Emerging Drought conditions in the Country

[Gin ka Pakistan]

Dated: 16th January, 2010
Advisory: Emerging Drought conditions in the Country

Most parts of the country are experiencing extremely dry conditions mainly due to the prevailing El-Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The El-Nino Conditions which developed in June, 2009, and suppressed Pakistan Monsoon rainfall by about 30%, are likely to continue till next summer.
Since the end of monsoon season, which too was deficient, most parts of the country, except some areas of Central & North Balochistan, have not received any significant rain fall.
Drought generally occurs in the following three stages.

(i) Meteorological Drought occurs when rainfall is below 40% of the expected rainfall in any area for an extended period.
Most parts of the country are under severe Meteorological drought conditions because no appreciable rainfall has occurred during the last four months

(ii) Hydrological Drought occurs when there is a sustained deficit in surface runoff below normal conditions.
The country is experiencing hydrological drought conditions because the availability of surface water in major reservoirs have aggravated due to 30% below normal rains during monsoon and persistent long dry spell afterwards. since temperatures in catchment areas have already reached at freezing level, so no significant improvements in the reservoirs is expected during coming weeks.
Tarbela Dam:
Water level in Tarbela is presently 131 feet below the maximum conservation level, indicating that only 0.994 m.a.f. live water storage is available against dam live capacity of 9.30 m.a.f.
Mangla Dam:
Water level in mangla is presently 128 feet below the maximum conservation level, indicating that only 0.4 m.a.f. live water storage is available against dam live capacity of 4.82 m.a.f. Comparison at last 10 year's data indicates that water situation is similar to the drought year of 2002.
Inflows in Rawal, Khanpur and Simly Dams are also diminishing that may lead to shortage in urban areas because the rainfall in catchment areas is likely to remain below normal.

(iii) Agricultural Drought occurs when rainfall amount and distribution, soil water reserves and evaporation losses combine to start effecting crops.
After crossing two stages of drought i.e. meteorological and hydrological drought the country is now entering the emerging agricultural drought stages.
Barani areas of the country which are already experiencing crops failure, are under severe agricultural drought.
In the face of diminishing irrigation water, irrigated plain areas are also likely to come under emerging agriculture drought condition.
According to the prevailing meteorological conditions, the cold and dry weather conditions are likely to continue for another week and significantly below normal (30%) winter rains are predicted during the month of January and February in most parts of the country.
In the present scenario of worsening drought condition in the country, judicious use of available water resources and efficient agriculture/irrigation practices are advised.

(Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry)
Director General, PMD



Government of Pakistan

 

[Gin ka Pakistan]

Proposals sought to deal with drought-like situation
LAHORE: The country is faced with a famine-like situation because of ongoing shortage of water in the rivers.

According to sources, the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) is reconsidering its current Water Management Plan to deal with drought-like situation for the next Rabi crops.

During the last one year, the water level in Indus River has dropped to one-third level, due to which it is feared that the country will have to brace an agricultural dearth this year.

In view of this situation, the IRSA has asked the Met department for details of possible dearth during the next 6 months.

In addition, the IRS has also called a meeting of its Advisory Committee so that the current Water Management Plan could be reconsidered to handle the prevailing water shortage.

The sources told that the IRSA had to close Chashma, Jehlum, Taunsa and Pajnad canals over water shortage previous year but the situation is even more alarming this year, which needs emergency measures.

The Met office said that country has entered the third phase of drought this year, which could affect the cultivation, leading to a dearth-like situation.

Proposals sought to deal with drought-like situation - GEO.tv

 

[Gin ka Pakistan]

Dated: 25th January, 2010 Drought Advisory: UPDATE


Scattered Winter Rain on 28th & 29th Predicted: MET OFFICE

Expected to Improve Fog in Punjab

First Winter Rain in upper parts of the country is expected on 28th & 29th January, 2010 after about 4-month of dry period.

A westerly weather system is expected to approach Balochistan on 27th and after giving some scattered rainfall in Balochistan it

would extend to other upper parts of the country including upper parts of Punjab and Islamabad.



Kashmir and Northern areas are also expected to receive rainfall/ snowfall during the above mentioned period.



These rains are expected, to some extent, help in alleviating the emerging drought conditions and in improving the dense fog

conditions in Punjab.



As far as the El-Nino phenomena, in Pacific Ocean, suppressing our rainfall is concerned, it after reaching a peak is now expected

to decrease gradually and neutralize sometime in early summer.



The winter rains in the country, as predicated earlier, are expected to remain about 30% below normal. Judicious use of available






(Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry)

Director General, PMD

 

[Gin ka Pakistan]

Mashallah Scattered Winter Rain on 28th & 29th Predicted: MET OFFICE Alhamdulillah

 

[SekrutYakhni]

Don't worry guys!


Wait for sometime!

Cheers

 

[DESERT FIGHTER]

Well wait till saffron bandits dry all our rivers maybe then zardari will show some spine.

 

[RiazHaq]

It is sad to see the growing water crisis in Pakistan whose Indus Valley has been the center of some of the world’s greatest civilizations: Harappa and Mohenjo Daro (2600 to 1900 BC) and Gandhara, (1st-5th Centuries AD); their social, agricultural and economic systems were based on their interactions with rivers (Indus and its tributaries, including the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej and Kabul rivers, etc.) which provided irrigation and created fertile land for farming. Archaeologists believe that people of Mohenjo-Daro and Harappa lived in sturdy brick houses that had as many as three floors. The houses had bathrooms that were connected to sewers. Their elaborate drainage system was centuries ahead of their time. A well established history, tradition and system of water management and entitlements has existed, from the Indus Valley Civilization to the 1960 Indus Water Treaty and the 1991 Water Accord which establish clear entitlements for each province and for each canal command to surface waters.

Pakistan is facing a severe water shortage this year. According to a 2006 World Bank report, the country is fast moving from being a “water stressed country to a water scarce country”, mainly due to its high population growth, and water is becoming the key development issue. The groundwater is over-exploited and polluted in many areas; most of the water infrastructure (even some of the major barrages) is in poor repair; the entire system of water management is not financially sustainable. However, large parts of Pakistan have good soils, sunshine and excellent farmers; it can get much more value from the existing flows.

Haq's Musings: World Water Day: Water Scarce Pakistan?

 

[SekrutYakhni]

Well wait till saffron bandits dry all our rivers maybe then zardari will show some spine.

No...I am not saying Zardari will do something...

I just said wait..
Believe in nature..
you will see something significant soon...

 

[no_name]

Harappa and Mohenjo Daro (2600 to 1900 BC) [/url]

I've heard that the vanishing of these cultures are partly due to encroaching desert and water scarcity.

regard

 

[SekrutYakhni]

Rain and snow fall was recorded in certain areas of Pakistan!
As I told..
wait more..
we will see....

 

[SekrutYakhni]

Rain in Islamabad and Rawalpindi!

Wait more..


more rain and snowfall...

tell me if you want more rain...

now lets see what happens in India!

 

[Hutchroy]

It is sad to see the growing water crisis in Pakistan whose Indus Valley has been the center of some of the world’s greatest civilizations: Harappa and Mohenjo Daro (2600 to 1900 BC) and Gandhara, (1st-5th Centuries AD); their social, agricultural and economic systems were based on their interactions with rivers (Indus and its tributaries, including the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej and Kabul rivers, etc.) which provided irrigation and created fertile land for farming. Archaeologists believe that people of Mohenjo-Daro and Harappa lived in sturdy brick houses that had as many as three floors. The houses had bathrooms that were connected to sewers. Their elaborate drainage system was centuries ahead of their time. A well established history, tradition and system of water management and entitlements has existed, from the Indus Valley Civilization to the 1960 Indus Water Treaty and the 1991 Water Accord which establish clear entitlements for each province and for each canal command to surface waters.

Pakistan is facing a severe water shortage this year. According to a 2006 World Bank report, the country is fast moving from being a “water stressed country to a water scarce country”, mainly due to its high population growth, and water is becoming the key development issue. The groundwater is over-exploited and polluted in many areas; most of the water infrastructure (even some of the major barrages) is in poor repair; the entire system of water management is not financially sustainable. However, large parts of Pakistan have good soils, sunshine and excellent farmers; it can get much more value from the existing flows.

Haq's Musings: World Water Day: Water Scarce Pakistan?

Please read the following :

Water shortage greatest threat to Pakistan: bok

The book points out that Pakistan’s water situation is extremely precarious. Water availability has plummeted from about 5,000 cubic metres per capita in the early 1950s to less than 1,500 per capita today.

It shows that Pakistan's per capita water availability is now a little less than One Third what it was in the early 1950s.

However the Pakistani Population is now Five to Six times what it was in the 1950s and as such it is the huge increase of Population that has caused the reduction of the per capita availability of Water in Pakistan.

With the increase in its population the decrease in Pakistan's per capita water availability would normally now be about 800-1000 cubic metres.

Thus the reason for the drop in Pakistan's per capita water availability is due to the Increase in its Population adn has got nothing to do with the "saffron brigade".

In the same period India's population has gone up by about three and a half times.

 

[DESERT FIGHTER]

Thank indians for violating indus treaty and building illegal dams like buglihar and stealing OUR WATER

 

[SekrutYakhni]

Thank indians for violating indus treaty and building illegal dams like buglihar and stealing OUR WATER

Does not matter bro!
Wait and see what happens!

 

[Gin ka Pakistan]

Mashallah More Rain Predicted in the Country during 5th to 8th February: MET OFFICE

Many parts of the country are expected to receive good winter rains and snowfall (over the mountains) during 5th to 8th February, 2010. This weather system would help in alleviating the emerging drought conditions in the country.

A westerly weather system is expected to approach Balochistan from the late evening of 4th February and after giving some scattered rainfall in Balochistan it would extend to other parts of the country including Punjab and Islamabad, NWFP, Northern Areas, Kashmir and parts of Sindh.

Kashmir and Northern Areas are expected to receive at times heavy rainfall/snowfall during the above mentioned period.

Winter rainfall during February is likely to remain better than that of previous months. The above predicted rains would be very useful for Rabi crops and good for water resources.

During December and January the rainfall remains largely below normal on country level it was around 50% below normal.

(Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry)

Director General, PMD

Alhamdulillah