China's Domination of the South China Sea

[Martian2]

In November 2011, the Obama administration announced a Pivot to Asia policy. This meant the US will challenge China's Nine-Dash-Line Map from 1947 regarding the South China Sea (which had been unchallenged for 64 years).

Since the US has no territorial claims to the South China Sea, it had to find a proxy.

In January 2013, the Philippines filed an arbitration claim against China in the Netherlands.

China said the Dutch Permanent Court of Arbitration had no jurisdiction over Chinese sovereignty. Arbitration requires two parties to voluntarily authorize the arbiter with the power to decide a dispute. Since China said the Permanent Court of Arbitration had no jurisdiction, the Netherlands-based arbitrator had no authority to rule on Chinese sovereignty in the South China Sea.

The days of European Colonialism/Imperialism are long gone. The idea that a group of old white men in a Dutch wooden house could decide China's 2,000-year-old sovereignty over the South China Sea is plainly ridiculous.

Taking no chances, China embarked on the reclamation and militarization of its South China Sea islands (see pictures below).

So, who has dominion over the South China Sea?

Is it China's naval armada and its heavily militarized South China Sea islands or a piece of paper from the Netherlands?

I'm going to call it in China's favor. A piece of paper from the Netherlands doesn't mean a thing.

Staring down the barrel of a Chinese main gun, that is something entirely different.
----------

China’s air and naval facilities on contested islands in South China Sea ‘almost ready' | Straits Times (February 5, 2018)

 

[TaiShang]

Idiotic Aquino government called this upon themselves. China advocated putting disputes in the back-burner, but, the previous PH government, under US encouragement, took a risky bet, which, ended up winning a fake victory at the Kangaroo court (with heavy Australian and US "expert" presence that came very cost;y) and losing an entire war.

The PH was left alone and deserted by its colonial master in the end with a piece of paper with four corners (as President Duterte called it), and China had all the legitimate excuse to start an moderate build-up campaign in the SCS.

Now China has a much larger military and scientific presence in the SCS than before the Arbitration.

Who wins, who loses? Relatively speaking, only China is now making real changes on the ground. The US actions are arbitrary and inconclusive. And no one is buying their bravado. The US lost even the trust of its former colonial slaves. China, on the other hand, is about to sign a COC in the SCS with the ASEAN.

COC and all of the islands that are built up already as military forward posts.

Indeed, as @Martian2 empirically proves, China was almost forced to have a strategic victory.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Indeed, as @Martian2 empirically proves, China was almost forced to have a strategic victory.

In terms of what changed on the ground, China did indeed win, because we now have new islands and military bases all over the SCS which did not exist even a few years ago.

Who knows if this was an accident, collusion between China-Philippines-USA to end with this result, or just a very elaborate strategic game from Zhongnanhai.

What China gained was very significant, what the Philippines and the USA lost was not very much. Perhaps this result is to the benefit of all parties in the end.

 

[TaiShang]

In terms of what changed on the ground, China did indeed win, because we now have new islands and military bases all over the SCS which did not exist even a few years ago.

Who knows if this was an accident, collusion between China-Philippines-USA to end with this result, or just a very elaborate strategic game from Zhongnanhai.

What China gained was very significant, what the Philippines and the USA lost was not very much. Perhaps this result is to the benefit of all parties in the end.

I agree. The PH was not supposed to get more than it already had, I guess. That just matches the capability and future chances of the country. One cannot grant a country which is naturally supposed to remain small, or medium at best, a great power power status.

If you do, the country will end up like Japan.

In fact, today, even the US seems to be below the caliber to utilize all the power it collected from the post-War and post-Cold War.

Hence the appearance of the US being more and more like another SP12.

I guess Beijing played the game very well and did not grabbed the baits by the US (behind the scene) and Australia and Japan as forward lapdogs. The PH did not lose much, in fact, they just maintained the position they were supposed to have.

The US, on the other hand, now faces a China that has multiple military outposts in the SCS. They are real and they are there to stay. No one will ever fire a single bullet at them. If the US does so, they will risk their entire Japanese and Korean bases as well as Guam.

That's out of equation. Then, what remains for the US is to increase its own presence. Yet, it is both costly and inconclusive because their presence will not annul the fact of the militarized islands in SCS that may theoretically host weapons systems that would inflict great damage on the US in case of a real war.

The Arbitration was such a nice gift the PH gave China. Yet, many SP12s were jumping up and down in June 2016.

 

[onebyone]

[QUOTE = "Martian2 โพสต์: 10227137 สมาชิก: 22194"] ในเดือนพฤศจิกายน 2011 โอบามาบริหารประกาศนโยบาย Pivot to Asia ซึ่งหมายความว่าสหรัฐฯจะท้าทายแผนที่เก้าสายของจีนตั้งแต่ปีพ. ศ. 2490 เกี่ยวกับทะเลจีนใต้ (ซึ่งได้รับการคัดค้านเป็นเวลา 64 ปี)

เนื่องจากสหรัฐไม่ได้อ้างสิทธิ์ในอาณาเขตของทะเลจีนใต้จึงต้องหาพร็อกซี

ในเดือนมกราคมปี 2013 ฟิลิปปินส์ได้ยื่นอุทธรณ์คำชี้ขาดของอนุญาโตตุลาการต่อจีนในประเทศเนเธอร์แลนด์

จีนกล่าวว่าศาลอนุญาโตตุลาการถาวรเนเธอร์แลนด์มีอำนาจเหนืออธิปไตยของจีนไม่ได้ การอนุญาโตตุลาการกำหนดให้คู่สัญญาทั้งสองฝ่ายโดยสมัครใจให้อำนาจผู้ชี้ขาดโดยมีอำนาจในการตัดสินข้อพิพาท เนื่องจากประเทศจีนกล่าวว่าศาลอนุญาโตตุลาการถาวรไม่มีเขตอำนาจศาลอนุญาโตตุลาการของประเทศเนเธอร์แลนด์จึงไม่มีอำนาจในการปกครองอธิปไตยของจีนในทะเลจีนใต้

ยุคอาณานิคมยุโรป / จักรวรรดินิยมได้หายไปนานแล้ว ความคิดที่ว่ากลุ่มชายชราคนหนึ่งในบ้านไม้ของชาวดัตช์สามารถตัดสินอำนาจอธิปไตยของจีนอายุ 2,000 ปีในทะเลจีนใต้ได้อย่างไร้สาระ

จีนไม่ได้รับโอกาสในการบุกเบิกและกำลังทหารของหมู่เกาะทะเลจีนใต้ (ดูภาพด้านล่าง)

ดังนั้นผู้ที่มีอำนาจเหนือทะเลจีนใต้?

เป็นกองเรือรบของจีนและหมู่เกาะทะเลจีนใต้ที่มีกำลังแรงมากหรือกระดาษแผ่นหนึ่งจากเนเธอร์แลนด์หรือไม่?

ฉันจะเรียกมันในความโปรดปรานของจีน กระดาษจากประเทศเนเธอร์แลนด์ไม่ได้หมายถึงอะไร

มองลงไปที่กระบอกปืนใหญ่ของจีนนั่นคือสิ่งที่แตกต่างไปจากเดิมอย่างสิ้นเชิง
----------

สิ่งอำนวยความสะดวกทางอากาศและทางทะเลของจีนในหมู่เกาะที่โต้แย้งในทะเลจีนใต้เกือบพร้อม ช่องแคบไทม์ (5 กุมภาพันธ์ 2561)

[/ quote]

 

[TaiShang]

[QUOTE = "Martian2 โพสต์: 10227137 สมาชิก: 22194"] ในเดือนพฤศจิกายน 2011 โอบามาบริหารประกาศนโยบาย Pivot to Asia ซึ่งหมายความว่าสหรัฐฯจะท้าทายแผนที่เก้าสายของจีนตั้งแต่ปีพ. ศ. 2490 เกี่ยวกับทะเลจีนใต้ (ซึ่งได้รับการคัดค้านเป็นเวลา 64 ปี)

เนื่องจากสหรัฐไม่ได้อ้างสิทธิ์ในอาณาเขตของทะเลจีนใต้จึงต้องหาพร็อกซี

ในเดือนมกราคมปี 2013 ฟิลิปปินส์ได้ยื่นอุทธรณ์คำชี้ขาดของอนุญาโตตุลาการต่อจีนในประเทศเนเธอร์แลนด์

จีนกล่าวว่าศาลอนุญาโตตุลาการถาวรเนเธอร์แลนด์มีอำนาจเหนืออธิปไตยของจีนไม่ได้ การอนุญาโตตุลาการกำหนดให้คู่สัญญาทั้งสองฝ่ายโดยสมัครใจให้อำนาจผู้ชี้ขาดโดยมีอำนาจในการตัดสินข้อพิพาท เนื่องจากประเทศจีนกล่าวว่าศาลอนุญาโตตุลาการถาวรไม่มีเขตอำนาจศาลอนุญาโตตุลาการของประเทศเนเธอร์แลนด์จึงไม่มีอำนาจในการปกครองอธิปไตยของจีนในทะเลจีนใต้

ยุคอาณานิคมยุโรป / จักรวรรดินิยมได้หายไปนานแล้ว ความคิดที่ว่ากลุ่มชายชราคนหนึ่งในบ้านไม้ของชาวดัตช์สามารถตัดสินอำนาจอธิปไตยของจีนอายุ 2,000 ปีในทะเลจีนใต้ได้อย่างไร้สาระ

จีนไม่ได้รับโอกาสในการบุกเบิกและกำลังทหารของหมู่เกาะทะเลจีนใต้ (ดูภาพด้านล่าง)

ดังนั้นผู้ที่มีอำนาจเหนือทะเลจีนใต้?

เป็นกองเรือรบของจีนและหมู่เกาะทะเลจีนใต้ที่มีกำลังแรงมากหรือกระดาษแผ่นหนึ่งจากเนเธอร์แลนด์หรือไม่?

ฉันจะเรียกมันในความโปรดปรานของจีน กระดาษจากประเทศเนเธอร์แลนด์ไม่ได้หมายถึงอะไร

มองลงไปที่กระบอกปืนใหญ่ของจีนนั่นคือสิ่งที่แตกต่างไปจากเดิมอย่างสิ้นเชิง
----------

สิ่งอำนวยความสะดวกทางอากาศและทางทะเลของจีนในหมู่เกาะที่โต้แย้งในทะเลจีนใต้เกือบพร้อม ช่องแคบไทม์ (5 กุมภาพันธ์ 2561)

[/ quote]

Such a nice development. It shows that China has the capacity to provide East Asia all the required public goods for common development.

 

[dy1022]

welldone!

 

[cirr]

China completes high-temperature well drilling in S China Sea

2018-02-07 09:02 Global Times Editor: Li Yan

China has completed high-temperature, high-pressure well drilling in the South China Sea which can contribute to providing clean energy and drive the development of the country's real economy, experts said.

"The successful drilling is further proof that we have mastered high-temperature, high-pressure well drilling, and has provided strong support for the future construction of the natural gas reserve area in the South China Sea," Li Zhong, the chief engineer of the Western South China Sea Oil Administration Bureau of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), told China National Radio (CNR).

Li said the South China Sea is rich in oil and gas reserves while the exploitation difficulty is among the highest in the world, which makes the successful drilling of great significance.

The well is located in the South China Sea's Yinggehai Basin. The temperature of the well reaches 200 degrees Celsius with a pressure coefficient of 2.28, while the well's bottom hole pressure is close to 1,000 atmospheres, CNR reported on Tuesday.

Li also mentioned that along with the development of exploitation methods, it also drives the development of the country's real economy, such as machinery manufacturing and shipbuilding.

The application of the well drilling system has achieved a direct financial benefit of 20 billion yuan ($3 billion) and an indirect economic benefit of 300 billion yuan, Li said.

The country's first high-temperature, high-pressure deepwater exploration well, the Lingshui 25-1S-1 deepwater well, was drilled in 2015 by CNOOC, 140 kilometers south of Hainan Island, at a depth of one kilometer beneath the sea and at over 150 degrees Celsius, Xinhua News Agency reported.

http://www.ecns.cn/2018/02-07/291763.shtml

 

[Martian2]

China's domination of the South China Sea renders F-22 and F-35 flaws moot

The South China Sea is the only real flash-point between China and the United States.

China has recovered Hong Kong (1997) and Macau (1999). China is currently building militarized islands in the South China Sea to cement its control (2018).

This leaves Taiwan, which China will probably recover in about 15-20 years.

Diaoyu Islands (2.7 square miles) are really tiny and China will eventually recover them from Japan. Probably in the next 15-20 years as well. China can simply prohibit Japanese transport ships or ships carrying goods to Japan from traversing the South China Sea. A soft blockade if you will.

Finally, South Tibet. This will probably happen in about 25 years.

The South China Sea is 3.5 million square kilometers. It is larger than India (3.3 million square kilometers).

For a while there, it looked like the United States might challenge China's claim to the South China Sea. With every passing year, it becomes far less likely that the US will mount a military challenge.

The operational Chinese militarized South China Sea islands, commissioned J-20 stealth fighters, new radar systems, and DF-41 10-MIRV ICBMs coming off the production line to serve as a final deterrent mean the US is unlikely to challenge a much stronger Chinese military position in the South China Sea.
----------

So...this means all of the flaws of the F-22 (short combat radius) and F-35 become moot.

It doesn't matter if China has built a very advanced anti-stealth network to destroy F-22s. Chinese missiles that target F-22 weak points in air refueling tankers, fuel depots, airport runways, and maintenance facilities don't matter if there is no war.

The Chengdu J-20 is a later-designed stealth fighter. It has advantages over the F-22 (see infographic below).

The Chengdu J-20 has a Diverterless Supersonic Inlet (DSI) to block radar waves from entering the air inlet. In contrast, the Lockheed Martin F-22 depends on a very risky "perfect stealth coating" throughout its interior air inlets to maintain stealth. If there are flaws in the stealth coatings of the interior air inlet ducts then radar waves will bounce off the air inlet walls and reflect off the engine turbofan blades to provide a clear radar signature to an enemy radar.

The F-35 was conceived during a time when Chinese stealth fighters did not exist. By changing the F-35 design ad hoc to address its shortcomings, it is inferior in many ways to China's J-20 and J-31 stealth designs. For example, the F-35 service ceiling of 50,000 feet is clearly an Achilles Heel. Both the J-20 and J-31 can shoot their air-to-air missiles much farther from 66,000 feet ("look down shoot down" capability).

If you remove China from the picture, no other country fields advanced stealth fighters. The Russian T-50/Pak Fa has exposed metallic engines and straight air inlets. The Russian T-50/Pak Fa is easily detected by radar.

In conclusion, the United States will export many F-35 stealth fighters to other countries. We will never see the flaws of the F-22 and F-35. China's military defense systems were designed to combat the F-22 and F-35. Since we will never see the Chinese advanced military technology in action, the F-35 will reign supreme over current fourth-generation non-stealth fighters.
----------

Chengdu J-20 vs. Lockheed Martin F-22

China's Chengdu J-20 is superior to the Lockheed Martin F-22 in the following ways.

J-20 has a combat radius of 1,200 miles. F-22 has a combat radius of 471 miles.
J-20 has DSI. F-22 does not.
J-20 has EODAS. F-22 does not.
J-20 has EOTS. F-22 does not.

The J-20 has baked-on stealth. In contrast, the F-22 has a fragile earlier-generation stealth-coating technology that requires a temperature and humidity controlled hangar to reapply the stealth coatings.

The F-22 is superior to the J-20 in rear-aspect stealth due to the stealthy flat exhaust nozzles.

 

[TaiShang]

PLA growing in ability to win a war in South China Sea: experts

By Guo Yuandan Source:Global Times Published: 2018/2/11

The People's Liberation Army is making remarkable progress in its ability to safeguard national sovereignty and win a war in the South China Sea, a Chinese military expert said on Saturday in response to a US admiral pledging to defend freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.

The US will counterbalance China's rising influence in the South China Sea, Phillip Sawyer, commander of the US Navy's seventh fleet, was quoted as saying in a Chinese-language report from the Kyodo News Agency on Friday.

In response to the Chinese navy's expanding activities, it was important for the US to send ships into the region to protect freedom of navigation, Sawyer said.

So-called freedom of navigation is the only approach for the US in the South China Sea and Washington will not drop this "principle" for a long time to come, Li Jie, a Beijing-based naval expert, told the Global Times on Saturday.

Sawyer's remarks showed the US Navy will further implement US' Indo-Pacific strategy, further meddle in the South China Sea and increase patrols in the region, Li said.

Sawyer was named commander of the seventh fleet in August.

Based in Japan, the fleet is the largest US naval force outside the country.

Its area of operation spans more than 124 million square kilometers and encompasses 36 maritime countries and regions.

The PLA Navy's ability to safeguard national sovereignty and marine interests has improved greatly, Li said.

The commissioning of the Type 052D destroyer, successful test of the intercontinental ballistic missile Dongfeng-41, Su-35 fighter jet patrols in the South China Sea and China's most advanced stealth fighter the J-20 are facts that showed that the gap was shrinking between the Chinese and US militaries, Li said.

The Chinese strategy of theater commands formed two years ago and their coordination with military services has improved greatly, he said.

China now has increasing confidence on its capability to win a war in the South China Sea, Li said.

Sawyer's remarks were the second by a senior US official in February reaffirming so-called freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.

US Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Tina Kaidanow on January 5 said that US ships would conduct freedom of navigation operations in the region.

The US and its strongest military ally in Asia have increased cooperation in recent years.

In May 2017, Japan dispatched its biggest ship since World War II to protect a US supply ship in the first such operation during peacetime.

 

[Viet]

China's domination of the South China Sea renders F-22 and F-35 flaws moot

The South China Sea is the only real flash-point between China and the United States.

China has recovered Hong Kong (1997) and Macau (1999). China is currently building militarized islands in the South China Sea to cement its control (2018).

This leaves Taiwan, which China will probably recover in about 15-20 years.

Diaoyu Islands (2.7 square miles) are really tiny and China will eventually recover them from Japan. Probably in the next 15-20 years as well. China can simply prohibit Japanese transport ships or ships carrying goods to Japan from traversing the South China Sea. A soft blockade if you will.

Finally, South Tibet. This will probably happen in about 25 years.

The South China Sea is 3.5 million square kilometers. It is larger than India (3.3 million square kilometers).

For a while there, it looked like the United States might challenge China's claim to the South China Sea. With every passing year, it becomes far less likely that the US will mount a military challenge.

The operational Chinese militarized South China Sea islands, commissioned J-20 stealth fighters, new radar systems, and DF-41 10-MIRV ICBMs coming off the production line to serve as a final deterrent mean the US is unlikely to challenge a much stronger Chinese military position in the South China Sea.
----------

So...this means all of the flaws of the F-22 (short combat radius) and F-35 become moot.

It doesn't matter if China has built a very advanced anti-stealth network to destroy F-22s. Chinese missiles that target F-22 weak points in air refueling tankers, fuel depots, airport runways, and maintenance facilities don't matter if there is no war.

The Chengdu J-20 is a later-designed stealth fighter. It has advantages over the F-22 (see infographic below).

The Chengdu J-20 has a Diverterless Supersonic Inlet (DSI) to block radar waves from entering the air inlet. In contrast, the Lockheed Martin F-22 depends on a very risky "perfect stealth coating" throughout its interior air inlets to maintain stealth. If there are flaws in the stealth coatings of the interior air inlet ducts then radar waves will bounce off the air inlet walls and reflect off the engine turbofan blades to provide a clear radar signature to an enemy radar.

The F-35 was conceived during a time when Chinese stealth fighters did not exist. By changing the F-35 design ad hoc to address its shortcomings, it is inferior in many ways to China's J-20 and J-31 stealth designs. For example, the F-35 service ceiling of 50,000 feet is clearly an Achilles Heel. Both the J-20 and J-31 can shoot their air-to-air missiles much farther from 66,000 feet ("look down shoot down" capability).

If you remove China from the picture, no other country fields advanced stealth fighters. The Russian T-50/Pak Fa has exposed metallic engines and straight air inlets. The Russian T-50/Pak Fa is easily detected by radar.

In conclusion, the United States will export many F-35 stealth fighters to other countries. We will never see the flaws of the F-22 and F-35. China's military defense systems were designed to combat the F-22 and F-35. Since we will never see the Chinese advanced military technology in action, the F-35 will reign supreme over current fourth-generation non-stealth fighters.
----------

Chengdu J-20 vs. Lockheed Martin F-22

China's Chengdu J-20 is superior to the Lockheed Martin F-22 in the following ways.

J-20 has a combat radius of 1,200 miles. F-22 has a combat radius of 471 miles.
J-20 has DSI. F-22 does not.
J-20 has EODAS. F-22 does not.
J-20 has EOTS. F-22 does not.

The J-20 has baked-on stealth. In contrast, the F-22 has a fragile earlier-generation stealth-coating technology that requires a temperature and humidity controlled hangar to reapply the stealth coatings.

The F-22 is superior to the J-20 in rear-aspect stealth due to the stealthy flat exhaust nozzles.

How do you want to dominate the sea if we control the major parts?

Other question

Has China ever fought a real aerial battle?

China fiction movies don’t count.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

First attain the conditions of victory, then engage in battle!

More calculations means victory...

Less means defeat.


By attaining the conditions of Victory China has made any battle in SCS useless... And China did this without any brovados or false claims, grandstanding...just good old Chinese style hardwork, diligence and immaculate planning!

Just look at the stand off site with India... China attained strategic victory without even firing a single shot...

All this thanks to staying with the Way.... sticking with the Chinese Ethos = War is stupid, only stupid want war!

This is just first phase of development...slowly but surely China is creating the conditions for the troublemakers and colonial powers of the past to leave Asia finally.

Asians should be grateful for this gesture... but sadly many Asian elites are sold out cardboard cutouts...without any Soul or Substance! And then you have a superpower in the South... this comedy must end soon!

 

[Viet]

First attain the conditions of victory, then engage in battle!

More calculations means victory...

Less means defeat.


By attaining the conditions of Victory China has made any battle in SCS useless... And China did this without any brovados or false claims, grandstanding...just good old Chinese style hardwork, diligence and immaculate planning!

Just look at the stand off site with India... China attained strategic victory without even firing a single shot...

All this thanks to staying with the Way.... sticking with the Chinese Ethos = War is stupid, only stupid want war!

This is just first phase of development...slowly but surely China is creating the conditions for the troublemakers and colonial powers of the past to leave Asia finally.

Asians should be grateful for this gesture... but sadly many Asian elites are sold out cardboard cutouts...without any Soul or Substance! And then you have a superpower in the South... this comedy must end soon!

can you pls do everybody a favor?

speak for yourself, not for other people´s countries!

you are not God.

 

[Martian2]

PLA growing in ability to win a war in South China Sea: experts

By Guo Yuandan Source:Global Times Published: 2018/2/11

The People's Liberation Army is making remarkable progress in its ability to safeguard national sovereignty and win a war in the South China Sea, a Chinese military expert said on Saturday in response to a US admiral pledging to defend freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.

The US will counterbalance China's rising influence in the South China Sea, Phillip Sawyer, commander of the US Navy's seventh fleet, was quoted as saying in a Chinese-language report from the Kyodo News Agency on Friday.

In response to the Chinese navy's expanding activities, it was important for the US to send ships into the region to protect freedom of navigation, Sawyer said.

So-called freedom of navigation is the only approach for the US in the South China Sea and Washington will not drop this "principle" for a long time to come, Li Jie, a Beijing-based naval expert, told the Global Times on Saturday.

Sawyer's remarks showed the US Navy will further implement US' Indo-Pacific strategy, further meddle in the South China Sea and increase patrols in the region, Li said.

Sawyer was named commander of the seventh fleet in August.

Based in Japan, the fleet is the largest US naval force outside the country.

Its area of operation spans more than 124 million square kilometers and encompasses 36 maritime countries and regions.

The PLA Navy's ability to safeguard national sovereignty and marine interests has improved greatly, Li said.

The commissioning of the Type 052D destroyer, successful test of the intercontinental ballistic missile Dongfeng-41, Su-35 fighter jet patrols in the South China Sea and China's most advanced stealth fighter the J-20 are facts that showed that the gap was shrinking between the Chinese and US militaries, Li said.

The Chinese strategy of theater commands formed two years ago and their coordination with military services has improved greatly, he said.

China now has increasing confidence on its capability to win a war in the South China Sea, Li said.

Sawyer's remarks were the second by a senior US official in February reaffirming so-called freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.

US Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Tina Kaidanow on January 5 said that US ships would conduct freedom of navigation operations in the region.

The US and its strongest military ally in Asia have increased cooperation in recent years.

In May 2017, Japan dispatched its biggest ship since World War II to protect a US supply ship in the first such operation during peacetime.

Conducting freedom of navigation patrols is not a challenge to Chinese sovereignty over the South China Sea. It is a meaningless gesture.

The United States is basically saying: "We're going to keep waiting until the Chinese Navy becomes larger than the US Navy and then we'll withdraw."

China is engaged in the mass construction of advanced destroyers and nuclear submarines. China is also fortifying its artificial islands. Furthermore, China builds more J-20 fighters every month. The J-31 will be ready in a few more years.

TIME is China's greatest ally. The United States has given China all of the time that it needs. Current US policy is to give China more time.

China has followed Sun Tzu's strategy as it reclaimed the South China Sea. Without fighting a war in the South China Sea, the United States has conducted a soft retreat. The United States had refused the Philippine offer to reestablish the American naval base at Subic Bay.

Additionally, China has built an underwater SOSUS network in the South China Sea.

China has all of the advantages in the South China Sea. By waiting too long, it would be foolish now for the United States to start a South China Sea war. Today, the probability of victory favors China.
----------

However, I believe the United States made the right choice.

It is pointless to challenge China in the South China Sea. China's reaction is predictable. China would have reclaimed Outer Mongolia to gain strategic depth against the US threat emanating from the South China Sea. Afterwards, China would have waged a decades-long war (if necessary) to reclaim the South China Sea.

By not militarily challenging China in the South China Sea, the United States removed China's justifications to reclaim Outer Mongolia. China's sovereignty over the South China Sea was always a foregone conclusion. Over the long term, it is not possible to deny Chinese control over the South China Sea.

I think the US came out ahead. China does not have Outer Mongolia. Outer Mongolia is far more valuable than some seawater in the South China Sea.

 

[onebyone]

Conducting freedom of navigation patrols is not a challenge to Chinese sovereignty over the South China Sea. It is a meaningless gesture.

The United States is basically saying: "We're going to keep waiting until the Chinese Navy becomes larger than the US Navy and then we'll withdraw."

China is engaged in the mass construction of advanced destroyers and nuclear submarines. China is also fortifying its artificial islands. Furthermore, China builds more J-20 fighter every month. The J-31 will be ready in a few more years.

TIME is China's greatest ally. The United States has given China all of the time that it needs. Current US policy is to give China more time.

China has followed Sun Tzu's strategy as it reclaimed the South China Sea. Without fighting a war in the South China Sea, the United States has conducted a soft retreat. The United States had refused the Philippine offer to reestablish the American naval base at Subic Bay.

Additionally, China has built an underwater SOSUS network in the South China Sea.

China has all of the advantages in the South China Sea. By waiting too long, it would be foolish now for the United States to start a South China Sea war. Today, the probability of victory favors China.
----------

However, I believe the United States made the right choice.

It is pointless to challenge China in the South China Sea. China's reaction is predictable. China would have reclaimed Outer Mongolia to gain strategic depth against the US threat emanating from the South China Sea. Afterwards, China would have waged a decades-long war (if necessary) to reclaim the South China Sea.

By not militarily challenging China in the South China Sea, the United States removed China's justifications to reclaim Outer Mongolia. China's sovereignty over the South China Sea was always a foregone conclusion. Over the long term, it is not possible to deny Chinese control over the South China Sea.

I think the US came out ahead. China does not have Outer Mongolia. Outer Mongolia is far more valuable than some seawater in the South China Sea.

Good news

Conducting freedom of navigation patrols is not a challenge to Chinese sovereignty over the South China Sea. It is a meaningless gesture.

The United States is basically saying: "We're going to keep waiting until the Chinese Navy becomes larger than the US Navy and then we'll withdraw."

China is engaged in the mass construction of advanced destroyers and nuclear submarines. China is also fortifying its artificial islands. Furthermore, China builds more J-20 fighter every month. The J-31 will be ready in a few more years.

TIME is China's greatest ally. The United States has given China all of the time that it needs. Current US policy is to give China more time.

China has followed Sun Tzu's strategy as it reclaimed the South China Sea. Without fighting a war in the South China Sea, the United States has conducted a soft retreat. The United States had refused the Philippine offer to reestablish the American naval base at Subic Bay.

Additionally, China has built an underwater SOSUS network in the South China Sea.

China has all of the advantages in the South China Sea. By waiting too long, it would be foolish now for the United States to start a South China Sea war. Today, the probability of victory favors China.
----------

However, I believe the United States made the right choice.

It is pointless to challenge China in the South China Sea. China's reaction is predictable. China would have reclaimed Outer Mongolia to gain strategic depth against the US threat emanating from the South China Sea. Afterwards, China would have waged a decades-long war (if necessary) to reclaim the South China Sea.

By not militarily challenging China in the South China Sea, the United States removed China's justifications to reclaim Outer Mongolia. China's sovereignty over the South China Sea was always a foregone conclusion. Over the long term, it is not possible to deny Chinese control over the South China Sea.

I think the US came out ahead. China does not have Outer Mongolia. Outer Mongolia is far more valuable than some seawater in the South China Sea.

Good news