Opinion: A Chinese takeover of North Korea? Unlikely. | Asian Correspondent
Being pro-China is a crime whose punishment is either death or the life in prison-camp in North Korea.Opinion: A Chinese takeover of North Korea? Unlikely.
By Andy Jackson Dec 25, 2011 12:59AM UTC
...
While China has become increasing present in the North Korean economic system, Cha overestimates Beijings power over Pyongyang for several reasons:
Pyongyang has largely avoided economic reforms to integrate itself into the world trade system. That leave North Korea less vulnerable to outside pressure, even Chinese pressure.
North Korean xenophobia extends to China. Despite claims that the Chinese and North Koreans were as close as lips and teeth, Pyongyang has always seen its partnership with Beijing as one of necessity rather than friendship. Kim Jong-uns grandfather, Kim Il-sung, nearly lost the 1950-1953 war against South Korea and United Nations forces because he resisted Mao Zedongs repeated offers to enter the war because of fear of Chinese dominance, relenting only when it because obvious that MacArthurs forces would not stop until they reached the Amnok (Yalu) River. After the war, the elder Kim made a point of trying to keep equidistant relations between Beijing and Moscow.
North Korean fear of Chinese dominance runs deep. North Korea draws a historical connection(PDF) to the ancient kingdom of Goguryeo (37 BC to 668 AD), one of the three kingdoms of ancient Korean history. Goguryeos major claim to fame is its defeat of successive Chinese invasions. Perhaps Goguryeos most famous figure is Eulji Mundeok, a general credited with probably killing more Chinese than anyone in history except Mao. The Goguryeo connection to North Korean ideology points to resistance to foreign dominance in general but resistance to Chinese dominance in particular.
The North Koreans are adept at weeding out potential fifth columnists in their ranks. Kim Il-sung purged both the pro-Chinese and pro-Soviet factions within the government in the 1950s. There have been periodic purges since then to weed out people who might not loyally follow the Kim dynasty. There is little reason to believe that Kim Jong-un and his inner circle would be any less willing to purge officials whom they believe to be insufficiently loyal. That would make it much more difficult for Beijing to be able to use a faction of the North Korean government to achieve dominance.
North Korea will likely remain a tarbaby for Beijing; something it does not like but which it cannot get rid of.
