Has Saudi Arabia declared "Oil Price War"?

[Chinese-Dragon]

Actually it s rather bad position to be in. Why? Because you become hopeless. I have days where I do not care about anything related with the ME and other days it's the direct opposite. I think that we can easily get pulled into those two "boxes" depending on what is going on. We should create a third "box" instead. Whatever that might be. My solution is a mixture of Islamic thoughts and Arab nationalism (not the one we knew before with socialism etc.) or call it Arab brotherhood and ideas relevant to our current world and reality. Inclusiveness, independent though, focus on education, science etc. I have explained it in detail before so I will leave it just there.

Well, I don't agree with this unless you are talking about our leaders. I think that a shared religion (Islam) by large, culture, language, literature, ancient and modern history, something as non-important as cuisine, mentality etc. is by large similar. We actually are extremely similar when you think about the fact that we are the second biggest ethnicity on earth and inhabiting a huge geographical area. If we took the best from that it could succeed easily. But the problem with that is division. I mean what can we expect when even some Islamists are waging wars against each other or secularists (liberals vs socialists etc.).

Me and @Syrian Lion agreed on much regarding the Arab world last time we discussed (outside of Syria and the role of the Iranian regime) but he seems to be a fan of socialism etc. which is totally opposite to what I stand for which is liberal-conservatism. I am not sure what emphasis he places on culture, traditions, religion, FOREIGN policy, aspirations etc. either. Other than being an Arab nationalist. Whatever it means in his case in reality I do not know? Syrian hegemony. Just an example.

Exactly. You described it very well. Although the rulers now try to become closer to the people and pamper some as they saw what happened with the "Arab spring" but my fear is that they will return to old habits as soon as the neighborhood calms down. My hope is our current generation and the next one. Status quo cannot continue. I refuse to believe this. Anyway instead of sitting in coffee shops and talking big we should do something. Or the locals at least but it is easier said than done…

You are spot on again Hazzy.

Actually that Steve guy is a clown IMO and a anti-Muslim and anti-Arab racist.

Yes, some. Unfortunately none of them have any influence in the decision making. It all boils down to those in control of the US. Do they really want the best for us Arabs and people of the ME and Muslims? Based on what they are doing then obviously not.

It's time to change to a more multipolar world.

Arabs combined or Muslims combined would be one of the strongest forces on Earth. If they can get over their divisions and band together, that could be the turning point.

 

[Falcon29]

Actually it s rather bad position to be in. Why? Because you become hopeless. I have days where I do not care about anything related with the ME and other days it's the direct opposite. I think that we can easily get pulled into those two "boxes" depending on what is going on. We should create a third "box" instead. Whatever that might be. My solution is a mixture of Islamic thoughts and Arab nationalism (not the one we knew before with socialism etc.) or call it Arab brotherhood and ideas relevant to our current world and reality. Inclusiveness, independent though, focus on education, science etc. I have explained it in detail before so I will leave it just there.

Well, I don't agree with this unless you are talking about our leaders. I think that a shared religion (Islam) by large, culture, language, literature, ancient and modern history, something as non-important as cuisine, mentality etc. is by large similar. We actually are extremely similar when you think about the fact that we are the second biggest ethnicity on earth and inhabiting a huge geographical area. If we took the best from that it could succeed easily. But the problem with that is division. I mean what can we expect when even some Islamists are waging wars against each other or secularists (liberals vs socialists etc.).

Me and @Syrian Lion agreed on much regarding the Arab world last time we discussed (outside of Syria and the role of the Iranian regime) but he seems to be a fan of socialism etc. which is totally opposite to what I stand for which is liberal-conservatism. I am not sure what emphasis he places on culture, traditions, religion, FOREIGN policy, aspirations etc. either. Other than being an Arab nationalist. Whatever it means in his case in reality I do not know? Syrian hegemony. Just an example.

Exactly. You described it very well. Although the rulers now try to become closer to the people and pamper some as they saw what happened with the "Arab spring" but my fear is that they will return to old habits as soon as the neighborhood calms down. My hope is our current generation and the next one. Status quo cannot continue. I refuse to believe this. Anyway instead of sitting in coffee shops and talking big we should do something. Or the locals at least but it is easier said than done…

You are spot on again Hazzy.

Actually that Steve guy is a clown IMO and a anti-Muslim and anti-Arab racist.

Yes, some. Unfortunately none of them have any influence in the decision making. It all boils down to those in control of the US. Do they really want the best for us Arabs and people of the ME and Muslims? Based on what they are doing then obviously not.

I don't think we can do anything without leadership. Not to mention many of our people are very confused. That picture represents it well. People have came up with so many theories and in many cases contradict their beliefs when they apply such theories to other cases. If the people there aren't going to do something about it than me and you can't cause big change. The people need a wise leader, and they also need to be wise. War is not necessary at this point, what is neccassary is intiative for change and it will start in society and once society starts to better understand things than it will produce unchangable generation. Which realize the steps needed to be taken, and right now we have minority like this, they understand but have no influence to implement. If this becomes majority then implementation process will begin. And no doubt we will be attacked by usual suspects because they refuse to respect our right to self determination. Independence in Middle East is their biggest nightmare.

 

[al-Hasani]

It's time to change to a more multipolar world.

Arabs combined or Muslims combined would be one of the strongest forces on Earth. If they can get over their divisions and band together, that could be the turning point.

Don't mind our "blabbering" here mate. We are just frustrated and want change. We are tired of the infighting, animosity, wars, conflicts, sectarianism, some of our leaders, their policies etc.

Imagine if China was participated into 22 different countries all with different policies (to some degree) and all under different influence. That's the Arab world for you currently. That's because our weakest point in history coincided with the rise of the Europeans (their strongest point in history) who are living just next door to us. You Chinese are located much further away. You can see Europe with your barren eye from the Arab world (Gibraltar passage). We were a easy pray and were not united back then. If we were united and powerful like once that would never have happened. The chaos we see now is a continuation of that period in time and it has lasted for over 100 years now, some say even significantly earlier.

You know that I am a fan of China and many Arabs are starting to become that and I believe that we have many similarities and Arab academics and also Chinese are starting to realize this and the potential of a real partnership.

See my recent posts in this thread.

GCC and China sign deal to boost cooperation | Page 4

 

[al-Hasani]

I don't think we can do anything without leadership. Not to mention many of our people are very confused. That picture represents it well. People have came up with so many theories and in many cases contradict their beliefs when they apply such theories to other cases. If the people there aren't going to do something about it than me and you can't cause big change. The people need a wise leader, and they also need to be wise. War is not necessary at this point, what is neccassary is intiative for change and it will start in society and once society starts to better understand things than it will produce unchangable generation. Which realize the steps needed to be taken, and right now we have minority like this, they understand but have no influence to implement. If this becomes majority then implementation process will begin. And no doubt we will be attacked by usual suspects because they refuse to respect our right to self determination. Independence in Middle East is their biggest nightmare.

No, behind every great people and movement there is a great leader and all of our great potential leaders are either living abroad or afraid from the consequences or serving outside interests or that of regimes. Let's use Iraq as an example. What if there was one very charismatic leader? Let's say that his mother was a Sunni and father a Shia. Would the radicals on both sides allow such a person to unite them and ultimately his country? Or outside factors? Some Arabs included?

The last thing we need is more conflict and wars. Whole generations have been wasted due to that. You Palestinians know this more than anyone else as you have not known real peace for almost 80 years. 80 years!

But how can we built a secure and the correct fundament when much of the current is destroyed or in a bad shape? That's the million dollar question.

 

[Falcon29]

No, behind every great people and movement there is a great leader and all of our great potential leaders are either living abroad or afraid from the consequences or serving outside interests or that of regimes. Let's use Iraq as an example. What if there was one very charismatic leader? Let's say that his mother was a Sunni and father a Shia. Would the radicals on both sides allow such a person to unite them and ultimately his country? Or outside factors? Some Arabs included?

The last thing we need is more conflict and wars. Whole generations have been wasted due to that. You Palestinians know this more than anyone else as you have not known real peace for almost 80 years. 80 years!

But how can we built a secure and the correct fundament when much of the current is destroyed or in a bad shape? That's the million dollar question.

Nobody wants war but you realize what it means to have United Middle East under banner of Islam. That means ports/canals/waters/natural gas will have to come under our control and you can't have a country in the region that is used by West to blackmail you and dominate the region. That country needs to go. For other countries in the region, such as Iran. It's obvious that Arabs see Iran interfering in their affairs but I don't believe it requires war if it's possible to reason with them. And that wouldn't work if we various leaderships in region.

Hasani you are confused if you believe our people will follow path of foreigners. By nature we aren't like others. You are foreseeing something unrealistic. Which is just stabilizing region than people of region go through dramatic social/ideological change. Even if that miracolousy works then what will follow? The West won't tolerate it. And you know well mindset of people in ME won't change anytime soon. And if you believe we are heading towards liberal revolution than you still can't have anti-war mindset in region everyone is competing for. This is the problem with Arabs as they become more liberal their political views become retarded and you can't count on them to secure our interests. The only possible way such unity can be achieved whilst have people secure our interests is having Sunni Islamic state. That isn't bad for minorities. It's bad for liberals since it won't match their social lifestyle. And frankly right now is not the moment to think about your lifestyle, it is a moment to achieve basic things which we have been prevented from functioning as basic society. And you have to fight for those rights.

 

[xyxmt]

West and Middle east joint effort to punish Russia for his recent acts. Plus US start pumping oil.

US shale oil producer will also be big losers along with Russian

 

[al-Hasani]

Nobody wants war but you realize what it means to have United Middle East under banner of Islam. That means ports/canals/waters/natural gas will have to come under our control and you can't have a country in the region that is used by West to blackmail you and dominate the region. That country needs to go. For other countries in the region, such as Iran. It's obvious that Arabs see Iran interfering in their affairs but I don't believe it requires war if it's possible to reason with them. And that wouldn't work if we various leaderships in region.

Hasani you are confused if you believe our people will follow path of foreigners. By nature we aren't like others. You are foreseeing something unrealistic. Which is just stabilizing region than people of region go through dramatic social/ideological change. Even if that miracolousy works then what will follow? The West won't tolerate it. And you know well mindset of people in ME won't change anytime soon. And if you believe we are heading towards liberal revolution than you still can't have anti-war mindset in region everyone is competing for. This is the problem with Arabs as they become more liberal their political views become retarded and you can't count on them to secure our interests. The only possible way such unity can be achieved whilst have people secure our interests is having Sunni Islamic state. That isn't bad for minorities. It's bad for liberals since it won't match their social lifestyle. And frankly right now is not the moment to think about your lifestyle, it is a moment to achieve basic things which we have been prevented from functioning as basic society. And you have to fight for those rights.

I am not talking about any wars mate. All I ask for is better leadership, more unity and a more independent policy. My dislike for the Iranian regime is bound in their negative meddling and influence in the Arab world. Nothing more and nothing less. They could be the biggest enemy of the US or their best allies. My opinion would not change for that reason.

You misunderstood me. Please reread my posts. I am not talking about following any foreigners. I was talking about the necessity for us Arabs uniting and creating our own future on our own promises. As much as this is possible.

I am a conservative person by nature and a practicing Muslim. Yet I believe that even a country like KSA which is based on Islamic law should change on certain fronts. Yet I am also a proponent of a more inclusive policy and of independent thinking. I think that Islamists need to reform some of their thoughts. Everyone should.

I don't stand in the camp of regimes or MB or such organizations. I am more in the middle. Liking things among both and disliking things among both parties.

What I meant with liberal was the economic policy and foreign alliances/ties.

But yes, it's hard not to get confused/hopeless sometimes. I can't hide that.

 

[HAIDER]

US shale oil producer will also be big losers along with Russian

US govt knows how to manage , US and Brits own all middle eastern oil companies. Caltex,Mobile,Texaco,Amoco etc etc.....and also banks who wheel n deal with transactions.

 

[Mosamania]

this would happen if the price drop remain this way do you think that GCC can keep the prices low for a year or two ?

Its a Mexican stand off basically.

 

[Mahmoud_EGY]

Its a Mexican stand off basically.

low oil prices are good news to Egypt and most of the world anyway

 

[Azeri440]

That's your perception , but world perceive it different way .

"Lower oil prices could have lots of knock-on effects around the world. Take Russia, which depends on oil sales to bring in foreign currency. The Russian government has set its three-year budget with the expectation that oil prices would stay at $100 per barrel. A sustained fall in prices could seriously hurt the Russian economy and drive up deficits. (Note that Russia's economy was already teetering near recession territorythanks to a recent round of Western sanctions.)"

do you understand the difference between oil and gas?
the main export to Europe is gas.

 

[HAIDER]

do you understand the difference between oil and gas?
the main export to Europe is gas.

lolzzz.....read this hope you understand, if not ask me again and explain you better.

Is Russia The World's Largest Oil Producer? It All Depends On Whom You Ask - Forbes

How low can it go? Oil, gas prices in freefall as OPEC reels from US fracking | Fox News

 

[SvenSvensonov]

lolzzz.....read this hope you understand, if not ask me again and explain you better.

Is Russia The World's Largest Oil Producer? It All Depends On Whom You Ask - Forbes

Can you find more up to date figures on Russian oil production? The article you provided is dated
11/20/2012... hardly relevant today.

 

[rmi5]

I don't believe in any conspiracy theories, like a secret deal between west and GCC to put Iran and Russia under pressure. Oil prices are going down mainly because of decreasing demand in the market and China's economic boost slowly hitting a straight line. I won't comment on Russia, but I'm sure it won't have any significant impact on Iran, because we exported nearly half of what we are exporting now 2 years ago and nothing went different much.


What a brilliant logic, so U.S is going to mess up it's energy security's main factor, the Shale oil, in order to please GCC or 'getting Iran down'? You have basically written what you have wished for, not what is happening in reality.

U.S is about to become an oil exporter and losing shale oil market means getting back to days which reminds them of dark 1973 days and they won't lose that leverage only to put Iran under pressure, especially when it's certain that nothing important will happen for Iran.


By the way, GCC and KSA especially, are exporting oil tens of times more than Iran and naturally, they are losing billions of dollars more than Iran with current prices. They may not need that money now, but still it's a money that is never going to come back, a money that they may desperately need in not a so distant future.

PS: This table may help understanding the situation a bit more:

View attachment 158134

This table is misleading, because many of the non-oil revenue of the Iranian government, are coming from petrochemical companies, and also liquid gas exports, which the price of their products is closely connected to oil.

 

[rmi5]

@LeveragedBuyout - Bloomberg is reporting that only 4% of US shale production needs $80 per barrel to be profitable, while the rest requires only an average of $42, often lower, to remain profitable. Do you see OPEC winning this fight and driving US shale into the ground? I don't as new technology lowers shale costs, and even if price declines topple some producers, when the prices rise again US shale will resume pumping large volumns. I don't see OPEC winning this fight.

Oil in New Era as OPEC Refuses to Yield to U.S. Shale - Bloomberg

about a decade ago, it was not cost efficient to produce oil from shale for below 120$ dollars, then it dropped to 70$ per barrel, and now it is about 40$. it is a very interesting improvement.