Pakistan, China drop 5 CPEC energy projects

[Vishvamitra]

why was it terrible idea?
coal by far is cheapest and integrated with a port is much better than being transported via railways
problem was distribution line, you cant build a plant without distribution set up, which govt refused to fund(required 2B $)


because hydro takes 10 years and coal 36 months
then you require a baseline load generation that hydros might not be able to give you e.g a 4000MW plant will porduce only 1000mW at base load


i still believe that CPEC is Chinese project and nothing to do with nawaz its part of their OBOR initiative which involves investment in Bangladesh, Myanmar and other countries
so why now, its because china just had it muscles flexed now

look at their GDP in 2005(1.7T, less than what india is now) and than now, its a 7x increase to 11t

Are you living in stone age ? Indias GDP is now 2.6 Trillion dollar.

 

[ziaulislam]

Are you living in stone age ? Indias GDP is now 2.6 Trillion dollar.

where india came up in this discussion, do you even understand english?

i was talking about china

 

[Vishvamitra]

where india came up in this discussion, do you even understand english?

i was talking about chinlo

Read last paragraph of your previous post where you compared chinese gdp with India.

Burn is real

 

[ziaulislam]

Read: 6,600MW Gadani power project put on back burner (Dawn)

well as i said, the whole project hinged upon govt financing the transmission line and building coal jetty but govt wanted everything to be done in privates sector a.k.a chinese these days...well it doesnt work that way

otherwise this was a sound project in long run better than building plants all over punjab

Read last paragraph of your previous post where you compared chinese gdp with India.

Burn is real

look at their GDP in 2005(1.7T, less than what india is now) and than now, its a 7x increase to 11t

if you go to school and ask your 8th grade teacher he will inform you that this statement means that Chinese GDP was 1.7 t in 2005 and in comparison these days india has way larger GDP which in turns confers that just a decade ago china was as poor as india, as you know india cannot sponsor 100+ billion dollars projects

so are if you dont agree with this statement than it either mean that you dont understand English or you think that i am wrong and india economy is way less than 1.7t, pick and choose

 

[simple Brain]

because hydro takes 10 years and coal 36 months
then you require a baseline load generation that hydros might not be able to give you e.g a 4000MW plant will porduce only 1000mW at base load

No, I am completely aware of the during of dams constructions. The issue in here is completely opposite of what the article is all about, you might have misunderstood the theme of it and the reason of China's pulling out the investment out of the coal power projects.

 

[Khanate]

well as i said, the whole project hinged upon govt financing the transmission line and building coal jetty but govt wanted everything to be done in privates sector a.k.a chinese these days...well it doesnt work that way

otherwise this was a sound project in long run better than building plants all over punjab

If ifs and buts were rupees, yuans and dollars, we'd all be billionaires. -- Khanate

It isn't limited to transmission lines and marine infrastructure. The project is based entirely on imported coal. The investors are Chinese. This adds pressure on foreign exchange reserves when payments for OEM, suppliers and investors come up. And this is all besides the rising imports, circular-debt, environmental concerns and the climate-change politics.

Worse still, the overall cost of the project is somewhere between $12-$16 billion. At this price, you can build a mega hydroelectric dam (Diamer-Bhasha Dam) with the added benefit of streamlining water management which is another critical area for Pakistan. And you don't need to import coal. Additionally, Chinese investors, CTG, NEA, etc., get to ease pressure on themselves for all the stalled hydroelectric projects in Myanmar. This is wisdom of the markets at display for you.

 

[ziaulislam]

If ifs and buts were rupees, yuans and dollars, we'd all be billionaires. -- Khanate

It isn't limited to transmission lines and marine infrastructure. The project is based entirely on imported coal. The investors are Chinese. This adds pressure on foreign exchange reserves when payments for OEM, suppliers and investors come up. And this is all besides the rising imports, circular-debt, environmental concerns and the climate-change politics.

Worse still, the overall cost of the project is somewhere between $12-$16 billion. At this price, you can build a mega hydroelectric dam (Diamer-Bhasha Dam) with the added benefit of streamlining water management which is another critical area for Pakistan. And you don't need to import coal. Additionally, Chinese investors, CTG, NEA, etc., get to ease pressure on themselves for all the stalled hydroelectric projects in Myanmar. This is wisdom of the markets at display for you.

that is lame point..
1. you do know the very reason i supported this project was that the pressure on foreign reserves would have been way way less had this been completed instead of 4000MW of new LNGs that were started in last 2 years and in addition to that we still produce 20% of power through oil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2.as i said please look at the number of units produced rather than capacity, in other words the 2 karachi nuclear plant with capacity of 2200mw are going to produce around 2200GWhr vs 4400MW producing around 2300GHhr as hydro do not operate high capacity at all time e.g tarbela winter production is 1100mw vs possibility of 6600mw in summer

in summary cancelling the coal projects was not a good option and alternatives are way expensive in long run(LNG/coal far in land /even hydro as we need load capacity) but it had to be done because PMLN was not ready to spend a penny from pocket/sacrifice other developmental projects like metros and wanted 100% private investment which doesnt work, you need to have transmission lines.

 

[Kabira]

why was it terrible idea?
coal by far is cheapest and integrated with a port is much better than being transported via railways
problem was distribution line, you cant build a plant without distribution set up, which govt refused to fund(required 2B $)

I think 6600MW gaddani was terrible idea. For one imported coal? Doesn't make sense. Government wanted to end load shedding quickly and approved some coal plants on imported coal. But 10 more is going too far. If Nawaz can convince CHina to invest heavily in big hydro projects as we go forward then it will be best thing that happened to Pakistan.

Dams will keep coming along as demand increases. While thar will produce electricity from coal. Pakistan need to look carefully at demand and most importantly recovery.

 

[Khanate]

that is lame point..

Then write a $16 billion USD cheque and I'll get the project started.

1. you do know the very reason i supported this project was that the pressure on foreign reserves would have been way way less had this been completed instead of 4000MW of new LNGs that were started in last 2 years and in addition to that we still produce 20% of power through oil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Two wrongs don't make a right. Bad logic.

2.as i said please look at the number of units produced rather than capacity, in other words the 2 karachi nuclear plant with capacity of 2200mw are going to produce around 2200GWhr vs 4400MW producing around 2300GHhr as hydro do not operate high capacity at all time e.g tarbela winter production is 1100mw vs possibility of 6600mw in summer

in summary cancelling the coal projects was not a good option and alternatives are way expensive in long run(LNG/coal far in land /even hydro as we need load capacity) but it had to be done because PMLN was not ready to spend a penny from pocket/sacrifice other developmental projects like metros and wanted 100% private investment which doesnt work, you need to have transmission lines.

Hydro vs Thermal is not subject of this topic. Its investment. If you want to nerd out on base load vs peaking load, go ahead. I'm past that stuff.

Government wanted to end load shedding quickly and approved some coal plants on imported coal.

I didn't want to say that to keep the discussion as apolitical as possible. The reality is PML-N wanted quick-fixes for the next election cycle while ignoring reality,i.e., we lack resources, imports are rising, exports are stagnant, there is already a circular debt problem. Those making the investments will invest based on different indicators (foreign exchange reserves) and BOP (Balance of Payment). Fortunately, markets don't ignore fundamentals.

 

[ziaulislam]

If ifs and buts were rupees, yuans and dollars, we'd all be billionaires. -- Khanate

It isn't limited to transmission lines and marine infrastructure. The project is based entirely on imported coal. The investors are Chinese. This adds pressure on foreign exchange reserves when payments for OEM, suppliers and investors come up. And this is all besides the rising imports, circular-debt, environmental concerns and the climate-change politics.

Worse still, the overall cost of the project is somewhere between $12-$16 billion. At this price, you can build a mega hydroelectric dam (Diamer-Bhasha Dam) with the added benefit of streamlining water management which is another critical area for Pakistan. And you don't need to import coal. Additionally, Chinese investors, CTG, NEA, etc., get to ease pressure on themselves for all the stalled hydroelectric projects in Myanmar. This is wisdom of the markets at display for you.

that is lame point..
1. you do know the very reason i supported this project was that the pressure on foreign reserves would have been way way less had this been completed instead of 4000MW of new LNGs that were started in last 2 years and in addition to that we still produce 20% of power through oil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2.as i said please look at the number of units produced rather than capacity, in other words the 2 karachi nuclear plant with capacity of 2200mw are going to produce around 2200GWhr vs 4400MW producing around 2300GHhr as hydro do not operate high capacity at all time e.g tarbela winter production is 1100mw vs possibility of 6600mw in summer

in summary cancelling the coal projects was not a good option and alternatives are way expensive in long run(LNG/coal far in land /even hydro as we need load capacity) but it had to be done because PMLN was not ready to spend a penny from pocket/sacrifice other developmental projects like metros and wanted 100% private investment which doesnt work, you need to have transmission lines.

Then write a $16 billion USD cheque and I'll get the project started.





Two wrongs don't make a right. Bad logic.





Hydro vs Thermal is not subject of this topic. Its investment. If you want to nerd out on base load vs peaking load, go ahead. I'm past that stuff.




I didn't want to say that to keep the discussion as apolitical as possible. The reality is PML-N wanted quick-fixes for the next election cycle while ignoring reality,i.e., we lack resources and those who are going to make investments will invest based on different indicators (foreign exchange reserves) and BOP (Balance of Payment). Fortunately, markets don't ignore fundamentals.

kindly answer this question
what is the short term solution to load shedding(i.e within 3-4 years) that would ensure 24 hours electric supply(hence solar, wind power out of the question)?

 

[Kabira]

I didn't want to say that to keep the discussion as apolitical as possible. The reality is PML-N wanted quick-fixes for the next election cycle while ignoring reality,i.e., we lack resources, imports are rising, exports are stagnant, there is already a circular debt proble. Those making the investments will invest based on different indicators (foreign exchange reserves) and BOP (Balance of Payment). Fortunately, markets don't ignore fundamentals.

Also after 2020 investment in that coal will keep increasing, plan is to produce 10,000MW from thar. Better then importing coal.

 

[ziaulislam]

I think 6600MW gaddani was terrible idea. For one imported coal? Doesn't make sense. Government wanted to end load shedding quickly and approved some coal plants on imported coal. But 10 more is going too far. If Nawaz can convince CHina to invest heavily in big hydro projects as we go forward then it will be best thing that happened to Pakistan.

Dams will keep coming along as demand increases. While thar will produce electricity from coal. Pakistan need to look carefully at demand and most importantly recovery.

10 meant total supply of 6600MW

we are exactly doing the same but exchanged coal with imported gas which is expensive (haveli B shah, balloki,bhikki have combine capacity of 3600-400MW that will be brought on line from 2016-2018) and moved 2 imported coal plants to punjab which will be expensive due to coal transport and wastage cost though this would help the railways Lol

it seems to be noone is using simple maths but illogical justification of what PML N did

hydro is not short term solution, neither nuclear is, solar and wind do not provide load factor(24hr supply for layman), so only options are gas, oil and coal, coal is cheapest but govt opted for gas, is its most investment friendly(multiple reasons no transmission lines needed, more easy to get funding from donar agencies by private investors), this in my opinoin was a wrong decision which lead to wastage of upfront 1.5 years as gas wasnot possible than and could be headache down the line

 

[Khanate]

what is the short term solution to load shedding(i.e within 3-4 years) that would ensure 24 hours electric supply(hence solar, wind power out of the question)?

Energy usage has a cycle, be it 24 hours, monthly, or yearly. Hence, the concept of load curve.

Short-term fix? Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Won't even take 36 months to complete.

 

[ziaulislam]

Energy usage has a cycle, be it 24 hours, monthly, or yearly. Hence, the concept of load curve.

Short-term fix? Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Won't even take 36 months to complete.

cost will still be 60% of crude oil still expensive only very slightly less than imported LNG, i will import LNG any day vs pipeline unless they bring it down to 45-50% of crude oil, and another 3-4 billion dollars for pipeline, plus risk of sanctions from your biggest export destination.
so thats not possible, my question still stand what will you do for short term? your have said no to coal, gas is expensive, not as much it was previously but if oil hits 70 it will double

 

[Kabira]

10 meant total supply of 6600MW

we are exactly doing the same but exchanged coal with imported gas which is expensive (haveli B shah, balloki,bhikki have combine capacity of 3600-400MW that will be brought on line from 2016-2018) and moved 2 imported coal plants to punjab which will be expensive due to coal transport and wastage cost though this would help the railways Lol

it seems to be noone is using simple maths but illogical justification of what PML N did

hydro is not short term solution, neither nuclear is, solar and wind do not provide load factor(24hr supply for layman), so only options are gas, oil and coal, coal is cheapest but govt opted for gas, is its most investment friendly(multiple reasons no transmission lines needed, more easy to get funding from donar agencies by private investors), this in my opinoin was a wrong decision which lead to wastage of upfront 1.5 years as gas wasnot possible than and could be headache down the line

Why make 10x660mw from imported coal when thar coal is there and better option? Also gas plants are cheaper per unit then imported coal. And looking at world situation right now, gas prices are never going up again. In fact they will continue to go down.