Pakistan in 2016: Economy, Security & Relations With India, US

[RiazHaq]

http://www.riazhaq.com/2017/01/pakistan-in-2016-economy-security.html

How was the year 2016 for Pakistan? What can Pakistan expect in 2017?

Did Pakistan’s internal security improve in 2016? If do, how? And by how much? How was it done? By Zarb e Azb military operation? Did Pakistan implement the National Action Plan to address extremism and radicalization in society?


Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal

How did Pakistan’s economy do? And how did the stock market do? Did improved security help? Did China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) investments help boost investor confidence in the country?


Source: Bloomberg



What caused deterioration in India-Pakistan ties? Was it the murder of Burhan Wani and India’s attempt to blame it on “cross-border terrorism” from Pakistan? Did Indian PM Modi succeed in isolating Pakistan?

How will Obama’s exit and Trump’s presidency affect US-Pakistan relations? Will these be as bad as under Obama? Or better? Or worse under Trump? How will Pakistan’s close ties with China and warming relations with Russia play into this?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with panelists Misbah Azam and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan KSE100 Stock Index Among World's Top Performers

Obama's Parting Shot: New Sanctions on Pakistan NESCOM

700,000 Indian Soldiers vs 10 Million Kashmiris

Is Modi Succeeding in Isolating Pakistan?

China Pakistan Economic Corridor: 2 Million New Jobs

Impact of Trump Appointments on US Policy

Pakistan-China-Russia vs India-US-Japan


http://www.riazhaq.com/2017/01/pakistan-in-2016-economy-security.html

 

[wiseone2]

it looks like someone's blog is floundering

 

[monitor]

Last two year civilian death reduced to one third ,terrorist killed also reduced to one third compare to 2014 in 2016 .which means number of terrorist /insurgent hide inside Pakistan either killed or fled country. It seems Pakistan army have successful destroying terrorism.

 

[SMC]

^^ Between 2013 and 2016 it's down to one fifth of what it used to be in 2013. It's a major achievement for a country to do this in such a short time but Pakistan needs to keep going after these guys and don't give them any break. More importantly, the extremist centers in Punjab need to be raided and closed down.

The host in that discussion was incredibly annoying. He kept cutting the other guy off and wasn't letting anyone finish what they wanted to say.

 

[That Guy]

it looks like someone's blog is floundering

Address his points, instead of being condescending.

 

[RiazHaq]

Trump's national security advisor Gen Michael Flynn has said the rise of Islamic State was “a willful decision” and defends accuracy of US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) 2012 Memo:


In Al Jazeera’s latest Head to Head episode, former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Michael Flynn confirms to Mehdi Hasan that not only had he studied the DIA memo predicting the West’s backing of an Islamic State in Syria when it came across his desk in 2012, but even asserts that the White House’s sponsoring of radical jihadists (that would emerge as ISIL and Nusra) against the Syrian regime was “a willful decision.”

-------

While holding up a paper copy of the 2012 DIA report declassified through FOIA, Hasan reads aloud key passages such as, “there is the possibility of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist principality in Eastern Syria, and this is exactly what the supporting powers to the opposition want, in order to isolate the Syrian regime.”
Rather than downplay the importance of the document and these startling passages, as did the State Department soon after its release, Flynn does the opposite: he confirms that while acting DIA chief he “paid very close attention” to this report in particular and later adds that “the intelligence was very clear.”
Lt. Gen. Flynn, speaking safely from retirement, is the highest ranking intelligence official to go on record saying the United States and other state sponsors of rebels in Syria knowingly gave political backing and shipped weapons to Al-Qaeda in order to put pressure on the Syrian regime:

(Aljazeera's Mehdi) Hasan: In 2012 the U.S. was helping coordinate arms transfers to those same groups [Salafists, Muslim Brotherhood, Al Qaeda in Iraq], why did you not stop that if you’re worried about the rise of quote-unquote Islamic extremists?
Flynn: I hate to say it’s not my job…but that…my job was to…was to to ensure that the accuracy of our intelligence that was being presented was as good as it could be.
The early reporting that treated the DIA memo as newsworthy and hugely revelatory was criticized and even mocked by some experts, as well as outlets like The Daily Beast. Yet the very DIA director at the time the memo was drafted and circulated widely now unambiguously confirms the document to be of high value, and indicates that it served as source material in his own discussions over Syria policy with the White House.
As Michael Flynn also previously served as director of intelligence for Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) during a time when its prime global mission was dismantling Al-Qaeda, his honest admission that the White House was in fact arming and bolstering Al-Qaeda linked groups in Syria is especially shocking given his stature.

https://levantreport.com/2015/08/06...l-decision-and-defends-accuracy-of-2012-memo/

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/headtohead/2015/07/blame-isil-150728080342288.html

 

[RiazHaq]

With 14% CAGR, #Pakistan #MSCI index beats #India's 8.39% CAGR in stock returns since Year 2000 http://ecoti.in/IfRrHb via @economictimes
Pakistan's stock market has outperformed the Indian equity market with a huge gap since the beginning of the new century.

Over the past 16 years, the MSCI Pakistan index climbed over 14 per cent in dollar terms on a compounded annual growth (CAGR) basis, while the MSCI India index has advanced 8.39 per cent annually during the same period, data available with Bloomberg showed

The KSE100 index of the Karachi Stock Exchange rallied 2,625 per cent from 1,772 in January 2000 to around 48,300 in December 2016, while the Sensex of the BSE advanced 431 per cent in this period.

KSE100 tracks the performance of biggest companies by market capitalisation from each sector of the Pakistani economy listed on bourses.

On the hand, the 30-share Sensex jumped from 5,005 in December 1999 to 26,626 on December 30, 2016.

The macroeconomic conditions of India look strong in terms of gross domestic product (GDP). According to an earlier Economic Times report quoting the Central Intelligence Agency, India's real GDP growth rate was at 7.3 per cent in 2015, ranked 12th globally, compared with Pakistan's 4.2 per cent, ranked 60th.

Both SATP & Numbeo show dramatic decline in terror and crime in Karachi over the last 3 years.

Karachi now ranks 31st among world's most dangerous cities, down from 11 in 2013.

https://www.numbeo.com/crime/rankings.jsp

South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) data on terrorism in Sindh:

Total Terror Deaths in Sindh:

254 in 2016, down from 607 in 2015, 1141 in 2014, 1625 in 2013


Bomb Blasts in Sindh:


12 in 2016, down from 19 in 2015, 62 in 2014, 97 in 2013

Suicide Bombings:

zero in 2016 down from 26 in 2015, 28 in 2014 and 16 in 2013


Sectarian Deaths in Sindh:

25 in 2016, down from 164 in 2015, 86 in 2014 and 122 in 2013.


http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/sindh/datasheet/datasheet.htm

 

[RiazHaq]

78% of #US companies in #Pakistan plan to increase #investment in 2017: survey. #FDI http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/201...n-plan-to-increase-investment-in-2017-survey/ … via @epakistantoday

A perception survey conducted by the American Business Council showed that there was an improvement of over 30% in the law and order situation from 2015-16.

Over 78% of respondents have indicated that they plan to invest in Pakistan over the next 12 months as compared to 65% in 2015 and 83% are optimistic about the long term economic climate.

The members have however separately commented about the government’s tendency to introduce mini budgets as well as sudden changes in policies or rules during the course of a fiscal year. “Such steps negatively impact new as well as existing investments,” the members stated.

The perception survey allowed ABC members to rate their satisfaction on various economic, regulatory and political factors that affect the performance and growth of businesses operating in Pakistan over 2015-16.

The business climate was rated on each of the various factors influencing it, including implementation and consistency of trade and competition policies, government development budget, domestic market, internal and external political climate, and law and order.

For 2015-16, the vast majority of respondents rated the business climate of Pakistan as satisfactory with only 8% giving it a poor rating. This is a marked improvement over 2014-15 when 11% of participants rated the business climate as poor. The overall positive perception of American investors reveals an expectation of some economic stability and an improvement in Pakistan’s economic environment.

The participants were also asked to rate the performance of various ministries directly affecting the business climate. In this regard, the overall trend reflects a slight improvement in the performance of various ministries from last year.

The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resource showed a marked improvement with 78% of participants reporting the performance as fair and 16% reporting it as poor. In 2014-15, 46% rated the performance of this ministry as fair and 51% rated it poorly.

American Business Council of Pakistan President Sami Ahmed said, “Our members are positive and remain committed to Pakistan.” Ahmed added that international standing and perception is extremely important as Pakistan competes with other Asian players to attract foreign capital in the form of trade exports, human resources, and most importantly, direct foreign investment.

The ABC is one of the largest investor groups in Pakistan with 67 members, most of whom represent Fortune 500 companies. They operate in various sectors including healthcare, financial services, information technology, chemicals & fertilizers, energy, FMCG, food & beverage, oil, and others.

ABC members have cumulative revenues of US $4.0 billion. Their contribution to the National Exchequer, through direct/indirect taxes is approximately Rs 102 billion. They exported goods worth Rs 6.60 billion during 2015, and directly employ over 34,000 people, with 140,000 dependents, and indirectly employ approximately 1 million people through their networks of agents, distributors, contractors, etc.

The ABC is affiliated with the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FPCCI) and is a member of the US Chamber of Commerce (USCC), Washington D C and the Asia-Pacific Council of American Chambers of Commerce (APCAC). ABC also has a close working relationship with the US-Pakistan Business Council, Washington, which is a component of the USCC.