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Biggest deal: IAF may buy 189 jets for $20bn

angeldemon_007

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NEW DELHI: The "mother" could well become the "granny" of all defence deals in the years ahead. India is likely to go in for another 63 fighters after delivery of the first 126 MMRCA (medium multi-role combat aircraft) if the "timelines" for its other fighter development projects are not met, say top defence officials.

When the MMRCA selection process was initiated by the defence ministry in mid-2007, the overall project cost was pegged at Rs 42,000 crore, or $10.4 billion for 126 fighters. But it will zoom well beyond $20 billion, if India eventually decides to opt for 189 jets since inflation is also being factored in. Even with 126 jets, this is the biggest such fighter contract going around the world as of now.

This comes even as MoD is all set to open the commercial bids of the two jets left in the MMRCA fray -French Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon -"within a week or two". Eurofighter Typhoon is backed by the UK, Germany, Spain and Italy,

MoD has already rejected "any scope for comeback" by the other four jets, including the American F/A-18s and F-16s, ejected out of the MMRCA race in April on technical grounds after gruelling field trials.

"We are looking for only 126 fighters. The first 18 jets will come from abroad, while the rest 108 will be manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd after transfer of technology (ToT) from end-2016 or early-2017 onwards," said a senior MoD official on Monday.

"But yes, if the timelines for the Tejas LCA (light combat aircraft) and the stealth Indo-Russian FGFA (fifth-generation fighter aircraft) projects are not met, we will go for more MMRCA to retain IAF's combat edge," he added.

Apart from progressively inducting 272 Sukhoi-30MKIs contracted from Russia for around $12 billion, IAF is slated to induct the first lot of 120 indigenous Tejas from end-2013 onwards. India also hopes to begin inducting 250 to 300 FGFA from 2020 onwards under the joint project with Russia, which rough calculations show will eventually cost India around $35 billion in the decades ahead.

But that is in the future. The request for proposal (RFP) for the ongoing MMRCA competition, issued in August 2007, did have the standard clause of India reserving the option to go in for 50% more fighters, over and above the initial 126, in the coming years.

This, however, is the first time that top defence officials have directly linked the progress in the LCA and FGFA projects to the possibility of exceeding the MMRCA acquisition beyond the first 126 jets.

"Commercial bids of Eurofighter and Rafale will soon be opened, with the reports of the Technical Oversight Committee (TOC) and Technical Offsets Evaluation Committee (TOEC) virtually complete now," said another official.

But it will not be "a cut-and-dried" affair to determine the lowest bidder (L-1). "Calculation of L-1 will take around a month due to the huge amounts of mathematical and data verification of the lifecycle costs of operating the jets over a 40-year period, with 6,000 hours of flying, as well as cost of ToT," he added.

Final commercial negotiations with the L-1 vendor will then begin before the contract is ready for signing by December or January. IAF, on its part, wants deliveries of the 126 fighters to begin from December, 2014, onwards to stem its fast-eroding combat edge. Plans have already been firmed up to base the first MMRCA squadron at Ambala, with subsequent squadrons coming up both in the western and eastern theatres.

Biggest deal: IAF may buy 189 jets for $20bn - The Times of India
 
so if we sign the contract late this year or early next year why would HAL only start mass producing the fighter by late 2016 or early 2017???? 126 fighters will they all be in service before 2020?
 
so if we sign the contract late this year or early next year why would HAL only start mass producing the fighter by late 2016 or early 2017???? 126 fighters will they all be in service before 2020?

I was wondering that too, any timeline on potential deliveries?
 
I was wondering that too, any timeline on potential deliveries?

HAL has to open new lines to produce the MRCAs. Hopefully and most likely the SU30 MKI line will be open by then to start MRCA production and if they add one more line then its kind of doable..But there comes teh question LCA Mk2 line will also be there...so there will be 3 lines to produce a sqd and half of LCA and a Squadron of MRCA...
 
I was wondering that too, any timeline on potential deliveries?

well as per RFP

first aircrafts are to be delivered in fly away condition , from the OEM , within 36 months of signing of contract
after delivery of first batch of 18 aircraft , the OEM is suposed to help Hal in delivering the rest of the aircrafts in the next 48 months

but i am a bit sceptical about this timeline since many people with whom i have talked actually stated that delivery of all 126 aircrafts will be completed by 2021-22 or 2024 if india decides on follow on order
 
more likly time line..thats why India has to focus on LCA to cover up the gaps and get rid of falling mig21s
 
HAL has to open new lines to produce the MRCAs. Hopefully and most likely the SU30 MKI line will be open by then to start MRCA production and if they add one more line then its kind of doable..But there comes teh question LCA Mk2 line will also be there...so there will be 3 lines to produce a sqd and half of LCA and a Squadron of MRCA...

Well Su30 MKI production is expected to continue till 2017-18 coz the idiot babus at HAL said that they will reduce the MKI production rate after 2014 , from 28 aircraft a yr at present to 13 aircrafts a yr in 2015 ,
the reason for this is that they will divert some skilled labor to LCA production line so as to increase its production from 8 aircraft a yr in 2012 to 20 aircraft a yr in 2016-17
also , since MKI upgrade programme will begin in 2013 , some trained engineer and labor will be diverted for this project

thereafter , in 2018-20 MkI production line would be required for FGFA
 
screw that!!!! if we sign the contract this year we'll only see the entire fleet of the MMRCA in the next decade? HAL needs to mass produce the MMRCA starting 2014 not 2016 or 2017 we should produce 30-40 aircraft at each factory built just for the MMRCA the its not like the MiG-21s are getting any younger in fact they're service life will be up by 2017

LCA MK2 will fly in 2014 and be mass produced 2017-2018 so from what i'm seeing here we will only see the full bulk of the MMRCA and LCA MK2 by 2025???? thats 14 years from now :hitwall: :hitwall:

this is what happens when you only have 1 aerospace company in your country ^___^ we should ask TATA and Mahindra aerospace to step in and help out with the manufacturing
 
screw that!!!! if we sign the contract this year we'll only see the entire fleet of the MMRCA in the next decade? HAL needs to mass produce the MMRCA starting 2014 not 2016 or 2017 we should produce 30-40 aircraft at each factory built just for the MMRCA the its not like the MiG-21s are getting any younger in fact they're service life will be up by 2017

LCA MK2 will fly in 2014 and be mass produced 2017-2018 so from what i'm seeing here we will only see the full bulk of the MMRCA and LCA MK2 by 2025???? thats 14 years from now :hitwall: :hitwall:

this is what happens when you only have 1 aerospace company in your country ^___^ we should ask TATA and Mahindra aerospace to step in and help out with the manufacturing

The main trouble with producing so many jets at once is the extral lines cost more, driving up aircraft cost. Plus a short-run is a lot of investment to throw them into dis-use within a few years (along with the employees, defense contracts are not only about defense, but economy too)
 
The main trouble with producing so many jets at once is the extral lines cost more, driving up aircraft cost. Plus a short-run is a lot of investment to throw them into dis-use within a few years (along with the employees, defense contracts are not only about defense, but economy too)

which is why we need to get TATA and Mahindra aerospace involved NAL etc to help manufacture them we need to get all 126+ MMRCA fighters inducted and in service by or before 2020
 
which is why we need to get TATA and Mahindra aerospace involved NAL etc to help manufacture them we need to get all 126+ MMRCA fighters inducted and in service by or before 2020

Dude... this isn't a car where you start a production line and then keep introducing new models. They are talking of ToT. That's going to happen with only 1 company. In this instance the only one with the capability is HAL.
 
Dude... this isn't a car where you start a production line and then keep introducing new models. They are talking of ToT. That's going to happen with only 1 company. In this instance the only one with the capability is HAL.

my friend the terms of the contract to the OEM are very clear to help the company with TOT NAL, or Mahindra aerospace can manufacture with TOT with the help of the OEM they might need to take baby steps at first but its possible, we were able to mass produce supersonic mig-21s with no knowledge of fighter technology but the Soviets helped us at first then we became swadeshi in that field
 

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