Iranian Space program

[Messerschmitt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1589293257154269185

https://twitter.com/x/status/1589293286115590145

https://twitter.com/x/status/1589293302998007810

https://twitter.com/x/status/1589293316847566849

 

[tsunset]

Reminds me the US midgetman mini ICBM that they abandonned

 

[tsunset]

Hope in some month we can start to see OSINT satelite images of Bavar sites, exactly 2 years back Iran told a new Bavar will come in two years

How many Bavar full kits can Iran expect to produce per year? Is it the last upgrade or you think there are going to be variants such as ASAT and ABM, like the S-500 or the S-300VM?

 

[Stryker1982]

Does anyone think Iran will try to create conventional ICBMs?

At minimum warhead should be in the 500kg+ for it to have some usefulness. Cost should be as low as possible, and guidance would have to be high-end for it to be worthwhile as a non-nuclear ICBMs.

One must also ask, the US is the only reason Iran would want an ICBM, on the other hand, convential attack on the US mainland would have the highest consequences. Therefore, I don't see the usefulness of conventional ICBMS, only nuclear makes sense to me.

Conventional IRBM 500kg-750kg warhead makes sense to me though.

Hope in some month we can start to see OSINT satelite images of Bavar sites, exactly 2 years back Iran told a new Bavar will come in two years

How many Bavar full kits can Iran expect to produce per year? Is it the last upgrade or you think there are going to be variants such as ASAT and ABM, like the S-500 or the S-300VM?

ASAT and ABM is definitely in the works for this system.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Hope in some month we can start to see OSINT satelite images of Bavar sites, exactly 2 years back Iran told a new Bavar will come in two years

How many Bavar full kits can Iran expect to produce per year? Is it the last upgrade or you think there are going to be variants such as ASAT and ABM, like the S-500 or the S-300VM?

I believe the development will continue but the system will be deployed and maybe in several year we will have another generation of Bavar , what is interesting about this generation of bavar is that tracking range is 100km more than engagement range . and they called new missile Sayyad-4b not Sayyad-5 that make me believe in future this generation of Bavar will be armed with a new Missile called Sayyad-5 with at least 400km of range

 

[Shawnee]

Does anyone think Iran will try to create conventional ICBMs?

At minimum warhead should be in the 500kg+ for it to have some usefulness. Cost should be as low as possible, and guidance would have to be high-end for it to be worthwhile as a non-nuclear ICBMs.

One must also ask, the US is the only reason Iran would want an ICBM, on the other hand, convential attack on the US mainland would have the highest consequences. Therefore, I don't see the usefulness of conventional ICBMS, only nuclear makes sense to me.

Conventional IRBM 500kg-750kg warhead makes sense to me though.


ASAT and ABM is definitely in the works for this system.

Ghaem 100: Carbonfiber MGM 134 Midgetman +

Low cost

100-200 kg warhead
W87 or conventional RDX for high value assets

 

[Stryker1982]

Ghaem 100: Carbonfiber MGM 134 Midgetman +

Low cost

100-200 kg warhead
W87 or conventional RDX for high value assets

Low cost is relatively speaking though. What does low-cost mean in this context? For example is 700,000$ a piece low cost? With 700,000$ they could make alot more Qiam missiles which would be much more useful for them than conventionally attacking the mainland of the US which would probably result in major strategic bombardment. If warhead is nuclear then of course it is worth it.

That conventional warhead is also not sufficient, their is no missile in Iran with such low warhead. Clearly they will only build a missile if it can deliver an acceptable 500kg+ warhead at ranges beyond 300km.

 

[Shawnee]

Low cost is relatively speaking though. What does low-cost mean in this context? For example is 700,000$ a piece low cost? With 700,000$ they could make alot more Qiam missiles which would be much more useful for them than conventionally attacking the mainland of the US which would probably result in major strategic bombardment. If warhead is nuclear then of course it is worth it.

That conventional warhead is also not sufficient, their is no missile in Iran with such low warhead. Clearly they will only build a missile if it can deliver an acceptable 500kg+ warhead at ranges beyond 300km.

100 kg is good enough for w78 style.
Only if the target is valuable 100 kg of RDX can bring down a high value target.

Price estimate is difficult. It can cost 300K down the road. My guess of course.

Mobility is more important than MIRV. NK super large missiles are very difficult to mobilize and are liquid fuel as well.

This gem is almost an artillery pack. Very easy to use.

 

[shadihassan28]

Does anyone think Iran will try to create conventional ICBMs?

At minimum warhead should be in the 500kg+ for it to have some usefulness. Cost should be as low as possible, and guidance would have to be high-end for it to be worthwhile as a non-nuclear ICBMs.

One must also ask, the US is the only reason Iran would want an ICBM, on the other hand, convential attack on the US mainland would have the highest consequences. Therefore, I don't see the usefulness of conventional ICBMS, only nuclear makes sense to me.

Conventional IRBM 500kg-750kg warhead makes sense to me though.


ASAT and ABM is definitely in the works for this system.

I highly doubt it to have any terror effect they would thousands of these icbms and let’s say they do hit America what do you think the response would be, Iran can fight it out in their backyard but Iran would have to sow so much destruction upon America and her Allie’s that they would think twice, they’re going for nuke capability but only as a deterrent like North Korea. Let’s say iran does field dozens of nuclear capable missiles in 5 to 10 ten years I highly doubt they would actually think of using them on countries with 2nd and 3rd strike capabilities, even Russia, china and America would never dare to because no one wins and everyone dies.

 

[jauk]

Does anyone think Iran will try to create conventional ICBMs?

At minimum warhead should be in the 500kg+ for it to have some usefulness. Cost should be as low as possible, and guidance would have to be high-end for it to be worthwhile as a non-nuclear ICBMs.

One must also ask, the US is the only reason Iran would want an ICBM, on the other hand, convential attack on the US mainland would have the highest consequences. Therefore, I don't see the usefulness of conventional ICBMS, only nuclear makes sense to me.

Conventional IRBM 500kg-750kg warhead makes sense to me though.


ASAT and ABM is definitely in the works for this system.

They already certainly have. The question is when it’s time to reveal them. Don’t forget the things we see are a good indication of things we don’t.

 

[Hack-Hook]

100 kg is good enough for w78 style.

w78 is pretty much advance , I doubt Iran in its first try if decide to go that route will be able to make something with that yield in that small package

 

[Stryker1982]

I highly doubt it to have any terror effect they would thousands of these icbms and let’s say they do hit America what do you think the response would be, Iran can fight it out in their backyard but Iran would have to sow so much destruction upon America and her Allie’s that they would think twice, they’re going for nuke capability but only as a deterrent like North Korea. Let’s say iran does field dozens of nuclear capable missiles in 5 to 10 ten years I highly doubt they would actually think of using them on countries with 2nd and 3rd strike capabilities, even Russia, china and America would never dare to because no one wins and everyone dies.

That's what I figure, even in the thousands, their is still not much usefulness in this unless they are nuclear missiles. Then you have Russia-China level of deterrence on a mass scale.

I just don't see the conventional purpose of this when the only target would be the US.

100 kg is good enough for w78 style.
Only if the target is valuable 100 kg of RDX can bring down a high value target.

Price estimate is difficult. It can cost 300K down the road. My guess of course.

Mobility is more important than MIRV. NK super large missiles are very difficult to mobilize and are liquid fuel as well.

This gem is almost an artillery pack. Very easy to use.

As Shadihassan28 said, even if you produce 3000 of these, you will not change the course of a war with them, and the consequences would be severe. IRBMs make sense to target airbases like Diego Garcia.

The USA has full control of the escalation ladder. The ladder peaks at nuclear ICBMs which is a capability Iran must have in order to have full deterrence against the USA. For example, conventional attack on Boeing factories or other military factories, Pentagon etc... would likely result in heavy strategic bombing on military and civilian infrastructure unseen probably since Tokyo in 1945.

Personally I think they are preparing the ground to immediately jump from nuclear warhead to nuclear ICBM having built the pathway over the last 10 years. One day we wake up and immediately Iran becomes nuclear warhead ICBM country overnight.

 

[Shawnee]

w78 is pretty much advance , I doubt Iran in its first try if decide to go that route will be able to make something with that yield in that small package

70s technology
Iran working since 1988 with Borji on miniaturization.
NK has W78 class available too.

That's what I figure, even in the thousands, their is still not much usefulness in this unless they are nuclear missiles. Then you have Russia-China level of deterrence on a mass scale.

I just don't see the conventional purpose of this when the only target would be the US.


As Shadihassan28 said, even if you produce 3000 of these, you will not change the course of a war with them, and the consequences would be severe. IRBMs make sense to target airbases like Diego Garcia.

The USA has full control of the escalation ladder. The ladder peaks at nuclear ICBMs which is a capability Iran must have in order to have full deterrence against the USA. For example, conventional attack on Boeing factories or other military factories, Pentagon etc... would likely result in heavy strategic bombing on military and civilian infrastructure unseen probably since Tokyo in 1945.

Main load should be nonconventional.

Conventional payload can also be used tactically and rarely and backed by nonconventional payload if deniability is absent.

Second strike capability comes ahead of nuclear technology and mobilization is key to second strike capability.
Midgets are good at this.

 

[shadihassan28]

That's what I figure, even in the thousands, their is still not much usefulness in this unless they are nuclear missiles. Then you have Russia-China level of deterrence on a mass scale.

I just don't see the conventional purpose of this when the only target would be the US.


As Shadihassan28 said, even if you produce 3000 of these, you will not change the course of a war with them, and the consequences would be severe. IRBMs make sense to target airbases like Diego Garcia.

The USA has full control of the escalation ladder. The ladder peaks at nuclear ICBMs which is a capability Iran must have in order to have full deterrence against the USA. For example, conventional attack on Boeing factories or other military factories, Pentagon etc... would likely result in heavy strategic bombing on military and civilian infrastructure unseen probably since Tokyo in 1945.

Personally I think they are preparing the ground to immediately jump from nuclear warhead to nuclear ICBM having built the pathway over the last 10 years. One day we wake up and immediately Iran becomes nuclear warhead ICBM country overnight.

Honestly in a war America wins, in a long drawn out battle that last 10 to 20 year’s American people don’t really care for that but raining hell down on countries or people that think they can win by killing a few thousand Americans than they will say burn it all down, the pretense of civility would be thrown out the window. Let Iran have a deterrent, I just really hope none of us see a nuclear war.

 

[TheImmortal]

Whatever engines that Q-120 is using dwarfs Q-100

To be able to put a satellite into 36K km orbit means massive engines.

Salman took weak to be a viable second stage ICBM engine. There must be another engine that will replace it for Q-110.

Even Rafaee will likely be replaced in Q-120 1st stage