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Pakistan reports massive current account surplus of $654mn in March

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Pakistan’s current account posted a massive surplus of $654 million in March 2023 against a (revised) deficit of $36 million in February 2023, reported the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Wednesday.

“Cumulatively, the current account deficit reduced to $3.4 billion in July-March FY23 against a deficit of $13 billion in July-March FY22,” the SBP said in a statement.

This is the first surplus on a monthly basis since November 2020 when the pandemic had brought the global economy to a standstill.

The surplus for March is also in stark comparison to the (revised) deficit for the same month of the previous year when it stood at nearly a billion dollars.

“On a YoY basis, the primary reason behind the surplus was a 36% decline in total imports. However, total exports and remittances also decreased by 20% and 11%, respectively,” said brokerage house Arif Habib in a note.

Pak-Kuwait Investment Company’s Head of Research Samiullah Tariq told Business Recorder that the major reason behind the surplus was a sharp decline in imports.

“Some of the drop was witnessed due to the import restrictions placed by the government while the remaining came due to natural causes,” he said. “On the flipside, remittances and exports fell on a yearly basis.”

Ismail Iqbal Securities Head of Research Fahad Rauf told Business Recorder that the surplus was well in line with market expectations.

“We were expecting it because remittances rose by $500 million in March on year-on-year basis while trade remained restricted,” he said. “The issues with opening letters of credit (LCs) persists and this has capped imports.”

Moreover, there are also restrictions on making foreign payments and companies are unable to repatriate their profits as well which resulted in the surplus, he added.

“In the long run, the surplus is unsustainable because if Pakistan opens its economy, imports will rise and the deficit will return,” he said. “We are an import-oriented nation.”

“To maintain the surplus, we will have to keep the economy choked,” he said.

The current account balance is a key figure for Pakistan’s economy that is battling low level of foreign exchange reserves at the moment. Islamabad is currently engaged in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for revival of its stalled bailout programme, and moving to secure additional funding to convince the lender that its balance of payments’ position is fully financed.

In this backdrop, a current account surplus is being seen as a positive development.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar took to Twitter to share the latest figure.

Import and export figures

Export of goods during March 2023 stood at $2.43 billion, while export of services stood at $615 million. Import of goods stood at $3.99 billion, while services amounted to $647 million.

Similarly, for the nine-month period of the ongoing fiscal year, export of goods stood at $21.1 billion, while export of services amount to $5.53 billion. Import of goods were clocked in at $41.5 billion, while services amounted to $5.76 billion, showed SBP data.
 
f0FOACgI

Pakistan’s current account posted a massive surplus of $654 million in March 2023 against a (revised) deficit of $36 million in February 2023, reported the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Wednesday.

“Cumulatively, the current account deficit reduced to $3.4 billion in July-March FY23 against a deficit of $13 billion in July-March FY22,” the SBP said in a statement.

This is the first surplus on a monthly basis since November 2020 when the pandemic had brought the global economy to a standstill.

The surplus for March is also in stark comparison to the (revised) deficit for the same month of the previous year when it stood at nearly a billion dollars.

“On a YoY basis, the primary reason behind the surplus was a 36% decline in total imports. However, total exports and remittances also decreased by 20% and 11%, respectively,” said brokerage house Arif Habib in a note.

Pak-Kuwait Investment Company’s Head of Research Samiullah Tariq told Business Recorder that the major reason behind the surplus was a sharp decline in imports.

“Some of the drop was witnessed due to the import restrictions placed by the government while the remaining came due to natural causes,” he said. “On the flipside, remittances and exports fell on a yearly basis.”

Ismail Iqbal Securities Head of Research Fahad Rauf told Business Recorder that the surplus was well in line with market expectations.

“We were expecting it because remittances rose by $500 million in March on year-on-year basis while trade remained restricted,” he said. “The issues with opening letters of credit (LCs) persists and this has capped imports.”

Moreover, there are also restrictions on making foreign payments and companies are unable to repatriate their profits as well which resulted in the surplus, he added.

“In the long run, the surplus is unsustainable because if Pakistan opens its economy, imports will rise and the deficit will return,” he said. “We are an import-oriented nation.”

“To maintain the surplus, we will have to keep the economy choked,” he said.

The current account balance is a key figure for Pakistan’s economy that is battling low level of foreign exchange reserves at the moment. Islamabad is currently engaged in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for revival of its stalled bailout programme, and moving to secure additional funding to convince the lender that its balance of payments’ position is fully financed.

In this backdrop, a current account surplus is being seen as a positive development.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar took to Twitter to share the latest figure.

Import and export figures

Export of goods during March 2023 stood at $2.43 billion, while export of services stood at $615 million. Import of goods stood at $3.99 billion, while services amounted to $647 million.

Similarly, for the nine-month period of the ongoing fiscal year, export of goods stood at $21.1 billion, while export of services amount to $5.53 billion. Import of goods were clocked in at $41.5 billion, while services amounted to $5.76 billion, showed SBP data.
Import substitution is the need of the hour. Can't outmanuver out of that one.

Its good news that its a surplus but the current economic state is unsustainable. To get out GoP needs more resources, even more so to comfortably avoid such reoccurences. As debt servicing eats away at national resources there is a risk of falling deeper into the debt trap. Debt restructuring would be your best bet, liberalise the economy, the pain is being felt anyways, might as well bite the bullet for the long term gain and stability.

In the short term Karachi port needs to be expanded and modernized to increase efficiency and decrease delays. Its being over utilised anyways, additional funds would see infusion of jobs and improved export capabilities. Gwadar will take time to come online, till then it would have to be funded by the tax payer. To increase synergies, your geographic position also acts as a helpfull bonus.

The north south orientation of Pakistans populace means fewer lines with high capacity capability will be sufficient. Makes it easier to place industry and GoP can tap into her lower labour costs and pair it with optimised logistical network. Every cent saved would count and help GoP be a bit more competitive in the global market.
 
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f0FOACgI

Pakistan’s current account posted a massive surplus of $654 million in March 2023 against a (revised) deficit of $36 million in February 2023, reported the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Wednesday.

“Cumulatively, the current account deficit reduced to $3.4 billion in July-March FY23 against a deficit of $13 billion in July-March FY22,” the SBP said in a statement.

This is the first surplus on a monthly basis since November 2020 when the pandemic had brought the global economy to a standstill.

The surplus for March is also in stark comparison to the (revised) deficit for the same month of the previous year when it stood at nearly a billion dollars.

“On a YoY basis, the primary reason behind the surplus was a 36% decline in total imports. However, total exports and remittances also decreased by 20% and 11%, respectively,” said brokerage house Arif Habib in a note.

Pak-Kuwait Investment Company’s Head of Research Samiullah Tariq told Business Recorder that the major reason behind the surplus was a sharp decline in imports.

“Some of the drop was witnessed due to the import restrictions placed by the government while the remaining came due to natural causes,” he said. “On the flipside, remittances and exports fell on a yearly basis.”

Ismail Iqbal Securities Head of Research Fahad Rauf told Business Recorder that the surplus was well in line with market expectations.

“We were expecting it because remittances rose by $500 million in March on year-on-year basis while trade remained restricted,” he said. “The issues with opening letters of credit (LCs) persists and this has capped imports.”

Moreover, there are also restrictions on making foreign payments and companies are unable to repatriate their profits as well which resulted in the surplus, he added.

“In the long run, the surplus is unsustainable because if Pakistan opens its economy, imports will rise and the deficit will return,” he said. “We are an import-oriented nation.”

“To maintain the surplus, we will have to keep the economy choked,” he said.

The current account balance is a key figure for Pakistan’s economy that is battling low level of foreign exchange reserves at the moment. Islamabad is currently engaged in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for revival of its stalled bailout programme, and moving to secure additional funding to convince the lender that its balance of payments’ position is fully financed.

In this backdrop, a current account surplus is being seen as a positive development.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar took to Twitter to share the latest figure.

Import and export figures

Export of goods during March 2023 stood at $2.43 billion, while export of services stood at $615 million. Import of goods stood at $3.99 billion, while services amounted to $647 million.

Similarly, for the nine-month period of the ongoing fiscal year, export of goods stood at $21.1 billion, while export of services amount to $5.53 billion. Import of goods were clocked in at $41.5 billion, while services amounted to $5.76 billion, showed SBP data.
Talk about a silver lining. :lol:
 
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“On a YoY basis, the primary reason behind the surplus was a 36% decline in total imports. However, total exports and remittances also decreased by 20% and 11%, respectively,” said brokerage house Arif Habib in a note.

Pak-Kuwait Investment Company’s Head of Research Samiullah Tariq told Business Recorder that the major reason behind the surplus was a sharp decline in imports.

“Some of the drop was witnessed due to the import restrictions placed by the government while the remaining came due to natural causes,” he said. “On the flipside, remittances and exports fell on a yearly basis.”

Moreover, there are also restrictions on making foreign payments and companies are unable to repatriate their profits as well which resulted in the surplus, he added.

“In the long run, the surplus is unsustainable because if Pakistan opens its economy, imports will rise and the deficit will return,” he said. “We are an import-oriented nation.”

“To maintain the surplus, we will have to keep the economy choked,” he said.

Koi khushi ki baat nhn hai yeh.

Just read yesterday that the Chinese company in partnership with SECMC is reducig output by half, and then to zero by the end of the month because it isn't being allowed to export profits in USD.
 
f0FOACgI

Pakistan’s current account posted a massive surplus of $654 million in March 2023 against a (revised) deficit of $36 million in February 2023, reported the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Wednesday.

“Cumulatively, the current account deficit reduced to $3.4 billion in July-March FY23 against a deficit of $13 billion in July-March FY22,” the SBP said in a statement.

This is the first surplus on a monthly basis since November 2020 when the pandemic had brought the global economy to a standstill.

The surplus for March is also in stark comparison to the (revised) deficit for the same month of the previous year when it stood at nearly a billion dollars.

“On a YoY basis, the primary reason behind the surplus was a 36% decline in total imports. However, total exports and remittances also decreased by 20% and 11%, respectively,” said brokerage house Arif Habib in a note.

Pak-Kuwait Investment Company’s Head of Research Samiullah Tariq told Business Recorder that the major reason behind the surplus was a sharp decline in imports.

“Some of the drop was witnessed due to the import restrictions placed by the government while the remaining came due to natural causes,” he said. “On the flipside, remittances and exports fell on a yearly basis.”

Ismail Iqbal Securities Head of Research Fahad Rauf told Business Recorder that the surplus was well in line with market expectations.

“We were expecting it because remittances rose by $500 million in March on year-on-year basis while trade remained restricted,” he said. “The issues with opening letters of credit (LCs) persists and this has capped imports.”

Moreover, there are also restrictions on making foreign payments and companies are unable to repatriate their profits as well which resulted in the surplus, he added.

“In the long run, the surplus is unsustainable because if Pakistan opens its economy, imports will rise and the deficit will return,” he said. “We are an import-oriented nation.”

“To maintain the surplus, we will have to keep the economy choked,” he said.

The current account balance is a key figure for Pakistan’s economy that is battling low level of foreign exchange reserves at the moment. Islamabad is currently engaged in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for revival of its stalled bailout programme, and moving to secure additional funding to convince the lender that its balance of payments’ position is fully financed.

In this backdrop, a current account surplus is being seen as a positive development.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar took to Twitter to share the latest figure.

Import and export figures

Export of goods during March 2023 stood at $2.43 billion, while export of services stood at $615 million. Import of goods stood at $3.99 billion, while services amounted to $647 million.

Similarly, for the nine-month period of the ongoing fiscal year, export of goods stood at $21.1 billion, while export of services amount to $5.53 billion. Import of goods were clocked in at $41.5 billion, while services amounted to $5.76 billion, showed SBP data.
Afghanistan, srilanka, Lebanon and Zimbabwe also have surplus since no one is ready to give them debt just like us

With falling remittances and exports what's the point of surplus???

Would have been incredible news with increasing exports and remittances

Regardless if people are happy with it why am I here to complain

It's works best for me if pakistan remains poor..as I will be relatively rich in such an environment..
 
@Kryptonite said: "To increase synergies, your geographic position also acts as a helpfull bonus. The north south orientation of Pakistans populace means fewer lines with high capacity capability will be sufficient."

True. And that is why I always maintain that if Pakistan has a capable administration, it is much easier country to transform than India.

Regards
 
Its like celebrating weight loss of a terminally ill patient …
What a good analogy.

This is on the back of import decline which has crippled Pakistan's manufacturing, as well as increased taxation on basic necessities which the common people can no longer afford.
 
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Import substitution is the need of the hour. Can't outmanuver out of that one.

Its good news that its a surplus but the current economic state is unsustainable. To get out GoP needs more resources, even more so to comfortably avoid such reoccurences. As debt servicing eats away at national resources there is a risk of falling deeper into the debt trap. Debt restructuring would be your best bet, liberalise the economy, the pain is being felt anyways, might as well bite the bullet for the long term gain and stability.

In the short term Karachi port needs to be expanded and modernized to increase efficiency and decrease delays. Its being over utilised anyways, additional funds would see infusion of jobs and improved export capabilities. Gwadar will take time to come online, till then it would have to be funded by the tax payer. To increase synergies, your geographic position also acts as a helpfull bonus.

The north south orientation of Pakistans populace means fewer lines with high capacity capability will be sufficient. Makes it easier to place industry and GoP can tap into her lower labour costs and pair it with optimised logistical network. Every cent saved would count and help GoP be a bit more competitive in the global market.

Yes.
And often 'Words of Wisdom' come from those who are 'enemies'. We all often run the risk of babbling in our echo-chambers.
And you are right: Pakistan has a great advantage of most of the population living along a narrow corridor of Indus River.
 
This government has literally choked economic growth. Maintaining a surplus in such circumstances is hardly impressive. In fact it's the opposite and the IMF certainly won't be buying into this as some sort of economic miracle by Dar. Anybody with a basic sense of economics knows that "Daronomics" is pure hocum and nonsense, an accountant trying to fool the nation and the IMF into believing he is something more than a clown.

“In the long run, the surplus is unsustainable because if Pakistan opens its economy, imports will rise and the deficit will return,” he said. “We are an import-oriented nation.”

“To maintain the surplus, we will have to keep the economy choked,” he said."

 

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