Malaysia’s snap election could break any number of ways

[Nan Yang]

Malaysia snap election could break any number of ways​

One-fifth of voters undecided ahead of Nov 19 contest forecasters expect to result in a hung parliament and heavy post-poll horse-trading

By NILE BOWIENOVEMBER 18, 2022

Competing coalitions fly their flags on the campaign trail ahead of Malaysia's November 19, 2022 election. Photo: Twitter / Benar

JOHOR BAHRU – Never has the outcome of a Malaysian election arguably been so difficult to predict. That sentiment is one forecasters and analysts might share on the eve of the November 19 general election following a rousing two-week campaign period that has seen the race tighten considerably, putting hitherto perceived frontrunner Barisan Nasional (BN) in uncharted waters.

BN chairperson Ahmad Zahid Hamidi was unmistakably bullish on the coalition’s chances for victory when he pushed incumbent caretaker Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob to call snap polls last month despite warnings of heavy monsoon rain and flooding. The United Malays National Organization-led (UMNO) bloc now clearly finds itself on the defensive.

Coalitions led by former premier Muhyiddin Yassin and long-time opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim are seen to have gained momentum in recent days, strengthening perceptions that the highly competitive vote will result in a hung parliament with no single coalition expected to win a simple majority in the legislature needed to form a government.

Gone is the era when BN predictably won elections; the looming vote may only decide which coalition will be in the strongest negotiation position to lead the next administration. With a fifth of the 21.1 million electorate still projected as undecided and the crucial ethnic Malay vote split by political fragmentation, the jury is out on who will be Malaysia’s next prime minister.

BN’s leader is widely seen as its biggest liability. Though Ismail, 62, is the coalition’s declared prime ministerial candidate, the bloc has been dogged by speculation that 69-year-old Zahid, who is UMNO’s president, could maneuver to take the top job for himself should the party deliver a strong showing. UMNO presidents have consistently held the premiership when BN won past elections.

Corruption charges have thus far prevented Zahid, who polls indicate is one of Malaysia’s least popular politicians, from assuming the role of national leader. He is widely perceived to have sidelined Ismail by dropping a raft of the incumbent’s allies as election candidates and recently caught flak for promising an ex-foreign minister a top position should BN come to power.

High-profile UMNO candidates like caretaker Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin have seemed preoccupied with convincing voters that Ismail is indeed BN’s prime minister candidate. Having been uncharitably assigned to contest an opposition stronghold seat, Khairy has found it necessary to campaign as a reformist who wishes to “cleanse” a party he admits has “gone astray.”

Khairy, widely seen as one of UMNO’s most talented young leaders, has spelled out on the hustings a 10-year timeline for his own ambition to lead the party. He has thrown his weight behind Ismail, who he said should be the party’s choice for prime minister should BN win at the polls in a veiled swipe at Zahid.

The 46-year-old also asserted there would be no interference in court cases involving BN leaders.

Analysts say the open split within UMNO pitting camps loyal to Zahid and Ismail respectively has exposed weaknesses within the ruling party on the campaign trail. Reports suggest UMNO has faced poor turnout at rallies, suffered from a shortage of election campaign workers and witnessed party heavyweights hunkering down in their own constituencies rather than rigorously campaigning for the party nationwide.

UMNO has long prided itself as the guardian of ethnic Malay interests, a status that is being directly challenged by Muhyiddin’s right-wing ethno-nationalist Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, which has positioned itself as a “clean alternative” for conservative Malay voters and drawn key support from Islamist coalition ally Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and its core conservative Muslim supporters.

Muhyiddin, who served as premier from March 2020 to August 2021, has spent most of his four decades in public life with UMNO. He served as the party’s deputy president and deputy prime minister in 2015 under now-jailed former premier Najib Razak but was sacked for taking a critical stance on the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) financial scandal.

Having initially allied with Anwar’s center-left Pakatan Harapan (PH) bloc, Muhyiddin, 75, broke ranks and led a government formed through “backdoor” parliamentary maneuvers. His 17-month tenure was focused on combating the Covid-19 pandemic with sweeping lockdowns and emergency rule, a record that he stands by and maintains “had a positive impact.”

PN was seen as a longshot before campaigning started but now looks like a contender. Observers note how its well-financed campaign has competently harnessed social media audience micro-targeting to appeal to the economically distraught with messaging that recalls the generous distribution of pandemic cash aid under Muhyiddin’s rule.

Serina Rahman, a lecturer at the National University of Singapore’s (NUS) Department of Southeast Asian Studies, said “PN may eat away at BN’s traditional Malay base because Muhyiddin is seen as being against corruption for his public attacks on Najib and 1MDB, and a safely religious option who is not as extreme as PAS but is able to work with them.”

Elsewhere in the opposition camp, PH leader Anwar finds himself in a make-or-break struggle to realize a multi-decade ambition to lead Malaysia. The 75-year-old “reformasi” icon has said this election will be his last. Observers have noted the thunderous reception his multiracial coalition has garnered at nationwide rallies and a sense of confidence by party leaders.

Analysts say an upset win for PH cannot be ruled out. The coalition, then headed by former premier Mahathir Mohamad, made history when it toppled BN in the May 2018 general election. Hope (harapan in Malay) then gave way to defeatism when the coalition imploded in February 2020 due to internal sabotage and contradictions, giving rise to political apathy among its base.

In his quest to deny BN another election victory, Anwar – reputed for his oratory skills on the stump – is betting that hope springs eternal. Forecasts from pollsters and analysts generally show PH as the best-placed coalition to win a majority of the 222 parliamentary seats up for grabs. Even so, without a simple majority of 112 seats, PH could again find itself on opposition benches.

“PH can’t form the federal government without solid support from Sabah and Sarawak. In a close call, especially with PN potentially brokering a deal with BN, the East Malaysian parties will be spoilt for options,” notes Hafidzi Razali, a senior analyst at the BowerGroupAsia consultancy in reference to Malaysia’s Borneo states, which have traditionally been more amenable to BN rule.

Sabah and Sarawak, Malaysia’s two largest states by area, account for 56 seats in parliament, or 25% of the total, effectively making them kingmakers in a hung parliament scenario. Anwar’s coalition draws strong support from urban-based voters and ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities, but the 144 ethnic Malay-dominated semi-rural and rural constituencies are what counts.

Gerrymandering has given rural Malay seats, traditionally dominated by BN, outsized influence to decide the election outcome. PH, which has centered its campaign in the heartland state of Perak, must capture a large enough share of the Malay vote to have a shot at power. Due to political fragmentation, Anwar’s camp may benefit from a split conservative vote.

“If a significant number of ethnic Malay voters switch support from BN to PN it may benefit PH the most,” said Peter Mumford, a Southeast Asia analyst with the Eurasia Group consultancy. “If the ethnic-Malay majority vote splits heavily between BN and PN, PH will have a strong chance to slip through the middle and take the most seats.”

Bridget Welsh, an honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham Malaysia Asia Research Institute, believes a “PN surge is definitely playing out across different constituencies. Whether or not this benefits PH depends on the seat. We see some contests where a PN victory takes away from UMNO and some places where it takes away from PH.

“In some cases, a split Malay vote takes away from them (PH) and makes it easier for BN to win or even puts PN in the running. How it plays out still depends on the size of the split Malay vote,” the academic told Asia Times. Of all the coalitions contesting, Welsh believes PN “has had the most well-organized strategic campaign” and has observed support for Muhyiddin’s candidacy in particular.

Prior to the dissolution of parliament in late October, PN constituted the largest support bloc propping up Ismail’s government with 46 seats versus BN’s 42. In the event of a post-election hung parliament, many analysts believe a reconstituted BN-PN government would be the most likely formulation to emerge, with Ismail leading a government that more-or-less resembles its earlier iteration.

In such a scenario, erstwhile foes BN and PN would set aside differences and justify their collaboration in the name of Malay unity and national duty, likely winning support from East Malaysian parties to shore up a governing majority. But while BN has campaigned as the solution to the political instability that has plagued the nation in recent years, some analysts dispute that message.

“I believe a BN-PN government will be inherently unstable, more unstable than a PH government, because there is a split within UMNO, and UMNO has proven in the last four years that it is not willing to take a secondary position,” said Welsh in reference to the strongarm tactics, sabotage and ultimatums that UMNO had deployed against coalition partners under Zahid’s watch.

Hafidzi of BowerGroupAsia, meanwhile, said PN will likely cause more-than-expected upsets in Malay-majority areas. “In the instance of PN getting more seats than BN… it’s possible that a compromise prime minister might not even be from BN,” adding that this would depend on which Malay coalition ultimately receives backing from East Malaysia’s political blocs.

In a Eurasia Group research note reviewed by Asia Times, the consultancy placed 50% odds on BN and its Sabah state affiliate winning the most seats, down significantly from the 70% it predicted at the start of the campaign on November 5. The BN coalition would likely fall short of a parliamentary majority (40% odds) rather than pass the 112-seat threshold (10% odds), according to its forecast.

Mumford, the note’s author, observed that PH had gained ground with 40% odds of winning the most seats, up from 30% at the start of the campaign, while PN could prove to be a wildcard with 10% odds of winning the most seats, up from nil previously. “The outlook and final makeup of the governing coalition thus remain fluid,” the veteran analyst said.

“BN winning the most seats – but significantly short of a majority – will likely lead to the same setup as the most recent administration (BN, PN and regional coalitions), while PH has fewer potential partners and therefore needs to win an outright majority, or close to it, to lead the next government,” Mumford wrote.

PH notably held 90 seats prior to parliament’s dissolution, making it far and away the largest single bloc. But as was observed during turbulent transitions in February 2020 and August 2021 in the wake of Mahathir’s and Muhyiddin’s respective resignations, the reformist coalition proved incapable of forming the key alliances needed to clinch a simple majority.

With dozens of marginal seats in play, turnout will be a crucial factor. Six states have experienced significant flooding since the campaign began. It remains to be seen whether poor weather on polling day will dent overall turnout, or whether public unhappiness with BN’s decision to call elections eight months earlier than legally required amid flood season will cost the coalition votes.

The inclusion of 6 million new voters after the implementation of an automatic voter registration system and the lowering of the national voting age from 21 to 18 are also wildcard factors. High turnout among first-time voters could swing rural seats for PH, though analysts caution that segments of Malaysian youth lean conservative, making the demographic difficult to assess.

The looming election differs from the previous race in 2018 in another significant way: there isn’t a clear antagonist to galvanize voters against. Public outrage against the excesses of the 1MDB scandal led to the villainization of former premier Najib, giving PH a winning edge and setting events in motion that would lead to Najib’s imprisonment for corruption on August 23 this year.

While broadly unpopular, Najib had garnered an energetic support base before his jailing that UMNO hopes to leverage into victory. Claims that Najib will be freed from prison and pardoned if BN wins the election are “baseless political propaganda,” according to a recent statement from his lawyers, who added that their client wishes to be acquitted through the judicial process.

While the electoral waters may be muddier and the political narratives less clear-cut than reformers versus kleptocrats, Malaysian voters will be casting ballots with the experience of having lived under administrations led by all three major coalitions on the ballot. Whether the vote brings a new era of political stability or ignites more destabilizing power struggles won’t be known until after election day.

Follow Nile Bowie on Twitter at @NileBowie

Source

Malaysia's snap election could break any number of ways

JOHOR BAHRU – Never has the outcome of a Malaysian election arguably been so difficult to predict. That sentiment is one forecasters and analysts might

asiatimes.com

 

[Nan Yang]

Malaysia election 2022: Muhyiddin, Anwar make rival claims about forming next government after massive ‘green wave’ in favour of Islamists​

• The Islamist PAS has powered a conservative ‘green wave’ among rural Malay voters disenchanted with constant bickering among the country’s main parties, observers say
• The election remains too close to call, though heavyweights such as elder statesman Mahathir Mohamad and finance minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz have been defeated

Joseph Sipalan Hadi Azmiand Agencies
Published: 5:59pm, 19 Nov, 2022

Malaysians pose with their inked fingers to mark that they have voted during the general election in Seberang Perai, Penang state. Photo: AP

INTRODUCTION

This story has been made freely available as a public service to our readers. Please consider supporting SCMP’s journalism by subscribing.

4am, November 20: This live blog has now come to an end. Follow This Week in Asia’s coverage of what’s next in Malaysian politics after Saturday’s knife-edge election.

Polling has officially closed for Malaysia’s 15th general election, as voter turnout defied expectations in what is arguably the most hotly contested polls the country has seen.

The latest data from the Election Commission showed 14.7 million people – or 70 per cent of 21 million eligible voters – had cast their votes as of 4pm local time, exceeding the previous record of around 12.4 million votes cast in 2018.

Still, that figure is some distance from the 82 per cent turnout in the 2018 vote. There are some 6 million new voters this time around, following new legislation lowering the voting age to 18 from 21 and enabling automatic voter registration.

Observers previously suggested a low turnout was a possibility amid apathy surrounding the country’s spin-dryer politics, which has seen three prime ministers govern the country since 2018’s vote.

This election is also unprecedented in that three distinct coalitions are vying for the right to lead the nation for the next five years – the Umno-led Barisan Nasional, multiracial Pakatan Harapan and Malay nationalist Perikatan Nasional.

All eyes will next turn to Malaysia’s constitutional monarch, Sultan Abdullah Sultan Ahmad Shah.

The winner with the most votes may be given the first opportunity to negotiate a minority government, or candidates for prime minister may be allowed to forge pacts between their coalitions, as was the case in the formation of the last two governments.

If that fails, the king may determine which leader he believes commands majority in parliament, though this would not be tested publicly until parliament reconvenes. We can expect more twists and turns on Sunday, and possibly over the coming week.

Follow This Week in Asia’s continuing coverage of what’s next in Malaysian politics after Saturday’s knife-edge election. Goodbye for now!

Anwar Ibrahim, leader of the Pakatan Harapan alliance, has said the bloc has obtained the support of at least 112 MPs, but declined to disclose further details.

He has disputed the possibility that Perikatan Nasional’s Muhyiddin Yassin – which has stunned the country with significant seat gains nationwide – was in pole position to form the next government. “It is impossible for him to claim to do so … we have it in writing.”

“We have all the documents … but we have to respect the process and decorum to first submit [to the king],” Anwar said.

He repeatedly declined to respond to questions on whether his bloc would join forces with its arch-rival, the United Malays National Organisation (Umno) and its Barisan Nasional alliance.

Pakatan Harapan, comprising Anwar’s People’s Justice Party, the Democratic Action Party and Amanah, along with the bloc’s electoral ally Muda, has won 80 seats so far, according to the Malaysiakini news portal.

Muhyiddin Yassin, leader of Malaysia’s upstart Perikatan Nasional (PN) alliance, said his bloc was ready to begin talks with other parties to form the next federal government.

Former prime minister Muhyiddin’s Bersatu party, along with its ally the Islamist PAS, have won a total of 73 seats, with six of the 220 seats in play still unannounced.

PN requires the support of other parties to obtain a simple majority of 112 seats. Muhyiddin said he was ready to work with the two major blocs in the Malaysian Borneo states of Sabah and Sarawak. These regional alliances have fared well in the polls, and earlier said they would form a so-called Borneo bloc to solidify their negotiating position.

Asked if he would work with the reformist Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance - from which Muhyiddin defected from to form Perikatan Nasional - the former prime minister replied curtly: “Not with PH”.

Muhyiddin added that he had received a letter from Istana Negara, the national palace but declined to disclose its contents.

The country’s king, Sultan Abdullah Sultan Ahmad Shah, has prerogative powers to invite the leader of the political party with the largest number of MPs to form the next government.

2:40AM

Malaysia faces hung parliament with polls too close to call
From Bloomberg

Malaysia is heading for its first-ever hung parliament as coalitions led by Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim and former premier Muhyiddin Yassin are poised to fail to win a majority, fuelling political uncertainty in an economy on a fragile rebound.

Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan coalition was in the lead with 75 seats and there were 20 contests left to be called, according to local media Malaysiakini. That means no alliance would be able to get the 111 seats required from Saturday’s vote to immediately win a majority.

The result will extend a political crisis that has seen the government change three times in four years and hampered efforts to bring down the cost of living and rein in a growing deficit in the aftermath of spending to shield the economy from the pandemic.

Malaysia’s king will now play a key role in breaking the impasse. The winner with the most votes may be given the first opportunity to negotiate a minority government, or candidates for prime minister may be allowed to forge pacts between their coalitions, as was the case in the formation of the last two governments.

If that fails, the king may determine which leader he believes commands majority in parliament, though this would not be tested publicly until parliament reconvenes, said New Sin Yew, a constitutional lawyer at AmerBON Advocates.

Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, leader of the Barisan Nasional bloc comprising the powerful Umno party, has issued a statement saying that the alliance accepts the people’s decision in Saturday’s vote.

Barisan Nasional has fared relatively poorly, with the upstart Perikatan Nasional alliance led by former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin beating it in wards once seen as Umno strongholds.

Barisan Nasional will remain committed to contributing to establishing a stable government, and stands ready to set aside prior differences and sentiments, Zahid said in his statement without naming Perikatan Nasional or Pakatan Harapan.

The Malaysiakini news portal at 1.40am said it was declaring a “hung parliament” – meaning no single coalition or party will be able to form the next government on its own.

Pakatan Harapan is currently in the lead with victory in the bag, or very likely, in 70 seats. However, with just 38 seat left to be declared, no party will be able to secure a simple majority of 111 seats.

The various coalition are likely to have closed-door talks in the coming hours – and days – to formulate new alliances.

Saturday’s results suggest Umno’s decision to trigger early polls – well ahead of a July 2023 deadline – has backfired.
1:24AM

‘Green wave’ election fells major names in Malaysian politics

The following well known MPs have been defeated, or are very likely to be defeated in Saturday’s general election:

• Mahathir Mohamad (two-time prime minister)
• Azmin Ali (senior minister in charge of economic affairs)
• Khairy Jamaluddin (health minister)
• Tengku Zafrul Aziz (finance minister)
• Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah (12-term MP)
• Tengku Adnan Bin Tengku Mansor (former secretary general of Umno)
• Nurul Izzah Anwar (3-term MP)

A new coalition led by former Malaysian prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin is leading after Saturday’s general election, with opposition chief Anwar Ibrahim a close second, early results from the Election Commission showed.

As Malaysians headed out to vote in a country that has seen three prime ministers in as many years, opinion polls were forecasting Anwar’s alliance would take the most seats in parliament but fail to reach the majority needed to form a government.

But Muhyiddin’s new alliance, which includes a Malay-centric conservative party and an Islamist party that has touted sharia law, made strong gains.

The other main contender – Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s ruling Barisan Nasional coalition – was losing ground in traditional strongholds to Muhyiddin’s bloc, the results showed.

As of 12.30am, the Election Commission had announced results for 123 of the 222 parliamentary seats. Muhyiddin’s Perikatan Nasional alliance won 42 seats, while Anwar’s multiracial coalition won 36.

Perikatan was a junior partner in Ismail’s coalition government. If the result is close, the two could come together again to block Anwar.

Mahathir Mohamad, one of the political titans of post-independence Malaysia, is likely to bow out of frontline politics after nearly seven decades after suffering his first electoral defeat in 53 years.

Mahathir garnered 4,566 votes of over 47,000 votes cast in the seat of Langkawi, or less than 10 per cent, meaning he will lose his 15,000 ringgit (US$3,294) electoral deposit.

In his time as an MP, Mahathir was prime minister twice, from 1981 to 2003, and then again from 2018 to 2020.
To his supporters, Mahathir was the father of the country’s modernisation and he is credited for force-marching the country from a hyper reliance on agriculture and mining towards becoming an industrial powerhouse and one of Southeast Asia’s most important economies.

During his first tenure as prime minister from 1981 to 2003, he presided over multiple mega projects including the creation of the new administrative capital Putrajaya, Kuala Lumpur International Airport and the iconic Petronas Twin Towers.

The country’s first prime minister of lay heritage, he also made his mark by facing off with the powerful hereditary monarchs and stripping them of some powers in the 1990s.

Critics viewed the veteran politician as an archetypal despot who perpetuated crony capitalism, nepotism and race-based politics.

Overseas, Mahathir gained notoriety for his stridently anti-Semitic views and for browbeating political opponents including his one-time protégé Anwar Ibrahim.

The last major act of his seven-decade political career was arguably the most audacious: after more than a decade in retirement, he returned to frontline politics to topple the powerful United Malays National Organisation (Umno) he once led, and became prime minister for the second time.

That 2018-2020 stint in power came about after he joined hands with Anwar and other former enemies to take down the incumbent prime minister, Najib Razak, following Najib’s links to the plunder of billions of state funds in the 1MDB scandal.

In 2020, he was forced to resign as prime minister – and as leader of the Pakatan Harapan alliance that gained power in 2018 – following internal turmoil within the bloc. Critics say he engineered the power tussle to gain an upper hand over internal rivals but the move turned awry. As a result, he occupied an unfamiliar position on the fringes of politics following his ousting.

He contested Saturday’s poll under the aegis of a new party, Pejuang or the “Homeland Fighters’ Party”, which he hoped would play a kingmaker role.

Mahathir was the MP of the Kubang Pasu constituency from 1974 to 2004. He was the MP for Alor Setar Selatan – also in Kedah – from 1964 to 1969, when he was defeated by a member of the Islamist PAS party.

Azmin Ali, who was a central figure behind a party coup that that toppled the reformist Pakatan Harapan alliance in 2020, is headed for defeat at the hands of protégé Amirudin Shari.

In its place, Pakatan Harapan defectors including Azmin and Muhyiddin Yassin formed a new government with the help of Umno. That move is popularly referred to as the ‘Sheraton Move’ referring to the hotel where the power grab was brokered by Umno and other Malay nationalist allies.

Azmin is one of Malaysia’s biggest political names, and has been the country’s de facto no. 2 leader since the 2020 political coup.

The results thus far suggest a strong swing in favour of the Islamist Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS) in Peninsular Malaysia’s northern states, analysts say.

Speaking on Malaysian TV channel Astro Awani, Shamsul Amri Baharuddin said the voting patterns from results thus far suggested that “traditionalists” among the country’s majority Malays in states like Kedah, Perak, Terangganu and Kelantan were now seeking an alternative to the constantly bickering Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN).

PAS – with its core Islamist messaging – offered this, Baharuddin said. Other panellists agreed, saying disenchantment among rural low-income Malays over the economic performance of both BN and PH may given PAS and its Perikatan Nasional (PN) alliance a shot in the arm. PN – led by former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin – has clinched 11 seats so far, according to an official tally at 11.40pm. PH has 18 seats and BN has 13 seats.

Some big names may be losing their MP seats, going by official unofficial results out nearly six hours after polls closed.
There are widening expectations that elder statesman Mahathir Mohamad – who has been a Member of Parliament (MP) without interruption since 1969 – is poised to lose in the seat of Langkawi. This is likely to bring the curtain down on the 97-year-old two-time prime minister’s illustrious career in frontline politics.

Elsewhere, incumbent Finance Minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz is likely to have lost to Pakatan Harapan’s Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad in the seat of Kuala Selangor, local media project. Tengku Zafrul, a former top banker, was roped in as the country’s finance minister in 2020 following a party coup in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Tengku Zafrul initially said he had no designs on being an elected lawmaker, but this year joined Umno.

Another relatively big name projected to be headed for defeat is former education minister Maszlee Malik, who is contesting in the seat of Simpang Renggam in Johor. The expected victor in that contest is Hasni Mohammad, Johor’s former chief minister.

Results have officially been called for five seats so far, with the Election Commission declaring victory for Sarawak’s ruling coalition Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS).

GPS is widely expected to win most of the 31 seats up for grabs in Sarawak, making it a potential kingmaker in the event that none of the major national coalitions – Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional – secure a simple majority of the 222-seat lower house of Parliament known as the Dewan Rakyat.

Meanwhile, unofficial tallies by political parties and various local media see stiff competition for some big names.
This includes opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, who is estimated to hold a slim lead over Perikatan Nasional’s Ahmad Faizal Azumu for the Tambun seat in Perak state.

Two-time former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, who is defending his seat on the holiday island of Langkawi, is trailing Barisan Nasional’s Amirshah Siraj by over 1,000 votes in early counting.

It is going to be a long night, but this is a start: the Election Commission has declared the first result, for the seat of Igan in Sarawak. Ahmad Johnie Zawawi of the Gabungan Parti Sarawak – the state’s governing coalition – has won the ward with 93.16 per cent of 14,662 votes cast.

Igan is Malaysia’s smallest constituency with just 28,290 electors. In contrast, the country’s largest seat by number of electors is Bangi in Selangor, with 303,430 registered voters.

Malaysian electoral rights groups have long complained about malapportionment – where electoral representation is skewed because of the creation of constituencies of significantly uneven sizes.

So what factors might voters have considered as they cast their ballots today? According to veteran political scientist Johan Saravanamuttu, voters were likely most concerned about the stability of the economy after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Alongside deciding who will best steward the economy, Malaysian voters were also likely to be mulling over which coalition is best positioned to vanquish “the monster” that is corruption in the country, Saravanamuttu told CNA.
Political analyst James Chin of the Australian National University partly disagreed, saying that corruption was a top consideration only for urban voters, with rural residents chiefly concerned with bread-and-butter issues.

The youth-centric “VoteMalaysia” movement behind efforts to galvanise overseas Malaysians to cast their ballots has said it received 35,092 voting slips from 25 countries. These were then delivered to returning officers in 216 constituencies as of 5pm on Saturday. The number of postal ballots processed by VoteMalaysia constitutes 73 per cent of the total 48,109 postal ballots issued by the Election Commission.

So the waiting game begins. Leaders and supporters of the three major coalitions – Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional – will gather in designated locations to watch the election results. Here at Pakatan Harapan’s “election night HQ” in Dorsett Grand Subang Hotel, local and international media have begun trickling in.

The bloc’s leader Anwar Ibrahim is expected to arrive soon. Barisan Nasional, the country’s so-called grand old party, will gather at the Putra World Trade Centre in Kuala Lumpur. Leaders of Perikatan Nasional led by former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin will gather at the Glenmarie Golf and Country Resort.

About 70 per cent or 14.7 million of total registered voters had cast their ballots as of 4pm local time, according to the latest update from the Election Commission (EC).

The EC had earlier suspended voting in 11 polling centres in the Baram constituency in Sarawak in Malaysian Borneo, citing poor weather as voters were forced to wade through floodwaters to cast their ballots.

A new date for voting will be set at a later time, the Commission said in a statement.

This means that tonight’s results will only cover 220 of the 222 parliamentary seats up for grabs. On Friday, the EC postponed the vote for the Padang Serai constituency in Kedah state to December 7, following the death of a candidate earlier in the week.

Voters in the state constituency of Tioman in Pahang state will also have to wait until December 7 to cast their ballots, after the EC postponed the contest following the death of one of the candidates in the pre-dawn hours of polling day.

Besides the parliamentary election, state elections are being held concurrently for the states of Pahang, Perlis and Perak.

 

[Beast]

Malaysia best time is under Najib. All the opposition in Malaysia are useless. They raise tax and chase out foreign investment. Ordinary Malaysian life become harder under them. Najib is corrupted but he bring in investment , more job opportunities and more infrastructure upgrade under his era.

 

[Indos]

Can the government be stable this time ? It is once again very narrow win

 

[Indos]

Who ever become PM, both are quite close with Indonesia.

 

[Nan Yang]

Malaysia best time is under Najib. All the opposition in Malaysia are useless. They raise tax and chase out foreign investment. Ordinary Malaysian life become harder under them. Najib is corrupted but he bring in investment , more job opportunities and more infrastructure upgrade under his era.

No. Malaysia best time was under Mahathir.

 

[Nan Yang]

Can the government be stable this time ? It is once again very narrow win

Impossible.
The rurul Malay abandoned UMNO, which is good. But instead of switch to Harapan, they chose PAS Islamic party.

So Malaysia may get a Taliban government.

Quote
PETALING JAYA: Former law minister Zaid Ibrahim has called on Pakatan Harapan (PH) to work together with Umno to form a “more moderate Malay-based” political bloc to resist further advances from the more “extreme” Perikatan Nasional (PN).

He said that coming into the 15th general election (GE15), PH, which has been attacking Umno relentlessly for being corrupt, was itself blindsided by PN peddling a more “dangerous,” “extreme, religious and almost fascist kind of thinking.”

 

[Indos]

Impossible.
The rurul Malay abandoned UMNO, which is good. But instead of switch to Harapan, they chose PAS Islamic party.

So Malaysia may get a Taliban government.

Quote
PETALING JAYA: Former law minister Zaid Ibrahim has called on Pakatan Harapan (PH) to work together with Umno to form a “more moderate Malay-based” political bloc to resist further advances from the more “extreme” Perikatan Nasional (PN).

He said that coming into the 15th general election (GE15), PH, which has been attacking Umno relentlessly for being corrupt, was itself blindsided by PN peddling a more “dangerous,” “extreme, religious and almost fascist kind of thinking.”

But UMNO coalition is still quite strong, the split is still narrow. Regardless of that, this is not good for parliamentary system, we can see what happen for the last several years in Malaysia when UMNO is not dominant anymore.

In Indonesia case, despite the Presidential system can make the split narrow between two coalition, usually there is always parties that will change sides and join the winning coalition. During SBY administration, he gets around 65 % support in parliament with PDI-P, Gerindra, and PKB as opposition. Now under Jokowi, he has around 82 % support in parliament with only Demokrat and PKS as opposition.

 

[Beast]

No. Malaysia best time was under Mahathir.

But 2018 under Mahathir is noting but a disaster, do u agree? Foreign investment fled, inflation didnt go down. Job opportunity go down. Ordinary Malaysian paid more tax.

You are partly wrong.

 

[kuge]

But 2018 under Mahathir is noting but a disaster, do u agree? Foreign investment fled, inflation didnt go down. Job opportunity go down. Ordinary Malaysian paid more tax.

You are partly wrong.

he is referring to Mahathir's first term in the PM office not 2nd term.

 

[Nan Yang]

But UMNO coalition is still quite strong, the split is still narrow. Regardless of that, this is not good for parliamentary system, we can see what happen for the last several years in Malaysia when UMNO is not dominant anymore.

In Indonesia case, despite the Presidential system can make the split narrow between two coalition, usually there is always parties that will change sides and join the winning coalition. During SBY administration, he gets around 65 % support in parliament with PDI-P, Gerindra, and PKB as opposition. Now under Jokowi, he has around 82 % support in parliament with only Demokrat and PKS as opposition.

Malaysia cannot be compared with Indonesia due to demographics.

Politicians plays communal politics. They play into Ethnic Malay fears of Chinese economic domination.

Rurul Malay voters did not switch to Pakatan Harapan because Pakatan Harapan is a multi-racial coalition dominated by DAP (Pakatan Harapan actually won the most seats).

They, the rurul Malays selected Perikatan Nasional instead because its a solely Malay Muslim coalition.

Perikatan coalition however is dominated by PAS Islamic party which wants to implement strict Sharia law.

Anyway its too late. Perikatan has managed to form the next Government.

Malaysia will now go downhill very fast. Just look at Kelantan and Trengganu which have been under PAS for years.

 

[Mista]

It's bad for us as neighbors if a religious conservative party becomes the ruling party.

 

[Song Hong]

Malaysia cannot be compared with Indonesia due to demographics.

Politicians plays communal politics. They play into Ethnic Malay fears of Chinese economic domination.

Rurul Malay voters did not switch to Pakatan Harapan because Pakatan Harapan is a multi-racial coalition dominated by DAP (Pakatan Harapan actually won the most seats).

They, the rurul Malays selected Perikatan Nasional instead because its a solely Malay Muslim coalition.

Perikatan coalition however is dominated by PAS Islamic party which wants to implement strict Sharia law.

Anyway its too late. Perikatan has managed to form the next Government.

Malaysia will now go downhill very fast. Just look at Kelantan and Trengganu which have been under PAS for years.

Razak bumiputera policies long become a monster that Malay elites found themselves unable to roll back. Once sector of Malay elites advocate socialism. Then Chinese wealth will still go to Malays.

But Razak hungry for power. He coup d'etat against Tunku in return, his supporters can free hand to loot Chinese.

Then Malay elites go to Chinese for a 50% of cut and divide among themselves, never even benefit the people. And Malay elites keep going to Chinese N times, until Chinese see their wealth going to zero.

The bumi policies is merely Malay racist purge against Chinese -- and has nothing to do with racial affirmative.

This policies result in the most stupid people elevate to the top while the smartest flee the country. In the era of war of IQ of nations, this is fatal to Malaysia.

 

[epebble]

Malaysia cannot be compared with Indonesia due to demographics.

Can you expand on this? What are the fundamental differences between Malaysia and Indonesia, demographically? I know both of them as Islamic majority nations, generally peaceful. Also, what is the difference between these two and Philippines, besides religion?

Razak bumiputra policies long become a monster that Malay elites found themselves unable to roll back. Once sector of Malay elites advocate socialism. Then Chinese wealth will still go to Malays.

But Razak hungry for power. He coup d'etat against Tunku in return, his supporters can free hand to loot Chinese.

Then Malay elites go to Chinese for a 50% of cut and divide among themselves, never even benefit the people. And Malay elites keep going to Chinese N times, until Chinese see their wealth going to zero.

The bumi policies is merely Malay racist purge against Chinese -- and has nothing to do with racial affirmative.

This policies result in the most stupid people elevate to the top while the smartest flee the country. In the era of war of IQ of nations, this is fatal to Malaysia.

Are there no such policies in Indonesia? If so, why not? They don't have same concerns?

 

[Song Hong]

Can you expand on this? What are the fundamental differences between Malaysia and Indonesia, demographically? I know both of them as Islamic majority nations, generally peaceful. Also, what is the difference between these two and Philippines, besides religion?


Are there no such policies in Indonesia? If so, why not? They don't have same concerns?

The speak Malayo-Polynesian languages. Today Bahasa Malayu and Bahasa Indonesia is mutually intelligible. In comparison, Chinese Mandarin and Chinese Taiwanese are totally no intelligible,

Indonesia is lucky to start off with communist Sukarno as leader. He hate all these superstitious and want people to be undivided. The reason communist can be leader of Indonesia is because Indonesia win her independence through fighting the Dutch. West hate Sukarno and ask Suharto in convenience alliance with Islam group to take to Sukarno and in the process killed lots of Chinese,

Malaysia got independence when British hand over power to Malays. Expectedly British chose the worst scvm of the country, the most superstitious person as leader. British hate Chinese. So all these Malaysia policies has support and even instigation of West.