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China tried to undermine economic report showing its ascendancy

Chinese-Dragon

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Financial Times - China tried to undermine economic report showing its ascendancy

May 1, 2014 2:07 pm

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China fought for a year to undermine new data showing it is poised to usurp the US as the world’s biggest economy in 2014 based on purchasing power, according to people who helped compile the report.

The report, released this week by the International Comparison Programme under the auspices of the World Bank, included a line stating that the “National Bureau of Statistics of China has expressed reservations about some aspects of the methodology”. Beijing has declined to publish the headline number for China and the report said that the NBS “does not endorse the results as official statistics”.

But, according to those involved in compiling the data, China’s distaste for the findings went further.

“A year ago, there was a huge debate. China wanted to throw this out. They don’t want to be seen as number one. They’re worried about the political implications with the US,” said one person involved in preparing the report. “They begged and threatened for a whole year . . . China hates it,” he said.


The main reason for China’s lack of triumphalism is that leaders do not want exposure to the international pressure that comes with being the world’s largest economy, according to people familiar with Chinese official views on the matter.

“They certainly don’t want to overstate the size of their economy. They are sensitive about that,” said Vinod Thomas, director-general of independent evaluation at the Asian Development Bank, which played a role in compiling Chinese statistics for the report. “The pushback and sensitivity has been muted publicly but, behind the scenes, it’s been there for sure.”

China’s tightly controlled state media did not mention the latest estimates, which were widely reported outside the country. Beijing has often balked at international estimates showing it has taken the global lead in everything from carbon emissions to energy use.

Taking the title as the world’s largest economy, held by the US since 1872, might be seen as a crowning achievement after three decades of rapid economic growth. However, China’s leaders are wary of the added international responsibility that could come with it.

“On a per-capita basis, China is still a very poor country so it does not want to be asked to do too much on the international stage – at least not yet,” said an adviser to senior Chinese policy makers.

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My comments:

It has always been the ploy of the USA to make China look more powerful than we really are, in order to make us complacent, and in order to play up the "China threat" perception.

However, this game will backfire on them in the end. Since we will never lose sight of our true mission, which is to continue our path of economic development, until we are a developed country.


(Thanks to @qwerrty for finding this report).
 
Exactly!!!! I couldn't have said it better.

And the same naysayers were also claiming that China was keeping the Yuan deliberately undervalued by around 50%. Well by that logic, our Nominal GDP is being understated by 50% well!

I would argue though, that it is actually the USD that is unnaturally strong, due to it being the world's reserve currency, not to mention the fact that oil (and most everything else) is priced in dollars.

Much of America's economic hegemony comes from the strength of the dollar. That's why surpassing American GDP is not enough, we need to displace the dollar as the world's reserve currency, and replace it with a more reasonable/balanced "basket of currencies".

This will naturally correct America's Nominal GDP downwards to a more reasonable level, and successfully challenge their economic hegemony.

This goal can be achieved in 1-2 decades, in an optimistic scenario. But it could take longer. America GDP growth rate now is only 0.1%, but it would be a mistake to underestimate the problems they could still cause for us.

Our economic development is paramount, we must not allow anyone to disrupt us.
 
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Exactly this is how one should be humble about their achievements :tup: Yesterday there was a special report on it on Bloomberg.

Thanks buddy. :cheers:

Though this is not necessarily about being humble.

China is still a developing country. What suddenly prompted the "World Bank" to change their method of calculating GDP, placing China at the top? What is their motivation for thrusting us into the spotlight?

Nothing good I think, they are trying to change perceptions to suit their own goals. Which is why I agree with the Chinese Government trying to shut this report down.

Regardless, these new numbers will not be officially recognized by our National Bureau of Statistics, as the article mentions.
 
No one cares about PPP.
No one cares about PPP kid. Apparently China is going to overtake the US economy in PPP within the next couple of years. But no one in China gives a damn. We care about nominal where we have the purchasing power to buy internationally. We buy our energy and raw materials internationally.

:-)
 
Why are you quoting these posts from Beidou? And from another thread no less?

What relevance does it have to this thread?

In any case, if you read the second paragraph of the article you would see that China does not officially recognize these numbers. We use Nominal GDP data.

Thread is different, but subject is similar, that's why. I thought I will let a Chinese counter a Chinese. :-)
 
Thread is different, but subject is similar, that's why. I thought I will let a Chinese counter a Chinese. :-)

I believe I have made my opinions on Nominal vs PPP more than clear on multiple occasions.

Nominal GDP matters because you cannot ignore the power of currency. America's economic power was built on the dollar.

When the Indian Rupee was created, it was 1 Indian Rupee for 1 US dollar. Now it is 60. That is the strength (buying power) of the dollar, the petrodollar, the world's reserve currency.

And that is why the Chinese government has been trying to shut this report down. Their calculations paint an unrealistic picture of China's place in the global economy. Most likely for some political purposes.

Their "rationale" is that they believe China keeps the Yuan deliberately undervalued, thus they think China's Nominal GDP is significantly understated. This is their response, to use a measure that is not affected by exchange rates.
 
Exactly. :tup:

And LOL at people who kept saying that China was exaggerating our GDP! In fact the pressure is the exact opposite, because China wants to delay being the biggest economy in order to keep the attention off us.

Lacking international pressure and perspective,the provincial governments have been much more honest with their GDP figures than the national government。:D
 
Lacking international pressure and perspective,the provincial governments have been much more honest with their GDP figures than the national government。:D

Exactly right, the anti-China crowd got it the wrong way round. Our national GDP is not being exaggerated, if anything, it is being understated.

For the same reason the Chinese government is so opposed to this World Bank report.
 
Have been saying this for a while but China has been the biggest "real" economy for a while now. Only their pegging of their currency and manipulating of statistics to downplay the size of their economy is the only reason why they have yet to be recognised for what they really are.

I know the anti-China brigade love to jump on any statistical fudging rumor to cry out that China is lying about the size of its economy, but the truth is opposite to what they believe it is. They would love to believe China's economy is weaker than reported but in truth, it is far, far bigger than actually stated. Only on nominal GDP is the USA superior to China but this is only the case because of how each respective country manages its currency. The Dollar holds the World reserve currency status and its value is artificially being propped up by this, whilst China has been suppressing its own currency for decades, to help its exports. This has allowed Americans to buy plentiful cheap Chinese goods and both nations have benefited until now. However, this relationship is now being changed bit-by-bit, as China seeks to diversify away from the Dollar and encourage more trading partners to settle trade in Renminbi and not Dollars. Coupled with China's shift to a more domestic consumption and service-led economy means China wants to increase the value of their own currency to boost the spending power of its own consumers. When this depegging is fully implemented by China, the Renminbi will be many times more valuable than it is now, and in turn, China's nominal GDP will also be many times bigger than it is now. In turn, with China no longer buying Dollars in foreign exchange, the value of the Dollar will fall and steep inflation will kick in for the US. This will stifle any growth in the US economy and may even cause it to shrink.

China is not yet ready to take the USA on, on the World political stage, where the US still has great influence, and they are not militarily ready to take the US head on either. Hence you can understand why China wants to keep their real economic power hush hush until they build up their military and forge political/security alliances that can counterbalance NATO. This is why the US is desperate to pivot to Asia and strangle China, while they think they still can. I think it's a little too late for that now but they can make it as uncomfortable for China as they possibly can. All nations know this is the case now. The smart ones hedge alliance and wait to see how things pan out in the coming decades. The more foolhardy ones like Japan and Philippines are going to be in a World of pain when they realise the US can no longer afford the expensive military presence in Asia, and China will want to test out the weapons they expensively assembled on some disobedient neighbours. The Chinese Government will get plenty of public support for this, especially against Japan.

Chinese hegemony in Asia is a certainty over the coming decades. I don't want to see war in Asia so I would recommend China's neighbours find common ground on disputes now and move forward in peace and friendship, while China is still asking nicely. In a decade or two, China won't need to ask so nicely and these nations will have wished they didn't antagonize China for so long.
 
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