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Desperate Time Desperate Measures - A differential view of Pakistan's Economic

The Accountant

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I am starting a series of threads to discuss Economic Problems of Pakistan along with the solutions. My approach will be different in the sense it will not be based on traditional view of economy but focused on more practical areas of the economy specially the trade and commerce.

The most important point I would like to focus on; I am not an economic expert but a mere student of business and commerce. The issues I will be raising here will be based on my own limited practical exposure in various industries. Therefore all learned fellows are welcome to share their views and experiences and feel free to correct me where they feel I am wrong.

In this first thread I will try to present my own introductory view of the economy in general and economy of Pakistan in particular from a non-conventional point of view understandable to a layman as well ...

Economy is measurement of a country's resources produced in particular time period generally an year. We have various tools of measuring economy but the most common tool is GDP. Economists use different methods of computation of GDP, the most common method is the expenditure approach (by combining all expenses in the economy) having the formula as follows:

GDP = Consumption + Govt. Expenditure + Private Investment + Net Exports (Export - Imports)

From computation point of view there is no problem with the formula however, from government planning and approach point of view I prefer the income approach formula (sum of all the income of the nation). GDP can also be computed as follows:

GDP = Salaries & Wages + Interest Income + Rental Income + Royalties + Profits

(It is important to note that higher the salaries higher will be the GDP hence the industries where salaries are higher (along with profits) adds much more to the economy then low income industries. We will come back to this in our future threads)

Government has a job to give a direction to the economy and has two tools for this. The most important tool is taxation which basically results in reduction in consumption and private investment and transfer the same resources to government expenditure.

During the process government setup the priorities where they suppress some of the sectors by putting taxes while uplifting others through government expenditures. For example during the last year government has increased taxation on vehicles which resulted in decline in expenditure on vehicles by Pakistani cosumers and then the same resources can be used by government probably for construction of Dams.

Since last couple of years Pakistan's GDP per capita is on declining phase (in comparison to to others). Even Bangladesh is expected to surpass our GDP per capita during next few year. The core reason behind such a catastrophic decline is implementation of imported solution to cure a domestic problem.

I believe that Pakistan core economic problems should be divided into two categories:

1) Macro-economic issues
2) Micro-Economic issues

Most of our economic advisers in past few decades were imported ones or were influenced by western economists. The core focus of the economic managers was on macro-economic levers as their knowledge base was limited to experience gained from developed economies where micro-economic issues were already resolved and the businesses and firms were already operating much efficiently in comparison to the other nations and no one bother to look at state of affairs being run at micro-economic levels.

An indication of poor performance at micro economic level is indicative from the fact that ranking of cost of doing business in Pakistan is 136 v/s 77 of India whereas despite of having big work force availability of skilled work force in Pakistan is really difficult.

In order to turn the tables we have to list down our own domestic issues and should identify innovative solutions for them that suits our own needs. My focus would be on micro-economic issues rather than macro-economic issues as the same are being tried again and again but without generating desired outcome. As per my own list key problems of Pakistan's economy at micro-economic levels are:

  1. Lack of skilled and semi-skilled labors.
  2. No culture of research and development.
  3. Inefficient production.
  4. Charity v/s investment.
  5. Sick industries.
  6. Lack of public listed companies.
  7. Lack of capital investors willing to take risk.
  8. Lack of culture of entrepreneurship especially in manufacturing industry.
  9. Lack of export support to the business organizations.
  10. Trade friendly laws and policies rather than manufacturing friendly policies (mirco as well macro economic issue)
  11. Smuggling and duty avoidance.
  12. Job security in government organization resulting in lack of initiative and commitment.
  13. Culture of middle man.
  14. Culture resistant to change.
  15. Priority on low income industries such as agriculture.
  16. Lack of value addition products.

The list is not exhaustive and I would like to add more points based on comments and suggestion received. In future threads we will discuss each of the above problems in detail along with the solution and keep it as running threads. The purpose is to learn and innovation as a mutual exercise and may be we can contribute something really positive to our nation.
 
I am starting a series of threads to discuss Economic Problems of Pakistan along with the solutions. My approach will be different in the sense it will not be based on traditional view of economy but focused on more practical areas of the economy specially the trade and commerce.

The most important point I would like to focus on; I am not an economic expert but a mere student of business and commerce. The issues I will be raising here will be based on my own limited practical exposure in various industries. Therefore all learned fellows are welcome to share their views and experiences and feel free to correct me where they feel I am wrong.

In this first thread I will try to present my own introductory view of the economy in general and economy of Pakistan in particular from a non-conventional point of view understandable to a layman as well ...

Economy is measurement of a country's resources produced in particular time period generally an year. We have various tools of measuring economy but the most common tool is GDP. Economists use different methods of computation of GDP, the most common method is the expenditure approach (by combining all expenses in the economy) having the formula as follows:

GDP = Consumption + Govt. Expenditure + Private Investment + Net Exports (Export - Imports)

From computation point of view there is no problem with the formula however, from government planning and approach point of view I prefer the income approach formula (sum of all the income of the nation). GDP can also be computed as follows:

GDP = Salaries & Wages + Interest Income + Rental Income + Royalties + Profits

(It is important to note that higher the salaries higher will be the GDP hence the industries where salaries are higher (along with profits) adds much more to the economy then low income industries. We will come back to this in our future threads)

Government has a job to give a direction to the economy and has two tools for this. The most important tool is taxation which basically results in reduction in consumption and private investment and transfer the same resources to government expenditure.

During the process government setup the priorities where they suppress some of the sectors by putting taxes while uplifting others through government expenditures. For example during the last year government has increased taxation on vehicles which resulted in decline in expenditure on vehicles by Pakistani cosumers and then the same resources can be used by government probably for construction of Dams.

Since last couple of years Pakistan's GDP per capita is on declining phase (in comparison to to others). Even Bangladesh is expected to surpass our GDP per capita during next few year. The core reason behind such a catastrophic decline is implementation of imported solution to cure a domestic problem.

I believe that Pakistan core economic problems should be divided into two categories:

1) Macro-economic issues
2) Micro-Economic issues

Most of our economic advisers in past few decades were imported ones or were influenced by western economists. The core focus of the economic managers was on macro-economic levers as their knowledge base was limited to experience gained from developed economies where micro-economic issues were already resolved and the businesses and firms were already operating much efficiently in comparison to the other nations and no one bother to look at state of affairs being run at micro-economic levels.

An indication of poor performance at micro economic level is indicative from the fact that ranking of cost of doing business in Pakistan is 136 v/s 77 of India whereas despite of having big work force availability of skilled work force in Pakistan is really difficult.

In order to turn the tables we have to list down our own domestic issues and should identify innovative solutions for them that suits our own needs. My focus would be on micro-economic issues rather than macro-economic issues as the same are being tried again and again but without generating desired outcome. As per my own list key problems of Pakistan's economy at micro-economic levels are:

  1. Lack of skilled and semi-skilled labors.
  2. No culture of research and development.
  3. Inefficient production.
  4. Charity v/s investment.
  5. Sick industries.
  6. Lack of public listed companies.
  7. Lack of capital investors willing to take risk.
  8. Lack of culture of entrepreneurship especially in manufacturing industry.
  9. Lack of export support to the business organizations.
  10. Trade friendly laws and policies rather than manufacturing friendly policies (mirco as well macro economic issue)
  11. Smuggling and duty avoidance.
  12. Job security in government organization resulting in lack of initiative and commitment.
  13. Culture of middle man.
  14. Culture resistant to change.
  15. Priority on low income industries such as agriculture.
  16. Lack of value addition products.

The list is not exhaustive and I would like to add more points based on comments and suggestion received. In future threads we will discuss each of the above problems in detail along with the solution and keep it as running threads. The purpose is to learn and innovation as a mutual exercise and may be we can contribute something really positive to our nation.
Thanks for tagging.
Imran khan is trying to do everything on his own. But, politics and work, are two different things.
All he need is a trained team. Can be arranged easily.
I have good ideas about managing things and specially in Pakistan. Will write here later in the day.
 
Quick way to fix this mess is to fix the foundation. The mess that started in 1947. There should be immediate land reforms where lands that were left by people, should be distributed to farmers. All big shots that own lots of farming land, should have their assets confiscated and charged with theft.

Then, major industrial reforms. Agricultural production should be made technologically on par with the world. Food processing plants built in every second village (process agri products that are framed there).

The formation and restructuring of markets. Shops strictly confined to buying and selling Pakistan made goods. Imports heavily taxed. A culture of "made in Pakistan" heavily advertised and nationalized.

Each province should be given a field to focus in and the rest they would have to trade with other provinces, for. An Example, Punjab made mainly agricultural, textile and eastern trade hub. KP, made a transit, oil, and central Asian trade hub. Balochistan a mineral and Persian/Arab trade hub. Sindh, international trade and IT hub. Finally Islamabad is where all company HQs must be made (to centralize all the activities). I purposely leave out medical and educational advancements, because those should be equal no matter what corner of the country you are in. These are very oversimplified explanations, ofcourse

Finally the urbanization of all provinces and development of old and construction of new cities.

Do or die, men
 
I don't think IK is adequately equipped to deal with the issues Pakistan is facing. He has no control over the bureaucracy. Let's pray he changes his strategy and takes some tougher actions...same as he promised during election campaign
 
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Imran Niazi is the worst thing happened to economy. It all depends on IMF since they have thier man as Head of State Bank
 
I don't think IK is adequately equipped to deal with the issues Pakistan is facing. He has no control over the bureaucracy.
Imran Niazi is the worst thing happened to economy. It all depends on IMF since they have thier man as Head of State Bank
Guys in no way we should discuss person or politics here.

The topic at hand is what issues we have and what are the solutions irrespective the persons to implement them.

Lets have some productive discussion rather than just complaining.

@The Eagle @HRK

Quick way to fix this mess is to fix the foundation. The mess that started in 1947. There should be immediate land reforms where lands that were left by people, should be distributed to farmers. All big shots that own lots of farming land, should have their assets confiscated and charged with theft.

Then, major industrial reforms. Agricultural production should be made technologically on par with the world. Food processing plants built in every second village (process agri products that are framed there).

The formation and restructuring of markets. Shops strictly confined to buying and selling Pakistan made goods. Imports heavily taxed. A culture of "made in Pakistan" heavily advertised and nationalized.

Each province should be given a field to focus in and the rest they would have to trade with other provinces, for. An Example, Punjab made mainly agricultural, textile and eastern trade hub. KP, made a transit, oil, and central Asian trade hub. Balochistan a mineral and Persian/Arab trade hub. Sindh, international trade and IT hub. Finally Islamabad is where all company HQs must be made (to centralize all the activities). I purposely leave out medical and educational advancements, because those should be equal no matter what corner of the country you are in. These are very oversimplified explanations, ofcourse

Finally the urbanization of all provinces and development of old and construction of new cities.

Do or die, men
Thanks for the input. So I am summarizing it down. Correct me if I am wrong. You raised the following issues
  1. Incorrect distribution of wealth in the form of land lords.
  2. Lack of use of technology in agriculture.
  3. Excessive consumption of imported goods.
  4. Lack of special economic zones as per strength of multiple region.
The solution presented by you are as follows:
  1. Agriculture reforms. (I think it is another imported solution from India and I will like to discuss this in details later on) We need to analyze it to the death if it is really useful in Pakistan and if yes then how to design and implement them. It would be really helpful if we have someone who has knowledge of agriculture and land processes. Kindly tag anyone we know.
  2. Use of technology. (agreed but again we need to discuss specific solution so we will create a separate thread on this with problem and solution and I will need your help at that stage)
  3. Ban use of imported goods. Its easier to just ban but in reality its really difficult other countries will ban your export too. However, we still need to reduce import so we have to identify other barriers to suppress imports.
  4. Create special economic zones. Good point. We can start thread on specific region with specific products and then we will evaluate how to uplift the products and trade of that particular region so that they can compete international markets.
Thanks for valuable input. We will discuss them in details in threads specific to the points you raised.
 
Guys in no way we should discuss person or politics here.

The topic at hand is what issues we have and what are the solutions irrespective the persons to implement them.

Lets have some productive discussion rather than just complaining.

@The Eagle @HRK
It is not the person rather the govt or the one who is ruling. All your suggestions are to be implemented by the govt. No private individual can do anything and without govt reformation all such discussions are farts in the outer space.

PM has to find a better team of professionals to deal with the issues and reign in the bureaucracy if he wants to eliminate corruption and increase the tax collection. Can I increase the tax collection? No! It is the job of the FBR. What strategies govt has implemented so far to widen the tax base? I remember IK claimed before elections that he would collect Rs 8 trillion in taxes. Now he installed Shabbar Zaidi but bureaucracy does not like him. So to cure the economy, first you need to make govt functional and performing at an efficiency of more than 80%. IK is doing hard work while he needs to do the smart work by employing right people for the right job and removing the hurdles and troublemakers in bureaucracy.
 
It is not the person rather the govt or the one who is ruling. All your suggestions are to be implemented by the govt. No private individual can do anything and without govt reformation all such discussions are farts in the outer space.

PM has to find a better team of professionals to deal with the issues and reign in the bureaucracy if he wants to eliminate corruption and increase the tax collection. Can I increase the tax collection? No! It is the job of the FBR. What strategies govt has implemented so far to widen the tax base? I remember IK claimed before elections that he would collect Rs 8 trillion in taxes. Now he installed Shabbar Zaidi but bureaucracy does not like him. So to cure the economy, first you need to make govt functional and performing at an efficiency of more than 80%. IK is doing hard work while he needs to do the smart work by employing right people for the right job and removing the hurdles and troublemakers in bureaucracy.

So lets ignore Imran Khan and talk about government. So the problem you are highlighting is lack of agreement/coordination between cabinet and bureaucracy ? Is that right?

I am trying to do it in a systemized step by step process and need help of fellows like you. My approach is to create a list of problems first and then group them and identify the solutions. So problems identified till now are as follows:


  1. Lack of skilled and semi-skilled labors.
  2. No culture of research and development.
  3. Inefficient production.
  4. Charity v/s investment.
  5. Sick industries.
  6. Lack of public listed companies.
  7. Lack of capital investors willing to take risk.
  8. Lack of culture of entrepreneurship especially in manufacturing industry.
  9. Lack of export support to the business organizations.
  10. Trade friendly laws and policies rather than manufacturing friendly policies (mirco as well macro economic issue)
  11. Smuggling and duty avoidance.
  12. Job security in government organization resulting in lack of initiative and commitment.
  13. Culture of middle man.
  14. Culture resistant to change.
  15. Priority on low income industries such as agriculture.
  16. Lack of value addition products.
  17. Incorrect distribution of wealth in the form of land lords.
  18. Lack of use of technology in agriculture.
  19. Excessive consumption of imported goods.
  20. Lack of special economic zones as per strength of multiple region.
  21. lack of agreement/coordination between cabinet and bureaucracy.

Last one was highlighted by you.
 
So the actual problem is lack of planning or more accurately lack of long term planning
It's total lack of interest.We don't plan for tomorrow.We plan for today,take loan,build a road, take your cut, use it for election and let nation pay debt.
What PPP & PMLN have done after taking higest amount of loan combined?
Whatever they have done,isn't going to benefit Pakistan in long term.
 
It's total lack of interest.We don't plan for tomorrow.We plan for today,take loan,build a road, take your cut, use it for election and let nation pay debt.
What PPP & PMLN have done after taking higest amount of loan combined?
Whatever they have done,isn't going to benefit Pakistan in long term.

If I say that debt accumulation is the outcome of all the economic problems and will get resolved eventually if we resolve our basic economic issues. Would you agree?

I feel that if we keep on addressing the debt issue only then we will be treating the symptoms (which is a necessity in short term) but the real issues will remain unaddressed. It is similar to fever. Where fever is itself nothing but symptom of an infection. However, if increased from certain threshold than you need to control fever first in emergency but still it will not be cured completely unless you treat the real infection.

Do you agree?
 
If I say that debt accumulation is the outcome of all the economic problems and will get resolved eventually if we resolve our basic economic issues. Would you agree?
Without any industry,that's next to impossible.
We just need to follow few things:-
0-Documentation of econmy.
1-Capital punishment for corruption.
2-Cut imports as much as we can.
3-Increase Industrial output.
4-Get rid of Babus.
5-Improve policing and justic system.
6-Automation in all sort of revenue collection.
Otherwise we are doomed.Current signs are not healthy,we are taking loans for either paying loans or running Govt as of today.
 
Without any industry,that's next to impossible.
We just need to follow few things:-
0-Documentation of econmy.
1-Capital punishment for corruption.
2-Cut imports as much as we can.
3-Increase Industrial output.
4-Get rid of Babus.
5-Improve policing and justic system.
6-Automation in all sort of revenue collection.
Otherwise we are doomed.Current signs are not healthy,we are taking loans for either paying loans or running Govt as of today.
THanks buddy, you identified few of the areas I missed.
 

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