2013. Available at BBC News - Pakistan militant Mullah Nazir killed 'in drone attack'
[2] “Pakistan militant Mullah Nazir ‘killed in drone attack,’” BBC, January 3, 2013. Available at BBC News - Pakistan militant Mullah Nazir killed 'in drone attack'
Zahir Shah Sherazi, “Mullah Nazir killed in South Waziristan drone strike: sources,” Dawn, January 3, 2013. Available at Mullah Nazir killed in South Waziristan drone strike: officials | Pakistan | DAWN.COM
[3] Zahir Shah Sherazi, “Mullah Nazir killed in South Waziristan drone strike: sources,” Dawn, January 3, 2013. Available at Mullah Nazir killed in South Waziristan drone strike: officials | Pakistan | DAWN.COM
“US drone strike kills Mullah Nazir: Sources,” Reuters, January 3, 2013. Available at US drone strike kills Mullah Nazir: Sources – The Express Tribune
[4] Alex Rodriguez, “U.S. drone strike in northwest Pakistan kills top Taliban commander,” LA Times, January 3, 2013. Available at U.S. drone strike in northwest Pakistan kills top Taliban commander - latimes.com
[5] Rasool Dawar and Ishtiaq Masood, “Pakistan: US drones kills 13, including commander,” AP, January 3, 2013. Available at U.S. drone strike in northwest Pakistan kills top Taliban commander - latimes.com
Zahir Shah Sherazi, “Mullah Nazir killed in South Waziristan drone strike: sources,” Dawn, January 3, 2013. Available at Mullah Nazir killed in South Waziristan drone strike: officials | Pakistan | DAWN.COM
[6] “Mullah Nazir was in favor of fighting in Afghanistan[translated],” BBC Urdu, January 3, 2013. Available at ????????? - ?BBC Urdu? - ????? ???? ????????? ??? ???? ?? ????? ???? ???‘?
“Drone strike in Waziristan, Mullah Nazir and nine dead [translated],” BBC Urdu, January 2013. Available at ????????? - ?BBC Urdu? - ????????? ??? ???? ????? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?????
Shaiq Hussain and Haq Nawaz Khan, “Local Pakistani officials: U.S. drone strike kills at least 6, including militant commander,” Washington Post, January 3, 2013. Available at - The Washington Post
[7] Salman Masood and Ismail Khan, “Drone Kills a Pakistani Militant Behind Attacks on U.S. Forces,” New York Times, January 3, 2013. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/04/w...istani-militant.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0
[8] “Pakistan militant Mullah Nazir ‘killed in drone attack,’” BBC, January 3, 2013. Available at BBC News - Pakistan militant Mullah Nazir killed 'in drone attack'
[9] “Obituary: Mullah Nazir,” BBC, January 3, 2013. Available at “Pakistan militant Mullah Nazir ‘killed in drone attack,’” BBC, January 3, 2013. Available at BBC News - Obituary: Mullah Nazir
[10] “Obituary: Mullah Nazir,” BBC, January 3, 2013. Available at “Pakistan militant Mullah Nazir ‘killed in drone attack,’” BBC, January 3, 2013. Available at BBC News - Obituary: Mullah Nazir
Syed Saleem Shahzad, “Taliban and al-Qaeda: Friends in arms,” Asia Times Online, May 5, 2011. Available at Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan
[11] Syed Saleem Shahzad, “Taliban and al-Qaeda: Friends in arms,” Asia Times Online, May 5, 2011. Available at Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan
[12] Rebecca Santana and Ishtiaq Ahmed, “US drones kill senior Taliban figure in Pakistan,” AP, January 3, 2013. Available at US drones kill senior Taliban figure in Pakistan - Yahoo! News
[13] Salman Masood and Ismail Khan, “Drone Kills a Pakistani Militant Behind Attacks on U.S. Forces,” New York Times, January 3, 2013. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/04/w...istani-militant.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0
[14] “Pakistan militant Mullah Nazir ‘killed in drone attack,’” BBC, January 3, 2013. Available at BBC News - Pakistan militant Mullah Nazir killed 'in drone attack'
“Obituary: Mullah Nazir,” BBC, January 3, 2013. Available at “Pakistan militant Mullah Nazir ‘killed in drone attack,’” BBC, January 3, 2013. Available at BBC News - Obituary: Mullah Nazir
[15] “Pakistan militant Mullah Nazir ‘killed in drone attack,’” BBC, January 3, 2013. Available at BBC News - Pakistan militant Mullah Nazir killed 'in drone attack'
[16] Salman Masood and Ismail Khan, “Drone Kills a Pakistani Militant Behind Attacks on U.S. Forces,” New York Times, January 3, 2013. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/04/w...istani-militant.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0
[17] Rebecca Santana and Ishtiaq Ahmed, “US drones kill senior Taliban figure in Pakistan,” AP, January 3, 2013. Available at US drones kill senior Taliban figure in Pakistan - Yahoo! News
[18] Salman Masood and Ismail Khan, “Drone Kills a Pakistani Militant Behind Attacks on U.S. Forces,” New York Times, January 3, 2013. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/04/w...istani-militant.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0
[19] Ibid.
[20] Salman Masood and Ismail Khan, “Drone Kills a Pakistani Militant Behind Attacks on U.S. Forces,” New York Times, January 3, 2013. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/04/w...istani-militant.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0
“Pakistan militant Mullah Nazir ‘killed in drone attack,’” BBC, January 3, 2013. Available at BBC News - Pakistan militant Mullah Nazir killed 'in drone attack'
[21] Zahir Shah Sherazi, “Mullah Nazir killed in South Waziristan drone strike: sources,” Dawn, January 3, 2013. Available at Mullah Nazir killed in South Waziristan drone strike: officials | Pakistan | DAWN.COM
[22] Ibid.
[23] Salman Masood and Ismail Khan, “Drone Kills a Pakistani Militant Behind Attacks on U.S. Forces,” New York Times, January 3, 2013. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/04/w...istani-militant.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0
[24] Ibid.