Featured Hybrid Warfare and Challenges For Pakistan

[ghazi52]

Indian hybrid warfare: The threat is real

The false allegations that Pakistan is a terrorist sponsor state has been one of the longstanding notions developed by India and transmitted via targeted misinformation

Syed Zain Jaffery

8:27 PM | June 30, 2020

Hybrid warfare in conflict studies is a developing but undefined concept, which utilizes unconventional approaches as part of multi-sphere warfighting tactics. These approaches are designed to destabilize and disable the activities of an adversary without kinetic means. Hybrid warfare menuevers through social or psycological components which could be employed under conventional warfare, irregular warfare and cyber warfare with other operating approaches such as fake news, diplomacy, and electoral interference.

The term “political warfare” is also commonly referred to hybrid warfare as the power used to attain national objectives in the absence of armed conflict. Political warfare is also the engagement of all the means at a nation’s command, short of war, to achieve its national objectives. As per existing literature, hybrid warfare can be elaborated as an amalgamation of traditional military approach, unconventional means, economic exploitation and information war. The most prominent hybrid war was waged by the United States against Russia and China by adopting strategies i.e. “containment” or “constructive engagement.” The contemporary approach of Russia towards Ukraine is also an illustration of this form of warfare.

In hybrid warfare, the target state's media is often used as the most effective method to cause desperation, confusion and resentment among the general public. The aggressor can manipulate existing internal fault lines such as ethnic/religious extremism, crumbling economy and insurgencies. The perpetrator could fuel political turmoil to avoid national policies being formulated and implemented by the target state. To isolate the rival state globally, robust diplomatic lobbying can be employed to produce desirable results and the belligerent can exploit weak diplomatic channels of target state to damage/deprecate its positive initiatives/efforts. Subversive actions can also be utilized through proxy forces and non-state entities inside the target state to politically undermine law and order while turning the target into an unstable society. Belligerent could exploit its leverage on foreign financial institutions to establish circumstances that further economically degrade the rival by paving the way for such financial institutions to seize over the target state's national assets.


In the context of South Asian regional stability, the current security situation indicates the use of hybrid warfare against Pakistan. Throughout the last two decades, especially since it became a nuclear power, Pakistan is in the midst of hybrid warfare. When Pakistan demonstrated its nuclear capability in 1998, along with powerful conventional military preparedness, New Delhi found it difficult to coerce Islamabad through direct conflict. So India shifted its policy towards hybrid tactics against Pakistan. India is exploiting socio-ethnic and religious fault lines in Pakistan while propagating against every effort leading towards national cohesion. In this regards, the doctrine of Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval reflects the hybrid warfare ambitions of India against Pakistan. India has a history of instigating proxies against Pakistan, but the indirect vilest approach was adopted by Ajit Doval in the public domain when he was nominated as National Security Advisor.

A prominent YouTube video of Mr. Ajit is a perfect manifestation of India’s intentions to wage hybrid war against Pakistan. He elaborated his doctrine as an engagement with the enemy at three levels, defensive, defensive-offensive and offensive. While classifying Pakistan as an Indian enemy, Mr. Ajit advocated an extensive range of clandestine actions against Pakistan i.e. isolating Pakistan internationally OR aiding Tehreek Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to create internal security of Pakistan chaotic. He is of the view that India should use the Taliban as a prevalent vulnerability against Pakistan. The latest exposure of the spy network following the arrest of RAW agent Kulbhushan Yadav by Pakistani security agencies reveals that rules of engagement have been changed. Whereas, the primary purpose of Pakistan-specific land warfare doctrine – declassified by the Indian Army in 2018 – was to initiate the hybrid nature of wars through modernization and integration of the armed forces. The persistence of the terrorist attacks in Balochistan as well as the emerging military strategies of India are proofs that Doval doctrine is functioning at full throttle.


The mainstream media has less often publicized that India is persistently involved in a proxy war against Pakistan, which is an efficient tactic of indirect engagement. New Delhi has been wagging a proxy war against Islamabad through Kabul especially at a time when NATO forces are almost ready to depart. Pakistan on many occasions has provided sufficient evidence to Indian authorities, about Indian covert support in several terrorist acts. Former United States Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hagel, has also indicated that India is using Afghan soil to finance the problems for Pakistan. These Indian infiltrations in Pakistan are a prominent feature of hybrid warfare as Webster G. Tarpley, a prominent US based analyst revealed that “the chosen strategy is to massively export the Afghan civil war into Pakistan and beyond, fracturing Pakistan along ethnic lines.”

The false allegations that Pakistan is a terrorist sponsor state has been one of the longstanding notions developed by India and transmitted via targeted misinformation. India is persistently creating opportunities for false flag operations such as the Indian parliament bombing, Mumbai crisis of 2008, Pathankot attack in 2016 and Pulwama incident of 2019. As a result of India's falsified propaganda campaigns, misinformation and diplomatic efforts, Pakistan was placed on the FATF grey list. Recently, India has circulated another fake news about the terrorist attack in Sri Lanka, alleging that Pakistani-based terrorists had carried it out. This claim was subsequently refused by global terror expert of Sri Lankan origin and confirmed that terrorists had infiltrated and coordinated through Indian soil.

While the government of Pakistan is well aware of the threat of Indian Hybrid warfare and taking appropriate safeguard, it is the right time for Pakistan’s policymakers to adopt a more practical and proactive approach for the formulation of a cohesive strategy to counter Indian hybrid tactics. The government of Pakistan should conduct a self-evaluation of critical functions and weaknesses across all segments, especially related to international narrative building, and maintain it regularly. There is a need to institute and entrench a procedure to lead and coordinate a national approach of self-assessment and threat analysis.

Military leadership has already acknowledged that Pakistan confronts a hybrid war as the adversary tries to manipulate many of its financial, economic and political fault lines. In the changing pattern of Hybrid warfare, Pakistan must prepare itself at all levels of policy, doctrine, strategy and operations.


https://nation.com.pk/30-Jun-2020/indian-hybrid-warfare-the-threat-is-real

 

[ghazi52]

21st century has morphed into hybrid warfare: Gen Nadeem

CJCSC remarks while addressing participants of Navy Staff Course at Pakistan Navy War College in Lahore


June 30, 2020

General Nadeem Raza addresses the participants of Navy Staff Course. PHOTO: ISPR

General Nadeem Raza, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC), discussed the changing world order and hybrid warfare during his visit at the Pakistan Navy War College in Lahore on Tueday.


The CJCSC address to the participants of Navy Staff Course was mainly fcused on evolving global order and national security challenges peculiar to South Asia, a statement issued by the Pakistan Navy said.

"[Gen Nadeem] highlighted the increasingly fluid regional environment shaped by a dynamic mix of great power competition and Indian hegemonic aspirations," the communique added.

The warfare of 21st century has evolved and morphed into hybrid warfare or grey zone conflicts, he said while describing it as "a blend of subversion, terrorism and irregular warfare".

The CJCSC also paid a tribute to the Pakistan Navy, saying it has a proud history of valour and sacrifices. "As a vibrant force, the Pakistan Navy has always come up to the expectations of the nation in defending maritime frontiers of Pakistan."

General Nadeem was received by Commandant Pakistan Navy War College Rear Admiral Muhammad Zubair Shafique upon his arrival at the varsity.

He also laid wreath at the Yadgar-e-Shuhada and offered Fateha.

 

[mudas777]

India was fighting the 5th generation war against Pakistan for a long time but our corrupt politicians were too busy looting so obviously their priorities were elsewhere. When IK came into power he was naïve he only realised when India was trying to drop us deep into the FTAF gutter. Better late then never but now its our time to respond in kind and show our kindness with the outmost respect to fascist Modi.

 

[Dalit]

India could not have spread this myth without Western and US backing. The West is also complicit in brandishing Pakistan a terrorist state. Their media mouthpieces and deep states have aided Indian narrative against Pakistan.

 

[ghazi52]

India’s Hybrid War against Pakistan

By

Muhammad Bilal


Hybrid Warfare is a military strategy that employs political warfare and composites conventional warfare, irregular warfare and cyber warfare with other influencing methods such as fake news, diplomacy, and electoral intervention.

Hybrid warfare is a new challenge that Pakistan is facing and is linked with the exploitation of identity issues especially in tribal areas which were recently merged with Khyber Pakhtunkhawa province. Hybrid Warfare can be defined as externally provoked identity conflicts, which exploit historical, ethnic, religious, socio-economic and geographic difference within geostrategic transit states through the phased transition from color revolutions to unconventional warfare to disrupt, control, or influence multipolar transnational connective infrastructure projects by the means of regime tweaking, regime change or regime reboot. Such wars are supported by external powers to fuel identity conflicts such as Pashtun Tahafuz Movement, provoking Baluchistan insurgency or terrorism in whole Pakistan.

In Pakistan, India is actively involved in exploiting these fault lines since 1947 and Pakistan lost thousands of citizens and security persons due to Indian conspiracies. This type of conflicts are fuelled which are a combination of natural and synthetic reasons and these conflicts pre-exist almost within every single country in the world with different intensity, but these conflicts do not catalyze political change unless external actors support or aggravation is present and India is working constantly to create such divisions.

Indian intelligence agencies are actively involved in destabilizing Pakistan recently caught an Indian intelligence agent commander Kulbhushan, he revealed during interrogations Indian Hybrid war plans against Pakistan. Baluchistan issue is an example of India’s hybrid warfare against Pakistan, which has been evolving from time to time, a recent wave of suicide attacks by Baloch separatists and attack on Chinese embassy depicts India’s intention to disrupt CPEC in Baluchistan in future. Different external actors are also involved in destabilizing Pakistan such as America and western countries and some Arab countries also fund separatists in Baluchistan and harbor them.

This problem is not only in Pakistan but every single country is vulnerable to at least one of five identity indicators that are historical, ethnic, religious, socio-economic and geo-graphic.

In Pakistan’s security dynamics external actors constantly try to provoke these fault lines. These above-mentioned identity indicators do not have to be active anywhere but the ground for exploitation exists, which in some cases could then be manipulated by others to create artificial conflicts, historical differences which every country has, these might relate to old political rivalries between groups or to recently acquired territory. Then there are ethnic and religious issues, which are between or within different groups, while socio-economic issues also emerge due to inequality and systematic economic and institutional challenges and in the end there, are identity differences.

Geographic differences are further divided into physical and political. People living in Baluchistan for instance usually have a different identity than those living in the Punjab or Kashmir and the same goes for politics. At the moment our nation is at externally provoked identity conflict in geostrategic transit states. Pakistan is a multicultural and multi-ethnic state and we need to take measures to tackle such threats.

Hybrid wars are just tactically defended against through democratic institutions and inclusive patriotism, but also through advanced knowledge about how they function and what they entail, so the more awareness among citizens less potential recruiters for foreign hostile actors. And also if citizens are educated and aware of hybrid warfare, then there are fewer chances of success of foreign agendas. Unity is a killer of identity conflicts and Pakistan must promote it with full force, if the whole society is aware of hybrid warfare and about its functioning then there are quite fewer chances of damage in case of crucial times.

Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval’s doctrine indicates India’s hybrid warfare ambitions against Pakistan. The doctrine envisages engaging the enemy at three levels, defensive, defensive-offensive and offensive. The offensive-defensive mode requires going into Pakistan and tackling the problem where it originated which is a fabrication. As his infamous statement is on record in which he said that you do one Mumbai you may lose Baluchistan and further said that India will unconventionally use conventional means to achieve its goals which are part of hybrid warfare. So the hybrid war already has been waged against Pakistan especially in Baluchistan where India is fuelling the fire. Pakistan requires a credible response by formulating offensive rules of engagement toward all hostile nations especially India and our future national security measures require a major up-gradation on all fronts of war ranging from conventional modernization, cybersecurity to offensive actions against enemies of Pakistan beyond borders by whatever means required.


https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/04/15/indias-hybrid-war-against-pakistan/

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Hybrid warfare is best waged by the "hybrid" folks...

When the real "manly" warfare arrives they release their loads and flee away like LGBTs...

 

[ghazi52]

Hybrid War and Challenges For Pakistan

The world has changed. Wars are fought no more on battlegrounds but with touches of buttons and turnings of knobs. Hybrid warfare has revolutionized the arena where every country exhausts all possible means without even moving.


Brig Basit Shuja SI(M)-Retd
-

“The categories of warfare are blurring and no longer fit into neat, tidy boxes. One can expect to see more tools and tactics of destruction – from the sophisticated to the simple – being employed simultaneously in hybrid and more complex forms of warfare”, Robert M. Gates, Former U.S. Secretary of Defence.

Conflict is inherent to the structure of the international paradigm, a construct of state system and composition of human society. The nature of wars resulting from this conflict has remained constant as a political and social phenomenon, however, the character of war continues to transform from kinetic to non-kinetic, conventional to sub-conventional or combination of the two with evolving technological and societal evolution.


Pakistan today faces a host of kinetic and non-kinetic threats due to its politico-ideological leanings and geographic location. Major kinetic threats to Pakistan take their roots from the East. While other actors also generate threats, which include non-state actors, hostile states and agencies. Major non-kinetic threats to our security include information operations, ethno-sectarian divide.


Hybrid Warfare require a different perspective than what we have applied so far on the other forms of warfare


The non-traditional threats to our security include natural disasters, climate change, and population growth which if not managed can have a huge impact on the security and stability of the country. Hybrid war is considered a decentralized form of warfare characterized by blurred lines between war and politics, combatants and civilians besides being a long term and complex affair.

Given the rate at which change in warfare is accelerating, it is reasonable to accept that Hybrid Warfare is considered a military strategy that blends conventional, irregular and Cyber Warfare and is a consequence of new technologies like nanotechnology, coupled with an indirect political approach. Hybrid Warfare requires a different perspective than what we have applied so far on the other forms of warfare.

Hybrid warfare is an extension of Asymmetrical and Insurgent Warfare, whereby the enemy uses all means, conventional and unconventional tactics. It includes political, religious and social causes; incorporates information operations campaigns (internet and 24 hours news cycle) can be conducted by the organization or un-organized groups; maybe nation state-led or non-nation state led to disrupt and defeat opponents in order to achieve their will.

Hybrid warfare is manifested as under

– Media of the target state is used as the most effective weapon to inflict hopelessness, uncertainty and frustration among the masses.

– Existing internal fault lines of the target state like sectarian/ethnic extremism, weak economy, separatist movements and illiteracy can be exploited by the aggressor.

– Political instability is fuelled by the aggressor to refrain the target state from formulating and implementing national policies.

– In order to globally isolate the target state, strong lobbying is resorted to generate exterior maneuvers and exploit the weak diplomacy of target state to degrade/denounce its positive initiatives/efforts.

– Proxy warfare and non-states actors are used to carryout subversive activities inside target state in order to economically choke, disrupt law and order situation and to turn the target into a terror-stricken state.

– Aggressor uses its influence on international financial institutions to create conditions for provision of maximum amount of loans to the target state to further weaken it economically or it ensures imposition of strict sanctions on target state in order to create frustration amongst the masses and pave way to overtaking of target state’s national assets by said financial institutions.

Recently a European news agency has exposed, how Indian influence public perception on Pakistan by multiplying iterations of the same content available on search engines worldwide. For this purpose 265 fake websites that have been were being used to proliferate Indian malicious propaganda against Pakistan and several domestic media outlets would easily be swept away by it.

Conflict is inherent to the structure of the international paradigm, a construct of state system and composition of human society

Once a EU news agency has exposed it, we mustn’t lose the opportunity to put India on back foot:

First step is general awakening followed by sharing this news to maximum Pakistanis at home and abroad particularly in Europe and USA etc. They can be effectively utilised by our diplomatic missions to apprise the host governments and their public to neutralise the effects of Indian propaganda.

Law is an important component of Hybrid warfare. Government of Pakistan must file a defamation law suit against India in EU court. PTA-Ministry of Information-Law Ministry and Foreign Office must also prepare a case and write to twitter Facebook, Google and all search engine managements to block all fake accounts involved in baseless propaganda against Pakistan.

There is a requirement of stringent media regulations especially against the disinformation and fake news contents that promote chaos and instability. Our TV channel owners should be persuaded to dedicate some airtime, other than useless and endless domestic politics, against Indian propaganda warfare also.

Ministry of Information at the same time must get articles published in English National and international print media to expose Indian sinister game and bring the facts to limelight. Indians are using instruments like yoga, Indian cuisine Bollywood films and music etc to create “peaceful” “soft” image of India. After 9/11 they adopted European imagery and film making techniques.

Law is an important component of Hybrid warfare. Government of Pakistan must file a defamation law suit against India in EU court

There is also a consented effort to send Indian doctors, nurses and IT professionals to work in Europe. There is a need to build Pakistan’s soft image also and have icons that can represent Pakistan at global forums. Unfortunately branches of our political parties abroad can play decisive role but their management is in the hands of those who can’t communicate effectively due to lack of language skills.

Our political parties must address this grey area and leadership abroad should be entrusted to educated, enlightened and progressive Pakistanis who have a world view and can act as good ambassadors of the country. Sustained social media campaign must be launched to present soft image of Pakistan while exposing plight of minorities and rising tide of Hindutva in India

Remember: Media centric Hybrid warfare is a reality and we as a nation has to fight this challenge otherwise history acts savagely with the nations which don’t prepare and rise to their existential challenges.

Brig Basit Shuja SI(M)-Retd has done masters in international relations from University of Karachi. He has a vast and assorted experience of kinetic and non-kinetic operations during his over three decades of military service in Pakistan Army. The retired officer is currently working in the corporate sector.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Global Village Space.

 

[ghazi52]

Hybrid warfare: Strategic coercion against Pakistan

Ikram Sehgal
-
March 5, 2019

While a globalized world was a cherished goal to bring people together, globalization is increasingly used by one or the other country or group of countries to dominate the rest of the world by a violent process. Looking around we see wars in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yemen where the powers that be are trying to bend the power game towards themselves. Conventional wars are now more often not supplemented by ‘hybrid wars’ that are now engulfing the world.


The Hybrid warfare strategy employs economic, political and diplomatic tools like sanctions and interference in the political process of a country, blends the conventional warfare, irregular and warfare by arming opposition groups and cyber warfare as well using other methods, such as fake news, distorted news, social media and subversive acts of intelligence services.

These tools of hybrid warfare that combine different spheres of influence –that have become possible in the wake of technological development– are used in combination with each other applied simultaneously and adapted to the given situation in time and space. What seems especially dangerous for a country like Pakistan is the fact that terrorism has been utilized as an element of this kind of warfare.



Pakistan’s decision to wind up our involvement with terrorism and the support for peace initiatives in Afghanistan has opened new vistas for better relations with the international community and in the region.

It is common knowledge that Osama bin Laden was an instrument of the west against the Soviets before he and his group went out of hand and created the monster of al Qaida. It is common knowledge that the US intervention in Iraq – based on false news that toppled Saddam Hussain and his Sunni-dominated army– created ISIS to counter Shia militants by utilizing the dismembered Sunni officer pool of the former Iraqi army.



Hybrid Warfare, a New Phenomenon?

Hidden interference as a method of warfare is not a new development. It has lately got momentum by new technologies like social media, big data collection through the internet and the resulting profiling of user inclinations – not only consumption-related but political profiling as well. Pakistan has been in the middle of hybrid warfare since 1980 but so far it seems that we have not been able to develop a consistent strategy to counter this situation.

The reasons for this are different; the foremost is the inclination in the subcontinent to believe in rumors and stories rather than apply rational mind, this is coupled with lack of awareness not only in all sections of public life but also public institutions of critical importance like the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Ministries of Finance and Foreign Affairs, etc.

Pakistan’s decision to wind up our involvement with terrorism and the support for peace initiatives in Afghanistan has opened new vistas for better relations with the international community and in the region. This is a positive development but it doesn’t eliminate the threats of hybrid warfare that are not only persisting but even increasing. That is why there is a dire need to develop a consistent strategy to counter hybrid warfare attacks on Pakistan. How to achieve this?



Restore Trust

There is an obvious need to create awareness about the fact of hybrid warfare among the population and the state institutions of Pakistan. This kind of warfare is not fought by the army or the security forces alone, but it needs the awareness and action of all of us. For that, there is a need to create or restore trust in the government and the media that have to emanate true information. Lies and provocations have to be exposed and punished immediately.

The public and state institutions have to be informed about threats and aided in developing counter strategies. When computer viruses are detected that can destroy the data of private or institutional programs or when currency manipulations are detected the information needs to be shared publicly, there needs to be a warning and a counter strategy offered.

The economy remains a trump card in combatting hybrid warfare; first and foremost, it is imperative to overcome the economic constraints of the country.

This response must be delivered with speed and strength. But a basic need for that is trust in the own government, security services, and military and the currently existing trust deficit needs to be overcome. There is a need to explain to the public that the enemy is not only morally depraved but absolutely ruthless and that one should not try to make a deal for personal gains with him.


Monitoring Media

Critical weapons of hybrid warfare include “Media and Information Warfare. Control and manipulation of the information available to the civilian populace on both electronic and print media include command and control, intelligence-based electronic and psychological warfare. The ‘media reality’ dominates influence over conventional reality by creating a public perception, especially in political life. A number of media celebrities are, wittingly or otherwise, furthering the enemy cause.

They have been bought over, body and soul. The enemy has been using not only its own but also ours to influence persons (bribe, compromise, coax or threaten) to achieve its designs. In the name of freedom of information, there is a license to say anything against the State and its institutions. Moreover, the Mobile telephone companies (TELCOs) need to be better regulated and monitored by the PTA and other state agencies.

Giving permission to open banks was a dangerous initiative. A great majority of the rank and file are patriotic, are the Chief Managers loyal to the country or to their foreign bosses who pay enormous salaries and powers for their loyalties? What is the guarantee that all our data is on servers located in enemy countries?

Most of the speakers at the “Adab Literary Festival” that took place in Karachi recently spoke less about literature but mostly against the State and its institutions with no rebuttal heard from official side. Information, fake or otherwise, home-grown or imported, will have no impact unless it is accepted as fact by the masses accomplished by the timely provision of information and critical thinking; these are the antidote to “fake news and hostile propaganda.” The government should work to enhance online digital platforms that are not only monitored but ‘efficient and credible” to ensure timely provision of information for consumption by the masses and interest groups.


Identify and Fix Loopholes

When the nature of the game changes in such a fast and aggressive manner, what has to be done is to adapt to the new rules to avoid isolation, demoralization and eventual loss. Strong leadership and institutional harmony valid for substantially enhanced civil-military cooperation is the need of the time, today more than ever before. The economy remains a trump card in combatting hybrid warfare; first and foremost, it is imperative to overcome the economic constraints of the country.

It is not good enough for military leadership only to acknowledge the presence and impact of hybrid warfare, the political leadership needs to be coached about this to meet the challenge collectively.

The deprivation of underprivileged areas and populace needs to be overcome by taking certain reformative and compensatory initiatives. This is one of the loopholes where the enemy can easily ingress and exploit its ambitions. Policy inputs from the intelligentsia, academia, politicians, and strategists should be incorporated along with security and law enforcement arrangements.

Modern statecraft must familiarise itself – quickly – with alternate tools to tackle the emerging complex and unpredictable internal and external security landscape. This includes tackling internal pressure points (particularly ethnic sensitivities and civil rights issues) and to prevent their misappropriation by external elements for their own motives institutional harmony is needed today more than ever before, to be addressed candidly without playing “Politics”.

It is not good enough for military leadership only to acknowledge the presence and impact of hybrid warfare, the political leadership needs to be coached about this to meet the challenge collectively. Incorporating all the strata of our society we must strategize in proportion to the gravity of the multi-faceted threats.

Ikram Sehgal, author of “Escape from Oblivion”, is Pakistani defence analyst and security expert. He is a regular contributor of articles in newspapers that include: The News and the Urdu daily Jang. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Global Village Space’s editorial policy.

 

[Inception-06]

And what is our answer ?