They won't ever be obselete. Nuclear warheads can and will develop countermeasures. Russia has already made some.
Bro,
You think ABM systems will not catch up to those countermeasures?
Say hello to MOKV concept for ABM:
Details here:
http://www.militaryaerospace.com/ar...defense-to-kill-several-warheads-at-once.html
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Just a year back, GMD was capable of intercepting an ICBM-class threat [only in] theory. Relevant test occurred in this year and results are promising.
GMD not only intercepted an ICBM-class threat but also defeated its countermeasures in the same test but few are aware of the latter aspect of it. Details are understandably scarce in regards to how GMD defeated such countermeasures.
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Arms race is a non-stop and relentless theme. Weapons that have value in our times, are likely to be obsolete at some point in the future.
Pakistan needs to invest heavily in its Industrial programs and the R&D aspect of education in order to prepare a human capital that is capable of understanding emerging threats or risk loosing its MAD with India and others.
Yeah. Don't believe a single thing anyone says about Missile defenses. They are nowhere near as effective as claimed. The Americans claimed in 1991, that the Patriot was 96% effective; turns out it was failed to intercept any. Ditto 2003.
This mentality will prove to be a fatal mistake one day. We are not living in 1990s and American ABM systems have become far more capable in subsequent years.
You need to read and learn:
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...fear-the-patriot-missile-defense-system-19833
The PAC systems that were deployed in 1990 were primitive designs in regards to intercepting ballistic missiles. While they failed to intercept scores of ballistic missiles - they did intercept a few (7 in total) - the [experience] provided valuable insight for course-correction in regards to intercepting ballistic missiles in the future.
Technical information here:
https://missilethreat.csis.org/system/patriot/
The existing PAC-3 systems have 100% target intercept record in the battlefield (including ballistic missiles).
The THAAD has never shot down a missile in a realistic full up test. Nor has the Arrow. And the claimed pK's are laughable. We have not bothered with them, since we know they are crock.
So what kind of tests would be realistic in your eyes?
US is much ahead of Pakistan in developing ballistic missiles (of all sorts) and use them for target-practice. They have released footage of intercepts made by THAAD in live-fire conditions.
Here is an example of THAAD intercepting an IRBM-class target in live-fire conditions:
