What's new

Oil crashes by most since 1991 as Saudi Arabia launches price war

Max

ELITE MEMBER
Joined
Nov 3, 2014
Messages
8,411
Reaction score
-3
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Oil crashes by most since 1991 as Saudi Arabia launches price war


New York (CNN Business)Oil prices suffered an historic collapse late Sunday after Saudi Arabia shocked the market by launching a price war against onetime ally Russia.

US oil prices crashed as much as 27% to a four-year low of $30 a barrel as traders brace for Saudi Arabia to flood the market with crude in a bid to recapture market share.

Crude was recently trading down 22% to $32 a barrel. Brent crude, the global benchmark, also plunged 22% to $35 a barrel. Both oil contracts are on track for their worst day since 1991, according to Refinitiv.

The turmoil comes after the implosion of the oil alliance between OPEC and Russia on Friday.


Oil just had its worst day in 11 years as OPEC and Russia fall out over the coronavirus crisis

Russia refused to go along with OPEC's efforts to rescue the coronavirus-battered oil market by cutting production. The failure of the Vienna meeting left the oil industry shell-shocked, sparking a 10% plunge in oil prices Friday. Oil prices were already stuck in a bear market because of the coronavirus outbreak that has caused demand for crude to fall sharply.

But then Saudi Arabia escalated the situation further over the weekend. The kingdom slashed its April official selling prices by $6 to $8, according to analysts, in a bid to retake market share and heap pressure on Russia.

"The signal is Saudi Arabia is looking to open the spigots and fight for market share," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData. "Saudi is rolling up its sleeves for a price war."

The biggest one-day percentage drop for US oil prices this century occurred in September 2001 when they plunged 15%, according to Refinitiv statistics that go back to 2000.

Analysts said that Russia's refusal to cut production amounted to a slap to US shale oil producers, many of which need higher oil prices to survive.

"Russia has been dropping hints that the real target is the US shale oil producers, because it is fed up with cutting output and just leaving them with space," analysts at energy consulting firm FGE wrote in a note to clients Sunday. "Such an attack may be doomed to failure unless prices remain low for a long time."

The 2014-2016 oil crash caused dozens of oil and gas companies to file for bankruptcy and hundreds of thousands of layoffs. However, the US shale industry emerged from that period stronger and the United States would eventually become the world's leading oil producer.

"The perils of playing a game of brinksmanship with Vladimir Putin were proven in dramatic fashion," Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a Friday note to clients. "It is hard to see how the relationship can easily be put back on a solid footing."

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/08/investing/oil-prices-crash-opec-russia-saudi-arabia/index.html
 
Oil in Turmoil: Prices Could Collapse to as Little as $20 a Barrel, Goldman Sachs Warns

© CC0 / Schmucki
BUSINESS
10:42 GMT 09.03.2020Get short URL
1 0 0
Subscribe

Oil futures crashed over 30 percent in Monday trading, with the drop being the second-largest in history, second only to the 1991 price plunge taking place during the Gulf War, with leading global price benchmark Brent crude dipping to as little as $32 a barrel.

Brent crude futures collapsed to their worst showing since the late 1990s on Monday in Asia trading, and may continue to plummet to just $20 a barrel, global investment banking firm Goldman Sachs has warned.

Amid the market plunge, the company has already revised its third and second quarter price forecast down to $30 a barrel, and warned clients that the drop may continue in the near future.

“The prognosis for the oil market is even more dire than in November 2014, when such a price war last started, as it comes to a head with a significant collapse in oil demand due to the coronavirus. This is the equivalent of a 1Q[2009] demand shock amid a 2Q-[2015] OPEC production surge for a likely 1Q[2016] price outcome,” Goldman oil strategist Damien Courvalin said in a note to clients seen by Yahoo Finance.
According to the analyst, the present situation “completely changes the outlook for the oil and gas markets…and brings back the playbook of the New Oil Order, with low-cost producers increasing supply from their spare capacity to force higher-cost producers to reduce output.”

1015666309_0:0:1298:975_1298x975_80_0_0_9cfd4ee62de44a20967e417f41e9cd3b.jpg.webp

© EAST NEWS / SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY
Fracking drill rig
Among the high-cost producers potentially on the chopping block are US shale, which has an average breakeven price of as high as $68 per barrel.

According to Russian state statistics agency Rosstat, Russia’s 2019 breakeven price, not accounting for taxes, amounted to the equivalent of $31.90 per barrel. Saudi Aramco, meanwhile, has boasted that its breakeven price is as little as $17 per barrel.
The price of May futures for Brent crude dropped by 28.69 percent on Monday to $32.28 per barrel, with April futures for WTI crude dropping by 31.35 percent to $28.33.

1078381646_0:0:2689:1786_2689x1786_80_0_0_168c3675b03365b36e61b60f0a5069e3.jpg.webp

© REUTERS / HAMAD I MOHAMMED
The logo of Aramco is seen as security personnel stand before the start of a press conference by Aramco at the Plaza Conference Center in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia November 3, 2019
The drop came after the Saudi-led Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its non-OPEC partners including Russia failed to reach a deal on a collective production cut in talks in Vienna, Austria on Friday, with OPEC+ subsequently abolishing output restrictions, and Saudi Arabia launching a price war, slashing official selling prices for April futures by $6-$8.

https://sputniknews.com/business/20...as-little-as-20-a-barrel-goldman-sachs-warns/
 
This was bound to happen. The chart was showing weakness for weeks. However, this downturn won't last long.
 

Back
Top Bottom