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Dangerous appeasement

nahtanbob

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The blatant American appeasement of India, fully displayed during Prime Minster Modi’s recent visit to the US, is really a measure of America’s desperation to contain China. Convinced that India’s size, location and power can be harnessed to counter-balance China, American Presidents since Clinton have invested heavily to convert India into a “Net Security Provider”. But such appeasement can only prove dangerous, not only for South Asia but globally.

This has involved exceptional treatment for India despite repeated transgressions, several against the US itself. Shortly after Indian nuclear tests in 1998, Clinton began “engaging India” for a “new strategic partnership”. The next Bush administration approved a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement and engineered an exceptional waiver for India by the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG), enhancing India’s nuclear weapons production capability. President Obama’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy included India in the Quadrilateral Alliance against China, along with Japan and Australia. Simultaneously, four foundational agreements were concluded for military, intelligence and logistics cooperation while exemptions were granted from American laws to transfer sensitive technologies. Presidents Trump and Biden have continued these policies with the latest concession being the Initiative on New and Emerging Technologies for weapons development, including cutting edge military systems.

In the political domain, Washington has withdrawn its visa ban on Modi, the “butcher of Gujarat” after he became Prime Minster in 2014 while giving a free pass for his human rights violations against Indian Muslims and repression in occupied Kashmir. Despite Modi’s democratic backsliding, the US also continues to expound the fiction about shared commitment to democracy and human rights. This clearly exposes Washington’s double standards. Meanwhile, the US also continues to endorse Indian candidature for permanent membership of the UN Security Council and the NSG.

Yet, despite such preferential treatment, India rejects any alliance with the US, preferring its policy of “strategic autonomy”, maintaining that in a multi-polar world there can be no friends but “frenemies”. Much to America’s chagrin, India also maintains its traditional partnership with Russia despite the Russian intervention in Ukraine. It has continued purchases of Russian S-400 missiles and other weapons in violation of CAASTSA sanctions, from which the US has been forced to issue a waiver. Moreover, India refuses to condemn Russian action against Ukraine in international forums, even as it continues to import discounted Russian oil and re-export it, including to the US itself.

Such purblind American appeasement of India is dangerous for South Asia, particularly Pakistan. Apart from encouraging Modi’s belligerence, the exponential growth in India’s conventional and strategic military capabilities poses an existential threat to Pakistan. Contrary to Indian claims of Pakistan’s “irrelevance”, nearly 80 per cent of Indian military capabilities are deployed against Pakistan with increasing threats of territorial aggression under the Cold Start doctrine for limited war below the nuclear threshold and even a pre-emptive nuclear first strike.



Rather than recognising that it is at least partially responsible for this situation and restraining Modi, the US has asked Pakistan to show restraint by freezing its strategic programme, meant to ensure credible deterrence against India. The US also seeks reversal of Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China, especially the CPEC project. Indeed, America’s geopolitical objective is Pakistan’s acceptance of India’s regional hegemony, including reversal of its Kashmir policy, so that India has a free hand to confront China as it moves to realise its ambition of becoming a global power. Since this option is unacceptable to either Pakistan or China, South Asia has become the only region in the world with confrontation Involving 4 nuclear powers.

Globally, American appeasement of India has already exposed Washington’s hypocrisy regarding freedom, democracy and human rights. Their criticism of China and Russia over these issues now rings hollow. Indeed, that such American criticism of other countries has always been politically motivated is now an accepted fact. This also demonstrates that the Indo-US partnership is purely driven by geopolitical considerations instead of being based on “shared values”.

Much more perilous is the impact on global and not just regional strategic developments. The appeasement of India on strategic matters — endorsement of its nuclear, missile and space developments — can only encourage other countries in the same directions. Yet another, even more dangerous, development could be the Indian testing and acquisition of thermo-nuclear (hydrogen) weapons. It is well-known that India is developing these weapons in its nuclear facilities near Mysore and claims to have tested a hydrogen bomb during its 1998 tests. But, according to Indian nuclear scientist, K Santhanam, this test was a failure and India would need to test again, despite its commitment not to do so. This has also been indicated by Ashley Tellis, an American academic of Indian origin, in his book, Striking Asymmetries, and in an interview with the Indian Express of 31 October 2022, where he stated that it would in America’s interest not to penalise India for testing a hydrogen bomb since this capability would be for use against China. More recently, another India analyst, Happymon Jacob, tweeted this possibility, wondering about the international response.

Resumed nuclear testing by India would certainly put the Americans in a quandary since they champion the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty while also opening up possibilities for testing by others. The American response to new nuclear tests by India is by no means clear and so far there has been no comment by Washington. But, given their consistent appeasement of India, the US may in fact reconcile to this development while conveying a polite rebuke — just as it did when Indian first tested in 1974 and shortly reversed its sanctions imposed after the 1998 Indian tests. In any event, Pakistan should take this possibility seriously and not be caught unawares if and when this happens.

To conclude, American appeasement of India has made the world a more dangerous place with the primary threat for Pakistan. At a minimum, this requires Pakistan to take all necessary measures to ensure its security, especially its credible minimum deterrence posture.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 20th, 2023.
 
To conclude, American appeasement of India has made the world a more dangerous place with the primary threat for Pakistan. At a minimum, this requires Pakistan to take all necessary measures to ensure its security, especially its credible minimum deterrence posture.

For that one needs political will. No political party in Pakistan is interested in investigating Feb 2019, Aug 2019 and Brahmos missile attacks.

The absolute mockery of policy by successive governments pertaining to India is a grave security risk for Pakistan.

Despite the obvious threats and challenges, election year in Pakistan is aimed at chasing ghosts and enemies within and not aimed at the rising threat from mad Indian elephant in a state of musth.
 
For that one needs political will. No political party in Pakistan is interested in investigating Feb 2019, Aug 2019 and Brahmos missile attacks.

The absolute mockery of policy by successive governments pertaining to India is a grave security risk for Pakistan.

Despite the obvious threats and challenges, election year in Pakistan is aimed at chasing ghosts and enemies within and not aimed at the rising threat from mad Indian elephant in a state of musth.

I really think the Brahmos missile firing was an accident or planned Indian ploy to detect Pakistani air defenses. What is there to investigate without Indian co-operation ?
 
I really think the Brahmos missile firing was an accident or planned Indian ploy to detect Pakistani air defenses. What is there to investigate without Indian co-operation ?

It is fair to conclude that rogue elements inside the Indian army engineered the firing of the Russian designed weapon.
 
It is fair to conclude that rogue elements inside the Indian army engineered the firing of the Russian designed weapon.

I do not think if it was deliberate it was a rogue operation. In either case there is no real inquiry without help from Indian authorities
 
I do not think if it was deliberate it was a rogue operation. In either case there is no real inquiry without help from Indian authorities

Pakistan must classify the incident as an act of aggression and terrorism
 
The blatant American appeasement of India, fully displayed during Prime Minster Modi’s recent visit to the US, is really a measure of America’s desperation to contain China. Convinced that India’s size, location and power can be harnessed to counter-balance China, American Presidents since Clinton have invested heavily to convert India into a “Net Security Provider”. But such appeasement can only prove dangerous, not only for South Asia but globally.

This has involved exceptional treatment for India despite repeated transgressions, several against the US itself. Shortly after Indian nuclear tests in 1998, Clinton began “engaging India” for a “new strategic partnership”. The next Bush administration approved a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement and engineered an exceptional waiver for India by the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG), enhancing India’s nuclear weapons production capability. President Obama’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy included India in the Quadrilateral Alliance against China, along with Japan and Australia. Simultaneously, four foundational agreements were concluded for military, intelligence and logistics cooperation while exemptions were granted from American laws to transfer sensitive technologies. Presidents Trump and Biden have continued these policies with the latest concession being the Initiative on New and Emerging Technologies for weapons development, including cutting edge military systems.

In the political domain, Washington has withdrawn its visa ban on Modi, the “butcher of Gujarat” after he became Prime Minster in 2014 while giving a free pass for his human rights violations against Indian Muslims and repression in occupied Kashmir. Despite Modi’s democratic backsliding, the US also continues to expound the fiction about shared commitment to democracy and human rights. This clearly exposes Washington’s double standards. Meanwhile, the US also continues to endorse Indian candidature for permanent membership of the UN Security Council and the NSG.

Yet, despite such preferential treatment, India rejects any alliance with the US, preferring its policy of “strategic autonomy”, maintaining that in a multi-polar world there can be no friends but “frenemies”. Much to America’s chagrin, India also maintains its traditional partnership with Russia despite the Russian intervention in Ukraine. It has continued purchases of Russian S-400 missiles and other weapons in violation of CAASTSA sanctions, from which the US has been forced to issue a waiver. Moreover, India refuses to condemn Russian action against Ukraine in international forums, even as it continues to import discounted Russian oil and re-export it, including to the US itself.

Such purblind American appeasement of India is dangerous for South Asia, particularly Pakistan. Apart from encouraging Modi’s belligerence, the exponential growth in India’s conventional and strategic military capabilities poses an existential threat to Pakistan. Contrary to Indian claims of Pakistan’s “irrelevance”, nearly 80 per cent of Indian military capabilities are deployed against Pakistan with increasing threats of territorial aggression under the Cold Start doctrine for limited war below the nuclear threshold and even a pre-emptive nuclear first strike.



Rather than recognising that it is at least partially responsible for this situation and restraining Modi, the US has asked Pakistan to show restraint by freezing its strategic programme, meant to ensure credible deterrence against India. The US also seeks reversal of Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China, especially the CPEC project. Indeed, America’s geopolitical objective is Pakistan’s acceptance of India’s regional hegemony, including reversal of its Kashmir policy, so that India has a free hand to confront China as it moves to realise its ambition of becoming a global power. Since this option is unacceptable to either Pakistan or China, South Asia has become the only region in the world with confrontation Involving 4 nuclear powers.

Globally, American appeasement of India has already exposed Washington’s hypocrisy regarding freedom, democracy and human rights. Their criticism of China and Russia over these issues now rings hollow. Indeed, that such American criticism of other countries has always been politically motivated is now an accepted fact. This also demonstrates that the Indo-US partnership is purely driven by geopolitical considerations instead of being based on “shared values”.

Much more perilous is the impact on global and not just regional strategic developments. The appeasement of India on strategic matters — endorsement of its nuclear, missile and space developments — can only encourage other countries in the same directions. Yet another, even more dangerous, development could be the Indian testing and acquisition of thermo-nuclear (hydrogen) weapons. It is well-known that India is developing these weapons in its nuclear facilities near Mysore and claims to have tested a hydrogen bomb during its 1998 tests. But, according to Indian nuclear scientist, K Santhanam, this test was a failure and India would need to test again, despite its commitment not to do so. This has also been indicated by Ashley Tellis, an American academic of Indian origin, in his book, Striking Asymmetries, and in an interview with the Indian Express of 31 October 2022, where he stated that it would in America’s interest not to penalise India for testing a hydrogen bomb since this capability would be for use against China. More recently, another India analyst, Happymon Jacob, tweeted this possibility, wondering about the international response.

Resumed nuclear testing by India would certainly put the Americans in a quandary since they champion the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty while also opening up possibilities for testing by others. The American response to new nuclear tests by India is by no means clear and so far there has been no comment by Washington. But, given their consistent appeasement of India, the US may in fact reconcile to this development while conveying a polite rebuke — just as it did when Indian first tested in 1974 and shortly reversed its sanctions imposed after the 1998 Indian tests. In any event, Pakistan should take this possibility seriously and not be caught unawares if and when this happens.

To conclude, American appeasement of India has made the world a more dangerous place with the primary threat for Pakistan. At a minimum, this requires Pakistan to take all necessary measures to ensure its security, especially its credible minimum deterrence posture.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 20th, 2023.
Our problem as Pakistanis is that we have dependency syndrome with other nations.

Okay, we've established that the entire world is strengthening India...and???

If we Pakistanis have a problem with something, then it's upon us to find a way to solve it. However, solving the problem requires hard work, sacrifice, persistence, honesty, and patience -- qualities our society lacks. Hence we've wasted the last 75 years doing nothing to elevate our own position so as to give India the stick and, potentially, its enablers in the Gulf, Europe, and US the stick.

However, getting to that point requires vision on the part of Pakistanis that goes above and beyond the confines of their borders. When we can't even take control of Afghanistan (due to us lacking the qualities of nation-building), then how do we expect the world to take our lead?

Pakistanis need to decide: If you want the world to listen to us, then merit that ear by getting crap done. If you don't want to get dirty and do the work, then for the love of God shut up. We have no need for empty words, especially for empty hearts sitting in Washington, London, Paris, etc.

As America's appeases India, then Pakistan (i.e., Pakistanis) must wrestle control -- secure its borders by whatever means necessary, enact strict fiscal discipline across all institutions, reinvigorate private investment amongst Pakistani SMEs, achieve and grow a net-positive ForEx, buy your way into key supply chains and markets, and -- while growing your presence economically, militarily, and politically -- pursue your interests. Don't negotiate; take all that you can get today, and leave the rest for tomorrow.
 
Our problem as Pakistanis is that we have dependency syndrome with other nations.

Okay, we've established that the entire world is strengthening India...and???

If we Pakistanis have a problem with something, then it's upon us to find a way to solve it. However, solving the problem requires hard work, sacrifice, persistence, honesty, and patience -- qualities our society lacks. Hence we've wasted the last 75 years doing nothing to elevate our own position so as to give India the stick and, potentially, its enablers in the Gulf, Europe, and US the stick.

However, getting to that point requires vision on the part of Pakistanis that goes above and beyond the confines of their borders. When we can't even take control of Afghanistan (due to us lacking the qualities of nation-building), then how do we expect the world to take our lead?

Pakistanis need to decide: If you want the world to listen to us, then merit that ear by getting crap done. If you don't want to get dirty and do the work, then for the love of God shut up. We have no need for empty words, especially for empty hearts sitting in Washington, London, Paris, etc.

As America's appeases India, then Pakistan (i.e., Pakistanis) must wrestle control -- secure its borders by whatever means necessary, enact strict fiscal discipline across all institutions, reinvigorate private investment amongst Pakistani SMEs, achieve and grow a net-positive ForEx, buy your way into key supply chains and markets, and -- while growing your presence economically, militarily, and politically -- pursue your interests. Don't negotiate; take all that you can get today, and leave the rest for tomorrow.

The world is not out to enable or please India. countries are safeguarding their national interests. In some areas getting close to India is a must to offset potential Chinese actions that can threaten their national interests.

On a serious note why are Pakistanis going to achieve something now or in the short run that was not achieved in 75 years ? (time since the British left). Other than plain hope has anything really changed ?

It is never a given that you can ever become stronger than a country 6x larger than you. people have romantic notions of what happened in the past. Those days are over. When was the last time Afghan or Persian or Central Asian king came into the subcontinent and scored a significant victory ?

If USA and China are number 1 and 2 in the world they are going to court number 3 power in the world. At this point India is projected to be that power. That is a profound dilemma for Pakistani leaders if they want to compete with India. That game has just began
 
The world is not out to enable or please India. countries are safeguarding their national interests. In some areas getting close to India is a must to offset potential Chinese actions that can threaten their national interests.

On a serious note why are Pakistanis going to achieve something now or in the short run that was not achieved in 75 years ? (time since the British left). Other than plain hope has anything really changed ?

It is never a given that you can ever become stronger than a country 6x larger than you. people have romantic notions of what happened in the past. Those days are over. When was the last time Afghan or Persian or Central Asian king came into the subcontinent and scored a significant victory ?

If USA and China are number 1 and 2 in the world they are going to court number 3 power in the world. At this point India is projected to be that power. That is a profound dilemma for Pakistani leaders if they want to compete with India. That game has just began
tbh...the past 75 years are gone, but the next 75 years are still waiting to happen.

The first rule of nation-building is to think about what one will do in the next 5, 10, 15, 30, 50, and 75 years. It's all about setting a vision and laying a methodology for the society to implement, starting with the one who kicks off the project and carried by subsequent generations.

I guess the first thing Pakistanis should do is drop the defeatist mentality and not worry about where India is going, but rather, worry about how they can get Pakistan to that point and beyond, even if it takes 100 years. As I said, you take what you can get now, and leave the rest for tomorrow.
 
What we are complaining for.
Riddikulus!
No one gives rat's fart to children and weakling whining.
 
tbh...the past 75 years are gone, but the next 75 years are still waiting to happen.

The first rule of nation-building is to think about what one will do in the next 5, 10, 15, 30, 50, and 75 years. It's all about setting a vision and laying a methodology for the society to implement, starting with the one who kicks off the project and carried by subsequent generations.

I guess the first thing Pakistanis should do is drop the defeatist mentality and not worry about where India is going, but rather, worry about how they can get Pakistan to that point and beyond, even if it takes 100 years. As I said, you take what you can get now, and leave the rest for tomorrow.

They can’t because they are slaves led by slaves. The elites in Pakistan are products of the colonist who left behind these parasites to control South Asia. They consider themselves honorary westerners and act like. They hate Islam, local cultures, and people. They’re what I call MINOs just to fool the average person.

Look at the retarded decision making the past 75 years and then show me another nation whose establishment has made similar decisions which always ended up hurting the country. These slaves hurt Pakistan, then they leave for the west with their wealth stolen from the country.

They have no shame. I’ve said it so many times here, india is not as strong as so much Pakistan is mentally weak because it’s led by cowards from the military to the political class. They could care less because they kept the country artificially poor and in an environment like that, being connected to wealth is more important than taking care of your nation. Their main concern is to sustain their corrupt ways. Pakistan be damned.

It’ll take care 5 years of hard work from a nationalist government to solve Pakistans issues. You need to literally sent every corrupt political and army officer to the gulag. Then you need to take care of the fake Mullahs amongst our midst and end their lives. Next is to build an identity based of Islamic but not as overt as Iran but more inherent. Close your borders and regulate the economy by force if necessary.

Just some of my ideas..
 
They can’t because they are slaves led by slaves. The elites in Pakistan are products of the colonist who left behind these parasites to control South Asia. They consider themselves honorary westerners and act like. They hate Islam, local cultures, and people. They’re what I call MINOs just to fool the average person.

the same elites rule India, Bangladesh
 
the same elites rule India, Bangladesh
I’m not so sure about Bangladesh but India isn’t. Call it whatever but they are led by competent leadership sans Modi and his monkey politics.
 

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