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Pakistan approves plan to have 61,000 MWs electricity generation capacity by 2030

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Pakistan approves plan to have 61,000 MWs electricity generation capacity by 2030
29/09/2021 admin 0 Comments
The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) approved an ambitious plan to expand electricity generation capacity from existing 34,776 megawatts to 61,112 MWs in 2030.
Pakistan’s first ever ‘Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2021-30’ envisages that Alternative and Renewable Energy will constitute 60% of the total installed capacity by 2030, NEPRA said on September 24. The share of oil-based generation capacity will drop from the existing 19% to only 2% while that of local coal based plants will go up to 6%, reducing dependence on imported coal from 11% to around 8%, it added.
Under the plan, the peak demand in 2030 is estimated at 37,129MWs as compared to the current 23,792MWs. The total consumption in 2030 is projected at 207,418 GWh as against the 130,652 GWh in 2021, NEPRA said.
As per the plan prepared by National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC), 73 power projects of 22,415 MWs are currently underway in the country in private and government sectors, including China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) initiative. Moreover, 143 projects with a total capacity of 10,062 MWs have been optimized as candidate projects. Also, 6,447 MWs of expensive thermal power plants will be retired during the period upon completion of the agreement terms.
In its observation, NEPRA directed NTDC to include two separate power projects meant for Gwadar and CPEC’s Bolan Special Economic Zone into the category of ‘committed projects’ for being at the ‘center stage of CPEC’. It said that these projects were immensely important to generate electricity near the load centres, which are not yet connected with the National Grid.
The report said that CPEC’s 720MWs Karot, 300 MWs Gwadar and 884 MWs Suki Kinari power projects are expected to be commissioned in June 2023.
The Authority noted that a project of Sindh government in Thar Block 6 in collaboration with UK-based Oracle Power PLC to generate over 1,300 MWs local coal based electricity had been included in the list of priority projects under CPEC. NEPRA directed NTDC to consider the project for inclusion in the list of ‘committed projects’ in its yearly review. The Oracle Power PLC has signed an agreement with the China Coal Energy Co., a subsidiary of state-owned China National Coal Group Co. Ltd. for execution of the project.
source
 
Great going. Development and economic well being are the keys to a stable neighbourhood. Good luck.
 
This should be the Moto for project, “If it’s doesn’t grows or flows in Pakistan, than it goes”.
 
The report said that CPEC’s 720MWs Karot, 300 MWs Gwadar and 884 MWs Suki Kinari power projects are expected to be commissioned in June 2023.

at What Cost?

Karot
Nepra Tarrif
for 10 year Rs 9+. (1USD = 101.6 PKR)
Current Rate 1 USD = Rs 170+
Add Project Security Cost
Add NTDC Cost
Add Distribution Company Cost

Suki Kinari
Nepra Tarrif
for 10 year Rs 9.8 (1USD = 97.4 PKR)
Current Rate 1 USD = Rs 170+
Add Project Security Cost
Add NTDC Cost
Add Distribution Company Cost
 
at What Cost?

Karot
Nepra Tarrif
for 10 year Rs 9+. (1USD = 101.6 PKR)
Current Rate 1 USD = Rs 170+
Add Project Security Cost
Add NTDC Cost
Add Distribution Company Cost

Suki Kinari
Nepra Tarrif
for 10 year Rs 9.8 (1USD = 97.4 PKR)
Current Rate 1 USD = Rs 170+
Add Project Security Cost
Add NTDC Cost
Add Distribution Company Cost
Those tarrifs were calculated in cents
8cents is still pretty expensive for hydro
This is probably duto granteed 20%ROI and BOT model rather then competitive bidding
Arguement was that this will be cheaper then desiel based plants..well still not affordable

Either we should have just gottwn internationla loans at 8% with govt grantees or done competitive bidding

The argument that laon is bad doesnt work here since this is GRANTEED payment and thus a loan since we can be defaulted on it
A loan based projct will cost between 4-5 cents for hydro
 
Pakistan needs extra electricity production/storage if they want to bring in electric transport. We would save billions from oil/gas imports. Good to know the government is making plans for small/large dams and coal plant electricity production. The last thing we want is power issues during 2030+ time and blame goes on to electric cars, the government has enough time to plan ahead. We want to go complete electric/solar, from bikes, motorbikes, rickshaws to cars, buses.
 
Pakistan approves plan to have 61,000 MWs electricity generation capacity by 2030
29/09/2021 admin 0 Comments
The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) approved an ambitious plan to expand electricity generation capacity from existing 34,776 megawatts to 61,112 MWs in 2030.
Pakistan’s first ever ‘Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2021-30’ envisages that Alternative and Renewable Energy will constitute 60% of the total installed capacity by 2030, NEPRA said on September 24. The share of oil-based generation capacity will drop from the existing 19% to only 2% while that of local coal based plants will go up to 6%, reducing dependence on imported coal from 11% to around 8%, it added.
Under the plan, the peak demand in 2030 is estimated at 37,129MWs as compared to the current 23,792MWs. The total consumption in 2030 is projected at 207,418 GWh as against the 130,652 GWh in 2021, NEPRA said.
As per the plan prepared by National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC), 73 power projects of 22,415 MWs are currently underway in the country in private and government sectors, including China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) initiative. Moreover, 143 projects with a total capacity of 10,062 MWs have been optimized as candidate projects. Also, 6,447 MWs of expensive thermal power plants will be retired during the period upon completion of the agreement terms.
In its observation, NEPRA directed NTDC to include two separate power projects meant for Gwadar and CPEC’s Bolan Special Economic Zone into the category of ‘committed projects’ for being at the ‘center stage of CPEC’. It said that these projects were immensely important to generate electricity near the load centres, which are not yet connected with the National Grid.
The report said that CPEC’s 720MWs Karot, 300 MWs Gwadar and 884 MWs Suki Kinari power projects are expected to be commissioned in June 2023.
The Authority noted that a project of Sindh government in Thar Block 6 in collaboration with UK-based Oracle Power PLC to generate over 1,300 MWs local coal based electricity had been included in the list of priority projects under CPEC. NEPRA directed NTDC to consider the project for inclusion in the list of ‘committed projects’ in its yearly review. The Oracle Power PLC has signed an agreement with the China Coal Energy Co., a subsidiary of state-owned China National Coal Group Co. Ltd. for execution of the project.
source

This is going to be a massively expensive undertaking. We not only need to have more dams to preserve water & generate electricity, but we also need to upgrade country wide transmission lines to reduce line losses and electric theft. Increasing the electric capacity by 100% is almost impossible task for Pakistan to afford. The funding of this mega project should have been done gradually over the past 3 decades but thanks to Noons & Bhuttos, we somehow will need to magically get 30-40 years of work done in 9! I am just worried the cost of debt and its impact on economy might outweigh probably benefits. I hope the funding bit is very well thought out! We need Hydro, Gas & electricity at cheapest rates in the region!
 
Those tarrifs were calculated in cents
8cents is still pretty expensive for hydro
This is probably duto granteed 20%ROI and BOT model rather then competitive bidding
Arguement was that this will be cheaper then desiel based plants..well still not affordable

Either we should have just gottwn internationla loans at 8% with govt grantees or done competitive bidding

The argument that laon is bad doesnt work here since this is GRANTEED payment and thus a loan since we can be defaulted on it
A loan based projct will cost between 4-5 cents for hydro
Not 8 Cent.
its 11.2 & 9.9 based on USD 101.6 & 97.4
Add rupee devaluation 67%
& then add distribution cost.

you are right about IPP. Those who invest only use small amount. rest is all loan. so we end up paying loan with interest for 1st 10 year. then profit from day one to investor for 30 year.
& if that's not enough tariff adjustment rate aka increase.

Plus these small hydro where water flow and storage is also less is more vulnerable to drought.
 
Need to figure out how to store extra electricity at industrial level
you can't. Batteries are still too exp. Although Solar-Net metering is a logical conclusion still majority had not shifted too solar.
Pakistan Issue is not a capacity rather at what cost(tariff).

Govt keep adding exp electricity. but what will happen when 25% of industry & residential switch to Solar.

& Govt. on other hand still oppose dam which logically make most sense location, agri, flood & Electricity (Production capacity is not the only factor - need water to run turbine - Only 1 dam site has max water inflow).
 

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