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Cyclone could hit coastal areas in 48 hours

Evil Flare

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KARACHI: The Pakistan Meteorological Department on Wednesday warned that low wind pressure in the Arabian Sea could turn into a medium intensity cyclone in the next 48 hours.
Authorities have prohibited people from visiting beaches and police has been deployed along the coastal areas.
The cyclone will pass through the coasts of Karachi, Thatta, Badin, Makran and Gwadar, giving way to heavy rainfall and winds in these areas.
Fishermen who are currently present in the open sea have been directed to return by Friday.



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The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has warned that a tropical storm, which is likely to form 600km off the coast of Karachi will hit the Sindh-Makran coastal area at night between Friday and Saturday.

The PMD has advised fishermen out on the open sea to come back as waves of 4 to 6 feet of height might be generated by the storm. Fishermen are also advised not to venture into the open sea from Friday and Monday.

The police in Karachi have warned people not to swim in the water while Section 144 has also been imposed in this regard.

According to the PMD the low air pressure in the eastern Arabian Sea is likely to intensify into a depression on Wednesday night while the sea surface temperatures and other factors are favourable for forming a tropical cyclone on Thursday night/evening.

Heavy rains are also expected in coastal areas of Balochistan and Sindh.

The Met department said that the weather might churn up a hurricane, however, the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) is monitoring the sea pattern closely.

Thatta, Badin, Hyderabad, Mirpurkhas and Tharparkar will probably receive showers, while heavy rains might lash Karachi as well.


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---------- Post added at 01:25 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:24 PM ----------

Tropical storm likely to hit Karachi coast
No warning system at fish harbour: Minister
Nasir Mahmood

Karachi—Met Office said that low air pressure in Arabian Sea is likely to form a tropical cyclone. High waves and heavy rains are expected in Sindh and Balochistan coastal area due to build up of a storm 600 miles away from Karachi in the Arabian Sea.

According to Pakistan Meteorological Department, it is hard to predict when this low air pressure would take shape of a storm and what would be its direction. Fishermen in Sindh and Balochistan have been asked to stay away from open sea. Meanwhile, heat wave has been intensified in Sindh and Punjab due to this low air pressure.

Meanwhile, Provincial Fisheries Minister Zahid Bhurgari has said no monitoring system was installed at fish harbour to warn against rain and cyclone. Speaking on the floor of the Sindh Assembly, Bhurgari said that all the passes issued to the fishermen had been cancelled due to threat of cyclone and measures were being taken to transfer them to safer places. He said that government was ready to face any situation and was in touch with the officials of the Pakistan Navy, the Coast Guards and the Maritime Agency. He said that all the provincial government departments had been put on high alert.

Low air pressure in the Arabian Sea is likely to increase, which could turn into a medium intensity tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, Meteorological Department warned on Wednesday. Authorities advised people against visiting the beaches, while police has been deployed along the coastal areas. It said that the cyclone would pass through the coasts of Karachi, Thatta, Badin, Makran and Gwadar, giving way to heavy rainfall and winds in these areas.

Director General Pakistan Meteorological Department Arif Mehmood said that the Arabian Sea depression can likely to move towards northwest. He said there was forecast of light showers along Sindh coastal belt at Karachi, Thatta, Badin and Jati towns on Friday, while the area will receive downpour on Saturday and Sunday.

The cyclone forecast had caused panic among thousands fishermen living at 107 kilometer long coastal belt of district Thatta who are sending messages to their relatives at sea through mobile phones and other means of communications informing them about the cyclone warning. The met department said that the weather might churn up a hurricane; however, the tropical cyclone warning centre is observing the sea pattern.

The PMD warned fishermen to stay out of the water as waves of 4 to 6 feet of height might be generated by the storm. The police in Karachi have warned people not to swim at the seawater while Section 144 has also been imposed in this regard. The current sea surface temperature is favourable for the development of this weather system into a Tropical Cyclone Thursday evening. The sea temperature and other meteorological parameters indicate that expected Tropical Cyclone may further intensify on Friday/ Saturday that would move in Northwesterly direction initially. Based on probable track and estimated intensity of expected Tropical Cyclone, widespread thunderstorm rain with scattered heavy fall accompanied by strong gusty winds is expected along Sindh-Makran coast from Friday evening. The seas conditions are likely to become rough
 
Expect half of nazimabad, Gulshan and PECHS to be on the beach to catch a glimpse of the Cyclone.
 
Karachi would suffer to a great deal if tsunami develops in Arabian sea or Indian ocean
 
The depression has unexpectedly moved eastwards towards Mumbai, westerly trough and dry over North is causing the storm to move ENE. Chances of formation of cyclone is extremely poor, the system could fizzle out near Mumbai during the next 24 hours. But there are also some chances that once these factores die down, the tropical low will move towards Sindh bringing some showers along with fast winds and the low will move in the sea where it will dissipate, its remnants will bring drizzle to northern Oman. In the end, I would say it again, that these are just forecast could change in matter of mintues.

Forecasting a tropical cyclone is not easy. No body expected Hurricane Katrina to become the dangerous cyclone in the North Atlantic Ocean, no body expected Cyclone Gonu to become a super cyclone and no body expected Phet to hit Oman. There had been some strong cyclones in the Arabian sea that caused flooding in Karachi during the year 1985, 1992, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010.
 
It might not touch Pakistan coast as it is moving towards Indian coast.

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